本研究以臺灣地區各區域經濟成長不均衡之現象為出發點，探討推動臺灣 地區經濟成長之製造業於中部地區之發展情形，試圖尋求有利於中部地區 發展之產業，以帶動中部地區之經濟成長，縮短區域間發展差距。研究內 容主要係利用集中係數、雜異化係數分別探討各類製造業分佈地區集中分 散趨勢及地區內製造業發展動向；以區位商數探究地區之基礎產業，以相 對成長分析比較各業別於區域及全國之相對成長速度；並結合移轉分配法 得出各地區之主力產業及深具發展潛力之區，最後，配合區域投入產出分 析與未來產業發展政策，決定一組利於中部地區發展之產業。研究發現中 部地區製造業之分佈有逐年分散之趨勢，且各鄉鎮市區製造業結構亦傾向 雜異化。較有利於中部地區發展之產業為金屬製品業、橡膠製品業、運輸 工具業、精密器械業及電機器材業等。而各地區製造業之發展潛力則與工 業區之設置有密切關係，可知地方之發展多需藉助政府力量方能達成。 Because of unequilibrium growth phenomenon of Taiwan area the purpose of this thesis is to study the manufacturing development in Central region . Study is intended to discuss some manufactur- ing that suitable for Central region to develop for the purpose of pushing regional economic growth. The methodlogy consists of coefficient of concentration ，co- efficient of diversification，location quotient ，relative growth analysis，shift-share analysis and input-output analysis etc. . These methods are applied to analysis the structure change and spatial distribution of manufacturing in Central region. The findings show most of manufacturing industries are slowly deconcentrated in Central region during the past fifteen years . The relationship between manufacturing development and the estab- lishment of industrial park in Central region is very important. As a result，regional development is very often dependent on government investment.

近年來以電子資訊產業掛帥的台灣，傳統產業似乎成了被遺忘一個部分。但透過許多相關產業的調查資料顯示，部分傳統產業在全球化的競爭底下，依舊可在台灣立足，汽車業與船舶業就是其中的代表。由產業群聚的觀點來看，產業與其關聯產業在空間中的關係為何，產業是否集中於某些特定的空間單元，皆為值得討論的課題。 為對汽車業及船舶業進行分析，本研究透過產業關聯分析以及地理資訊系統之熱點分析（hot spot analysis），並結合工商普查資料、產業關聯表、生產者投入係數，進行空間集中指標的計算，從時間序列的變化，瞭解不同時間點運輸製造業的主要關聯產業之差異及其群聚版圖的變遷，並且進一步探討運輸製造業產業群聚之水平連結在空間臨接上所產生之差異。 研究結果顯示在1981年至2001年間，汽車業與船舶業在既有的空間單元中保持穩定的成長，僅北部區域的汽車業集中重心由台北移至桃園，此種情況即代表產業群聚的區位惰性。此外，船舶業在空間單元中有集中於鋼鐵業以及港口周邊的情況；汽車業與其主要關聯產業則都集中在桃園新竹一帶。 / In recent years, Taiwan taking electronics and information industries as main development, the traditional industry seems to become a part forgotten. But show through the survey materials of a lot of relevant industries, some traditional industries that under the competition of globalization, can still base on Taiwan, the automobile industry and shipping industry are representatives among them. In the view point of industry clusters, what are the spatial relationship between industry and its related industries, whether the industry concentrates on some specific space units, all in order to worth discussing. In order to analysis the automobile industry and shipping industry, this research passes the industry linkage analysis, hot spot analysis of geographic information system, and combine the industry, commerce and service census, input-output table, input coefficients table at producers' prices, to make the calculation of spatial concentration index, and from the view point of time series, to find out the difference of main related industries, the change of cluster map, and further more, to discuss the spatial relationship between industry and its main related industries. The result of study shows between 1981 and 2001, the automobile industry and shipping industry keeps steady growth with in the space unit that has already had, only the automobile industry of the northern area concentrates center on being transferred from Taipei to Taoyuan, this kind of situation represents the inert of location of industry clusters. In addition, shipping industry centre in nears the steel industry and port; the automobile industry and its main related industries are mostly concentrated in Taoyuan and Hsinchu.

