Metropolitan regions around the world are growing rapidly and face a complex and uncertain future. Plans for metropolitan regions cover large geographic areas, address a wide range of issues, and involve governments and many other organizations. They are prepared and implemented over a long timeframe. Planning for the future of metropolitan regions involves addressing uncertainties about future trends, external events, organisational intentions, political agendas and community values. In this thesis, it is argued that traditional planning approaches that emphasise what is known or thought to be known need to be turned on their head and the focus of planning efforts aimed directly at understanding what is unknown or needs to be known, i.e. at uncertainties. It builds upon concepts of uncertainty from philosophy, economics, planning, management theory and psychology to develop a comprehensive and dynamic conceptual framework for understanding and managing uncertainties in metropolitan planning. Uncertainties are perceived in social processes. The conceptual framework developed in this thesis distinguishes between environmental uncertainties, which are perceived by all people in a community, and process uncertainties, which are perceived by people actively involved in a planning process. The framework identifies five types of uncertainties to be understood and managed in planning: external uncertainties; chance events; causal uncertainties; organisational uncertainties; and value uncertainties. Planning processes envisage and construct alternative futures and each of these alternatives raises different uncertainties. Planning is conceived as a process of exploring alternative futures by visioning and analytical methods and of agreeing on a desired/ planned future and on how to get there. The conceptual framework has been used as a basis for two case studies of the preparation of metropolitan plans: the Livable Region Strategic Plan 1996 for Greater Vancouver, Canada; and the Regional Framework for Growth Management 1995 for South East Queensland, Australia. The case studies show that all five types of uncertainties were perceived by people actively involved in metropolitan planning. The types and level of uncertainties perceived changed through the planning process according to stages in the process, activities in the process and other events. In exploring alternative futures and a desired future, the planning process raises uncertainties and these have to be addressed and dealt with in order to reach agreement about the final plan. The case studies show that uncertainties in plan preparation were dealt with in the following five ways: • Avoided by deleting these aspects or elements of the desired future; • Deferred to a later planning process; • Referred to be dealt with by a different organisation; • Resolved by additional information collection, agreements or consultation; and • Retained in the plan and reviewed with the passage of time or contingent events. The studies also show that how uncertainties are managed, and particularly how uncertainties are dealt with in reaching agreement about the planned future, directly affects the nature and contents of the metropolitan plan produced. In this process of reaching agreement, there is a tension between achieving better or achieving more certain outcomes. How agreement occurs is affected by the interests and views of powerful groups in the decision-making process. Overall, the research shows that a focus on uncertainties assists in understanding the planning process and its outputs and that metropolitan planning can be usefully conceived as a process of understanding and managing uncertainties. Based on this research, on planning theories and on risk management models, a framework for understanding and managing uncertainties in metropolitan plan-making is proposed, involving five main stages, namely: • Initiate the planning process; • Identify the uncertainties and planning approach; • Identify the Desired Future; • Agree on the Planned Future; and • Implement the plan. The management framework involves specific methods and processes for understanding and managing uncertainties in metropolitan plan-making. The aim of the framework is to agree on a better future for a metropolitan region, compared to the trend, and with more certainty of achievement. The theories or concepts that we use to represent events and their relationships determine the kinds of action we can envisage. In the quest for certainty about better future outcomes for metropolitan regions, this thesis shows that understanding and managing uncertainty provides a powerful guide to action.

