MSc (Statistics) / Department of Statistics / See the attached abstract below

The correct measure and definition of liquidity in finance literature remains an unresolved empirical issue. The main objective of the present study was to develop, validate and test the liquidity mismatch index (LMI) developed by Brunnermeier, Krishnamurthy and Gorton (2012) empirically. Building on the work of these prior studies, the study undertook to develop a measure of liquidity that integrates both market liquidity and funding liquidity within a context of asset liability management. Liquidity mismatch indices were developed and then tested empirically to validate them by regressing them against the known determinants of liquidity. Furthermore, the study investigated the nexus between liquidity and profitability. The unit of analysis was a panel of 12 South African banks over the period 2005–2015. The study developed two liquidity measures – the bank liquidity mismatch index (BLMI) and the aggregate liquidity mismatch index (ALMI) – whose performances were compared to and contrasted with the Basel III liquidity measures and traditional liquidity measures using a generalised method of moments (GMM) model. Overall, the two constructed liquidity indices performed better than other liquidity measures. Significantly, the ALMI provided a better macro-prudential liquidity measure that can be utilised in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, thus presenting a major contribution to the body of knowledge. Unlike the LMI, the BLMI and ALMI can be used to evaluate the liquidity of a given bank under liquidity stress events, which are scaled by theoretically motivated and empirically supported liquidity weights. The constructed BLMI contains information regarding the liquidity risk within the context of asset liability mismatches, and the measure used comprehensive data from bank balance sheets and from financial market measures. The newly developed liquidity measures are based on portfolio management theory as they account for the significance of liquidity spirals. Empirical results show that banks increase their liquidity buffers during times of turmoil as both BLMI and ALMI improved during the period 2007–2009. Subsequently, the improvement in economic performance resulted in a rise in ALMI but a decrease in BLMI. We found no evidence to support the theory that banks, which heavily depend on external funding, end up in serious liquidity problems. The findings imply that any policy implemented with the intention of increasing bank capital is good for bank liquidity since the financial fragility–crowding-out hypothesis is outweighed by the risk absorption hypothesis because the relationship between capital and bank liquidity is positive. / Finance, Risk Management and Banking / D. Phil. (Management Studies)

This study examined the determinants of commercial bank liquidity in South Africa. The panel regression approach was used, applying panel data from twelve commercial banks over the period 2006 to 2016. A quantitative research method was used to investigate the relationship between bank liquidity and some microeconomic and bank-specific factors and between bank liquidity and selected macro-economic factors. The regression analysis for four liquidity ratios was conducted using the pooled ordinary least squares regression, fixed effects, random effects and the generalised methods of moments. However, the system generalised methods of moments approach was preferred over the other methods because it eliminated the problem of endogeneity. Results show that capital adequacy, size and gross domestic product have a positive and significant effect on liquidity. Loan growth and non-performing loans had a negative and significant effect on liquidity. Inflation had both a positive and a negative but an insignificant effect on liquidity. The study concluded that South African banks could enhance their liquidity positions by tightening their loan-underwriting criteria and credit policies. Banks should improve their credit risk management frameworks to be more prudent in their lending practices to improve the quality of the loan book to enhance liquidity. They also need to grow their capital levels by embarking on efficient revenue enhancements activities. Banks may also to look at their clients on an overall basis and not on transaction bases, and they need to improve non-interest revenue by introducing innovated products. The South African Reserve Bank could push for policies that might enhance capitalisation by ensuring that the sector is consolidated and thus merging smaller banks to create banks with stronger balance sheets and stronger capital base. This study contributes to the empirical research repository on the determinants of liquidity and more specifically, it identified the significant factors that affect South African commercial bank liquidity. Identifying the determinants of South African commercial bank liquidity will provide the South African Reserve Bank with insight into ways of enhancing liquidity management reforms, to improve the sector’s liquidity management practices and help to maintain a sound and liquid banking sector. / Business Management / M. Com. (Business Management)

This study examined the nexus between bank performance and regulatory requirements in South Africa. The panel regression approach was used, which applied panel data from 12 banks that were registered in terms of the Bank Act 94 of 1990 over the period 2009 to 2019. A quantitative research approach was used to investigate the nexus between bank performance, bank regulations, bank-specific factors and some macroeconomic factors. A regression analysis was conducted on four bank performance ratios using pooled ordinary least square regression, fixed effects, random effects and generalised methods moments. The two-step generalised system methods of moments approach was preferred over the other methods because it eliminated the problem of endogeneity. The results showed that capital adequacy and size have both a positive and negative significant effect on bank performance, while interest rates, non-performing loans, liquidity coverage ratios and net stable funding ratios had a negative and significant effect on bank performance. The study concluded that South African banks could enhance their performance by tightening their credit risk assessment framework to be more prudent in their lending practices in order to improve the lending quality of their loan books. It is recommended that banks keep their capital levels at a minimum to avoid excessive risk-taking, and that they by embark on efficient revenue enhancement activities such as increasing retained earnings. Banks must further look at their clients on an overall basis, not just a transactional basis, as this will improve their non-interest revenue income by introducing innovative products. Lastly, the banks must lower their liquidity risk exposure by collectively managing their capital adequacy ratio, size of the bank, interest rates, non-performing loans, liquidity coverage ratio and net stable funding ratio. The South African Reserve Bank should tighten regulatory requirements by improving its supervision and oversight functions; banks must to adhere to lending practices and foster a healthy and adequately capitalised balance sheet. Lastly, the SARB must align its macroeconomic forecast for lending rates with regulatory requirements to ensure that economic performance is a catalyst for bank performance. This study contributes to the empirical research repository on the nexus of bank performance and regulatory requirements. More importantly, it identifies the significant factors that affect South African bank performance, by identifying the deficiencies in South Africa’s regulatory requirements, which will provide the South African Reserve Bank with insight into ways of enhancing its regulatory requirements to improve the performance, management practices and sound capital adequacy of the banking sector. / Finance, Risk Management and Banking / M.. Com. (Business Management (Finance)

