氣候變遷已然成為國際間急需面對的課題。為了減輕溫室氣體排放量所採取之環境政策工具，不僅需要內國及國際環境法制加以處理，也需要輔以經濟誘因來推動溫室氣體減量工作。開發中國家因經濟成長使排放量急劇增加，包括亞洲主要國家的中國大陸、南韓、日本與台灣等，也開始積極推動碳交易機制。 碳交易機制連結是一種將各國的碳交易機制有組織性地連結而成全球碳交易市場的方式，在目前全球氣候變遷制度談判僵局之下，亞洲國家積極建立推動各國碳交易機制及其法規，亞洲碳交易市場連結發展之可能性成為氣候變遷焦點之一。本文採取文獻回顧法及歸納法，透過檢視分析學者文獻、歐盟、加州與魁北克碳交易機制的連結法規制度，探討連結碳交易機制所需要的法規要素，藉由分析成功的連結經驗，以探討亞洲國家複製歐盟、加州與魁北克碳交易機制連結模式之可行性。 以亞洲國家現今關於碳交易制度的立法規劃來看，目前只有韓國法規具有明確立法連結之相關規定，因此，進而比對韓國連結法規是否已具備足以對外連結之規範及要素，檢視韓國在運行了韓國碳交易機制之後，是否會有對外連結的可能性。台灣雖然已經於2015年通過溫室氣體減量及管理法，並於同年7月生效之，在該法規中有連結之基本概念，但是對於其他如減量階段時程、抵銷詳細規範等，在法規中或其他相關法規中未有具體擘劃。 在面臨亞洲地區一個大型的區域性碳交易市場即將崛起之際，亞洲地區的國家若要發展下一步的連結碳交易機制，在法規制度內須對於對外連結有明確的法律授權，其碳交易機制才有望可發展後續的對外連結。 / In order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, every country should not only construct the international environmental law and country law, but also use economic strategies as assistant. The emission increases sharply because of rapid economic growth in developing countries in Asia. Therefore, major Asian countries including China, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, promote the emission trading system. The emissions trading system is a key tool for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Linking the emission trading systems is an organized way to create a global carbon market. When the global climate change negotiation is deadlocked, a growing number of countries in Asia are integrating cap-and-trade systems into their national climate policies, so that the probability of developing the carbon market in Asia becomes the main issue. This study summarizes and refers to the scholars’ reference materials, the law and regulation of the EU, California and Quebec emission trading systems. The aim of the study is to: (1) generalize the legal and institutional requirements for linking emissions trading systems by analyzing the experiences from the EU, California and Quebec; (2) discuss whether emission trading systems in Asia could be linked. The study concludes that only South Korea has the relevant legislation that authorizes linking with other emissions trading systems in Asia. It is more likely that South Korea emission trading system will establish link to other countries. By viewing and comparing the legal requirements for linking emissions trading system in this study, however, it seems like that there are still some legal challenges for South Korea to be fully prepared for linking with other emissions trading systems in the short term.

「預測市場」以未來事件為交易標的，透過網路平台彙整即時資訊，運用價格來判斷未來事件的發展，此研究方法同時具有「適當獎懲」與「連續修正」兩項特性。 本研究以文獻分析途徑探究預測市場在不同交易機制下的運作方式與市場價格決定過程，並據此分析不同交易機制之間的差異與影響預測市場運作的因素；除此之外，本研究另以個案研究途徑來探討「連續雙向拍賣」與「市場計分法則」兩個交易機制在價格準確度、市場流動性、價格炒作、參與誘因與莊家風險之間的差異。 本研究發現：若交易機制是連續雙向拍賣，則「0-100型」合約價格的預測準確度較高；若交易機制是市場計分法則，則「落點預測型」合約價格的預測準確度較高。連續雙向拍賣機制具有市場流動性不足的問題；市場計分法則機制面臨莊家風險的危機且不適用於市場競爭度高的環境；而上述兩種交易機制皆會出現價格炒作的現象。 / “Prediction market” is a research method based on immediate information collecting and organizing on the internet platform. With future events as the object of transaction, variations of the price of each transaction thus immediately provide the prediction of the development of future events. Therefore, this method has two properties including “appropriate incentives” and “continuous correction”. In this study, document analysis is first conducted to review the operation modes of different trading mechanisms for prediction markets and the process of price making. Accordingly, differences between trading mechanisms and the factors that affect the operation of prediction market will also be analyzed. Furthermore, comparisons of the price accuracy, market liquidity, price speculation, incentives and maker risks between "continuous double auction" and "market scoring rule" are discussed in case study. The findings of this study: if the trading mechanism is “continuous double auction”, the price accuracy of “winner-take-all” contract is higher; if the trading mechanism is “market scoring rules”, the price accuracy of “index” contract is higher. There exists insufficient market liquidity in “continuous double auction;” while in “market scoring rule,” there exists maker risks and it is hard to be applied in highly competitive market. The phenomenon of price speculation exits in both trading mechanisms.