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Interdependência e assimetria de retornos e volatilidade dos ADRs da América Latina em relação aos mercados desenvolvidos durante a crise do subprime: um estudo multivariado / Interdependence and asymmetry of returns and volatility of ADRs from Latin America compared to developed markets during the subprime crisis: a multivariate studyAna Carolina Costa Corrêa 02 September 2016 (has links)
A crescente globalização financeira e integração desses mercados resultaram em relações cada vez mais próximas entre os países, sejam eles desenvolvidos ou emergentes. Esses fenômenos, somados às crises financeiras recentes, provocaram maior interesse nos eventos de transmissão de volatilidade e de fluxos de informações entre os mercados financeiros. Dentre elas, destaca-se a crise financeira internacional de 2008, conhecida como \"crise do subprime\", considerada a maior e mais importante desde a Grande Depressão de 1929. Neste contexto, o mercado de recibos americanos de depósito (ADRs) apresentou uma importância crescente nas últimas décadas, especialmente para companhias sediadas em países emergentes, como os da América Latina. Essa região, particularmente, exibiu uma grande expansão neste mercado. De maneira geral, as empresas de países emergentes emissoras de ADRs possuem características mais similares às companhias sediadas nos mercados desenvolvidos, comparadas às demais de seu país de origem. Por isso, como objetivo geral deste estudo, buscou-se detectar e mensurar o fenômeno da interdependência, englobando os transbordamentos (spillovers) de retornos e de volatilidade e suas assimetrias, entre os principais mercados de capitais da América Latina - Brasil, Argentina, Chile e México - e dos países desenvolvidos - Estados Unidos, Japão, Reino Unido e França - no âmbito da última crise financeira internacional. Esse fenômeno foi investigado considerando tanto seus índices acionários de mercado, como os índices de ADRs criados neste estudo, um para cada mercado da América Latina. Estes foram compostos pelas cotações de seus respectivos ADRs níveis 2 ou 3, sendo que a metodologia desenvolvida para sua criação foi uma das contribuições deste trabalho. A partir das séries temporais de retornos diários logarítmicos dos índices dos oito países no período de junho de 2008 a maio de 2015, foi empregada uma metodologia abrangente. Foram aplicadas três abordagens univariadas para modelagem das volatilidades dos mercados (GARCH, EGARCH e TARCH) e dois modelos multivariados assimétricos VAR-MGARCH, com representação Diagonal VECH, para identificação dos transbordamentos de retornos e volatilidade, bem como a análise de suas correlações condicionais. Além disso, foram estimados dois modelos autorregressivos multivariados (VAR) para análise das relações conjuntas dos mercados, e a análise das Funções de Resposta a Impulso (IRF) e dos efeitos sobre a variância por meio de sua decomposição. Os resultados indicaram que as séries de retornos dos mercados de ADRs de empresas latino-americanas não apresentam comportamento mais similar, no tocante à volatilidade, ao dos principais mercados de capitais desenvolvidos. No entanto, há evidências de que os índices de ADRs possuem maior interdependência com os principais mercados de capitais desenvolvidos, por apresentarem relações mais próximas com esses, comparados aos mercados acionários latino-americanos analisados. Essa conclusão corrobora as hipóteses elaboradas sobre esse tema a partir da teoria de segmentação de mercado e das próprias características dessas companhias. Outro resultado relevante foi que os mercados emergentes da América Latina são mais suscetíveis a efeitos locais e regionais que globais, confirmando o benefício do uso dos ativos financeiros desses países para diversificação de carteiras internacionais, mesmo durante uma crise financeira internacional, como a do subprime. / The growing financial globalization and integration of this markets resulted in increasingly close links between the countries, both developed and emerging ones. These phenomena, added to the recent financial crises, provoked greater interest in the events of volatility and information flows transmission between the financial markets. Among them, stands out the international financial crisis of 2008, known as the \"subprime crisis\", considered the largest and most important since the Great Depression of 1929. In this context, the American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) market showed an increasing importance in recent decades, especially for companies based in emerging markets, such as the Latin America. This region, particularly, exhibited a large expansion in this market. In general, companies in