許多國家視生質燃料之發展為解決能源安全問題的方法。大部份的國家往往會訂定一個目標年並設定生質燃料的使用量目標。美國設定2008年時要達到90億加侖生質燃料的使用量目標，而2022年時產量要逐步達到360億加侖；歐盟訂定生質燃料占運輸部門總使用燃料比例於2010年時要達到5.75%之目標；日本設定2010年時其生質燃料產量達到50萬公秉油當量；台灣則是設定生質酒精及生質柴油之2010年使用量分別需達到100-300萬公秉及10萬公秉。各國為達成其生質燃料使用量目標，若僅考慮第一代生質燃料技術，勢必需要足夠的土地種植能源作物，方能滿足生質燃料目標量。可耕地有限的國家若執意發展生質燃料，該國是否有充足的耕地可供生產其設定之生質燃料使用量？若透過國外進口生質燃料或是作物以達成其使用量目標，其在能源安全方面仍是依賴國外供給。此外，生質燃料的發展將造成土地利用改變與農產品價格及產量變動，進而影響全球農業貿易。 本研究應用Hertel(1997)全球貿易可計算一般均衡模型(Global Trade Analysis Project，簡稱GTAP)，並加入土地利用模型，以探討可耕地受限國家發展生質燃料之利基所在，包括糧食供需、貿易與糧價、土地利用、私人家計單位消費、福利等所受到的影響。同時，我們也設計一個指標(Rij)來衡量一國達成其生質燃料發展目標之潛力，並利用該指標篩選出所謂的「可耕地受限國家」作為本研究分析之重點國家。 本研究模擬結果發現，以第一代生質燃料技術作考量之下，「可耕地受限國家」面對各地區生質燃料的發展，將會造成「可耕地受限國家」的農業市場產出、價格與貿易量的變化，例如：可作為提煉生質燃料作物的小麥、其他穀類作物、油脂作物因應各地區生質燃料發展而使得各地區普遍產出增加，而這些作物作為能源用途之需求增加也普遍導致其價格上升。各地區農作物貿易受到國際間相對價格改變之影響，例如：荷蘭的食品與菸酒部門在各地區發展生質燃料後需面對漲幅較國產為大的小麥進口價格，因此，其對國產小麥的需求增幅相對高於對進口品小麥之需求增幅。 本文模擬結果亦顯示：(1)「可耕地受限國家」也面臨農耕地受限制而有生質燃料「與糧爭地」的現象，例如：荷蘭的小麥部門在增加生產過程中，願意支付更高的地租以吸引更多土地投入小麥之種植，因此，排擠掉其他農業部門的土地使用；(2)「可耕地受限國家」之私人家計單位亦間接受到「與人爭糧」的影響，例如：荷蘭的食品與菸酒部門面對小麥的價格上升，其生產成本增加，進而影響其產品價格，最終造成荷蘭私人家計單位對食品與菸酒的消費減少；(3)各「可耕地受限國家」的福利普遍皆降低，例如：義大利福利水準惡化最為嚴重，減少了276.55百萬美元，其次為德國，其福利減少205.5百萬美元。

石化能源逐漸耗竭引人關注，再加上「京都議定書」對溫室氣體排放之全球性管制，促使世界各國重視各種新能源與替代性能源，並積極投入應用與研究開發。生質燃料已成為全球許多國家的戰略性資源，其發展除可開發自產綠色能源，提高能源自主比例，並能結合能源、農業、環保、產業等共同發展。面對全球生質燃料產業急速成長，台灣自不能自外於節能減碳的永續發展趨勢。 為驗證政府推動生質燃料政策的環境條件及業界投入狀況，本研究以次級資料分析方法進行國內、外之發展現況及趨勢分析；透過學者、專家、政府業務執行主管及業者之深度訪談，藉由訪談之資料歸納國內發展情形，對照現有生質燃料政策推動目標之發展模式，並以五力分析架構及SWOT評估方法評估生質燃料產業發展之競爭力。 本研究的主要發現包括：1.影響我國生質燃料的發展，最主要的關鍵要素是料源成本、價格補貼及市場保證；2.在推廣生質燃料的策略作法上，絕大多數主張應依政府政策規劃目標循序漸進推動；3.業者在發展生質燃料過程中，面臨最大的困難在於政策的不確定及原料的掌握不足；4.產業發展初期仍應以國內產製優先，不足部分再開放進口；5.生質柴油料源中，目前以廢食用油最具價格競爭力，麻瘋果油次之，藻類則是長期看好的料源。生質酒精部分，依國內廠商最可行技術而言，以甘蔗酒精較具價格競爭力，狼尾草居次，纖維素作物則是長期看好者。6.現階段的政策目標，在生質柴油部分的推廣比例仍以B2為佳，生質酒精則以E3為國產料原的最大量。長期來看，生質燃料產業的擴展，一定要以非糧食作物為優先，關鍵環節在於纖維酒精技術及藻類開發技術有突破，推廣比例及市場規模才有再擴張的空間。 就研究分析所得，提供下述政策建議：1、政府需訂定明確的政策目標；2.成立再生能源國家型計畫，加速推動生質燃料發展；3.政府率先投資第二代生質燃料產業；4.需建構生質燃料永續發展的制度性設計；5.確立以本國產製為優先之政策宣示；6.強化節能減碳教育宣導，讓消費者建立信心並接受。在業界策略上建議：1.必須提升料源掌握度與開發多元料源，並降低生產成本；2.業者須加強與通路商籌組供油策略聯盟；3.生質酒精業者可採合資或合作生產方式切入市場，取得先占地位；4.積極參與第二代生質燃料的研發與技術銜接。 / Petrochemical energy shortage is an issue that has been gradually gaining attention. Global regulation of greenhouse gases emission set by the Kyoto Protocol has also called attention to new and alternative energy sources, as well as the active involvement of individual countries in new energy application and research development. Biofuel has now become a strategic resource in many countries. Additional development of alternative energy can not only help increase the amount of domestic green energy and its ratio to traditional energy, synergy is also created causing the equal development of energy, agriculture, environmental production, and industrial growth. In face of the rapid growth of the biofuel industry worldwide, Taiwan must not exclude itself from the trend of sustainable development in energy conservation and CO2 reduction. To access the conditions of government policy in biofuel