This thesis investigates how different policies and measures designed to reduce CO2 emissions – i.e. carbon tax and energy efficiency policies – in South Africa will affect South African households. The contribution of this study lies with evaluating South African households at a disaggregated income level from low to high-income appreciating the fact that households at different levels are impacted differently by the implementation of policies at national level. In order to evaluate such impacts, the study started with profiling the households’ electricity consumption patterns in South Africa through the years and comparing them with the rest of the world. The next objective was to comprehend – implementing an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) econometric model – the determinants of electricity consumption of the residential sector in the country. Finally, by using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE), the study examined various policy scenarios designed to reduce emissions and its effects on different households, particularly the low-income ones that do not have the capital to absorb the impacts. The results showed that low-income households are affected differently than the rest of South African households by the national policies implemented to reduce CO2 emissions and combat climate change. However, given the way the carbon tax and energy efficiency policies are designed, low-income households should be affected minimally. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2020. / National Research Foundation (NRF) / Economics / PhD (Economics) / Unrestricted

Tourism is one of the fastest growing industries in the world, employing approximately 220 million people and generating over 9.4% of the world's GDP. The growing contribution of tourism is accompanied by an increased interest in understanding the major factors which influence visitation levels to those countries. Therefore, finding the right variables to understand and estimate tourism demand becomes very important and challenging in policy formulations. The purpose of this study is to introduce Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) to the field of tourism demand studies. Using ESI in demand analysis, this study will assist in the ability to tap into individuals' hopes and/or worries for the present and future. The study developed a demand model in which the number of tourist arrivals to Turkey from select EU countries is used as the dependent variable. ESI along with more traditional variables such as Interest Rate, Relative Price, and Relative Exchange Rate were brought into the model as the independent demand determinants. The study utilized such econometric models as ARIMA for seasonality adjustment and ARDL Bound test approach to cointegration for the long and short-run elasticities. ESI was statistically significant in 8 countries out of 13, three of those countries had a negative coefficient and five had a positive sign as proposed by the study. The study posits that ESI is a good indicator to gauge and monitor tourism demand and adding the visitors' state of mind into the demand equation could reduce errors and increase variance in arrivals. Policy makers should monitor ESI as it fluctuates over time. Since we do not have direct influence on travelers' demand for tourism, it is imperative that we use indirect approaches such as price adjustment and creating new packages or promotional expenditures in order to influence or induce demand. Using this information generated from the study, government officials and tourism suppliers could adjust their promotional activities and expenditures in origin countries accordingly. / Master of Science

Thesis (Ph.D. Commerce (Economics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2021 / This study focused on examining the contributions of inclusive growth and innovation towards economic development in South Africa. Empirically literature showed that there must be equitable opportunities for all economic participants regardless of economic class, gender, sex, disability, and religion. Thus, inclusive growth has been seen to be a weapon to curb poverty and inequality on a long-term perspective and the focus is on productive employment rather than merely direct income redistribution as a means of increasing income for excluded groups. This expands from traditional economic growth models such as the equity of health, human capital, environmental quality, social protection and food security in the country. Thus, inclusive growth goes hand in hand with innovation and economic development at large. This study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) approach on the annual time series data ranging from 1990 to 2018 obtained from the South African Reserve Bank and the World Bank. The results revealed that general government expenditure on education, gross fixed capital formation, and information and communication technology have a positive relationship with economic development in the long-run. On the contrary, trade openness and research and development have a negative impact on economic development in the long-run. In the short-run, government expenditure on education, gross fixed capital formation, and information and communication technology has a negative impact on economic development. In that case, trade openness and investment in research and development have a positive impact on economic development. The error correction term was found to be negative and significant which is an indication that the system will revert to equilibrium even though economic development will have a slow rate of speed of adjustment of about 0.04%. Lastly, the existence of unidirectional causality among the series was noticed. Therefore, this study advocate for bridging the gap between income inequality, improving education policies, managing social mobility in the long-run to balance inclusive growth / South African Zakat Fund (SANZAF)

This paper explores the link between agriculture investment and agriculture output in Namibia. The existing theory on investment and growth constitutes a basis for empirical work on investment-output nexus. Neither the neoclassical nor the new growth theories on investment have considered the growth effects of investment at sector and industry level and its implication on capital allocation, particularly for developing countries that are resource constrained. The key question addressed in this paper is whether investment in agriculture is associated with agriculture output, both at the sector and sub-sector levels. The paper adopted the ARDL bounds test model constructed with quarterly data for the period 2000 to 2020 and found that investment and agricultural output exhibit a long-run relationship. The coefficient estimates showed that public investment, development bank loans and agriculture export have a positive impact on agricultural output while inflation, lending rates and commercial bank loans have a deleterious effect. The long-run causality tests suggest that there is unidirectional causality between commercial credit expenditure and aggregate agriculture output, as well as a unidirectional causality running from exports to livestock and crop sub-sector output. Based on error correction terms, agriculture output tends to rapidly adjust to short-term disturbances, hence rebound of agriculture output to a long-run growth path can take place with minimum or no delays. This study concludes that the Keynesian hypothesis is valid for Namibia's agriculture and the direction of causality is from investment to agriculture growth. Therefore, the role of government in supporting sustainable development of the agricultural sector cannot be overemphasised.

