Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina. Centro Tecnologico / Made available in DSpace on 2012-10-16T22:28:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0Bitstream added on 2016-01-08T17:50:50Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 88943.pdf: 3440927 bytes, checksum: 48078ab4bd5d8852742c98d7aaee2146 (MD5) / Este trabalho de pesquisa tem por objetivo, em essência, realizar uma investigação empírica sobre o comportamento do processo inflacionário, procurando verificar as relações entre oferta monetária, preços, salários, taxa de juros, taxas de câmbio, dívida federal e uso da capacidade instalada (hiato do produto) no período de janeiro de 1971 a dezembro de 1991, bem como detectar as mudanças estruturais ocorridas e investigar se os choques de oferta influênciam na direção de causalidade entre as variáveis no período amostral analisado, através da utilização das modelagens Clássica e Bayesiana. Para análise de séries temporais também foi proposto um algoritmo de monitoração de dados que permite detectar "outliers" nas séries temporais que podem provocar mudanças na direção de causalidade de variáveis econômicas.

Research by political scientists on the modern welfare state focuses on its historical development and on the emergence of distinctive welfare state regimes. Research conducted in the past decade has also been concerned with the implications for the welfare state of the recurrent crises which have afflicted western economies since the late 1970's. However, while the politics of building welfare states are now better understood, there remains little systematic study of the politics of their retrenchment, a phenomenon which has been under way for the past two decades in most advanced capitalist states. This study examines the politics of retrenchment in Canada over the period 1978 to 1993. Focusing on three categories of federal income security programmes (family benefits, retirement income programmes, and Unemployment Insurance), the thesis describes a gradual shift in programme design away from universality and toward greater selectivity. Concomitant with this development was an increasing reliance on the tax system as an instrument of social policy. Applying Gosta Esping-Andersen's analysis of welfare state regimes, the thesis contends that the cumulative effect of programme retrenchment during this period was to reinforce the liberal-residualist character of Canada's welfare state at the expense of its social democratic aspects. In an effort to explain the process of welfare state retrenchment in Canada, within and between different categories of income security programmes, the thesis tests hypotheses associated with three major approaches to the study of public policy: class analysis, institutionalism, and pluralism. The thesis concludes that retrenchment in Canada was broadly facilitated by a decline in the political power resources of labour in relation to those of business. Because of the weakness of the relevant non-class pressure groups, pluralism is of limited value in explaining retrenchment outcomes. Insights into more specific patterns of retrenchment are gained from two institutionalist perspectives. The first of these, a state-centred approach, draws attention to the larger role in social policy-making that was assumed by the Department of Finance, the chief fiscal guardian of the Federal Government. The second perspective, a rational choice theory developed by Paul Pierson, provides insight into the manner in which certain retrenchment measures were formulated. Based on Kent Weaver's blame-avoidance thesis, Pierson's model provides a persuasive explanation for the reliance of Canadian governments on arcane changes to tax rules and indexation formulae as an instrument of retrenchment. Since each of the analyses provides at best only a partial explanation for the politics of welfare state retrenchment, the thesis proposes the scheme of an integrated approach which incorporates the explanatory power of class analysis and institutionalism.

Research by political scientists on the modern welfare state focuses on its historical development and on the emergence of distinctive welfare state regimes. Research conducted in the past decade has also been concerned with the implications for the welfare state of the recurrent crises which have afflicted western economies since the late 1970's. However, while the politics of building welfare states are now better understood, there remains little systematic study of the politics of their retrenchment, a phenomenon which has been under way for the past two decades in most advanced capitalist states. This study examines the politics of retrenchment in Canada over the period 1978 to 1993. Focusing on three categories of federal income security programmes (family benefits, retirement income programmes, and Unemployment Insurance), the thesis describes a gradual shift in programme design away from universality and toward greater selectivity. Concomitant with this development was an increasing reliance on the tax system as an instrument of social policy. Applying Gosta Esping-Andersen's analysis of welfare state regimes, the thesis contends that the cumulative effect of programme retrenchment during this period was to reinforce the liberal-residualist character of Canada's welfare state at the expense of its social democratic aspects. In an effort to explain the process of welfare state retrenchment in Canada, within and between different categories of income security programmes, the thesis tests hypotheses associated with three major approaches to the study of public policy: class analysis, institutionalism, and pluralism. The thesis concludes that retrenchment in Canada was broadly facilitated by a decline in the political power resources of labour in relation to those of business. Because of the weakness of the relevant non-class pressure groups, pluralism is of limited value in explaining retrenchment outcomes. Insights into more specific patterns of retrenchment are gained from two institutionalist perspectives. The first of these, a state-centred approach, draws attention to the larger role in social policy-making that was assumed by the Department of Finance, the chief fiscal guardian of the Federal Government. The second perspective, a rational choice theory developed by Paul Pierson, provides insight into the manner in which certain retrenchment measures were formulated. Based on Kent Weaver's blame-avoidance thesis, Pierson's model provides a persuasive explanation for the reliance of Canadian governments on arcane changes to tax rules and indexation formulae as an instrument of retrenchment. Since each of the analyses provides at best only a partial explanation for the politics of welfare state retrenchment, the thesis proposes the scheme of an integrated approach which incorporates the explanatory power of class analysis and institutionalism. / Arts, Faculty of / Political Science, Department of / Graduate

Ce mémoire porte sur le discours de la Banque du Canada durant les années 80. Après avoir exposé les théories néolibérale, keynésienne et marxiste, l'auteur présente rapidement l'histoire monétaire canadienne et la période socio-économique des années 1975 à 1995. L'analyse des rapports annuels de la Banque du Canada des années 80 nous apprend que la Banque admet les effets négatifs de ses politiques, qui ralentissent la croissance économique, augmentent le chômage et amplifient les récessions. Ces effets « à court terme » permettront de soutenir à long terme une croissance non inflationniste. C'est d'ailleurs l'inflation, et non le chômage, qui est présentée comme le grand mal qui cause l'injustice et effrite les sociétés démocratiques, ce qui aurait été le cas lors des traumatisantes années 70. Bien que salaires et profits soient tous deux inflationnistes, les salaires sont systématiquement dénoncés par la Banque comme inflationnistes alors que la croissance des profits est souvent présentée comme positive et stimulant l'investissement. Malgré cette opposition, les employeurs et employés sont invités à lutter « ensemble » contre l'inflation, négative pour tous. La Banque soutient la déréglementation des marchés financiers alors que ces derniers exercent des pressions, souvent spéculatives, qui poussent au durcissement des politiques de la Banque. De leur côté, les « résistances » de l'État ou du « marché du travail » aux pressions des marchés sont dénoncées, car elles augmenteraient le chômage et la stagnation. La Banque dénonce la croissance de l'endettement privé et public canadien, l'endettement public étasunien et celui du Tiers-Monde. Cette croissance, surtout expliquée par l'inflation, est influencée par les politiques restrictives de taux d'intérêt élevés. L'augmentation des paiements d'intérêts qui en découle limite l'endettement privé et accroît l'endettement public. Par contre, la Banque n'admet jamais directement que sa politique monétaire restrictive a augmenté la dette publique canadienne. Enfin, la Banque appuie constamment les banques privées canadiennes, très impliquées dans la Crise de la dette des pays du Tiers-Monde. Cette situation permet de constater le parti pris de la Banque pour le capital et contre le travail, ce qu'elle ne met jamais en relief dans son discours d'orientation néolibérale.