My dissertation research provides first systematic analysis of women’s early voting behavior. The key contribution of this thesis is that women’s suffrage made a significant dent into electoral politics. Such finding provides a direct contradiction to the so frequent claim that women voted as their husbands for most of the twentieth century. The thesis consists of three separate chapters, each addressing a distinct puzzle in the literature. In the first paper, I argue that, contrary to most of the extant literature, women contributed to the victory of the Republican Party in the 1920 election outside of the Black Belt. In the second paper, I argue that women in Protestant countries supported parties that appealed to their welfare and suffrage preferences in the first election after the vote was won. In the third paper, I argue that the redistributive effects of women’s suffrage were mediated by women’s support for parties with redistributive agendas. The key argument of this thesis is that women tended to vote on their redistributive preferences. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that women supported conservative parties, I find robust evidence that women’s suffrage mostly benefitted parties with redistributive agendas. While my research does not seek to challenge the notion that women held socially conservative preferences, it directly contradicts the notion that women voted on such preferences for conservative parties. In the Catholic South, women’s support for Christian Democratic parties most likely reflected women’s preference for Christian Democratic type of the welfare state, which emphasized family values. In the Protestant North, women supported Socialist parties for their welfare preferences, particularly once they entered the workforce. But even at the time of suffrage, women were mainly attracted to parties on the left, responding to both their welfare and suffrage appeals to women.

This work has three core aims; to quantify the extent to which women stood as council candidates and were elected between 1918 and 1938; to assess the influences on the backgrounds of women seeking election in that period; and to examine a sample of women elected to determine how far they retained separate spheres reflecting gendered interests or were able to join male colleagues in wider council roles. The findings show patchy progress with far slower growth on county councils than in London and only one or two women councillors present at any one time on some important councils. Council culture and political geography were causes of low representation. Women increasingly needed access to political parties to be candidates, but the presence of a political battleground and the nature of local social leadership were equally important. London women needed to be politically driven from the outset whereas some towns elected women recognised as community leaders rather than politicians. Women councillors had experience of suffrage activism, voluntary work, as Poor Law guardians and of committee co-option. They could remain in office for decades. Women were concentrated on committees of domestic interest, but their activities changed as state intervention increasingly influenced family life. By addressing topics such as birth control, the special interest of women councillors became a very public discussion of a previously private domestic matter. Women also took on public roles as committee chairman or mayors. This blurring between public and private spheres is of relevance to wider discussion about women’s activism as they gained in citizenship. Despite slow progress over 1,400 women contributed as councillors in this period with a very practical style and determined tenacity. This overview of their distribution, origins and activities shows an uneven spread of women councillors with divided political views, but unity in seeking improvement in family life.

This paper seeks to examine the impact of electoral websites on young people’s electoral engagement, focusing on the 2012 London Mayoral and US Presidential election. It does so by employing an innovative research design to connect the supply and demand side of the equation, including quantitative content analysis and an innovative experiment that allows for qualitative evaluation as well as for an examination of the causal effects of exposure to specific websites. The three specific types of websites examined in each election are: youth mobilization websites, the official candidate campaigning websites and Vote Advice Applications. We explore the effects of these websites on behavioural, cognitive and attitudinal aspects of engagement: likelihood of voting, attention to news, internal and external efficacy and political trust. Research to date on the effect of electoral websites on young people has produced mixed results on political engagement and efficacy (e.g. Tedesco, 2007; Xenos and Kyoung, 2008). We find no direct effect on young people for voting across the websites but we do find a number of significant effects across the other variables, which are occasionally found only amongst those with the lowest pre-existing levels of engagement. This leads us to conclude that the web can create a pathway to participation for young people but this is dependent on the specific type and attributes of the website, the election context and the young person themselves.