Quantitative Easing is an unconventional instrument when conducting monetary policy with the aim of stimulating the economy. The instrument is a complementary tool when changing the nominal interest rate is no longer effective. In the United States this unconventional instrument has been used through three different waves between December 2008 to October 2014. This research paper investigates two different regressions, one for the dependent variable consumption and one for the dependent variable investments to capture the effects on households and firms respectively. The results are used to study whether the unconventional monetary policy has had any effects on these variables and if the dependent variables are affected to different degrees. Data for this paper is collected between the first quarter of 2005 until the fourth quarter of 2019. The modelling used is the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) for the two different regressions. All variables in the regressions are critically tested for unit roots, autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and misspecification to validate the analysis. The findings of our ARDL models indicate that investments are affected by quantitative easing to a larger degree than consumption by 3.8 times the change of the coefficients at its optimal lags.

This thesis aims to investigate the impact of state fragility on capital inflows and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1980-2015. In line with existing studies, it adopts an augmented neoclassical growth model where capital is divided into domestic and foreign capital inflows (FDI, ODA and Remittances). Using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to co-integration, significant long-run relationship was confirmed between state fragility, capital flows and economic growth. The results reveal domestic capital to be very significant and contribute positively to economic growth. Similarly it was observed that remittances remain a very crucial form of capital flow to Nigeria and that the presence of state fragility makes it more significant. For ODA a positive contribution to economic growth was observed, however, the presence of state fragility renders it insignificant. In the case of FDI, the study found a negative relationship between FDI and economic growth albeit insignificant. However, the presence of state fragility makes it significant but still negative. A negative relationship was also observed between state fragility and economic growth. These findings, implies that while the issue of state fragility needs to be addressed and concerted efforts put into building state resilience, not just for the direct impact of state fragility on the economy, but also its impact on the economy through other channels such as capital flows.

This study examines the relationship between banks, stock market and economic development in Botswana using quarterly data from 1995 to 2016. To find out if there is a link between financial development and economic growth, the three measures of stock market development used are stock market capitalization, total value of shares traded and turnover. For bank-based financial development, the proxy is bank credit to private sector and the measure of economic growth is real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. To analyse the long run and short run relationships among the variables of interest, this study implements the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique and the Granger causality technique to find the direction of causality. The findings indicate that there is a positive short and long run relationship between stock market variables and economic growth when turnover and market capitalization are used as proxies and value traded is significant and negatively related to economic growth. The study found that bank credit to private sector is negatively related to economic growth both in the short and the long run. There is bidirectional causality between stock market financial development and economic growth and no causal relationship between banking financial development and economic growth in Botswana. This study recommends that there should be appropriate reforms to develop the financial sector in Botswana to help promote economic growth. Botswana should also have reforms to promote economic growth to foster stock market financial development. This study also offers a comprehensive and detailed overview of the state of the economy, banking system and the financial markets system of Botswana which can help foreign investors as well as individual and institutional investors in making sound investment decisions.

