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This thesis examines the reconceptualisation of war as risk management. It is suggested that recent wars exhibit repetitive patterns revolving around the central concem of managing systemic risks to security in an age of globalisation. It implies continuity where one might expect discontinuity in US and British campaigns over Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq from 1998-2003, given the different US Administrations and strategic contexts involved. The challenges it poses relate to 'classical' notions associated, rightly or wrongly, with war such as 'noble' heroic purposes, to decisive outcomes in the form of surrender ceremonies. Such notions have hampered a proper appreciation of the various forms war can take. Furthermore, the predominant International Relations (IR) approach relating to war and security - Realism- appears to contribute incomplete explanations to these wars. The alternative perspective developed here is based on 'risk management'. Underpinning this study is what sociologists call the Risk Society where risk management has emerged as an axial organising principle. Social science disciplines, notably sociology and criminology, have incorporated these theories into their research agendas, yielding richer perspectives as a result. Yet, IR has largely not done so in a concerted way, despite its inherently cross-disciplinary nature and increased prominence of risk in the strategic context. The framework informing this study is thus adapted from recent theorising on risk management strategies in the wider social sciences. The purpose is to systematically analyse using the theoretical framework developed herein, how concepts of proactive risk management such as active anticipation, the precautionary principle, 'reshaping the environment' and appreciating 'non-events' can be usefully applied to understanding contemporary war and IR.

Cette recherche analyse la médiation dans la résolution des conflits internationaux, à partir de deux interventions médiatives de Martti Ahtisaari, au milieu des années 2000. Cet ancien secrétaire général-adjoint des Nations unies, ancien président finlandais, prix Nobel de la paix 2008, se voit comme l'homme du centre et non l'homme du milieu. Il se perçoit intimement comme l'homme-de de la paix, son véritable co-décideur. Cette étude dévoile sa coulisse médiative selon une approche empruntée à E. Goffman. Ce travail s'appuie sur une trentaine d'entretiens, réalisées avec des personnalités impliqués dans le deux médiations. Notre approche donne la parole aux «adversaires médiatifs» du célèbre finlandais sous-représentés dans la littérature disponible, à l'instar de l'expert australien Damien Kingsbury. Nous avons aussi mobilisé des images animées ou fixes ; certaines sont inédites. La thèse examine les rapports entre médiation et négociation, via le rôle de divers acteurs internationaux, comme le ONG, l'UE, les États-Unis et l'ONU. / This research analyzes mediation in the resolution of international conflicts, based on two mediation processes run by Martti Ahtisaari in the mid of 2000s. This former Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations, former Finnish President, Nobel Peace Prize 2008 sees himself as the center man and not the middle man. Equally, he is convinced that he is the key man of peace and remains its true co-decision-maker. This study reveals its mediation slide based on an approach borrowed from E. Goffman. This work is based on some thirty interviews, made with personalities involved in bath mediation processes. Our approach also gives voice to the famous "Finnish mediative opponents", who are underrepresented in the available literature, such as the Australian expert Damien Kingsbury. We also mobilized moving or fixed images; some of which are unpublished. The thesis examines the relationship between mediation and negotiation, throughout the role of various international actors such as NGOs, the EU, the United States and the UN.

Cette thèse a pour objet d’étudier la façon dont sont constitués et utilisés les systèmes de références des acteurs politiques dans les conflits du Moyen-Orient, de telle sorte que ces références deviennent des normes, par rapport auxquelles leurs actions sont conditionnées. Ceci en prenant en compte à la fois la dimension étatique dans la création de ces normes, et les initiatives privées, et la façon dont ces deux dimensions dialoguent. Par ailleurs, compte tenu du contexte de la mondialisation, cette étude prend en compte la dimension de métissage de ces références. Pour ce faire, elle procède par l’étude des mémoriaux et musées d’une part, et d’un corpus filmique d’autre part, sur les terrains de recherche égyptien, israélien, palestinien, libanais, jordanien et turc. / The goal of this dissertation is to study the way in which references have been created and are used by political actors in the Middle-Eastern conflicts, so that these references have become norms, which are contingent to their actions. These norms can be state-created or through private initiatives, and our aim is also to study how these two dimensions interact. This dissertation also takes into account and the way these references have been mixed in the context of globalization with references from other cultural areas. This goal has been attained through the study of memorials and museums, and through the study of films, in Egypt, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey.