Dans une société où il est plutôt normal de passer beaucoup de temps assis, nous étudions, à partir de l’aménagement, l’intégration de l’activité physique de loisirs et de transport dans les activités et les lieux du quotidien. Cette intégration est relativement peu étudiée dans sa globalité car elle nécessite de prendre en considération les facteurs de l’environnement physique et social, les deux types d’activité physique, les différents lieux fréquentés quotidiennement et elle pose en ce sens de nombreux défis d’ordre méthodologique. Cette vue globale du phénomène s’impose car de plus en plus de recherches font état d’associations entre des dimensions spécifiques de l’aménagement et des comportements précis; occasionnellement, ces résultats se contredisent. Pour comprendre le phénomène, nous sommes partis du modèle écoenvironnemental et l’avons adapté pour mieux représenter la mobilité de la population. Nous avons conséquemment choisi une unité d’analyse comprenant le territoire résidentiel, le territoire du milieu de travail et le trajet entre les deux. Ainsi, en utilisant plusieurs sources de données, nous avons caractérisé des milieux comme étant contraignants ou facilitants pour l’activité physique et les personnes y résidant comme étant suffisamment actives ou pas. Nous avons ensuite fait ressortir les éléments importants des entrevues en fonction de cet appariement. Parmi les thèmes explorés en entrevue, nommons les caractéristiques de l’environnement physique qui ont de l’importance, l’impact de l’environnement social au travail et au domicile, la logique sous-jacente aux courses, etc. Les principaux résultats de cette recherche démontrent que les usagers du train de banlieue font suffisamment d’activité physique en dépit qu’ils résident en banlieue. En ce sens, notre échantillon est plus actif que la moyenne québécoise. Nous remarquons que l’influence de l’environnement est manifeste mais sous le principe des vases communicants, c'est-à-dire que le pôle résidentiel et le pôle des emplois ont tous deux des contributions qui s’avèrent très souvent complémentaires. L’influence de l’environnement social passe par le rôle signifiant des proches plutôt que par leur proximité géographique tandis que l’aménagement a une énorme contribution à rendre les parcours agréables et, de ce fait, donner une plus-value au temps requis pour les emprunter. La vocation des milieux, le type de marche et le sens qu’y voient les usagers doivent guider le design; il n’y a donc pas qu’une formule ou une seule prescription pour augmenter le potentiel piétonnier et/ou cyclable des milieux. Cela dit, les outils de caractérisation doivent être revus. En conclusion des pistes de développements futurs à cette recherche sont proposées. / In a society where it is quite normal to spend much time sitting, we study from an environmental design standpoint, the integration of physical activity for recreation and transportation activities and everyday places. This integration is relatively little studied in its entirety because it requires taking into consideration the factors of physical and social environment, both types of physical activity, the various places visited daily and it puts in that many challenges of methodology. This overview of the phenomenon is needed because more and more researches have reported associations between specific dimensions of the built environment and specific behaviours, and these results are occasionally contradictory. To understand the phenomenon, we set the eco environmental model and have adapted to better represent the population mobility. We have therefore chosen a unit of analysis including the residential area, the area of workplace and travel between the two. Thus, using multiple data sources, we characterized the community as restricting or facilitating physical activity and people living there as being sufficiently active or not. We then highlighted the important elements of interviews based on this pairing. Among the themes explored in the interview, characteristics of the physical environment that are important, the impact of the social environment at work and at home, the logic underlying the errands, etc. Key findings of this research show that users of the commuter trains are sufficiently active although they live in the suburbs. In this sense, our sample is more active than the provincial average. We note that the influence of the environment is obvious but under the principle of communicating vessels, that is to say that the residential pole and employment center has both a contribution that is often complementary. The influence of the social environment is through the significant role of relatives rather than by their geographical proximity while environmental design has a huge contribution to make the journey enjoyable and thereby give an added value to the time required to use them. The purpose of environments, the type of walking and the expectations of the users must guide the design. Consequently, there is not one formula or one single prescription to increase the walkability of the community; that being said, the characterization tools must be tailored. In conclusion, ideas for future developments following this research are proposed.