2015年下半年開始，許多有關市場黑天鵝的新聞佈滿各大媒體版面，其中不乏「某恐慌指標創歷史新高」此類令投資人恐懼的標題。然事實上卻未見到各國股價指數有大幅修正的現象，以MSCI全球指數而言，下半年總計僅修正6.49%。為了探討這些不同於傳統VIX指數的恐慌指標是否會顯著影響股價指數的表現。本論文透過VAR、VECM以及ARDL模型，探討金價油價比、CBOE偏態指數、瑞士信貸CSFB指數以及泰德價差這四種恐慌指標對於當前全球前四大經濟體股價指數的關聯性。 美國是全世界經濟的領頭羊，其經濟情勢與全球每一個國家的榮景息息相關，美國股價指數的表現亦是相當受到全球投資人所關注的。故本論文首先透過探討這四種恐慌指標對於S&P 500指數的影響，再利用S&P 500指數領先各國股價指數的特性進一步得出結論。實證結果發現，S&P 500指數對於其他三個股價指數確實具有短期同向的影響，長期而言亦具有穩定的線性關係。另外，金價油價比無論在短期及長期下皆無法有效代理市場的恐慌程度而影響S&P 500指數；CBOE偏態指數與瑞士信貸CSFB指數在長期下得以領先S&P 500指數的變化，當該二指數走高，代表 S&P 500指數在近期的波段高點可能即將來臨，亦即隱含該二指數對於S&P 500指數具有領先同向變化的現象；泰德價差為市場用以衡量信用風險的指標之一，當泰德價差擴大，隱含市場風險貼水增加，不利股市發展，其與S&P 500指數則具有長期穩定的負向關係。本論文最後也針對這四種恐慌指標的預測能力進行探討，發現瑞士信貸CSFB指數在預測S&P 500指數的能力上，相對其他三種恐慌指標優異。 / There were so many hearsays about the potential black swan events dominating the news in the second half of 2015. Headlines were about some fear indicators hit historic high but, in realistic, world stock market did not be significantly influenced under this panic atmosphere. Take MSCI World Index for instance, the index dropped only 6.49% in the second half of 2015, which was relatively unreasonable under this condition. In order to find out whether or not the fluctuations of these fear indicators can significantly affect stock indexes, VAR, VAEM and ARDL model to discuss the relationships between 4 fear indicators and 4 stock indexes─gold to oil ratio, CBOE Skew Index, Credit Suisse Fear Barometer Index, TED spread, S&P 500 Index, MSCI Europe Index, SSE A Share Index and Nikkei 225 Index are adopted in this study. Global investors pay close attention to the performance of the U.S. Stock indexes as U.S. economy condition can affect the economies of the rest of the world. Consequently, we investigated the effects of 4 fear indicators to the S&P 500 Index then employed relationships between S&P 500 Index and other 3 stock indexes to do further discussion. The results show S&P 500 positively affects the performances of other 3 stock indexes in short term and has a steady relationship with each of them respectively in the long term. The changes of gold to oil ratio could not significantly influence the performance of S&P 500 Index no matter in the short term or the long term. CBOE Skew Index and CSFB Index have significant positive influences on S&P 500 and are leading indicators to S&P 500 Index. Lastly, TED spread has a steady negative relationship with S&P 500 in long term, and CSFB Index has the highest predictive power among the 4 fear indicators.

Sammanfattning Examensarbete i finansiering, Civilekonomprogrammet Ekonomihögskolan vid Linnéuniversitetet, VT-2017 Författare: Emma Magnusson & Jonathan Hillgren Handledare: Håkan Locking Examinator: Andreas Stephan Titel: For better or for worse – A study on the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade   Bakgrund: Växelkurssvängningar har studerats av flertalet forskare då detta anses vara en osäkerhet vars effekt inte är säkerställd. Då internationell handel är en viktig faktor för tillväxt och välstånd i en nation är dess samband med volatiliteten betydelsefullt att fastställa för att identifiera huruvida inverkan på landet är positiv eller negativ.   Problemformulering: Har volatiliteten i eurons växelkurs mot rörliga valutor någon påverkan på den bilaterala handeln mellan eurozonen och andra europeiska länder?   Syfte: Att kunna urskilja effekten av växelkursvolatilitetens påverkan på export och import vilket kan gynna företag i dess handelsbeslut, strategier och framtidprognostisering.    Metod: Undersökningens tillvägagångssätt grundar sig i en tidsserieanalys där beräkningar för volatiliteten ligger som grund till förklaringsvariabeln i modellen för att studera dess effekt på handeln, vilket skattas genom en noga utvald ARDL-metod. Regressionerna ger både ett lång- och kortsiktigt samband för att visa skillnader i influenser från volatiliteten på export och import för Sverige och Norge som studeras i rapporten.   Slutsatser: De erhållna resultaten för både Sveriges och Norges export visar att ingen påverkan alls kan urskiljas från växelkurssvängningar vilket innebär att exporten fortskrider oavsett grad av volatilitet vilket kan förklaras genom dess förmodade likheter i handelsmönster, varukategorier och exponering mot euroländerna. En möjlig slutsats är även att det inte är volatiliteten i sig som påverkar handeln, utan underliggande faktorer som inte kontrollerats för, vilket åskådliggjordes när oljeprisindex inkluderandes och eliminerade volatilitetens effekt på Norges export. Importen visade en långsiktig negativ effekt av volatiliteten för Norge och en kortsiktig positiv påverkan för Sverige. Skillnader i importen antas bero på olikheter i valutasäkring, trögheter i ekonomin och relationen till EU. / Abstract   Master Thesis in finance, Business and Administration School of Business and Economics at Linnaeus University, VT-2017 Authors: Emma Magnusson & Jonathan Hillgren Advisor: Håkan Locking Examiner: Andreas Stephan Title: For better or for worse – A study on the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade   Background: Exchange rate fluctuations have been studied by numerous researchers, since it is thought of as an uncertainty whose effect is not guaranteed. Because international trade is an important factor to growth and wealth for a country, its connection to volatility is important to establish in order to identify whether the influence on the nation is positive or negative.   Problem: Does the volatility in the exchange rate between the euro and floating currencies affect bilateral trade between the euro area and other European countries?   Purpose: The purpose of the study is to distinguish the effect of the exchange rate volatility on export and import, which can favor companies in their trade decisions and strategies.   Method: The approach of the study is built on a time series analysis where estimates of volatility are underlying the explanatory variable to find its effect on trade, which is calculated by a carefully selected ARDL method. The regressions obtain both long-term and short-term relationships to show differences in the effect from the volatility on export and import for Sweden and Norway, the studied countries in this report.   Conclusions: The results for the export of both Sweden and Norway do not show any impact from the exchange rate fluctuations, which means the export continues regardless of the level of volatility. This can be explained by their similarities in the pattern of trade, products and exposure to the euro countries. Another possible conclusion is that the volatility itself is not affecting trade but that the underlying factors not being controlled for are, which was shown when the oil price index was included and eliminated the effect of the volatility on Norwegian exports. The import exposed a long-term negative effect of the volatility for Norway and a short-term positive effect for Sweden. The disparities are assumed to be due to differences in the use of hedging, inertia in the economy and the relationship with the European Union.