This thesis is about how elected politicians stay in power and about some of its economic and social consequences, fundamental political economy questions. It takes advantage of the decentralized political structure in the Philippines to test models of voter and politician behavior. In doing so, it contributes to the literature on clientelism and retrospective voting. In Chapter One, I assess the impacts of targeted government transfers on a local incumbent's electoral performance. I use the randomized roll-out of a CCT program in the Philippines where a number of municipalities are tightly controlled by political dynasties. In a competitive political environment, incumbent vote share is 26 percentage-points higher in municipalities where the program was implemented in all villages than in municipalities where the program was implemented in half of them. The program had no impact in municipalities with low levels of political competition. In Chapter Two, I test for the presence of political business cycles in Philippine municipalities over the period 2003-2009, a context where according to the literature such cycles are likely to be observed. I find robust evidence for the presence of political business. This effect is only present when I use quarterly data and vanishes when I aggregate the data at the yearly-level. The difference is not merely driven by a decline in statistical power due to aggregation: point estimates for the overall effects are 7 times larger when I use quarterly data than when I use yearly data. This discrepancy can be explained by a drop in employment post-election that dilutes the yearly effects. In Chapter Three, we estimate the impacts of being connected to local politicians, either currently in office or in opposition, on occupational choice. We use a large administrative dataset collected between 2008 and 2010 on all individuals in 700 Philippine municipalities along with information on all candidates in the 2007 and 2010 municipal elections. We rely on local naming conventions to assess blood and marriage links between households. Using individuals connected to successful candidates in the 2010 elections that did not run in 2007 as a control group, we find that connections to current office-holders increase the likelihood of being employed in better paying occupations. Individuals connected to candidates that were close to being elected in 2007 are less likely to be employed in better paying occupations.

This thesis seeks for an explanation of social mobilisation by examining the nuts and bolts of the institutional design of democracies. Since the nature of executive-legislative relations in democracy is an important influence on the distribution of policy outcomes between actors in society, and consequently on the extent of support (or inclusion) of citizens to the way power is exercised, the present work investigates how pure presidentialism (and the whole range of institutional accessories that can be combined with this particular executive) affects the opportunities and constraints for social mobilisation. This is done by conducting a within-format comparison across pure presidential regimes in Latin America, where most pure presidential regimes are located. The thesis is grounded in both quantitative and qualitative methods of research. Quantitatively, protest events are measured across time and space and the parameters are estimated through pooled cross-sectional time-series models for count data. Qualitatively, three case studies are examined: Bolivia (electoral rules), Ecuador (non-legislative and legislative presidential power) and Venezuela (party system). The main findings of this study are: Within presidential systems social mobilisation is more likely to occur whenever: (1) presidents are selected in runoff elections in the assembly, and (2) constitutions allow the immediate re-election of the president. However, the prospects for social mobilisation are not significantly affected by the extent to which electoral formulae promote the entry of parties to the assembly. As regards to the relative powers of the presidency and the legislature, the extent of the decree and veto powers of the president do not affect the occurrence of social mobilisation. Instead, the probability of contentious action is greater whenever (3) the capacity of legislatures to censure and sanction the members of the executive is low; and (4) legislatures have weak authority over public spending. Lastly, it is shown that the probability of social mobilisation does not vary across majoritarian and minority governments; neither is social mobilisation susceptible to the levels of electoral volatility in the legislature. Rather, (5) social mobilisation is highest whenever the pro-presidential contingent in the legislature is dominated by one large political party. The thesis thus concludes by strongly advocating for the inclusion of the format of the executive as an important variable in the comparative study of social mobilisation and of the substantive outputs of a democracy, in general.

The European Union is often criticized for having a democratic deficit, and most often cited are the shortcomings in citizen inputs. The complex institutional structure, in particular the dual channel of representation (supranational and intergovernmental), contributes to these concerns. This thesis thus examines what impacts the linkage between citizens and their elected representatives in the direct channel of representation. I refer to this linkage as the "electoral connection" and outline three related input criteria: Competent Citizens: Citizens can competently assign policy responsibility and hold their representatives to account; Meaningful Choices: Citizens have meaningful choices at election time; and Substantive Representation: Elected officials are representative of their constituents. The theoretical framework of the electoral connection is based in substantive representation, and focuses on the mandate conception of representation but also includes a discussion of accountability. I utilize European Election Studies (EES) voter, media, and candidate studies from 2009, EES voter and candidate studies from 1994, and a novel expert survey on EU responsibility (2010). The analyses of responsibility attributions and vote choice are conducted using multilevel modelling to assess individual- and contextual-level determinants. I test the effect that information and political attitudes, specifically extreme attitudes have on the first two criteria of the direct electoral connection. The role of information is tested at the individual level through political sophistication, and at the contextual level through the politicization of the EU issue. The first criterion is tested by comparing citizen and expert attributions of responsibility. For the second criterion, two chapters which examine perceived party positions and issue-cross pressure assess how this impacts the electoral connection. The final empirical chapter is a descriptive analysis of congruence on policy priorities and preference for governmental responsibility to assess substantive representation. If there is some understanding of responsibility, and citizens have selected parties that align with their preferred policy positions, then we should expect government to be representative of its constituents. One contribution is defining an expanded definition of the electoral connection. In addition I show that political sophistication and issue politicization have a positive impact on the electoral connection, while attitude extremity generally has a negative impact. Furthermore, the European Parliament is quite representative of its constituents. Concerns about democratic deficit and lack of representation in the European Union are overstated.