台灣夏季高溫酷熱使得各產業夏月用電量較全年月平均高出5%~24%。台電公司發電機組的備轉容量率在過去幾年的夏季也多次逼近限電警戒值(6%)。在未來氣候變遷趨勢下，夏季極端高溫發生機率提高，發電容量因受環保及社會因素影響難以同步擴充，限電極可能成為台灣在夏季必須面對的挑戰。本文旨在建構一描繪台灣經濟體內所有生產及消費部門相互依賴連結的線性規劃產業關聯分析(linear programming input-output analysis,簡稱LPIO)模型，用以求解經濟成長過程中若遇夏季供電瓶頸時之可行產業最適用電配置(限電)策略——限制用電之產業組合及配比。 根據現實情況所需以決定策略，首先策略的考量為追求經濟成長，加上當前台灣為一加工出口國，應將主要出口品之部門列為供電瓶頸的考量之一。接著，評估所有產業之間的相關性，單一產業的成長可帶動其他產業的發展；反之，單一產業的損失影響亦會衝擊其他產業，因此需要了解產業間的投入產出關係才能制定對我們經濟最有效率的資源配置策略。本研究首創以「夏季模擬產業關聯表」來校準LPIO 模型之模擬，切合實際地反映產業的季節性投入需求，以提升總體多部門模型之應用分析在政策制定參考上的實用性。 結果顯示若出口部門之VAEE能得到提升，則可以於供電瓶頸時期既維持出口市場的成長，GDP的成長亦不需要犧牲，因此出口部門應該以其在國際市場所占有的優勢，回饋於國內生產技術，降低其產品內含電力之使用，則可於供電瓶頸時減少對經濟體中其他部門的限電壓力。然而，出口部門其勞動投入佔原始投入的比重較小，因此當優先出口發展的同時亦應該考慮的國內勞動力的問題。各產業之間勞動份額的改變程度大小，以培養未來可得到良好發展之產業所需的勞動力投入。

房地產業的活動被一般人認為是「火車頭產業」，探究這種未經學術嚴謹定義的說法，涵意概有兩層：其一是認為房地產業有極大的「向後關聯」效果，將可帶動相關總體經濟產業的發展。另一層涵意是指房地產業既然有帶動總體經濟繁榮成長的功能，也就意味著房地產業活動所構成的房地產景氣具有領先總體經濟景氣的特質，而為一般景氣昇沉的預期訊號。惟這種說法似乎與現實情況不合：現總體經濟景氣已有復甦跡象，但房地產業卻相對的毫無起色，因此本研究從「房地產業對總體經濟活動之影響分析」、「房地產景氣與總體經濟景氣在時間上領先、同時、落後關係之探討」兩部份，分別以較嚴謹的「產業關聯分析法」與「景氣綜合指標分析法」，來探討該說法的正確性及政策等含意，獲得「尚無充份的證據支持房地產業是火車頭產業」的結論。 　　有關政策涵義方面：房地產業的向後關聯效果不強，意味著政府如意圖以房地產業為振興經濟的逆循環政策應改變至回歸市場機制的調控，而不應有太多的政策介入。政府不必因總體經濟的不景氣而企圖刺激房地產景氣；亦無須強調總體景氣過熱而打壓房地產景氣。至於「房地產景氣與總體經濟景氣在時間上領先、同時、落後關係」部份，不論房地產綜合、各層面、基準循環指標之景氣與總體經濟綜合、構成房地產綜合景氣重要指標時間上關係比較中，我們有足夠的證據認為「房地產景氣落後總體經濟景氣」。在預測上的涵意是若干重要總體經濟指標可以用來預測房地產景氣未來的走勢。 / The fluctuation in the real estate market is of long-standing, and has evoked much discussion, particularly how the real estate activities and cycles are related to macroeconomics has been an important issue drawing tremendous attention in Taiwan. This research contains two parts : in the first part, we have applied the method of lnput-Output(I/O) analysis to identic the backward linkage of the real estate sector. In the second part, we try to use the method of composite indexes of business cycle for real estate cycle indicators, including individual activities, four different stages of real estate life cycle -- investment, construction, transaction, and utilization, to clarify the " timing " relationship between business cycle and real estate cycle. 　　Based on the economic analysis, the results of this research are following : 　　1. We have not found strong evidence supporting the important backward linkage of the real estate sector. It means, in the view of using real estate activities for pushing macroeconomics, the government should not intervene the activities of real estate industry to market mechanism due to the effect of real estate activities contribute little feedback to macroeconomics. 　　2. Our investigation reveals the macro-variables, such as GDP, M2, the index of stock market, CPI, composite index etc. , tend to be leading indicators of real estate activities over twelve months approximately. This means, in the view of forecasting, we can use certain macro-variables to forecast the trend of real estate cycle in the fliture.