Metropolitan regions around the world are growing rapidly and face a complex and uncertain future. Plans for metropolitan regions cover large geographic areas, address a wide range of issues, and involve governments and many other organizations. They are prepared and implemented over a long timeframe. Planning for the future of metropolitan regions involves addressing uncertainties about future trends, external events, organisational intentions, political agendas and community values. In this thesis, it is argued that traditional planning approaches that emphasise what is known or thought to be known need to be turned on their head and the focus of planning efforts aimed directly at understanding what is unknown or needs to be known, i.e. at uncertainties. It builds upon concepts of uncertainty from philosophy, economics, planning, management theory and psychology to develop a comprehensive and dynamic conceptual framework for understanding and managing uncertainties in metropolitan planning. Uncertainties are perceived in social processes. The conceptual framework developed in this thesis distinguishes between environmental uncertainties, which are perceived by all people in a community, and process uncertainties, which are perceived by people actively involved in a planning process. The framework identifies five types of uncertainties to be understood and managed in planning: external uncertainties; chance events; causal uncertainties; organisational uncertainties; and value uncertainties. Planning processes envisage and construct alternative futures and each of these alternatives raises different uncertainties. Planning is conceived as a process of exploring alternative futures by visioning and analytical methods and of agreeing on a desired/ planned future and on how to get there. The conceptual framework has been used as a basis for two case studies of the preparation of metropolitan plans: the Livable Region Strategic Plan 1996 for Greater Vancouver, Canada; and the Regional Framework for Growth Management 1995 for South East Queensland, Australia. The case studies show that all five types of uncertainties were perceived by people actively involved in metropolitan planning. The types and level of uncertainties perceived changed through the planning process according to stages in the process, activities in the process and other events. In exploring alternative futures and a desired future, the planning process raises uncertainties and these have to be addressed and dealt with in order to reach agreement about the final plan. The case studies show that uncertainties in plan preparation were dealt with in the following five ways: • Avoided by deleting these aspects or elements of the desired future; • Deferred to a later planning process; • Referred to be dealt with by a different organisation; • Resolved by additional information collection, agreements or consultation; and • Retained in the plan and reviewed with the passage of time or contingent events. The studies also show that how uncertainties are managed, and particularly how uncertainties are dealt with in reaching agreement about the planned future, directly affects the nature and contents of the metropolitan plan produced. In this process of reaching agreement, there is a tension between achieving better or achieving more certain outcomes. How agreement occurs is affected by the interests and views of powerful groups in the decision-making process. Overall, the research shows that a focus on uncertainties assists in understanding the planning process and its outputs and that metropolitan planning can be usefully conceived as a process of understanding and managing uncertainties. Based on this research, on planning theories and on risk management models, a framework for understanding and managing uncertainties in metropolitan plan-making is proposed, involving five main stages, namely: • Initiate the planning process; • Identify the uncertainties and planning approach; • Identify the Desired Future; • Agree on the Planned Future; and • Implement the plan. The management framework involves specific methods and processes for understanding and managing uncertainties in metropolitan plan-making. The aim of the framework is to agree on a better future for a metropolitan region, compared to the trend, and with more certainty of achievement. The theories or concepts that we use to represent events and their relationships determine the kinds of action we can envisage. In the quest for certainty about better future outcomes for metropolitan regions, this thesis shows that understanding and managing uncertainty provides a powerful guide to action.

Metropolitan regions around the world are growing rapidly and face a complex and uncertain future. Plans for metropolitan regions cover large geographic areas, address a wide range of issues, and involve governments and many other organizations. They are prepared and implemented over a long timeframe. Planning for the future of metropolitan regions involves addressing uncertainties about future trends, external events, organisational intentions, political agendas and community values. In this thesis, it is argued that traditional planning approaches that emphasise what is known or thought to be known need to be turned on their head and the focus of planning efforts aimed directly at understanding what is unknown or needs to be known, i.e. at uncertainties. It builds upon concepts of uncertainty from philosophy, economics, planning, management theory and psychology to develop a comprehensive and dynamic conceptual framework for understanding and managing uncertainties in metropolitan planning. Uncertainties are perceived in social processes. The conceptual framework developed in this thesis distinguishes between environmental uncertainties, which are perceived by all people in a community, and process uncertainties, which are perceived by people actively involved in a planning process. The framework identifies five types of uncertainties to be understood and managed in planning: external uncertainties; chance events; causal uncertainties; organisational uncertainties; and value uncertainties. Planning processes envisage and construct alternative futures and each of these alternatives raises different uncertainties. Planning is conceived as a process of exploring alternative futures by visioning and analytical methods and of agreeing on a desired/ planned future and on how to get there. The conceptual framework has been used as a basis for two case studies of the preparation of metropolitan plans: the Livable Region Strategic Plan 1996 for Greater Vancouver, Canada; and the Regional Framework for Growth Management 1995 for South East Queensland, Australia. The case studies show that all five types of uncertainties were perceived by people actively involved in metropolitan planning. The types