The main objective of this study was to quantitatively explore the connection between network structure and network effect and its impact on transit usage as seen through the real-world experience of the Toronto and Melbourne transit systems. In this study, the comparison of ridership/capita and mode split data showed that Toronto’s TTC has better performance for the annual data of 1999/2001 and 2006. After systematically investigating travel behaviour, mode choice factors and the various evidence of the network effect, it was found that certain socio-economic, demographic, trip and other design factors in combination with the network effect influence the better transit patronage in Toronto over Melbourne. Overall, this comparative study identified differences that are possible explanatory variables for Toronto’s better transit usage as well as areas where these two cities and their transit systems could learn from one another for both short and long term transit planning and design.

The main objective of this study was to quantitatively explore the connection between network structure and network effect and its impact on transit usage as seen through the real-world experience of the Toronto and Melbourne transit systems. In this study, the comparison of ridership/capita and mode split data showed that Toronto’s TTC has better performance for the annual data of 1999/2001 and 2006. After systematically investigating travel behaviour, mode choice factors and the various evidence of the network effect, it was found that certain socio-economic, demographic, trip and other design factors in combination with the network effect influence the better transit patronage in Toronto over Melbourne. Overall, this comparative study identified differences that are possible explanatory variables for Toronto’s better transit usage as well as areas where these two cities and their transit systems could learn from one another for both short and long term transit planning and design.

Agent-based microsimulation models of socioeconomic processes require an initial synthetic population derived from census data. This thesis builds upon the Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) synthesis procedure, which has well-understood statistical properties and close links with log-linear models. Typical applications of IPF are limited in the number of attributes that can be synthesized per agent. A new method is introduced, implementing IPF with a sparse list-based data structure that allows many more attributes per agent. Additionally, a new approach is used to synthesize the relationships between agents, allowing the formation of household and family agents in addition to individual person agents. Using these methods, a complete population of persons, families, households and dwellings was synthesized for the Greater Toronto Area and Hamilton.

Agent-based microsimulation models of socioeconomic processes require an initial synthetic population derived from census data. This thesis builds upon the Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) synthesis procedure, which has well-understood statistical properties and close links with log-linear models. Typical applications of IPF are limited in the number of attributes that can be synthesized per agent. A new method is introduced, implementing IPF with a sparse list-based data structure that allows many more attributes per agent. Additionally, a new approach is used to synthesize the relationships between agents, allowing the formation of household and family agents in addition to individual person agents. Using these methods, a complete population of persons, families, households and dwellings was synthesized for the Greater Toronto Area and Hamilton.

Master of Science / Department of Industrial & Manufacturing Systems Engineering / Malgorzata J. Rys / Centerline rumble strips (CLRS) are raised or indented patterns installed in the center of undivided rural two-lane highways. Their main function is to alert drivers who are encroaching or leaving the intended travel lane, by producing vibration and noise when crossed by vehicles’ tires. CLRS have been demonstrated to be an effective way in reducing head on and opposite direction sideswipe on two-lane highways (cross-over accidents). However, there are some disadvantages in their utilization, such as the exterior noise created by the strips, which may disturb residents in the highway vicinity. The objective of this study was to verify if the amount of noise created by CLRS is enough to impact negatively on residences and businesses, and to discover if the mean level of noise created by CLRS is statistically different than the noise generated by vehicles driving over smooth pavement. Two types of vehicles were driven over two different patterns of milled-in CLRS (rectangular and football-shaped) and over smooth asphalt pavement, at two different speeds. Researchers collected the noise levels at three distances 50, 100, and 150 feet, measured orthogonally from the center line, in 8 different open space locations. Results indicate that vehicle type, vehicle speed, pavement type, location and distances affect the levels of noise. In addition, both football and rectangular CLRS produced significantly higher levels of noise as compared to the smooth asphalt pavement. A 15 passenger van produced higher levels of noise in comparison with a sedan. Moreover, lower the vehicle speed, noise levels were lower. At every 50 feet of distance, the noise levels dropped significantly. CLRS do increase levels of noise relative to smooth pavement at distances up to 150 feet.