emerging countries issuers of ADRs have more similar characteristics to companies based in developed markets, compared to the rest of their country of origin. Therefore, the general objective of this study was to detect and measure the interdependence phenomenon, encompassing returns and volatility spillovers and their asymmetries, among the major capital markets in Latin America - Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Mexico - and developed countries - United States, Japan, UK and France - within the last international financial crisis. This phenomenon was investigated considering both their stock market indices and the ADRs indices created in this study, one for each Latin America country. They were compound of the quotes from their respective ADRs levels 2 or 3, and the methodology developed for their creation was one of the contributions of this assignment. Using the time series of daily logarithmic returns of the eight countries indices in the period from June 2008 to May 2015, it was applied an embracing methodology. It was estimated three univariate approaches to modeling the markets volatility (GARCH, EGARCH and TARCH) and two asymmetric multivariate models VAR-MGARCH, with Diagonal VECH representation, for identification of the returns and volatility spillovers, as well as analysis of their conditional correlations. In addition, two multivariate autoregressive models (VAR) were estimated for analysis of joint relations of markets, and analysis of Impulse Response Functions (IRF) and the effects on the variance through its decomposition. The results indicated that the returns series from Latin American ADR markets doesn\"t have behavior more similar, with regard to volatility, to the major developed capital markets. However, there is evidence that the ADR indices present greater interdependence with the major developed capital markets, because they have closer relationships with these, compared to the Latin American equity markets analyzed. This finding supports the hypothesis elaborated on this subject from the market segmentation theory and the characteristics of these companies. Another important result was that the emerging markets of Latin America are more susceptible to local and regional effects than global ones, confirming the benefit of the use of the financial assets of these countries for diversification of international portfolios, even during an international financial crisis, such as the subprime.
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A Comparison of Current Anuran Monitoring Methods with Emphasis on the Accuracy of Automatic Vocalization Detection SoftwareEldridge, Jacob Douglas 01 December 2011 (has links)
Currently, a variety of methods are available to monitor anurans, and little standardization of methods exists. New methods to monitor anurans have become available over the past twenty years, including PVC pipe arrays used for tree frog capture and Automated Digital Recording Systems (ADRS) used to remotely monitor calling activity. In addition to ADRS, machine-learning computer software, automated vocalization recognition software (AVRS), has been developed to automatically detect vocalizations within digital sound recordings. The use of a combination of ADRS and AVRS shows the promise to reduce the number of people, time, and resources needed for an effective call survey program. However, little research exists that uses the described tools for wildlife monitoring, especially for anuran monitoring.
In the study, there were two problems addressed relating to AVRS. The first was the poorly understood relationship between auditory survey methods and physical survey methods. I tested this problem by using current auditory monitoring methods, ADRS and the AVRS Song Scope© (v.3.1), alongside more traditional physical monitoring methods that included drift fences, a PVC pipe array, and visual encounter transects. No significant relationship between physical and auditory community population measures was found. Auditory methods were also effective in the detection of call characteristic differences between urban and rural locations, further suggesting an influence of noise pollution. The second problem addressed was the call identification errors found in auditory survey methods. I examined the influence of treatments including the ADRS location, listener group, species, and season on the error rates of the AVRS Song Scope© (v.3.1) and groups of human listeners. Computer error rates were higher than human listeners, yet less affected by the treatments. Both studies suggested that AVRS was a viable method to monitor anuran populations, but the choice of methods should be dependent upon the species of interest and the objectives of the study.
