本研究利用離散時間涉險模型，分析台灣上市公司之多角化程度、公司治理與財務危機之關係。本研究分為三階段逐步加入多角化程度變數、公司治理與多角化程度之交叉相乘項及控制變數。首先探討相關或非相關多角化程度是否與公司發生財務危機之可能性具有關聯性。接著納入公司治理之考量，探究公司治理、相關或非相關多角化程度與公司發生財務危機可能性間之關係。 實證結果顯示，無論是相關多角化或是非相關多角化均可顯著降低公司發生財務危機之可能性。當納入公司治理之考量後，實證結果顯示，當公司的董監質押比率、控制股東持股比率、關係人進貨比率、關係人融資比率、席次控制比率、董事席次等6項公司治理指標愈差時，公司的相關多角化程度愈高，發生財務危機的可能性也會提高；而當公司的控制股東持股比率、關係人進貨比率、關係人融資比率、席次控制比率、董事席次等5項公司治理指標愈差時，公司的非相關多角化程度愈高，發生財務危機的可能性也會愈高。 / This study employs discrete-time hazard model to investigate how the distress-diversification sensitivity is moderated depending on the level of corporate governance in nested models which sequentially incorporate diversification and then corporate governance as a moderator. The findings show that diversification reduces the possibility of financial distress while corporate governance moderates the diversification effect on financial distress.

本研究將財務危機分為『經營不善型財務危機』以及『舞弊型財務危機』兩種類型，運用離散時間涉險方法，探討何種公司治理與財務資訊最有可能發生舞弊型的財務危機。同時本研究也探討財務危機對負債比率的敏感性如何受到公司治理中介變數的影響。 實證結果發現當公司治理機制情形不好，但財務報表資訊良好時，發生舞弊型財務危機的可能性將大於經營不善型的財務危機。而財務危機對負債比率的敏感度會受到公司治理中介變數的影響。 / With financial distress being classified as operating-failure financial distress and fraud financial distress, this study employs discrete-time survival model to characterize the fraud financial distress by corporate governance and financial performance. It also investigates the moderate effect of corporate governance on the sensitivity of financial distress to debt ratio. The empirical results indicate that companies with weak corporate governance and good financial performance are more likely to encounter fraud financial distress than operating-failure financial distress. In addition, corporate governance positively moderates the sensitivity of financial distress to debt ratio.

財務危機模型的研究一般納入財務正常公司與財務危機公司兩者當樣本，探討區分危機與正常公司的因素，本研究則進一步以財務危機公司為樣本，探討在財務危機公司中區分舞弊公司與正常經營公司的基本因素。 本研究從財務危機公司中，分出財務舞弊公司與正常經營公司，因此研究樣本包含發生舞弊的財務危機公司與正常經營而發生財務危機的公司。研究變數則從文獻篩選23個財務解釋變數，以及13個公司治理解釋變數，運用羅吉斯迴歸法進行實證，結果顯示3個財務變數和1個公司治理變數在區分財務危機公司中的財務舞弊公司與正常經營公司有顯著的區別能力，公司治理變數的董監事持股比率尤其顯著。 / Financial distress prediction is usually based on both financial distressed firms and non-distressed firms. Based on financial distressed firms, this study further investigates the factors distinguishing financial fraud firms from non-fraud firms. The sample includes fraud and no-fraud firms while both are financial distressed. Twenty-three financial and thirteen corporate governance variables are surveyed from literature. The empirical result of logit regression shows that three financial variables and one corporate governance variable are significant factors in distinguishing fraud from no-fraud firms in distressed companies. Especially, the percentage of holding stocks of board of directors is the most significant variable.

1999年新巴塞爾協定規定鼓勵銀行採用內部信用評等法(internal ratings based approach)，以衡量貸款者無法償還之風險以計提最低資本。為因應此一授信風險控管之需要，銀行亟需建立一套有效之財務危機預警系統，以判定銀行授信客戶發生財務危機之機率。 本研究運用羅吉斯迴歸分析(logistic regression analysis)與離散時間涉險分析(discrete-time survival analysis)分法於三種相互具有巢狀式關連性之財務危機預測模型，逐步加入財務、非財務及公司治理變數，以便在同一種分析方法下比較三種模型，以及在同一種模型下比較兩種分析方法。實證結果顯示，就樣本期間內而言，同一種分析方法下模型之財務危機預測能力，隨著不同種類解釋變數之加入而逐步提高。然而，就樣本期間外而言，同一種分析方法下模型之財務危機預測能力，並未隨著不同種類解釋變數之加入而逐步提高，但分類能力皆十分優良；而在同一種模型下離散時間涉險分析方法之整體分類能力皆高於羅吉斯迴歸分析方法。 / The 1999 Basel II Accord suggests banks measure the impossibility of reimbursement of debtors to calculate capital minimums by internal ratings-based approach. To reduce the credit risk, it is important that banks construct accurate financial distress prediction systems to determine the probability of financial distress of debtors. This study employs logistic regression and discrete-time hazard analysis to construct nested models to which the financial, non-financial, and corporate governance corporate variables are added step by step. I therefore make comparison of the performance of three models under logistic regression and discrete-time hazard analysis, respectively. Meanwhile, the comparison of the performance of logistic regression and discrete-time hazard analyses under each of three models is also made. The empirical results show that the in-sample predictive ability of financial distress is enhanced by gradually incorporating different kinds of variables in both analyses. Although the out-of-the-sample predictive ability of financial distress is not improved by gradually incorporating different kinds of variables in one analysis, the model performance is quite well overall. The entire discriminability of discrete-time hazard analysis is better than logistic regression under each model.

本研究將財務危機分為『經營不善型財務危機』以及『掏空型財務危機』兩種類型，運用離散時間涉險方法，分析公司在不同財務狀況以及公司治理機制下，發生『經營不善型財務危機』的可能性。另外，本研究也探討『經營不善型財務危機』對公司獲利能力的敏感性，是否也受到公司治理的影響。 以民國85-94年上市櫃公司為研究對象，實證結果顯示當公司治理機制強，而財務狀況弱時，最有可能發生『經營不善而非掏空型』財務危機。再者，公司治理機制，會增強財務危機對財務狀況的敏感程度。 / This study classifies financial distress into two types: operating-failure financial distress and fraud financial distress. Based on business performance and corporate governance while employing discrete-time survival model, it analyzes the probability of the operating-failure financial distress. Furthermore, this study also examines if the sensitivity of operating-failure financial distress to profitability is moderated by corporate governance. Firms listed in Taiwan Stock Exchange during 1996-2005 are selected as sample. The empirical results indicate that firms with good corporate governance and bad business performance are most likely to encounter operating-failure financial distress. Furthermore, the corporate governance moderates the sensitivity of the operating-failure financial distress to profitability.