Master of Science / Department of Industrial & Manufacturing Systems Engineering / Malgorzata J. Rys / The community of Manhattan, Kansas was recently chosen as the future site of the National Bio- and Agro-Defense Facility (NBAF). At this site, research of agricultural and animal diseases and pathogens will take place. Due to the fact that the site will be in close proximity to a university, as well as many residents, a risk assessment must be completed to determine whether or not the current road infrastructure would be sufficient for evacuating the city in the event of an emergency. It should be noted that while NBAF is a large concern for this report, risk management is important in other scenarios as well, such as natural disasters or chemical spills, and this information can be applied to such events. This paper discusses the creation and analysis of a discrete-event simulation using ARENA software. The simulation described several scenarios. They were a base case scenario with only campus traffic evacuating; a scenario in which campus and outside traffic evacuate; a case with increased outside traffic; a case in which a vehicle breaks down; a case which includes guardians of children attending campus childcare are re-routed to pick up their children before evacuating; a case which accounts for reduced traveling speeds due to cell phone usage; and a case which closes a direction outside of Manhattan due to wind direction. Such simulations are an ideal performance measure of traffic flow under certain conditions due to the fact that physical resources are not needed to make a realistic comparison between each of them. Each of the situations described above were compared based on percentage of traffic leaving Manhattan and arriving at a defined safe zone each hour. Based on the findings, those involved with disaster management planning can determine if the percentages of vehicles leaving the system per hour are acceptable. They should be evaluated against potential spread rates of diseases to ensure that all residents may evacuate without the danger of becoming infected. For applications outside of NBAF, the results give insight into the degree of change in evacuation percentage that changes within the system may cause, and change any routing accordingly.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Civil Engineering / Eugene Russell / It has been well documented that roundabouts can offer several safety and operational benefits over signalized and stop controlled intersection alternatives. However the growing use of roundabouts and their benefits could be greatly diminished because they may not be well designed for large trucks, or to accommodate oversize/overweight (OSOW) vehicles which may be essential to a state’s industry and economy. This dissertation addresses concepts to better design roundabouts for use by owners/operators of typical large trucks, and that will also accommodate OSOW vehicles where appropriate. Roundabout safety generally decreases with increased roundabout size, wider lanes and larger radii, the geometric parameters that benefit large trucks and OSOW, thus a better balance is needed. This study accomplishes this balance by initially reviewing and incorporating those portions of the study “Accommodating Oversize Overweight Vehicles at Roundabouts” that were researched, completed and written by the author of this dissertation, and which compiled current practice, research and concerns by various U.S. states and concerns of the trucking industry, by conducting four different surveys. Then to meet these concerns expressed by survey respondents, a great number of possible accommodation, strategies and design templates were developed by using existing design software. An evaluation method was also developed. Two additional, needed studies, not previously reported in any published literature, addressed : 1. a vertical, ground clearance analysis, and 2. a study of the use of roundabouts in urban freight networks to incorporate their inherent benefits ,such as, reducing congestion, delay and pollution. The first analysis described above was conducted by using software with 3D analysis capabilities to check and recommend critical vertical grades and maximum dimensions for a range of large truck types and OSOW vehicle configurations. Guidelines were developed to avoid problems of low, ground clearance vehicles scraping roundabout surfaces (“hanging up”). The second study used existing software that relates intersection types to intersection traffic flow efficiency and related pollution, on a number of routing scenarios to test the hypothesis that integration of roundabouts in these freight networks improves traffic flow, and decreases delay, congestion and pollution. The results were mixed but the procedure is sound and should be beneficial for future use by researchers and decision makers.