Metropolitan regions around the world are growing rapidly and face a complex and uncertain future. Plans for metropolitan regions cover large geographic areas, address a wide range of issues, and involve governments and many other organizations. They are prepared and implemented over a long timeframe. Planning for the future of metropolitan regions involves addressing uncertainties about future trends, external events, organisational intentions, political agendas and community values. In this thesis, it is argued that traditional planning approaches that emphasise what is known or thought to be known need to be turned on their head and the focus of planning efforts aimed directly at understanding what is unknown or needs to be known, i.e. at uncertainties. It builds upon concepts of uncertainty from philosophy, economics, planning, management theory and psychology to develop a comprehensive and dynamic conceptual framework for understanding and managing uncertainties in metropolitan planning. Uncertainties are perceived in social processes. The conceptual framework developed in this thesis distinguishes between environmental uncertainties, which are perceived by all people in a community, and process uncertainties, which are perceived by people actively involved in a planning process. The framework identifies five types of uncertainties to be understood and managed in planning: external uncertainties; chance events; causal uncertainties; organisational uncertainties; and value uncertainties. Planning processes envisage and construct alternative futures and each of these alternatives raises different uncertainties. Planning is conceived as a process of exploring alternative futures by visioning and analytical methods and of agreeing on a desired/ planned future and on how to get there. The conceptual framework has been used as a basis for two case studies of the preparation of metropolitan plans: the Livable Region Strategic Plan 1996 for Greater Vancouver, Canada; and the Regional Framework for Growth Management 1995 for South East Queensland, Australia. The case studies show that all five types of uncertainties were perceived by people actively involved in metropolitan planning. The types and level of uncertainties perceived changed through the planning process according to stages in the process, activities in the process and other events. In exploring alternative futures and a desired future, the planning process raises uncertainties and these have to be addressed and dealt with in order to reach agreement about the final plan. The case studies show that uncertainties in plan preparation were dealt with in the following five ways: • Avoided by deleting these aspects or elements of the desired future; • Deferred to a later planning process; • Referred to be dealt with by a different organisation; • Resolved by additional information collection, agreements or consultation; and • Retained in the plan and reviewed with the passage of time or contingent events. The studies also show that how uncertainties are managed, and particularly how uncertainties are dealt with in reaching agreement about the planned future, directly affects the nature and contents of the metropolitan plan produced. In this process of reaching agreement, there is a tension between achieving better or achieving more certain outcomes. How agreement occurs is affected by the interests and views of powerful groups in the decision-making process. Overall, the research shows that a focus on uncertainties assists in understanding the planning process and its outputs and that metropolitan planning can be usefully conceived as a process of understanding and managing uncertainties. Based on this research, on planning theories and on risk management models, a framework for understanding and managing uncertainties in metropolitan plan-making is proposed, involving five main stages, namely: • Initiate the planning process; • Identify the uncertainties and planning approach; • Identify the Desired Future; • Agree on the Planned Future; and • Implement the plan. The management framework involves specific methods and processes for understanding and managing uncertainties in metropolitan plan-making. The aim of the framework is to agree on a better future for a metropolitan region, compared to the trend, and with more certainty of achievement. The theories or concepts that we use to represent events and their relationships determine the kinds of action we can envisage. In the quest for certainty about better future outcomes for metropolitan regions, this thesis shows that understanding and managing uncertainty provides a powerful guide to action.

在全球經濟化形式下，新資訊時代的變化帶來企業所面臨環境有更高的不確定性，市場變幻莫測，國際經濟環境動盪，企業的生存面臨著前所未有的挑戰，世界金融危機所帶來的困境、裁員、企業升級等危機，這些都迫使企業經營者不得不去思考如何應對環境快速變化之特性及採取必要的經營策略。企業在劇烈的環境變化中如何發揮自身的競爭優勢，並與其他企業合作互贏，來應對外部持續變化的不確定環境。 本研究由文獻資料分析出企業所面臨不確定環境中所應用的策略，確認不確定環境中可採用的策略方法，對競合策略、企業文化、企業創新與轉型、SWOT分析法及平衡計分卡進行歸納總結。 本文以膠帶行業一集團中的子公司為研究對象，對膠帶行業的產業結構進行分析，重點介紹大陸PVC市場並對膠帶行業未來的發展趨勢進行預測展望。再對企業目前所處的策略地域、經濟環境、企業環境、環保趨勢進行分析。運用價值網、SWOT分析法、平衡計分卡等分析方法對企業目前的運營狀況進行總結，研究企業現推行的經營策略及未來發展之路，並在最後得出企業實施策略後的成長效益進行總結。 / In the global economic times, the change of new information age cause the business has to faced greater uncertainties environment, the market is uncertain, international economic environment unrest, the enterprise is faced with unprecedented challenges and the world financial crisis brought difficulties, downsizing and enterprises upgraded etc. All these forces managers to think how to solve the problem of environmental rapid changes and take necessary measures . Enterprises how to play its own competitive advantage and cooperation with other enterprises in the severe changes environmental , how to fit the constantly changing environment. This research based on the documentation to analysis of strategy when enterprise in the unsure environment.This research to confirm the strategy could adopted in the unsure environment. Summarize the Co-opetition,corporate culture, innovation and change, swot analysis and balanced scorecard This thesis study with a group of the subsidiary in the tape industry.To analysis the industrial structure and focus on the plastic PVC market of China.The future development tendency of tape industry forecasted.Then analysis strategic areas of enterprises, business environment, corporate environment and the trend of environmental protection.Analysis the present state of the enterprise with the vuale net,SWOT anaylsis and balanced scorecard to research the present operate strategy and the direction of future development.At last,come to the benefits of growth after the enterprises implement strategy.

