近年來由於政府實施無紙化及金融業者推行電子帳單的成效卓越，使得國內郵件的收寄量逐年下滑，郵局如何與民營業者競爭國內物流市場並達成盈餘目標，成為營運中不可忽視之因素。 傳統的郵局設點多依據公司規定與配合政府政策需求，甚少採用涉及複雜因素之區位分析進行選址。因此，如何有效且公正地評選郵局新設據點以提高收益，成為亟待解決之問題。 本研究目的在於提供高收益之郵局設點建議，我們提出一種評估中華郵政公司設點效益的方法，以國內郵局實際設點位置與相關空間資料來建置實驗模型。研究結果顯示，以本研究方法建立之預測模型可成功的提供中華郵政公司建議於何處新增據點可收最大功效。 我們首先蒐集中華郵政公司設點之鄰近區域資料，如競爭者設點數、人口因素、重要交通路口、郵件收寄量等。其次導入資料探勘技術分析影響郵件收寄量之因素，建立中華郵政公司設點收寄量預測模型。然後依照建立預測模型時所得到之區辨力分數，判斷採用何種資料探勘技術建立預測模型較適當。最後將所選定的預測模型套用於台北縣市各村里建物重心，透過環域資料分析以計算預估之收寄量，再整合各資料探勘技術之預測結果後推論出最佳設點建議。 實作中，以台北縣市資料來測試我們的方法。實驗數據顯示，我們的方法成功地找出十一個建議設點的村里，可提供給中華郵政公司作為高收益的設點建議。 / The amount of postal mail declines in recent years due to the efforts of paper-reduce policies implemented by the government, the industries, and the general publics. It becomes one of the important issues of the Chunghwa Post Company, to compete with other companies in domestic freight and mail services and to achieve the desired profits. Traditionally, the location of post offices were decided according to the government policies as well as the company regulations. The issues involved in the site selection analysis were seldom considered. Hence, developing an effective and fair mechanism to find the new post office locations that could improve the company’s surplus becomes an important problem to be solved. The purpose of this thesis is to provide recommendations to the post office site selection which will yield high profit to the company. We proposed a method to evaluate the effective profits that could be produced by a particular post office through the data mining techniques and the related GIS information. We first collect various data, such as neighborhood population, traffic flow, postal mail received at particular post office, competitor’s information, etc., and analyze these data using data mining techniques in order to establish prediction models. The most appropriate model was chosen to find the new post office sites. The Metropolitan Taipei area was chosen to illustrate our idea. The best sites for new post offices were selected through the buffering analysis as well as the data mining techniques. The experimental results show that our method can successfully find eleven locations which could generate most profit to Chunghwa Post Company if the new post offices were located in these places.

近年來由於銀行自動櫃員機(ATM: Automatic Teller Machine)的方便性導致ATM需求大幅增加，銀行因此必須投入可觀之設置與維護費用，然而卻缺乏有效的方式評估ATM設點位置與相關經濟效益。傳統的ATM設點多依據決策者之經驗與主觀需求，甚少考慮涉及複雜因素之空間選址問題，因此如何合理且有效地選取ATM設置據點以提高經濟效益，成為亟待解決之問題。 本研究目的在於提供高經濟效益之ATM設點建議，作為決策者參考。我們以地理資訊系統結合資料探勘技術，進行ATM設點分析。首先從ATM使用率，透過地理資訊系統技術結合空間與屬性資料。其次導入資料探勘技術分析影響ATM設點之因素，求取設置據點的綜合效益，取得影響因素與設置據點效益之關聯性並產生設點規則。最後將此規則應用於地理資訊系統圖層分析中，推論出設點建議。 我們以國內銀行實際ATM設點位置與其營業資料來展示我們的方法，實驗結果顯示我們可成功的分析影響ATM效益的主要因素，指出影響因素的明確距離及數量分佈，提供決策者分辨原始ATM是否該遷移或裁撤，同時亦能提供建議是否該於潛在客群分佈區域設立新據點。 / The convenience of the ATM banking facilities caused rapidly increasing in ATM demands during the past decades. The expenses for installation and maintenance of the ATMs are considerably high. However, there are no effective methods to evaluate the economic benefits on ATMs’ locations. Traditionally, the decision for ATM installation is based on policymaker’s experiences and subjective demands. The cost-effective issues and the spatial factors involved in location finding were seldom considered. Hence, develop a reasonable and effective mechanism to find the ATM locations that could improve economic efficiency become an important problem to be solved. The purpose of this thesis is to provide suggestion on the cost-effective ATM installation locations to help the policymaker in making decisions. We combine the techniques in geographical information system (GIS) as well as data mining for the cost-effective ATM installation location analysis. Using the ATM utilization factors for various ATMs, we can associate the attribute data with the spatial provided by GIS. Then, we use data mining techniques to analyze the factors that could influence the cost-effective installation location of ATMs. From this information, we can summarize the association rules that have the most impacts to localize the ATM installation locations. Finally, using these association rules, we can reach conclusion on ATMs’ installation locations. We use our local bank data to illustrate our idea. Experimental results show that we can successfully find the key factors that influence the cost-effective ATM installation locations. The range and the quantities of these events can be identified clearly, hence, making it possible to suggest whether an ATM should be removed or be relocated. Furthermore, we can suggest installing a new ATM at a particular location for potential customers or not.

本論文探討台北市連鎖式便利商店的市場進入決策。研究發現在便利商店的產業裡，相較於多重市場接觸(亦即是否已同時出現在其他市場)的考量，與競爭對手門市的距離對廠商的進入決策有較大的影響。此外，上期競爭對手存在與否，也是廠商是否進入該市場的重要衡量依據。大型連鎖店會進入前一期競爭較激烈的市場，這些市場競爭對手的門市已有一家以上；而小型連鎖店通常不會依據對手的門市數目來決定其進入的決策。最後，利用不同的落後期變數設定，本文發現廠商的進入決策具有一致性。這表示在台北市，便利商店已經是相當成熟的產業了。 / In this paper we study entry decisions of the convenience store chains in Taipei. We find that the distance between store pairs is more relevant to firms' entry decisions than the multimarket contact (i.e., firms encounter each other in multiple markets) in this industry. In addition, the presence of a firm's rivals in the previous period plays an important role in the entry decision. The large convenience store chains are more likely to enter more competitive markets, such as markets consisting of more than one rivals' store. On the other hand, the small chains are indifferent to their rivals' presence when making their entry decisions. Lastly, firms' entry decisions are consistent when different measurements of lagged variables are used. We interpret that the convenience store industry may have reached a stable state in Taipei.