Master of Arts / Department of Economics / Michael W. Babcock / Many of the railroad demand studies are out-dated, lacking the most recent data. We felt that it is time to re-evaluate the rail markets to determine if changes have occurred in the determinants of railroad demand. This paper examines the effects of industrial production and revenue per ton of railroads on the demand for railroad service for selected manufactured goods. Also there appears to be a fundamental shift in railroad pricing after 2004. Thus a dummy variable for the 2005-2010 period was included in the model. Although there is variation in the price elasticity of demand across the manufactured goods markets, all are price inelastic.

Conventional transportation demand management approaches have had limited success in reducing automobile dependency. As a result, it has become increasingly important to understand the decision-making processes involved in determining travel behaviour. The purpose of this dissertation is to extend research on urban form and travel behaviour beyond adult travel by examining teen travelers aged 13-19 in the Greater Toronto Area. Data from the Transportation Tomorrow Survey (TTS) survey are used to study four main research questions: 1) How has teen mode choice changed from 1986 to 2006? 2) How do these choices vary as teens transition from the 13-15 age group to being of driving age (16-19)? 3) How do these choices vary across the different urban and suburban regions of the GTA? 4) What are some of the differences between teen travel and adult travel? The issue is further probed through the collection of quantitative and qualitative travel data from first year students at the University of Toronto, and a series of focus groups held in locations in the GTA. The first year survey explores attitudes towards different modes in relation to the locational attributes of the respondent‘s hometown neighbourhood. The focus group sessions involve interviews with 26 teen and a take-home parental questionnaire. Results show that across the GTA, active transportation has decreased while auto passenger mode shares have increased. Younger teens walk more and older teens take transit more for both school and discretionary travel. Jurisdictions with better transit supply and orientation have higher transit mode shares for school trips, but discretionary trips have low transit mode shares. Walk mode shares for both school and discretionary travel are similar across all jurisdictions, regardless of whether they are urban or suburban. Additionally, the survey participants' narratives illustrate that the desire to travel actively and independently is strong. However, the reality of the final travel choice is determined by the presence of supportive infrastructure that facilitates active mode choices while shaping perceptions and attitudes formed as a result of daily travel experiences. Findings illustrate the relevance of qualitative work in advancing transportation research--particularly in understanding human travel decisions.

Conventional transportation demand management approaches have had limited success in reducing automobile dependency. As a result, it has become increasingly important to understand the decision-making processes involved in determining travel behaviour. The purpose of this dissertation is to extend research on urban form and travel behaviour beyond adult travel by examining teen travelers aged 13-19 in the Greater Toronto Area. Data from the Transportation Tomorrow Survey (TTS) survey are used to study four main research questions: 1) How has teen mode choice changed from 1986 to 2006? 2) How do these choices vary as teens transition from the 13-15 age group to being of driving age (16-19)? 3) How do these choices vary across the different urban and suburban regions of the GTA? 4) What are some of the differences between teen travel and adult travel? The issue is further probed through the collection of quantitative and qualitative travel data from first year students at the University of Toronto, and a series of focus groups held in locations in the GTA. The first year survey explores attitudes towards different modes in relation to the locational attributes of the respondent‘s hometown neighbourhood. The focus group sessions involve interviews with 26 teen and a take-home parental questionnaire. Results show that across the GTA, active transportation has decreased while auto passenger mode shares have increased. Younger teens walk more and older teens take transit more for both school and discretionary travel. Jurisdictions with better transit supply and orientation have higher transit mode shares for school trips, but discretionary trips have low transit mode shares. Walk mode shares for both school and discretionary travel are similar across all jurisdictions, regardless of whether they are urban or suburban. Additionally, the survey participants' narratives illustrate that the desire to travel actively and independently is strong. However, the reality of the final travel choice is determined by the presence of supportive infrastructure that facilitates active mode choices while shaping perceptions and attitudes formed as a result of daily travel experiences. Findings illustrate the relevance of qualitative work in advancing transportation research--particularly in understanding human travel decisions.