Valid measurement of voter turnout is crucial to electoral studies. One major problem in obtaining valid turnout measurements is over-reporting, i.e. survey respondents who did not vote report having voted. Aiming to identify effective solutions to turnout over-reporting, this doctoral thesis consists of four separate but interrelated papers , plus introductory and concluding chapters. The introductory chapter reviews the causes and consequences of turnout over-reporting, providing the basis for an in-depth research into solutions. Each of the papers then addresses a question about solutions. Paper 1 critically re-examines an influential study of turnout over-reporting. The examination results highlight the need for better solutions to over-reporting. Addressing the question of "What is out there?", Paper 2 conducts a meta-analysis of studies that have experimented on innovative solutions to turnout over-reporting. Addressing the question of "What works?", Paper 3 experimentally compares two promising solutions – item-count and pipeline techniques – and finds that the former is, overall, better than the latter for preventing turnout over-reporting. Addressing the question of "Can we do better?", Paper 4 improves the design and analysis of the item-count technique, making it an even better solution to turnout over-reporting. From the results of these research papers, the concluding chapter considers the implications for developing effective solutions to turnout over-reporting, and laying the foundations for future advances in the measurement of turnout. Furthermore, the concluding chapter also discusses how the results of this doctoral research can contribute beyond election studies, towards scientific studies on a wide range of topics on which people often misreport.

It has long been argued that underlying values should hold a central role in political analysis. This would seem particularly relevant in an era of de-alignment and catch-all parties in which political actors often make direct values orientated appeals to the electorate. With the expansion in appropriate data and measures available to empirical researchers, the last two decades have seen a substantial increase in the number of studies directly addressing the values-voting relationship. Values based explanations of vote choice have contributed to a more nuanced understanding of the processes underlying voter preferences and the structure of public opinion within democratic electorates. This existing empirical literature has generally focused on analysing the role of values on voting in single electoral contexts. While this approach has generated many useful findings that establish the role of values in differentiating political choice, it has only partially explored the contextual mechanisms through which values influence vote choice. This is necessary in order to understand under what political conditions values are likely to become more relevant to vote choice decisions. This thesis is an attempt to address three aspects of this gap in the cross-national research literature on values and voting using analyses of data from the 1990 and 2008 waves of the European Values Survey. Firstly it provides a cross-national analysis of core political values that enables a comparison of the role of values in structuring electoral competition across 15 West European countries. Secondly, it estimates the role that left-right political identity has in mediating the influence of values on vote choice using a structural path model. This provides a cross-national test of this mechanism and therefore assesses variation in the values-voting relationship across different national contexts. Thirdly, the thesis provides a systematic empirical analysis of the influence of political context on the values-voting relationship by testing the effect that macro level system factors, such as polarisation and the number of parties, have on the influence of values. The headline findings of the thesis are that political values are dynamic constructs that can demonstrate subtle variations in the preferences of voters across different electoral contexts. Political values have a multi-dimensional influence on electoral choice; with variation in voter preferences being highlighted by both value differentiation (having opposite preferences for the same value dimension) and emphasis (having a preference for different values). Left-right identity can act as both a mediator and a confounder of political values influence on vote choice. Political context is primarily relevant to the influence of values on voting through the content of supply side party competition as opposed to the structure of that competition. Overall, the study argues the findings show that supply side political context plays a crucial role in defining the parameters and strength of the values-voting relationship in each specific electoral arena.