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Allen Featherstone / The thesis assesses the viability of investing in a new grain discharge terminal at the port of Santos, located in the Brazilian southern region, used mostly for wheat but also for malt and malting barley operations. ABC Intl suffered losses of more than USD 1.0 million in 2006 due to demurrage costs at berth 39, used by ABC Intl to export and import grains, sugar and soybean. Congestion tends to increase with the growth of Brazilian soybean and sugar cane production and exports (average 5.0% per year) and 2.0% growth of wheat imports. Demurrage losses are expected to amount to USD 3.0 million by the year 2011 if no investments are made. A brief summary of Brazilian wheat supply and demand for the last five years is presented. Brazil is a net importer between 6.0 and 8.0 million metric tons of wheat per year, to supply the 10.0 million metric ton internal demand. Brazilian wheat imports through the port of Santos average 1.6 million metric tons per year from 2000 to 2006. Sao Paulo is the most populated Brazilian city with more than 18.0 million inhabitants. Its wheat consumption amounts to a third of the total Brazilian consumption and represents around 3.0 million metric tons per year. The thesis analyzes data related to berth 39 activities in the past seven years. A 56-day lineup in 2006 represented more than USD 1.0 million demurrage costs. The thesis forecasts the activity of berth 39 for next five years with and without investment at the new terminal. The new terminal will result in an average of USD 1.8 million savings on demurrage costs over five years. Codesp, Companhia Docas de Sao Paulo, the governmental authority in the port of Santos, is offering a unique opportunity for ABC Intl to invest in a new terminal for grain imports granting the land at no cost. The new terminal would be located at the middle of the port (berth 13/14) close to the railroad and the main avenue in the port of Santos, allowing discharging, storing and loading grain to trucks and wagons. ABC Intl needs to invest USD 5.0 million in the new terminal. It comprises the dismantling and rebuilding of all the grain discharge equipment that will be moved from shed 39 to the new terminal, including two suckers and conveyor belts. The thesis analyzes four different wheat import scenarios for the next five years. In addition, the same scenarios are analyzed for a 10-year period for comparison purposes. The weighted average of the Net Present Value of the four different investment scenarios, considering the probability of each occurring, is a positive USD 78,908 with 13.1% Internal Rate of Return, compared to 9.0 % ABC Intl opportunity cost of capital. It must be considered that the Net Present Value is a conservative figure since it does not take into account the savings on demurrage at berth 39, forecasted to be more than USD 3.0 million in the year 2011 if the company does not invest in the new terminal construction. It is recommended the ABC Intl invest in the new terminal to improve the overall logistics of the port and the quality of the service. This will avoid unnecessary demurrage costs and improving shareholders wealth by investing in a project with positive Net Present Value.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Civil Engineering / Sunanda Dissanayake / Young drivers have elevated motor vehicle crash rates compared to other drivers. This dissertation investigated characteristics, contributory causes, and factors which increase the injury severity of young driver crashes in Kansas by comparing them with more experienced drivers. Crash data were obtained from the Kansas Department of Transportation. Young drivers were divided into two groups: 15-19 years (teen) and 20-24 years (young adult) for a detailed investigation. Using data from 2006 to 2009, frequencies, percentages, and crash rates were calculated for each characteristic and contributory cause. Contingency table analysis and odds ratios (OR) analysis were carried out to identify overly represented factors of young-driver crashes compared to experienced drivers. Young drivers were more likely to be involved in crashes due to failure to yield-right-of way, disregarding traffic signs/signals, turning, or lane changing, compared to experienced drivers. Ordered logistic regression models were developed to identify severity affecting factors in young driver crashes. According to model results, factors that decreased injury severity of the driver were seat belt use, driving at low speeds, driving newer vehicles, and driving with an adult passenger. The models also showed that alcohol involvement, driving on high-posted-speed-limit roadways, ejection at the time of crash, and trapping at the time of crash can increase young drivers’ injury severity. Based on identified critical factors, countermeasure ideas were suggested to improve the safety of young drivers. It is important for teen drivers and parents/guardians to gain better understanding about these critical factors that are helpful in preventing crashes and minimizing driving risk. Parents/guardians can consider high-risk conditions such as driving during dark, during weekends, on rural roads, on wet road surfaces, and on roadways with high speed limits, for planning teen driving. Protective devices, crash-worthy cars, and safer road infrastructures, such as rumble strips, and forgiving roadsides, will particularly reduce young drivers’ risk. Predictable traffic situations and low complexity resulting from improved road infrastructure are beneficial for young drivers. The effectiveness of Kansas Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) system needs to be investigated in the future.

