Submitted by Setor de Tratamento da Informa??o - BC/PUCRS (tede2@pucrs.br) on 2015-10-02T11:36:40Z No. of bitstreams: 1 475454 - Texto Completo.pdf: 2586770 bytes, checksum: e04b0ca28f623230c98ff396cb2451d2 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-10-02T11:36:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 475454 - Texto Completo.pdf: 2586770 bytes, checksum: e04b0ca28f623230c98ff396cb2451d2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-08-11 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior - CAPES / The climate change in future scenarios would result changes in the geographical distribution, ecology and behavior of species. In the case of bees, such changes may have more drastic impacts, because these insects are important pollinators in natural and agricultural environments. Based on this, this study analyzed the effect of climate change on the geographic distribution of seven species of Plebeia of ecological and economic importance in the subtropical zone of South America in the current and future scenarios. For that it were identified climate variables that will most likely affect their distribution. The studied species were P. molesta, P. droryana, P. emerina, P. nigriceps, P. saiqui, P. remota and P. wittmanni. The species distribution was modeled using the variables temperature, rainfall and altitude. To describe future climate it were used bioclimatic variables for the year 2070 under the RCP4.5 scenario from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The analysis of data revealed that P. nigriceps and P. saiqui might have the largest reduction in area in the future (> 60%). On the other hand, P. emerina might have a moderate increase in the occurrence area (2.5%), whereas P. wittmanni, a significant increase (55%). Most of the studied species is strongly associated with the Atlantic Forest biome, and P. droryana and P. remota may be even more restricted to this biome. The estimated temperature change for the future scenario could affect the diapause species of Plebeia and the expected increase in rainfall may negatively influence the flight activity. If the changes in the habitat of the species are confirmed, the pollination service of native plants and crops may be affected. / Os cen?rios futuros com mudan?as clim?ticas podem levar a altera??es na distribui??o geogr?fica, ecologia e comportamento das esp?cies. No caso espec?fico das abelhas, as altera??es poder?o ter consequ?ncias mais dr?sticas, pois esses insetos s?o importantes polinizadores em ambientes naturais e agr?colas. Baseado nisso, este trabalho analisou o efeito das altera??es clim?ticas na distribui??o geogr?fica de sete esp?cies de Plebeia de import?ncia ecol?gica e econ?mica na zona subtropical da Am?rica do Sul nos cen?rios atual e futuro. Para isso foram identificadas as vari?veis clim?ticas que mais provavelmente podem afetar a sua distribui??o. As esp?cies estudadas foram P. molesta, P. droryana, P. emerina, P. nigriceps, P. saiqui, P. remota e P. wittmanni. A distribui??o das esp?cies foi modelada utilizando as vari?veis de temperatura, precipita??o e altitude. Para descrever o clima futuro foram utilizadas as vari?veis bioclim?ticas para o ano de 2070, sob o cen?rio RCP4.5 definido pelo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A an?lise dos dados revelou que P. nigriceps e P. saiqui poder?o ter as maiores redu??es de ?rea no futuro (>60%). Por outro lado, P. emerina poder? ter um aumento moderado na ?rea de ocorr?ncia (2,5%), enquanto que para P. wittmanni, estima-se um aumento expressivo (55%). A maioria das esp?cies estudadas tem grande rela??o com o bioma da Mata Atl?ntica, sendo que P. droryana e P. remota poder?o ficar ainda mais restritas a esse bioma. A estimativa de mudan?a da temperatura para o cen?rio futuro poder? afetar a diapausa reprodutiva das esp?cies de Plebeia e o aumento estimado da precipita??o poder? influenciar negativamente a atividade de voo. Caso as altera??es no habitat das esp?cies se confirmem, o servi?o de poliniza??o de plantas nativas e culturas agr?colas poder? ser afetado.