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台灣太陽光電競標市場研究 / The Study of Solar Energy Bidding Market in Taiwan江柏珊 Unknown Date (has links)
隨著油價上漲,核能發電的安全性受到質疑,越來越多人關注再生能源發電的可行性,而台灣石油及煤礦等天然資源缺乏,再生能源變成可行的替方案。有鑑於此,政府開始透過政策補助以創造再生能源使用的經濟誘因,2009年「再生能源發展條例」通過後,我國綠能發電市場產生重大變化,其中發展最快速的即是太陽能發電市場。由於台灣太陽能產業發展多年,上、中、下游產業鏈佈局已經成熟,以地理環境條件來看,太陽能無論從成本、維護跟可行性來看都是再生能源中最適合於國內深耕的選項,因此在政府提出補助政策後,太陽能發電市場快速活絡起來,太陽能發電成為最新的企業或個人投資管道,形成國內一股安裝太陽光電的熱潮。
本文即以太陽能發電是否為合宜的投資標的為研究目標。首先從觀察市場的角度出發,說明我國太陽光電產業結構、下游發電系統類型、太陽能電廠案件的開發流程,接續介紹競標市場的形成背景、法令依據,並且逐步歸納歷年來補助政策調整對市場所造成的影響以及說明整體政策調整的方向,讓有意於電廠領域深耕之業者能夠對競標市場本質有完整認識。另外,為求找出影響競標市場變化的關鍵因素,本研究也蒐集各期得標資訊,包含折扣率、件數、容量等,用統計圖表方式呈現歷年來各指標變化,觀察競標市場的成長速度、影響折扣率變動之因子以及推論業者的競標策略。最後以目前已完成競標的折扣率資訊和假設的成本條件,試算歷年投資太陽光電的投資報酬率變化,藉此推判現在進入太陽光電競標市場,是否仍然有利可圖?研究結果提供給有意進入此市場的投資人與相關政策制定者作為參考。
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房地產仲介市場交易行為之研究李春長 Unknown Date (has links)
近年來台灣房屋仲介市場可說發展的相當快速,許多賣方和買方常基於成本的考量,而透過仲介公司來買賣房屋。當然,委託給仲介公司來買賣房屋。其中可能主要因素即著眼於縮短交易的時間或者是提高成交的機率,本研究的整個重心將圍繞在賣方的訂價高低(底價)賣屋動機與房屋的屬性來解釋銷售期間和成交機率的高低,並且本文擬得用搜尋理論和代理人理論來詮釋房地產仲介市場的交易行為。
本研究主要分成六章,第一章為緒論。第二章從搜尋理論的觀點來研究訂價與成交價和銷售期間的關係。我們從賣方決定訂價之後,買方會依據訂價要求折扣率,而賣方也會決定一願意給買方的最小折扣率的角度出發,來建構房屋搜尋模型。由理論得知,賣方折扣率底線愈大,則預期銷售期間愈長;銷售期間愈長,則預期賣方折扣率底線愈低;搜尋成本愈大,則預期賣方折扣率底線愈小;買方要求折扣率分配的平均數愈大,則預期賣方折扣率底線愈大。在實證研究上,利用信義房屋仲介公司所提供的資料(1990-1993),以銷售期間和訂價相對於成交價的比例為應變數,採用聯立方程式的方式來估計分析。實證結果發現上述幾項論點皆獲得驗證與支持。
第三章模型同時考慮賣方和仲介業的行為,一方面說明賣方搜尋成本和買方所要求折扣率分配對銷售期間和成交機率的影響,另一方面提供未來修正理論模型的基礎。利用存活分析法(survival analysis)來估計銷售期間。一方面,我們要探究影響房屋交易之銷售期間的可能原因為何?另一方面,我們也想了解銷售期間是否具有時間相依性(time dependence),是否銷售期間越長者,越不易賣出?或越容易賣出?
第四章利用logit模型來估計房屋成交的機率,由於危險模型為純粹之計量模型,而非由理論模型所導出,所以分配之假設將限制其估計模型與理論的關連性,而logit模型則無此問題,因此本研究亦嘗試用logit模型來做估計。
第五章利用代理與搜尋模型來分析賣方和仲介業間的行為關係。不同的仲介收費制度--固定百分比收費(fixed-percentage commission)、定額制(flat-fee)、代銷(consignment sale),對雙方利益衝突的衝擊為何,是否潛藏著嚴重的道德危險(moral hazard)。透過本篇的分析,可瞭解何以固定百分比收費制度是台灣房屋仲介市場的收費趨勢。最後一章為結論與未來研究方向。 / This paper employs search theory to study the re1ationships between the list price, the transaction price,and marketing duration in the Taiwan real estate market.