Master of Regional and Community Planning / Department of Landscape Architecture/Regional and Community Planning / Huston Gibson / Rural communities across America are working to strengthen their economies, provide better quality of life to residents, and build on assets such as traditional main streets, transportation initiatives, and natural amenities and resources. Today, rural communities face an array of challenges. Small communities are vulnerable to the impacts of expensive commutes, lack of mobility, financial resources, and other services. According to the USDA, “Some small communities, have limited local government staff, experience, or funding, which can mean few resources dedicated to providing sustainable amenities, regional collaboration, and other efforts to identify shared community goals and visions that can help shape growth and development” (USDA, 2011). Small communities must work hard to compete with larger cities and other communities to sustain economically and become prominent. This is often noticeable when there is a lack of investment and economic prosperity. Many rural communities have limited transportation options. Most small communities are not fit to support multiple modes of transportation, which limits access to jobs, medical care, and educational opportunities. For those who do drive, commutes to distant employment centers can be time consuming and require a large percentage of the family budget to be spent on transportation (USDA, 2011). In addition, intercity and regional mobility are drivers of economic growth in rural communities and bring tourists and other consumers to community businesses. Rural communities and small towns should be valued for their distinctive and historic features. Communities that conserve and build upon these resources, such as historic downtowns and main streets, will be better positioned to enhance quality of life for their residents. Without revitalizing main streets we would not see the places of shared memory where people are suppose to come together to live, work, and play.

The numerous man-made disasters and natural catastrophes that menace major communities accentuate the need for proper planning for emergency evacuation. Transportation networks in cities evolve over long time spans in tandem with population growth and evolution of travel patterns. In emergencies, travel demand and travel patterns drastically change from the usual everyday volumes and patterns. Given that most US and Canadian cities are already congested and operating near capacity during peak periods, network performance can severely deteriorate if drastic changes in Origin-Destination (O-D) demand patterns occur during or after a disaster. Also, loss of capacity due to the disaster and associated incidents can further complicate the matter. Therefore, the primary goal when a disaster or hazardous event occurs is to coordinate, control, and possibly optimize the utilization of the existing transportation network capacity. Emergency operation management centres face multi-faceted challenges in anticipating evacuation flows and providing proactive actions to guide and coordinate the public towards safe shelters. Numerous studies have contributed to developing and testing strategies that have the potential to mitigate the consequences of emergency situations. They primarily investigate the effect of some proposed strategies that have the potential of improving the performance of the evacuation process with modelling and optimization techniques. However, most of these studies are inherently restricted to evacuating automobile traffic using a certain strategy without considering other modes of transportation. Moreover, little emphasis is given to studying the interaction between the various strategies that could be potentially synergized to expedite the evacuation process. Also, the absence of an accurate representation of the spatial and temporal distribution of the population and the failure to identify the available modes and populations that are captive to certain modes contribute to the absence of multimodal evacuation procedures. Incorporating multiple modes into emergency evacuation has the potential to expedite the evacuation process and is essential to assuring the effective evacuation of transit-captive and special-needs populations . This dissertation presents a novel multimodal optimization framework that combines vehicular traffic and mass transit for emergency evacuation. A multi-objective approach is used to optimize the multimodal evacuation problem. For automobile evacuees, an Optimal Spatio-Temporal Evacuation (OSTE) framework is presented for generating optimal demand scheduling, destination choices and route choices, simultaneously. OSTE implements Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) techniques coupled with parallel distributed genetic optimization to guarantee a near global optimal solution. For transit evacuees, a Multi-Depots, Time Constrained, Pick-up and Delivery Vehicle Routing Problem (MDTCPD-VRP) framework is presented to model the use of public transit vehicles in evacuation situations. The MDTCPD-VRP implements constraint programming and local search techniques to optimize certain objective functions and satisfy a set of constraints. The OSTE and MDTCPD-VRP platforms are integrated into one framework to replicate the impact of congestion caused by traffic on transit vehicle travel times. A proof-of-concept prototype has been tested; it investigates the optimization of a multimodal evacuation of a portion of the Toronto Waterfront area. It also assesses the impact of multiple objective functions on emergency evacuation while attempting to achieve an equilibrium state between transit modes and vehicular traffic. Then, a large-scale application, including a demand estimation model from a regional travel survey, is conducted for the evacuation of the entire City of Toronto. This framework addresses many limitations of existing evacuation planning models by: 1) synergizing multiple evacuation strategies; 2) utilizing robust optimization and solution algorithms that can tackle such multi-dimensional non deterministic problem; 3) estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of evacuation demand; 4) identifying the transit-dependent population; 5) integrating multiple modes in emergency evacuation. The framework presents a significant step forward in emergency evacuation optimization.