The financial stability of banks is crucial if they are to fulfil their role in facilitating transactions between borrowers and lenders. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of credit risk on the South African banking industry following a movement in credit ratings by rating agencies. Data from a sample of 11 banks were collected from 2006 to 2015. Econometric regression analysis was used to analyse the data. The results show that inflation, credit ratings, exchange rate, gross domestic product, unemployment rate, capital adequacy ratio and size of the bank are significant factors that determine "non-performing loans". Therefore, it is imperative that banks continuously monitor these factors and adapt their credit policies on "non-performing loans". This action would prepare banks for any adverse effects and ensure that the banking industry remains a sound and efficient contributor to the growth of the South African economy. / Business Management / M. Com. (Business Management)

The relevance or irrelevance of dividend payments has been the topic of much discussion for the past eight decades. The primary objective of this study was to determine the relationship between dividend policy and agency problems of financial services companies listed on the (JSE). Dividend Policy and the Agency Theory underpinned the study. Secondary data of sampled listed financial companies for the period 2005-2016 was sourced from IRESS database. Data was analysed using EViews version 9. The results revealed that the presence of institutional ownership resolves the asymmetry information problems, and, reduces the need to pay dividends. The results also revealed that 54.69% of JSE listed companies under the financials’ services sector practise dividend decisions. The results further revealed that the dividend payout ratio is positively correlated with ROE and LEV, and negatively correlated INST, DIRS and FOREIGN variables. The results confirmed the existence of agency problems on listed financial services companies. / Ukubaluleka okanye ukungabaluleki kokuhlawula izahlulo bekusoloko kusisihloko sengxoxo kumashumi asibhozo eminyaka edluleyo. Injongo ephambili yesi sifundo yayikukufumanisa ulwalamano phakathi komgaqo nkqubo wezahlulelo neengxaki zobumeli (ubuarhente) beenkampani ezinikezela ngeenkonzo zemicimbi yoqoqosho nezidweliswe kwiJohannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE). Izisekelo zesi sifundo nguMgaqo Nkqubo Wezahlulo (Dividend Policy) neNgcingane Yobumeli (Agency Theory). Iqela lesibini ledatha yeenkampani ezidwelisiweyo kwiminyaka ye-2005– 2016 yafunyanwa kwiqula leedatha elaziwa ngokuba yi-IRESS database. Idatha yahlalutywa ngokusebenzisa isixhobo sohlalutyo iEViews version 9. Iziphumo zadiza ukuba ubukho babanini kwiziko loshishino buyazisombulula iingxaki zonxibelelwano olungalingani kakuhle kwaye kuyasicutha isidingo sokuhlawula izahlulo. Kwakhona, iziphumo zadiza ukuba ama-54.69% eenkampani ezidweliswe kwiJSE, phantsi kodidi lweenkampani ezinikezela ngeenkonzo zemicimbi yoqoqosho, enza izigqibo zezahlulo. Iziphumo zaphinda zadiza ukuba intlawulo yezahlulo ihambelana kakuhle neenqobo zeROE neLEV, kanti azihambelani neenqobo zeINST, ezeDIRS kunye nekuthiwa ziFOREIGN. Ezi ziphumo zangqina ukuba kukho iingxaki zobumeli/ubuarhente kwiinkampani ezinikezela ngeenkonzo zemicimbi yoqoqosho / Bonnete le go se be bonnete ga ditefelo tša letseno e bile hlogo ya ditherišano tše dintši mo mo dingwagasome tše seswai tša go feta. Nepo ya motheo ya thuto ye ke go ela kamano gare ga pholisi le mathata a dikhamphani tša ditirelo tša Matlotlo tšeo di lego lenaneong la Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE). Pholisi ya Ditseno le Teori ya Etšensi ke motheo wa thuto ye. Datha ya magareng ya dikhamphani tša mašeleng tšeo di lego lenaneong la paka ya 2005–2016 e be e hwetšagala go tšwa go lenaneo la datha la IRESS. Datha e sekasekilwe go šomišwa EViews version 9. Dipoelo di utullotše gore go ba gona ga bong ka gare ga sehlongwa go rarolla mathata a tshedimošo ya go se lekalekane, le go fokotša nyakego ya go lefa mašokotšo. Dipoelo le tšona di tšweleditše go re diperesente tše 54.69 tša dikhamphani tšeo di lego lenaneong la JSE ka fase ga ditirelo tša sekgao sa go phethagatša diphetho tša mašokotšo. Dipoelo di tšwetša pele go utulla go re ditekanyetšo tša ditefelo tša mašokotšo du sepelelana gabotse le ROE le LEV, le go sepelelana gannyane le INST, DIRS le FOREIGN. Dipoelo di netefatša go ba gona ga mathata a Etšensi ao a ngwadilwego lenaneong la dikhamphani tša ditirelo tša mašeleng / Abstracts in English, Zulu, Sepedi / Business Management / M. Com. (Business Management)