兩兆雙星之液晶面板產業是台灣近期的明星產業。動輒上仟億的投資金額與高技術的進入門檻，卻常承擔著巨額的損失與價格下跌的憂慮。這麼龐大的產業，目前獲利卻相當微薄停止投資又無法延續競爭，原因是整體產業的供需平衡問題一直存在。 液晶面板的應用愈來愈多的新應用產生，也造成面板廠不斷的擴大新世代廠的投資。這需求與供給的平衡交叉點，不斷著因時間、價格在跟著變動著。原本有中、日、韓、三個國家數家面板供應商，到只剩少數指標性廠商還有擴廠的計劃。面板產業目前正處於寡佔競爭的市場局面，如經濟學的賽局理論來分析，這幾家激烈競爭的面板大廠所面臨挑戰，在於各家紛紛投資設廠而造成了供過於求、殺價競爭，產品價格快速下滑等惡性循環的結果。 本研究是就各家面板的現有產能及未來擴產計劃，並考慮到周邊上下游重要零主件，新產品應用及各家廠商市場面的佈局與開發，未來價格走勢，品牌優勢等來探討需求面和市場均衡與液晶週期性，並就新技術發展前景與整體競爭環境及策略發展探討面板業的未來。 台灣的面板產業所謂的面板五虎，從各家的財務獲利、資本支出，到之後的產能規劃與擴建計劃，已經明顯的成為兩個不同層級的競爭態勢與格局。面板產業的規模正在迅速擴張中，面板產業龍頭友達與奇美在公司規模、營收的表現上，已正式超越各家成為產業龍頭。因此本研究以這兩家面板大廠為代表，針對其發展沿革之策略進行分析與比較，以對映台灣面板廠的競爭策略與未來發展。 / The TFT LCD industry is the star business in Taiwan recently. With billions investment and high-tech entry barrier, however, this industry usually suffers huge loss and worries the price drop. So far, the profit rate of LCD is still limit but the new Fab investment can’t be stopped to lose competition in this giant field. The main reason is balance of supply-demand issue still existing in the whole TFT LCD industry. From demand point of view, there are more and more new applications in LCD products; on the other hand, LCD makers must keep investing new Fab in supply. The equilibrium of supply line and demand line has been varied by different timing and various price. The original TFT LCD manufacturers are from Japan, Koran, and Taiwan but only few companies have capability to extend production line. Now, the LCD industry is in the kind of competitive olig-monopolistic market. To analyzing by the game theory of economics, the severe competition among few LCD makers, who bear the critical challenge, have to face up to surplus, price war, and product devaluation due to unbalanced investment. This research is to study the current capacity and their new Fab outputs of all LCD makers as well as to consider vertical and key component sources. Meanwhile, the new application, marketing plan and strategy, future price trend, and brand competence can be reviewed from supply-demand, market equilibrium, and crystal cycling. Further, to study what is the LCD future according to the new strategy, technologic development and competitive environment. Taiwan TFT LCD makers have so-called “Five Tigers”. The LCD business is rapid growing. From each company financial profit, capital investment, capacity plan and new Fab investment, there are two main distinguished level and scale. The leading companies are AUO and CMO, no matter in economic scale, and revenue performance, which are on the top position. This report is also studied these two companies as benchmark to cross-check each company stage and compare each own strategy in order to reflect Taiwan TFT LCD industry and future.

國際能源機構(IEA)每個月的石油報告已經變成預測世界石油供給與需求一個很重要的資源。因此，我們蒐集從1990年10月到2005年12月中國際能源機構所發佈的179次宣告，利用事件研究法來衡量國際能源機構對石油相關市場的影響性。 實證結果顯示，國際能源機構的石油報告的確對石油相關市場傳達重要的資訊；而國際能源機構報告的影響效果似乎會隨著國家的不同而有所不同；在當中，石油的生產和消費量多寡、石油的密集度和油價中稅占的比例都扮演重要的角色；此外，在國際能源機構的報告中，關於預測石油需求變化這方面似乎特別被大家所重視。 / This study examines the impact of International Energy Agency's Oil Market Reports on oil-related prices. The IEA reports, published monthly in Paris, have become the primary source of world oil supply and demand forecasts. We collect 179 announcements that released by IEA over the period October 1990 to December 2005. We analyze the effects of these reports on three oil-related markets, IPE Brent Crude futures, oil industry indices and stock prices of oil companies in six countries. Moreover, we separate the effects of IEA’s forecast changes on oil supply from non-OPEC countries and oil demand from North America and China in IEA’s report. The results confirm that IEA’s reports carry important information source for oil-related markets because more than one half of our sample companies have abnormal returns around the announcement date of IEA’s reports, and we explore these prices respond negatively to the release of IEA’s reports. We also find that the actively traded IPE Brent Crude futures contracts are affected by IEA’s reports, particularly for the change of demand in North America. Forecast changes in IEA’s reports regarding supply in non-OPEC countries, demand in North America and China show that most countries are affected by the changes in these reports. The evidences also show that British and Norwegian oil stock markets react more strongly to the change of oil demand in North America and China. Moreover, we find that participants in the oil market put more emphasis on demand changes reported by IEA, especially for China demand. And we provides empirical evidence that these companies are concerned more about the related releases of decreased demand in North America and increased demand in China. Finally, cross-sectional analysis of cumulative abnormal returns suggests that the reaction of American and Norwegian companies to IEA’s announcements is stronger than other countries, and the change of demand in North America and China and the size variable for individual company contribute to the changes of abnormal returns around IEA’s reports.