Public transit is becoming an increasing important field of study to combat global issues such as traffic congestion and climate change. Accurate simulation of public transit is therefore likewise vital, as it is an important tool for understanding potential impacts of public transit policies. The research presented in this thesis describes the implementation of a multimodal, dynamic, agent-based supply-side simulation model of public transit implemented in the open-source platform MATSim for the city of Toronto. Transit schedule data was converted from Google Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) and map-matched to a region-wide road network to obtain a congestion-based multimodal assignment for transit. Volume-based results from the assignment showed under-prediction of subway volumes and slight over-prediction of bus volumes, but were generally comparable with static EMME/3 assignment for the same data. Travel time analysis indicated that further calibration of network specification is needed.

Public transit is becoming an increasing important field of study to combat global issues such as traffic congestion and climate change. Accurate simulation of public transit is therefore likewise vital, as it is an important tool for understanding potential impacts of public transit policies. The research presented in this thesis describes the implementation of a multimodal, dynamic, agent-based supply-side simulation model of public transit implemented in the open-source platform MATSim for the city of Toronto. Transit schedule data was converted from Google Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) and map-matched to a region-wide road network to obtain a congestion-based multimodal assignment for transit. Volume-based results from the assignment showed under-prediction of subway volumes and slight over-prediction of bus volumes, but were generally comparable with static EMME/3 assignment for the same data. Travel time analysis indicated that further calibration of network specification is needed.

The numerous man-made disasters and natural catastrophes that menace major communities accentuate the need for proper planning for emergency evacuation. Transportation networks in cities evolve over long time spans in tandem with population growth and evolution of travel patterns. In emergencies, travel demand and travel patterns drastically change from the usual everyday volumes and patterns. Given that most US and Canadian cities are already congested and operating near capacity during peak periods, network performance can severely deteriorate if drastic changes in Origin-Destination (O-D) demand patterns occur during or after a disaster. Also, loss of capacity due to the disaster and associated incidents can further complicate the matter. Therefore, the primary goal when a disaster or hazardous event occurs is to coordinate, control, and possibly optimize the utilization of the existing transportation network capacity. Emergency operation management centres face multi-faceted challenges in anticipating evacuation flows and providing proactive actions to guide and coordinate the public towards safe shelters. Numerous studies have contributed to developing and testing strategies that have the potential to mitigate the consequences of emergency situations. They primarily investigate the effect of some proposed strategies that have the potential of improving the performance of the evacuation process with modelling and optimization techniques. However, most of these studies are inherently restricted to evacuating automobile traffic using a certain strategy without considering other modes of transportation. Moreover, little emphasis is given to studying the interaction between the various strategies that could be potentially synergized to expedite the evacuation process. Also, the absence of an accurate representation of the spatial and temporal distribution of the population and the failure to identify the available modes and populations that are captive to certain modes contribute to the absence of multimodal evacuation procedures. Incorporating multiple modes into emergency evacuation has the potential to expedite the evacuation process and is essential to assuring the effective evacuation of transit-captive and special-needs populations . This dissertation presents a novel multimodal optimization framework that combines vehicular traffic and mass transit for emergency evacuation. A multi-objective approach is used to optimize the multimodal evacuation problem. For automobile evacuees, an Optimal Spatio-Temporal Evacuation (OSTE) framework is presented for generating optimal demand scheduling, destination choices and route choices, simultaneously. OSTE implements Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) techniques coupled with parallel distributed genetic optimization to guarantee a near global optimal solution. For transit evacuees, a Multi-Depots, Time Constrained, Pick-up and Delivery Vehicle Routing Problem (MDTCPD-VRP) framework is presented to model the use of public transit vehicles in evacuation situations. The MDTCPD-VRP implements constraint programming and local search techniques to optimize certain objective functions and satisfy a set of constraints. The OSTE and MDTCPD-VRP platforms are integrated into one framework to replicate the impact of congestion caused by traffic on transit vehicle travel times. A proof-of-concept prototype has been tested; it investigates the optimization of a multimodal evacuation of a portion of the Toronto Waterfront area. It also assesses the impact of multiple objective functions on emergency evacuation while attempting to achieve an equilibrium state between transit modes and vehicular traffic. Then, a large-scale application, including a demand estimation model from a regional travel survey, is conducted for the evacuation of the entire City of Toronto. This framework addresses many limitations of existing evacuation planning models by: 1) synergizing multiple evacuation strategies; 2) utilizing robust optimization and solution algorithms that can tackle such multi-dimensional non deterministic problem; 3) estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of evacuation demand; 4) identifying the transit-dependent population; 5) integrating multiple modes in emergency evacuation. The framework presents a significant step forward in emergency evacuation optimization.

