無論在電腦動畫、電玩或電影產業，利用電腦自動產生虛擬人群已逐漸成為不可或缺的要素之一。這些虛擬人群，往往是系統先賦與每個虛擬代理人(agent)基礎智能，然後藉由個體之間的互動法則所自動產生。然而，過去因為普遍未考量真實群體情境中的傳播與互動模式，使得虛擬人群所表現的群體行為與現實情況仍有些差距。因此，我們引用社會心理學文獻，建立一個具有溝通機制的人群模擬平台(IMCrowd)，以期自動產生與現實群眾動態更相似的模擬人群。IMCrowd是多代理人(Multi-agent)基礎的系統，其中每個虛擬代理人都具有區域的感知範圍與自主能力，因此他們能夠自動地與環境中的其它物件互動與反應。由於我們為IMCrowd所建立的溝通模型考量了社會心理學的理論，因此虛擬人群能浮現真實群體動態中的社會互動模式，如情緒傳染與從眾效應。本研究以IMCrowd執行了多種情境下群眾暴動與群眾控制的模擬，藉此展現本系統的應用將不僅可提升群體模擬的真實度，亦可做為社會心理學家研究群體行為的工具。 / Using computer to automatically generate simulated crowd has become a trend in animation, computer game, and film productions. Many of these works were produced by modeling the intelligence of the agents in a crowd and their interactions with other nearby agents and the environment. However, the perceived facts or elicited emotions usually do not propagate in the crowd as they should in the real life. In this work we attempt to build up a communication model to simulate a large variety of crowd behaviors including the course of crowd formation. The proposed crowd simulation system, IMCrowd, has been implemented with a multi-agent system in which each agent has a local perception and autonomous abilities to improvise their actions. The algorithms used in our communication model in IMCrowd are based heavily on sociology research. Therefore, the collective behaviors will emerge out of the social process such as emotion contagion and conformity effect among individual agents. Several elaborate riot simulations and riot control simulations are demonstrated and reported in this thesis as the application examples of IMCrowd. Thus, we claim that IMCrowd may not only benefit on enhancing realism of crowd animation but also be useful in studying crowd behaviors such as panic, gathering, and riots.

我國行政院在1982年即訂定《行政院所屬各機關民意調查作業要點》，透過社會科學研究方法的運用，瞭解相關人員對政府施政之意見，以作為政策研擬、評估及提升服務品質與機關內部管理等之參考。隨著1987年宣布解嚴，以及後續政黨政治、公職選舉、媒體發展等等因素，使得民意調查的應用更為廣泛，並且成為台灣民主政治發展歷程中相當重要的一環。同一時期，Sidney Blumenthal於1980年出版《永無止盡選戰》(The Permanent Campaign)一書，指出民選首長當選之後，即不斷為連任作準備，為了達到此一目的，不僅過去的輔選團隊會隨著進入到白宮擔任政治顧問的角色，並且選戰思維也會影響著民選首長的決策作為，讓選戰模式變成是一種治理方式，當中最明顯的特點就是民意調查的執行與應用。 台灣從解嚴之後，選舉次數亦十分地頻繁，從地方到中央，從民意代表到行政首長，儼然已經形成一個相當完整的職涯歷程。為探求我國民選首長就任之後，是否會藉由民意調查機制協助他們解決問題並進行相關的決策，本研究透過次級資料分析法、深度訪談法、民意調查法，針對我們地方政府的民意調查執行及應用情形進行調查。研究發現我國地方政府在民意調查的執行部分受到行政程序及財政狀況之影響，因此不若選舉時期來的有彈性。其次，在民意調查機制的應用部份，受訪者表示對於政策環境的釐清相當具有幫助，可以協助他們決定政策方案的採行。最後，為了瞭解「從眾效應」策略性民調結果的公佈是否會影響到一般民眾既有的認知，本研究透過兩階段民意調查的實驗，分別針對雲林縣、台中市的民眾進行電話民意調查，依據差異分析顯示，無法證實民意調查結果的公佈的確對於民眾既有的認知會造成改變。 / In the field of public opinion polls initiated in the 1930s, seeking collective preferences of citizens and customers for the government and the business sector by means of mail, telephone, or face-to-face interviews has brought about a significant impact on human political and business life in the 20th century. In the 1980, Sidney Blumenthal published the book "The Permanent Campaign". In this book, Blumenthal explained how the changes in American politics from old-style patronage and party organization to that based on the modern technology of computer driven polling created a fundamentally new system. The concept of a permanent campaign describes the focus which recent presidents have given to electoral concerns during their tenures in office, with the distinction between the time they have spent governing and the time they have spent campaigning having become blurred and political consultants had replaced the party bosses and brought with them a new model by which campaigning became the forms of governing. Is campaigning becoming the forms of governing in Taiwan? To answer this questions, this dissertation is beginning with the theory discussion of the perspective of the “permanent campaign” and the “democratic governance”. Then, with the help of the method of interview and secondary data analysis, author discuss the application and limitation of the public opinion poll using in the governance of the local government. Public opinion poll can help the elected leader to find out the problems but it is limited by financial condition of the government itself. The author also designed a two-stage public opinion poll and divided the respondents into experimental group and contrast group. The author hypothesizes that respondents will change their choices because of the impact of “Conformity” and used an evidence-based analysis to testify the hypothesis. Finally, the author gives his conclusion and suggestion.