L’objet de cette thèse est d’étudier dans un contexte de financiarisation des marchés de matières premières, certaines stratégies adoptées par les investisseurs et leurs impacts sur la volatilité et le co-mouvement excessif entre les marchés énergétiques et financiers. Pour ce faire, trois études sont proposées. La première fait appel aux modèles à changement de régime (MS-VAR) appliqués sur un ensemble des produits énergétiques et couvre la période 1992-2017. Les résultats obtenus suggèrent qu’en période de forte volatilité, les agents commerciaux (agents de couverture) jouent un rôle crucial dans la découverte des prix du marché du gaz. Cependant, ces agents de couverture affectent le bon fonctionnement des autres marchés (pétrole, essence, fioul) et amplifient leur volatilité. La deuxième étude traite les modèles GARCH ADCC versus GARCH DCC sur un échantillon de 17 pays et sur la période 1997-2016. Cette étude met en avant l’effet asymétrique des chocs pétroliers sur les corrélations conditionnelles des marchés asiatiques et africains, qui s’expliquent notamment par les activités d’arbitrage et les comportements hétérogènes des investisseurs. La troisième étude porte sur les modèles autorégressifs à retards échelonnés (ARDL) et révèle qu’après la crise financière, et au-delà des fondamentaux macro-économiques et financiers, l’indice de la spéculation excessive explique, aussi bien à long terme qu’à court terme, la corrélation entre le marché pétrolier et les marchés financiers de certains pays. Ceci génère un phénomène de co-mouvement excessif, et donc un effet de financiarisation sur ces marchés. Enfin, nous concluons les éléments suivantes : premièrement, en période de forte volatilité, le marché du gaz constitue une valeur refuge pour les investisseurs financiers ; deuxièmement, le comportement de l’investisseur explique l’effet de co-mouvement excessif entre le marché pétrolier et certains marchés financiers ; troisièmement, ce phénomène de co-mouvement excessif limite les avantages de la diversification internationale des portefeuilles notamment au moment des turbulences financières. / The object of this thesis is to study in a context of financialization of commodity markets, some strategies adopted by investors and their impact on volatility and excess co-movement between energy markets and financial markets. To this end, three studies are proposed. The first study uses the approach VAR with Switching Regime (MS-VAR) applied to energy markets during the period 1992-2017. The results suggest that during high volatility period, commercial agents (hedging agents) play a crucial role in the discovery of gas market prices. However, these agents affect the efficiency of other markets (crude oil, gasoline, heating oil) and amplify their volatilities. The second study employs GARCH ADCC versus GARCH DCC models for a sample of 17 countries and covering the period 1997-2016. This study highlights the asymmetric effect of oil shocks on the conditional correlations of the Asian and African markets, which can be explained in particular by the arbitrage activities and the heterogeneous behavior of investors. The third study focuses on Autoregressive Distributed Lag models (ARDL) and reveals that after the financial crisis, and beyond the macroeconomic and financial fundamentals, the index of excessive speculation, explains in long term as well as in short term, the correlation between oil market and some financial markets. This generates a phenomenon of excess co-movement, and therefore a financializing effect on these markets. Finally, we can conclude that : firstly, during high volatility period, gas market is a safe haven for financial investors ; secondly, the behavior of the investor explains the effect of excess co-movement between the oil market and some financial markets ; thirdly, this phenomenon of excess co-movement limits the benefits of international portfolio diversification especially during financial turbulences.