Theoretically, buyer uses the a set of criteria together,with the listing price to develop an offer which is based on a (guest) minimurn discount rate guideline form the listing price to determine a price that will be acceptable to the seller. We attempt to describe the impact of pricing strategies (seller's minimum discoun rate) and marketing duration by incorporating the minimurn discount rate in a search model. The derived search model indicates the presence of a positbive retalionship between the minimurn discount rate and marketing duration;an inverse relationship beteween marketing duration and munimurn discount rate; an inverse relationship between searching costs and mininurn discount rate; and a positive relationship between the buyer's average discount rate of distribution function and minimum discount rate.
The study uses data collected during the l990-1993 time period and provided by Hsin Yi Realty Co., with the dependent variables being the marketing duration and the ratio of the listing price to the transaction price. A simultaneous equation is developed and used to analyze the following hypotheses: firstly, the higher the ratio of the listing price against the transaction price, the longer it takes to reach the marketing duraion; secondly, the longer it takes to reach the marketing duraion, the higher the ratio of the listing price against the transaction price; thirdly, the longer the period of consignment, the longer it takes to reach the marketing duration; and the fourth,if the seller is not in a hurry to sell,then the marketing duration becomes longer. Our empirical findings verify and support all the above stated analyses.
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322事件看台股期貨市場之流動性風險與系統性風險及短期投資折扣率之估算--從2004年總統大選後張瀞文, Chang, Ching-Wen Unknown Date (has links)
民國93年3月22日,我國期貨市場發生一開盤後隨即跌停,而後無量下跌,引發我國期貨市場產生流動性風險及系統性危機之事件,此事件本研究將之簡稱為「322事件」。本研究首先將透過時間的推進來說明引發322事件之原因、發生經過,以及在此次事件中,為何會引發我國期貨市場之流動性風險及系統性危機之主要原因。本研究發現主要是因為在3月20日總統大選前,大多數的期貨交易人均預期選後的股市會有一波漲幅,故過份建立期貨多頭部位,但是經過了3月19日的槍擊總統一案以及3月20日的選舉爭議,都讓民眾對未來充滿不確定性,以致在3月22日一開盤便委賣遠大於委買,期貨成交量萎縮,期貨交易人損失慘重,保證金嚴重不足,而引發流動性風險及系統性危機。
而後,期貨主管機關為因應金融自由化及國際化,目前正研擬開放多種店頭市場金融商品供期貨商自營操作,但開放後期貨商勢必將承擔更高之市場風險,主管機關應該如何因應成了開放前最重要之課題。資本適足率係主管機關在監理期貨商經營是否健全時的第一道防線,故本研究便建構一新模型,用以估算欲開放之新種金融商品的短期投資折扣率,本研究並以台指選擇權為例,透過本模型估算其最適之短期投資折扣率,結果與目前期貨交易所所規範之40%相去不遠。
最後,本研究提出數點建議,以期未來再度發生類似於322事件時,能夠降低我國期貨市場面臨之流動性風險及系統性危機。同時,也建議期貨主管機關未來在設算金融商品之短期投資折扣率時,能夠依循一具合理原則性之模型估算,避免未來當開放多種金融商品後,產生彼此間原則相抵觸之問題。 / In 2004, Taiwan’s future market suffered both serious liquidity risk and systematic risk. At March 22nd in 2004, the Taiwan Future Index fall down and touched the maximum limit-7% suddenly. The volume of future market was extremely low. This paper called this event as “322 event.”
This paper has two parts. First the paper will illustrate the 322 event. What caused the 322 event? And how the 322 event happened? This paper will seek these answers. We found that the main reasons to cause the liquidity risk and systematic risk are too many investors bought futures. This was because they believed after the 2004 President election, the Taiwan’s stock market would rise to celebrate. At March 19th, the President Chen Shui-Bian encountered a shot murder. At March 20th, some serious dispute took place and made our society was full of insecurity. Investors began concern the stock market would be uncertain. They didn’t buy any futures like before, but in contrast they started to sell it.
The another aspect in this paper is to construct a model. In order to follow up the liberalization and globalization, the government authority plans to open more derivatives for the futures corporations to invest. But how do the government authorities monitor these futures corporations becomes an important lesson. This paper will also seek the answers through constructing a model using VaR model to estimate the short-term investment discount ratio. Then this paper uses Taiwan Stock Option as an example examining whether the model is useful. The short-term investment discount ratio of the stock option by model is 40.89%. This outcome is much closed to 40%, the regulated discount ratio.
Finally, this paper provides several advices in order to diminish the liquidity risk and systematic risk when futures market will suffer what similar to 322 event in the future. And this paper gives some information to supervisors about how to construct a model to estimate the short-term investment discount ratio so that the ratio is ensured following a logical principle.
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