promotion and industry involvement, this study used secondary data analysis methods to analyze the current trend and status of national and international development. Through information gathered from in-depth interviews with academics, experts, government executives, and industry members, current domestic developments are compared to existing models of biofuel policy, promotion, and objectives. The competitiveness of biofuel industry development is further evaluated using SWOT assessment and Five Power Analysis. The main findings of this study include the following: 1) The key elements affecting national biofuel development are raw material costs, price subsidies, and market guarantees. 2) In biofuel promotion strategies, a vast majority should be made gradually and according to government policy planning objectives. 3) In biofuel development, the biggest challenges the industry faces are policy uncertainties and the lack of raw materials. 4) In initial industry development, domestic production should be a priority, allowing imports only when in demand. 5) In raw materials for bio-diesel, recycled oils are currently the most competitive in value, followed by Jatropha oil, while algae is seen as having long-term potential. According to the most viable technology offered by domestic manufacturers, sugarcane ethanol is the most competitive in value for bio-ethanol, followed by Chinese Pennisetum, while agricultural waste is seen as having long-term potential. 6) In the current stage of policy objectives, B2 is still more adequate in the promotion of bio-diesel, and E3 is the main domestic raw material for bio-ethanol. In the expansion of biofuel industry in the long run, priority must be given to non staple crops, while the key lies in cellulosic ethanol and algae oil development technology. Only then can there be room for further expansion in promotional proportion and market scale. The following policy recommendations are provided based on analysis of the study: 1) Clear policy goals must be set by the government. 2) Establish nation-wide plans for renewable energy, and accelerate the promotion of biofuel development. 3) Government must take initiatives in second-generation feedstock investments. 4) A systematic design must be built for the sustainable development of biofuel. 5) Policy declarations must be made to ensure the priority of domestic production. 6) Strengthen education in energy conservation and CO2 reduction, and build consumer confidence and acceptance. Recommendations for industry strategies: 1) It is essential to increase control of raw materials, develop multi-source materials, and lower production costs. 2) The industry must strengthen its strategic alliances with distributor in oil supply. 3) The biofuel industry may partake in joint ventures or cooperative efforts to get a head start when entering the market. 4) Actively participate in the research and development and technology adaptation of second-generation feedstock.