and level of uncertainties perceived changed through the planning process according to stages in the process, activities in the process and other events. In exploring alternative futures and a desired future, the planning process raises uncertainties and these have to be addressed and dealt with in order to reach agreement about the final plan. The case studies show that uncertainties in plan preparation were dealt with in the following five ways: • Avoided by deleting these aspects or elements of the desired future; • Deferred to a later planning process; • Referred to be dealt with by a different organisation; • Resolved by additional information collection, agreements or consultation; and • Retained in the plan and reviewed with the passage of time or contingent events. The studies also show that how uncertainties are managed, and particularly how uncertainties are dealt with in reaching agreement about the planned future, directly affects the nature and contents of the metropolitan plan produced. In this process of reaching agreement, there is a tension between achieving better or achieving more certain outcomes. How agreement occurs is affected by the interests and views of powerful groups in the decision-making process. Overall, the research shows that a focus on uncertainties assists in understanding the planning process and its outputs and that metropolitan planning can be usefully conceived as a process of understanding and managing uncertainties. Based on this research, on planning theories and on risk management models, a framework for understanding and managing uncertainties in metropolitan plan-making is proposed, involving five main stages, namely: • Initiate the planning process; • Identify the uncertainties and planning approach; • Identify the Desired Future; • Agree on the Planned Future; and • Implement the plan. The management framework involves specific methods and processes for understanding and managing uncertainties in metropolitan plan-making. The aim of the framework is to agree on a better future for a metropolitan region, compared to the trend, and with more certainty of achievement. The theories or concepts that we use to represent events and their relationships determine the kinds of action we can envisage. In the quest for certainty about better future outcomes for metropolitan regions, this thesis shows that understanding and managing uncertainty provides a powerful guide to action.

The spatial distribution of future population and employment has become a focus of recent academic enquiry and planning policy concerns. This is largely driven by the rapid urban expansion in major Australian cities and the need to plan ahead for new housing growth and demand for urban infrastructure and services. At a national level forecasts for population and employment are produced by the government and research institutions; however there is a further need to break these forecasts down to a disaggregate geographic scale for growth management within regions. Appropriate planning for the urban growth needs forecasts for fine-grained spatial units. This thesis has developed methodologies to predict the future settlement of the population, employment and urban form by applying a spatial disaggregation approach. The methodology uses the existing regional forecasts reported at regional geographic units and applies a novel spatially-based technique to step-down the regional forecasts to smaller geographical units. South East Queensland (SEQ) is the experimental context for the methodologies developed in the thesis, being one of the fastest-growing metropolitan regions in Australia. The research examines whether spatial disaggregation methodologies that can be used to enhance the forecasts for urban planning purposes and to derive a deeper understanding of the urban spatial structure under growth conditions. The first part of this thesis develops a method by which the SEQ population forecasts can be spatially disaggregated. This is related to a classical problem in geographical analysis called to modifiable area unit problem, where spatial data disaggregation may give inaccurate results due to spatial heterogeneity in the explanatory variables. Several statistical regression and dasymetric techniques are evaluated to spatially disaggregate population forecasts over the study area and to assess their relative accuracies. An important contribution arising from this research is that: i) it extends the dasymetric method beyond its current simple form to techniques that incorporate more complex density assumptions to disaggregate the data and, ii) it selects a method based on balancing the costs and errors of the disaggregation for a study area. The outputs of the method are spatially disaggregated population forecasts across the smaller areas that can be directly used for urban form analysis and are also directly available for subsequent employment disaggregation. The second part in this thesis develops a method to spatially disaggregate the employment forecasts and examine their impact on the urban form. A new method for spatially disaggregating the employment data is evaluated; it analyses the trend and spatial pattern of historic regional employment patterns based on employment determinants (for example, the local population and the proximity of an area to a shopping centre). The method we apply, namely geographically weighted regression (GWR), accounts for spatial effects of data autocorrelation and heterogeneity. Autocorrelation is where certain variables for employment determinants are related in space, and hence violate traditional statistical independence assumptions, and heterogeneity is where the associations between variables change across space. The method uses a locally-fitted relationship to estimate employment in the smaller geography whilst being constrained by the regional forecast. Results show that, by accounting for spatial heterogeneity in the local dependency of employment, the GWR method generates superior estimates over a global regression model. The spatially disaggregate projections developed in this thesis can be used to better understand questions on urban form. From a planning perspective, the results of spatial disaggregation indicate that the future growth of the population for SEQ is likely to maintain a spatially-dispersed growth pattern, whilst the employment is likely to follow a more polycentric distribution focused around the new activity centres. Overall, the thesis demonstrates that the spatial disaggregation method can be applied to supplement the regional forecasts to seek a deeper understanding of the future urban growth patterns. The development, application and validation of the spatial disaggregation methods will enhance the planner’s toolbox whilst responding to the data issues to inform urban planning and future development in a region.

