Approved for public release; distribution in unlimited. / This thesis discusses risk in Department of Defense (DoD) weapon systems acquisition. It uses the Marine Corps' Advanced Amphibious Assault Vehicle (AAAV) as a case study in risk management strategy and techniques. The AAAV will provide the Marine Corps with a fast deploying, over-the-horizon, waterborne insertion capability. The AAAV's improvements over the currently fielded Amphibious Assault Vehicle (AAV) will provide Marines with a highly survivable and lethal weapon system ashore. Risk is the possibility of damage, inj ury or loss. The severity of a risk is determined by a combination of both the probability of an unfavorable event occurring and the severity of the event's occurrence. Risks are present in virtually all DoD developmental programs. Programs suffer from risks in technical challenges, unstable system requirements, missing schedule milestones, unpredictable funding and cost overruns. The DoD currently uses techniques to mitigate risks inherent in advanced system development. This thesis analyzes the AAAV's Program Definition and Risk Reduction (PDRR) acquisition phase risk management strategy. The thesis concludes by drawing from the lessons learned in the AAAV program during PDRR and analyzing the application of the lessons learned during the AAAV's cu rrent acquisition phase, System Development and Demonstration (SDD) / Captain, United States Marine Corps

Upon consultation with NPS faculty, the School has determined that this thesis may be released to the public, its distribution is unlimited effective August 25, 2011. / One result of the break-up of the Soviet Union is that the DOD has been forced to reevaluate the roles of each of the Armed Services based on the declining resource pool. From the Marine Corps' evaluation of itself came the Combined Arms Regiment (CAR) concept. The objective of this study was to develop an estimate of the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) of the two possible vehicles used with the CAR and the CAR's components. Standard cost factors are used to cost out the various organizations involved. Two supporting analyses done in this study are: an evaluation of the Marine Corps' role in national security and how the CAR could be used to support that security role, and a comparison of the vehicle option operating characteristics which was done to enrich the dimensions under which the CAR could be evaluated. The results of the study are a tool which can help Marine Corps planners make more informed decisions in regards to the CAR concept. The final conclusion, based on the assumption that any CAR would act as a follow-on element of the MAGTF, was that although the CAR(LAV) was a workable option, the CAR using upgraded AAVs was the better, more cost effective option.