This research both develops new methods and expands upon existing methodologies in order to improve our understanding of voting patterns and party competition in Britain. The thesis comprises five sections, each of which relates to a particular research focus. The first and principal section describes the process of determining a new method for decomposing electoral bias for three-party competition under simple plurality rules of voting. The study of electoral bias is important for voting systems that requires periodic boundary reviews intended to equalise electorate and to remove malapportionment. These papers describe both the process for developing the threeparty bias method and later its application to UK general elections from 1983 onwards. The second section uses aggregate data gathered for the elections to the Greater London Authority in order to understand the patterns of electoral support across the capital, particularly support for minor parties. A considerable amount of research effort has been expended upon providing reliable models for electoral forecasting both in the UK and elsewhere. The third section includes a paper that develops a forecast model that utilises aggregate local election data to estimate national vote shares for the three main parties in the UK. A fourth section brings together a series of papers that are linked by the themes of voter behaviour, either in terms of geographical or ballot context. A study of voter turnout in a London borough describes the relationship between proximity to polling station and electoral turnout at different types of election. A 8 number of papers included in this section also detail the effects of candidate ballot order on electoral support. The fifth and final section groups together two papers that using individual-level survey data to describe the pattern of candidate recruitment for local elections in Britain and, specifically, the under-recruitment of both women and Black, Asian and other minority ethnic candidates.

Pendant ces dernières années il y a eu aussi beaucoup des recherches axées à analyser pourquoi souvent les élections ne respectent pas ces standards, quel est leur rôle dans les régimes hybrides et autocratiques, et il y a aussi des recherches qui enquêtent notamment les fraudes électorales. Cette thèse propose une contribution dans le débat et elle souligne que les études sur les fraudes électorales on souvent sous-traitées : les dimensions internationales. Ces dimensions sont conceptualisées dans deux façonnes. La première concerne la pression démocratisant occidentale et comment elle peut influencer le changement et/ou l’évolution des fraudes électorales. La deuxième, concerne les dynamiques des socialisations en terme d’échange d’informations parmi les régimes hybrides par rapport diffèrent modalités de fraudes électorales. Selon mes analyses dans les cas où il y a une pression démocratisant occidentale plus forte les autorités locales changent les méthodes des fraudes électorales. Ce changement ne doit pas être considéré forcement comme un amélioration de l’intégrité électoral tout court. Plutôt, avec l’amélioration des cadres légales de la gestion électorale, les autorités modifient les fraudes pour essayer d’éluder le criticisme occidental. En autre, pour bien modifier les méthodes des fraudes électorales les autorités d’un pays recourent à des pratiques d’apprentissage tout en regardant les expériences des autres pays. Ces arguments théoriques ont été vérifiés sur trois cas d’études, notamment Armenia, Azerbaïdjan et Géorgie. Ces pays ont des caractéristiques en commune, qui permettent des analyses diachroniques et synchroniques concernant les fraudes électorales à partir de leurs indépendances de l’Union Soviétique. / During the last years many research have been conducted to analyse why elections fail, what is their role in hybrid as well as authoritarian regimes, and there is a growing stream of literature that is investigating electoral frauds and electoral malpractices. This thesis provides a contribution in this debate by pointing to one of the less analysed factors in the study of electoral frauds and electoral malpractices, which is the international dimension. The latter is conceptualized in two ways: the first one relates to Western democratizing pressure and how it can affect the change or the evolution of electoral frauds and malpractices. The second one concerns socialization dynamics in terms of methods of frauds and malpractices among authorities in different countries. It is argued that where there is a stronger Western democratizing pressure authorities change the way they conduct elections, even if this change does not forcefully means democratization. Rather, along with formal improvements in elections management, authorities alter and modify methods of frauds and malpractices as a way to elude Western criticism. In order to properly modify electoral frauds and malpractices, authorities resort to learning practices by looking at other experiences. These theoretical arguments have been verified on three cases study, which are Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. These countries share some key characteristics, which allowed for cross-temporal and spatial analysis regarding electoral frauds and malpractices since their independence from the Soviet Union.