Dans une société où il est plutôt normal de passer beaucoup de temps assis, nous étudions, à partir de l’aménagement, l’intégration de l’activité physique de loisirs et de transport dans les activités et les lieux du quotidien. Cette intégration est relativement peu étudiée dans sa globalité car elle nécessite de prendre en considération les facteurs de l’environnement physique et social, les deux types d’activité physique, les différents lieux fréquentés quotidiennement et elle pose en ce sens de nombreux défis d’ordre méthodologique. Cette vue globale du phénomène s’impose car de plus en plus de recherches font état d’associations entre des dimensions spécifiques de l’aménagement et des comportements précis; occasionnellement, ces résultats se contredisent. Pour comprendre le phénomène, nous sommes partis du modèle écoenvironnemental et l’avons adapté pour mieux représenter la mobilité de la population. Nous avons conséquemment choisi une unité d’analyse comprenant le territoire résidentiel, le territoire du milieu de travail et le trajet entre les deux. Ainsi, en utilisant plusieurs sources de données, nous avons caractérisé des milieux comme étant contraignants ou facilitants pour l’activité physique et les personnes y résidant comme étant suffisamment actives ou pas. Nous avons ensuite fait ressortir les éléments importants des entrevues en fonction de cet appariement. Parmi les thèmes explorés en entrevue, nommons les caractéristiques de l’environnement physique qui ont de l’importance, l’impact de l’environnement social au travail et au domicile, la logique sous-jacente aux courses, etc. Les principaux résultats de cette recherche démontrent que les usagers du train de banlieue font suffisamment d’activité physique en dépit qu’ils résident en banlieue. En ce sens, notre échantillon est plus actif que la moyenne québécoise. Nous remarquons que l’influence de l’environnement est manifeste mais sous le principe des vases communicants, c'est-à-dire que le pôle résidentiel et le pôle des emplois ont tous deux des contributions qui s’avèrent très souvent complémentaires. L’influence de l’environnement social passe par le rôle signifiant des proches plutôt que par leur proximité géographique tandis que l’aménagement a une énorme contribution à rendre les parcours agréables et, de ce fait, donner une plus-value au temps requis pour les emprunter. La vocation des milieux, le type de marche et le sens qu’y voient les usagers doivent guider le design; il n’y a donc pas qu’une formule ou une seule prescription pour augmenter le potentiel piétonnier et/ou cyclable des milieux. Cela dit, les outils de caractérisation doivent être revus. En conclusion des pistes de développements futurs à cette recherche sont proposées. / In a society where it is quite normal to spend much time sitting, we study from an environmental design standpoint, the integration of physical activity for recreation and transportation activities and everyday places. This integration is relatively little studied in its entirety because it requires taking into consideration the factors of physical and social environment, both types of physical activity, the various places visited daily and it puts in that many challenges of methodology. This overview of the phenomenon is needed because more and more researches have reported associations between specific dimensions of the built environment and specific behaviours, and these results are occasionally contradictory. To understand the phenomenon, we set the eco environmental model and have adapted to better represent the population mobility. We have therefore chosen a unit of analysis including the residential area, the area of workplace and travel between the two. Thus, using multiple data sources, we characterized the community as restricting or facilitating physical activity and people living there as being sufficiently active or not. We then highlighted the important elements of interviews based on this pairing. Among the themes explored in the interview, characteristics of the physical environment that are important, the impact of the social environment at work and at home, the logic underlying the errands, etc. Key findings of this research show that users of the commuter trains are sufficiently active although they live in the suburbs. In this sense, our sample is more active than the provincial average. We note that the influence of the environment is obvious but under the principle of communicating vessels, that is to say that the residential pole and employment center has both a contribution that is often complementary. The influence of the social environment is through the significant role of relatives rather than by their geographical proximity while environmental design has a huge contribution to make the journey enjoyable and thereby give an added value to the time required to use them. The purpose of environments, the type of walking and the expectations of the users must guide the design. Consequently, there is not one formula or one single prescription to increase the walkability of the community; that being said, the characterization tools must be tailored. In conclusion, ideas for future developments following this research are proposed.

Over the past decade, the popularity of regional bus services has grown in large North American cities owing to more people living in suburban areas and commuting to the Central Business District to work every day. Estimating journey time for regional buses is challenging because of the low frequencies and long commuting distances that typically characterize such services. This research project developed a mathematical model to estimate regional bus travel time using artificial neural networks (ANN). ANN outperformed other forecasting methods, namely historical average and linear regression, by an average of 35 and 26 seconds respectively. The ANN results showed, however, overestimation by 40% to 60%, which can lead to travellers missing the bus. An operational strategy is integrated into the model to minimize stakeholders’ costs when the model’s forecast time is later than the scheduled bus departure time. This operational strategy should be varied as the commuting distance decreases.