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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

預測競賽, 解釋預測機構的行為 / Explaining forecasters' behavior: sequential forecast contest

黃柏鈞, Huang, Po Chun Unknown Date (has links)
Paradoxically, pepole avoid being totally the same with others to keep their uniquness but follow the fads to avoid isolation. We construct a simple model under this concept to explain the empirical findings of forecasters’ behavior such as old forecasters are more radical and late forecasters tend to anti-herd. We show that forecasters' forecasts are not necessarilly unbiased when they consider the benefit of making correct forecasts and the cost of being wrong. Furthermore, we extended our model and show that when uninformed agent cannot differentiate which informed agents is better, she chooses mean of the two experts' opinions when the difference of the opinions is small but choose randomly from the two experts' opinions when the difference is big.

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