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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

空間自相關模型下空間群聚檢定 / Spatial Clusters in a Global-dependence Model

王泰期, Wang, Tai Chi Unknown Date (has links)
因為疾病空間模式通常會與環境中的危險因子有很強烈的關聯性,因此流行病學家與社會大眾都對疾病的空間模式感到興趣。舉例來說,空間群聚就是一項非常受到重視的疾病空間模式,在眾多的空間群聚檢定方法種,Kulldorff和 Nagarwalla在1995年提出的空間掃描統計量是相當受到廣泛應用的方法,雖然這個統計方法可以檢定初空間資料的異質性,但是卻沒有辦法區隔這些異質性是來自於整體空間資料的相關性或是局部的空間群聚。在本篇論文中,我們將分別提出計次型的統計方法與貝氏統計方法兩種類型的空間群聚檢定方法來處理這樣的問題,其中計次型的統計方法為一兩階段的統計方法,首先採用EM演算法來估計空間自相關,並根據估計的結果與掃描窗格在偵測空間群聚;另一方面,貝氏方法則考慮加入群聚的中心位置及半徑作為事前的機率分布,進而透過MCMC的方法來計算出後驗分布的結果。除此之外,北卡羅來納的嬰兒猝死症和台灣老年人口癌症死亡資料將被用來示範與評價不同群聚檢定方法的差異與效果。
2

焦點檢定方法比較 / A simulation study for evaluating focused tests of cluster detection

蔡丞庭 Unknown Date (has links)
臺灣的癌症發生率及死亡率有連年增加的趨勢,研究指出原因可能與環境中的污染物質有關,檢測可能的污染源附近是否存在癌症群聚(Cluster),將有助於未來的癌症防治。在空間統計(Spatial Statistics)有不少方法可用於檢測群聚現象,其中用來檢測某個特定位置周圍是否發生群聚的方法被稱為焦點檢定(Focused Test),本文介紹及評估常用的焦點檢定方法,並使用較佳方法探討臺灣地區疑似污染源的地區。 首先本文使用電腦模擬,在不同情境假設下比較焦點檢定方法的檢定力(Power),例如研究區域大小、群聚形狀等不同的情境,以判斷檢定方法之間的優劣。最後本文分析臺灣鄉鎮市(Township)層級癌症死亡資料,應用焦點檢定方法分析石門核一廠、恆春核三廠及麥寮六輕周圍的癌症死亡率,檢定結果發現核一廠及麥寮六輕附近有較高的癌症死亡率。 / The cancer incidence and mortality rate in Taiwan have been increasing over the past 30 years. Previous studies indicate that the pollution sources, especially for those creating air pollution and excess radiation, are one of the potential causes for the increment. Correctly, detecting the location of possible sources of contaminants can help for cancer prevention. In spatial statistics, focused test can be used to determine if the intensity rate are higher around a possible pollution source. We will introduce and evaluate frequently used focused tests and apply them in Taiwan. First we use computer simulation to compare the power of focused tests in different scenarios, such as study region and cluster shape. Next, we apply the focused tests to Taiwan cancer mortality data, in order to decide if the cancer mortality rates are higher around Chinshan nuclear power plant, Maanshan nuclear power plant, and Mailiao sixth naphtha cracker. The results show that the cancer mortality rates around Chinshan nuclear power plant and Mailiao sixth naphtha cracker are significantly higher.

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