De flesta företag strävar i huvudsak efter att maximera värdet av sitt företag och ett sätt att öka värdet av företaget kan vara att genomföra investeringar. En viktig faktor för att lyckas med sina investeringar är att skapa en strategi och att följa denna är avgörande för att nå dit man vill. Strategier kan utformas på olika sätt, men gemensamt för alla strategier är att de måste hantera osäkerhet. Syftet med denna uppsats är att undersöka vad små- och medelstora företag upplever som osäkerhet vid investeringar samt hur företagen hanterar dessa. Valet av små- och medelstora företag grundar sig på att den största delen av tidigare forskning inom detta ämne är gjord på stora företag.   Forskningsstrategin för denna studie är explorativ, eftersom vi strävar efter att öka förståelsen kring ett delvis outforskat område. Vi har valt att avgränsa urvalet till företag inom industrisektorn i nordöstra Skåne. Studien utgörs av en kvalitativ metod, där djupgående intervjuer har genomförts med sex respondenter på olika företag. Tillsammans med respondenternas åsikter och tidigare forskning görs tolkningar av materialet vilket bidrar till skapande av slutsatser. De främsta slutsatserna som kan dras från denna uppsats är att osäkerhet vid investeringar hanteras väldigt olika beroende på företag, trots att de är verksamma inom samma sektor. Företagen använder olika typer av strategier för att hantera vad de upplever som osäkerhet, vissa i större utsträckning än andra.  Med denna uppsats önskar vi öka förståelsen för vilka osäkerheter som finns vid investeringar samt för hur denna osäkerhet kan hanteras. Vår intension är att små och medelstora företag ska, med hjälp av denna studie, kunna känna sig säkrare i sina investeringsbeslut i framtiden. Säkrare beslut leder till minskad osäkerhet och därmed ökar chanserna för lönsamma investeringar. / Most companies’ main goal is to maximize the value of their company and one way to increase the value of the company can be to invest. An important factor in order to succeed with an investment is to create a strategy and stick to it. Strategies can be structured in different ways, but what they all have in common is the need to manage uncertainties. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate what kind of uncertainty small- and medium sized enterprises experience when they invest, as well as how they manage this. Our selection of small- and medium sized enterprises is based on the fact that the majority of previous research within this particular subject investigates large companies. The research strategy in this thesis is mainly exploratory, since our goal is to increase the knowledge within this partly unexplored subject. We chose to narrow our selection down to companies within the industrial sector in the North East of Skåne. This thesis consists of a qualitative method, where in-depth interviews were conducted with six respondents from different companies. Together with the opinions from the respondents and previous research, interpretations were made which made it possible to create conclusions. The primary conclusion to be drawn from this thesis is that investment uncertainty can be managed in different ways depending on the company, even though the companies are operating within the same sector. The companies use different types of strategies in order to manage what they experience as uncertainty, although some of them use the strategies more than others. We wish to increase the understanding and the knowledge of existing uncertainties as well as how to manage these. Our intension is to help small- and medium sized enterprises feel more secure about their investment decisions in the future.  Safer decision-making results in reduced uncertainty thus increase the chances of making profitable investments.

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Operating and interacting in an environment requires the ability to manage uncertainty and to choose definite courses of action. In this thesis we look to Bayesian probability theory as the means to achieve the former, and find that through rigorous application of the rules it prescribes we can, in theory, solve problems of decision making under uncertainty. Unfortunately such methodology is intractable in realworld problems, and thus approximation of one form or another is inevitable. Many techniques make use of heuristic procedures for managing uncertainty. We note that such methods suffer unreliable performance and rely on the specification of ad-hoc variables. Performance is often judged according to long-term asymptotic performance measures which we also believe ignores the most complex and relevant parts of the problem domain. We therefore look to develop principled approximate methods that preserve the meaning of Bayesian theory but operate with the scalability of heuristics. We start doing this by looking at function approximation in continuous state and action spaces using Gaussian Processes. We develop a novel family of covariance functions which allow tractable inference methods to accommodate some of the uncertainty lost by not following full Bayesian inference. We also investigate the exploration versus exploitation tradeoff in the context of the Multi-Armed Bandit, and demonstrate that principled approximations behave close to optimal behaviour and perform significantly better than heuristics on a range of experimental test beds.