一帶一路倡議是中國第五代領導人的政策之一，應該被視為整體戰略的一部分。為了評估一帶一路倡議的實際目的與風險，研究中國地緣政治與社會經濟局勢、前幾代中國領導人的政策（如西部大開發）、現任第五代領導人的政策（如中國夢與四個全面）。雖然並非與其它相關的分析相互排斥，結論指出一帶一路與第五代領導人其它政策具有協同效應、同時面對相對的急迫性，是中國第五代領導人經濟改革、輸出國營企業生產能力過剩、減輕資產泡沫破裂風險的工具之一。 / The Belt and Road Initiative is one corner of the Chinese fifth-generation leadership’s policymaking under the Xi Jinping administration, and should be understood as part of a cohesive whole. This study assesses the BRI, its actual goals, and its risks when analyzed alongside China’s geostrategic and socioeconomic positions, similar policies from previous generations of Chinese leadership such as the Western Development Strategy, and existing concurrent policies from the fifth-generation Chinese leadership such as the Chinese Dream and the Four Comprehensives. While not mutually exclusive with other explanations proposed for the BRI, this study suggests that due to its synergy with existing policies and its exceptional urgency, the fifth-generation leadership primarily uses the BRI as one tool amongst many to accommodate its economic reform, to export the production overcapacity of state-owned enterprises, and to mitigate any risks of an asset bubble collapse.