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In 1938, the Carnegie Institution of Washington published the results of ethnoarchaeological research conducted in Guatemala and southern Mexico by North American archaeologist Robert Wauchope. This seminal work, titled Modern Maya Houses: A Study of Their Archaeological Significance, aimed to understand the significance of traditional Maya houses (known in the study region as casas de paja) for the identification and interpretation of ancient dwelling remains in archaeological excavations. At the time, Wauchope documented only ten distinct house types among six of the 28 Maya language (cultural) groups. Due to its narrow scope, Wauchope’s investigation focused more on the physical properties of house construction and less on the social behaviours and beliefs generating the architectural forms. In recognition of Wauchope’s survey remaining incomplete, the primary aim of this dissertation has been to ethnographically record and comparatively analyse the remaining casas de paja in contributing to a greater cross-cultural understanding and theory of the entire repertoire of Maya house architectures. In combining both architectural and anthropological method, the author was able to make a number of important research findings; most notably that a pan-Maya, and pre-Columbian, semantic relationship existed between individual house types, indexing a shared cultural history and proto-Maya house architecture that possibly originated as early as 4,000 years prior to present times. In addition to the architectural documentation of house traditions, the author also investigated the processes of house transformation and change in the 70 years since Wauchope’s original survey. The rapid rate of built environment transformation in both Guatemala and Mexico over those intervening years underscores the importance of recording these cultural traditions before they pass. In contemporary times the few remaining chozas or casas de paja stand as historical reminders to a time past but not forgotten and embody traditional knowledge related to cultural beliefs and behaviours, which are intimately linked to the land, materials and climate of the region. Chapter 1 of the dissertation introduces the study region and establishes the primary aims and objectives of the research. Chapters 2 and 3 present the theoretical background and methodological approach governing the research project while Chapter 4 gives an historical overview of Maya house traditions. Chapters 5 and 6 are devoted to the ethnographic findings of the regional survey and Chapter 7 discusses Maya house change in the years since Wauchope’s 1930s investigation. Chapter 8 details the contribution which the ethnographic investigation makes to Euromerican architectural theory in relation to non-Euromerican material and cultural histories in contributing to a world cross-cultural architectural canon and scholarship. In coming to a greater understanding of a past (pre-Columbian) and present (Maya casas de paja) subject, the thesis calls for an understanding, appreciation and acceptance of non-Euromerican architectural forms by Euromerican academics and practitioners in moving toward a greater acceptance of a diversity of human needs in the creation of social, cultural and built environments. The overall significance of this thesis lies in the position that the sustainability of lifestyle practices, and allocation of wisdom, skills, and the fulfilment of human needs, as embodied in building ‘traditions’, are of major relevance to current and future generations.

Traditionally New Zealand ecological research has focused on nature outside of cities, however, as with global trends, there is now more interest being given to the ecological functioning of cities and the potential they may hold for protecting native biodiversity. Traditionally, efforts to maintain biodiversity in urban areas have been restricted to remnants of native vegetation and restoration activities. Little attention has been given to how native biodiversity could be woven into the urban fabric in an ecologically meaningful way. One option, that is receiving much attention overseas, is to recruit underutilised urban spaces such as wasteland. A subset of urban wasteland, abandoned industrial areas usually awaiting development and other areas such as the railway buffer, are referred to here as greyfield. These are ephemeral sites that may sit between uses for as little as a few months to many years. Overseas, particularly in European countries, these have been recognised as important habitat for both native and introduced plant species. In New Zealand cities these support primarily introduced plants and their contribution to native biodiversity has been unknown. This thesis took an interdisciplinary approach to the question of whether urban greyfields might have potential value as biodiversity protection and conservation opportunity. Ecological methods were combined with an assessment of the planning framework to answer this question. iii Greyfields in Christchurch, New Zealand were surveyed to determine their current contribution to native biodiversity and whether they may act as urban analogues of natural habitats. Overseas research has shown that urban features such as pavements, walls and rooftops offer habitats analogous to cliffs and rocky habitats. Cities are therefore increasing the habitat exploitable by species whose natural habitats are geographically restricted. The Christchurch greyfields were assessed for their potential to act as analogues of four habitat types that have been categorised as historically rare in New Zealand: braided riverbeds, shingle beaches, rock outcrops and limestone outcrops. The findings suggest that urban greyfields, if managed appropriately, have the potential to support a wider range of native species Planning documents and biodiversity strategies written for Christchurch were assessed to see how well they facilitated non-traditional biodiversity enhancement initiatives, specifically the greyfield network for native biodiversity. A major finding here was a lack of information on how to enhance biodiversity where little of the natural features of the landscape were left and that this was creating a barrier to adopting more integrative approaches to enhancing native biodiversity. Finally, a plan to create a greyfield network for native biodiversity is proposed and suggestions are made as to minor changes to the planning framework that would more easily facilitate the uptake of novel biodiversity enhancement initiatives in the City.