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Estudo empírico sobre o comportamento do retorno e da liquidez média das ações no mercado acionário brasileiro das empresas que emitiram ADRs na NYSE e das que aderiram ao novo mercadoNeves, Loren Cristina 23 January 2008 (has links)
The effects in market increase and in average liquidity of the shares, in the two
situations: when some companies adept and adopt the requirements of New Market and
when some companies emission ADRs, and so meet the requirements of Sarbanes-
Oxley are assessed in this research using the methodology Event Study. The events
considerate were the dates of adept New Market and the dates of deposit form 20-F in
SEC, after the time limit of adjustments for meet the law. The test-t of Student assuming
a level of significance the 5% was used for index performance of the abnormal return
and the average liquidity, in the period (-15) to (+15) days around the events dates. The
results highlight that didn t have statistic differences that allow affirm that Brazilian
market increase more value to the companies that issues ADRs in NYSE. And the
statistics differences in behavior of the average liquidity of the shares in these
companies didn t have. However, they noted statistics differences in the behavior of the
average liquidity of the preference shares on the ordinary shares in the companies that
issues ADRs in NYSE. / Os efeitos no retorno e na liquidez média das ações, diante das duas situações: quando
empresas aderem e atendem aos requisitos do Novo Mercado e quando empresas
emitem ADRs e, por conseguinte, atendem aos requisitos da Sarbanes-Oxley são
avaliados neste trabalho por meio do método de Estudo de Eventos. Os eventos
considerados foram as datas de adesão ao Novo Mercado e as datas de depósito do
formulário 20-F na SEC, após o prazo limite de adequação das empresas estrangeira à
Lei. O teste-t de Student, em um nível de significância de 5%, foi utilizado para os
índices de desempenho dos retornos anormais e da liquidez média, no período de (-15) a
(+15) dias ao redor das datas dos eventos. Os resultados evidenciam que não existem
diferenças estatísticas que permitam afirmar que há valorização do retorno das empresas
que emitem ADRs na NYSE, em relação às empresas que estão listadas no Novo
Mercado. Também não foram identificadas diferenças estatísticas no comportamento da
liquidez média das ações dessas empresas. No entanto são apontadas diferenças
estatísticas no comportamento da liquidez das ações preferenciais em relação às ações
ordinárias das empresas que emitem ADRs na NYSE. / Mestre em Administração
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Securities trading in multiple markets : the Chinese perspectiveWang, Chaoyan January 2009 (has links)
This thesis studies the trading of the Chinese American Depositories Receipts (ADRs) and their respective underlying H shares issued in Hong Kong. The primary intention of this work is to investigate the arbitrage opportunity between the Chinese ADRs and their underlying H shares. This intention is motivated by the market observation that hedge funds are often in the top 10 shareholders of these Chinese ADRs. We start our study from the origin place of the Chinese ADRs, China’s stock market. We pay particular attention to the ownership structure of the Chinese listed firms, because part of the Chinese ADRs also listed A shares (exclusively owned by the Chinese citizens) in Shanghai. We also pay attention to the market microstructures and trading costs of the three China-related stock exchanges. We then proceed to empirical study on the Chinese ADRs arbitrage possibility by comparing the return distribution of two securities; we find these two securities are different in their return distributions, and which is due to the inequality in the higher moments, such as skewness, and kurtosis. Based on the law of one price and the weak-form efficient markets, the prices of identical securities that are traded in different markets should be similar, as any deviation in their prices will be arbitraged away. Given the intrinsic property of the ADRs that a convenient transferable mechanism exists between the ADRs and their underlying shares which makes arbitrage easy; the different return distributions of the ADRs and the underlying shares address the question that if arbitrage is costly that the equilibrium price of the security achieved in each market is affected mainly by its local market where the Chinese ADRs/the underlying Hong Kong shares are traded, such as the demand for and the supply of the stock in each market, the different market microstructures and market mechanisms which produce different trading costs in each market, and different noise trading arose from asymmetric information across multi-markets. And because of these trading costs, noise trading risk, and liquidity risk, the arbitrage opportunity between the two markets would not be exploited promptly. This concern then leads to the second intention of this work that how noise trading and trading cost comes into playing the role of determining asset prices, which makes us to empirically investigate the comovement effect, as well as liquidity risk. With regards to these issues, we progress into two strands, firstly, we test the relationship between the price differentials of the Chinese ADRs and the market return of the US and Hong Kong market. This test is to examine the comovement effect which is caused by asynchronous noise trading. We find the US market impact dominant over Hong Kong market impact, though both markets display significant impact on the ADRs’ price differentials. Secondly, we analyze the liquidity effect on the Chinese ADRs and their underlying Hong Kong shares by using two proxies to measure illiquidity cost and liquidity risk. We find significant positive relation between return and trading volume which is used to capture liquidity risk. This finding leads to a deeper study on the relationship between trading volume and return volatility from market microstructure perspective. In order to verify a proper model to describe return volatility, we carry out test to examine the heteroscedasticity condition, and proceed to use two asymmetric GARCH models to capture leverage effect. We find the Chinese ADRs and their underlying Hong Kong shares have different patterns in the leverage effect as modeled by these two asymmetric GARCH models, and this finding from another angle explains why these two securities are unequal in the higher moments of their return distribution. We then test two opposite hypotheses about volume-volatility relation. The Mixture of Distributions Hypothesis suggests a positive relation between contemporaneous volume and volatility, while the Sequential Information Arrival Hypothesis indicates a causality relationship between lead-lag volume and volatility. We find supportive evidence for the Sequential Information Arrival Hypothesis but not for the Mixture of Distributions Hypothesis.
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