自1970年代以來有許多研究指出，能源價格衝擊對於一個國家的總體經濟表現有顯著的影響。但對於能源價格究竟是以何種形式，以及透過什麼管道對總體經濟產生影響，卻沒有一致的看法。同時，經濟決策者對於能源價格變動的反應，經常因為有不確定性的存在而有延後反映的現象。本文利用台灣1981年到2009年的能源價格，建構數種對稱與不對稱之能源價格變動設定，以Granger因果關係檢定探討能源價格變動與台灣其他相關的總體經濟變數資料間的關係；並透過自我迴歸分配落後模型 (Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model, ARDL) 模型估計能源價格與台灣產出的長期關係。我們的實證結果顯示：能源價格，相較於台灣的總體經濟體系，具有外生性。能源價格成長率對產出與失業率沒有顯著的影響；但能源價格的波動程度對台灣產出成長率卻有顯著的負面影響。能源價格波動率與台灣實質產出具有長期均衡關係，而且能源價格波動將對台灣實質產出有負面影響。 / Since the 1970s, numerous studies have demonstrated that energy price impact can have a significant influence on a country’s macroeconomy. However, there is no consensus regarding in what form, or by which channel can energy price changes affect the macroeconomy. In addition, economic decision makers often respond to energy price changes with a time lag due to the existence of uncertainty. This paper constructs several indicators of symmetric and asymmetric energy price changes based on the energy prices in Taiwan for the period from 1981 to 2009. We employ the Granger’s causality test to examine the relationship between energy price changes and related macroeconomic variables; and utilize the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) to estimate the long-run relationship between energy price volatility and Taiwan’s real GDP. Our empirical results show that energy price exhibits exogeneity relative to important macroeconomic variables; the energy price growth rate does not have significant impact on output and unemployment rate, while the energy price volatility has negative impact on Taiwan’s macroeconomy. There is long-run relationship between the energy price volatility and Taiwan’s real GDP. Furthermore, the energy price volatility do have negative impact on Taiwan’s real GDP.

Denna studie syftar till att undersöka om växelkursen har en påverkan på svensk varuexport och om effekten skiljer sig med avseende på varugrupp. För att uppnå syftet används en ARDL-Approach som skattas med hjälp av tidsseriedata från 32 viktiga handelspartners och 10 viktiga varugrupper under perioden januari 1995 till december 2019. Två effekter är i fokus: effekten av en real appreciering/depreciering och effekten av en volatil växelkurs. För den totala varuexporten visas signifikanta resultat för att en depreciering av den svenska kronan med 1 % i genomsnitt ökar varuexporten med 0,192 % på kort sikt och med 0,416 % på lång sikt. Effekten av en volatilitetsökning på 1 % skattas till -0,366 % på kort sikt och till -0,794 % på lång sikt, dock utan statistisk signifikans. På varugruppsnivå tyder resultaten på att olika varor påverkas olika av förändringar i växelkursen. / The aim of this study is to examine whether the exchange rate has an impact on Swedish export of goods and if this effect differs between different categories of goods. To reach the aim, we use an ARDL-Approach with time-series data from 32 important trade partners and 10 different categories of goods during the period January 1995 to December 2019. Two effects are in focus: The effect of real appreciation/depreciation and the effect of exchange rate volatility. In total export of goods, this study finds significant results that a 1 % depreciation of the Swedish crown on average increases exports of goods with 0,192 % in the short-term and with 0,416 % in the long-term. The effect of an increase in exchange rate volatility by 1 % is estimated to decrease the exports of goods with -0,366 % in the short run and -0,794 % in the long run, but without statistical significance. The results imply that different categories of goods are being affected differently by changes in the exchange rate.

Quantitative easing (QE) is an unconventional monetary policy tool used by central banks to stimulate the economy in times when conventional monetary policy is not sufficient. In the wake of covid-19, central banks around the world has announced significant increases in their QE-programs. This research paper aims to find out whether quantitative easing has any statistically significant effect on the stock prices of the Swedish real estate market. Moreover, it aims to produce an indication of the direction of the real estate stock prices over the year of 2020. To those ends, a combination of statistical analysis and economic theory is used. We estimate three Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models. For a chosen model, an out-of-sample prediction is carried out as a way to model future stock price movements. We conclude that quantitative easing indeed has a statistically significant effect on real estate stock prices in Sweden. Furthermore, we estimate that stock prices in the real estate sector will see negative movements during the second and third quarter of 2020, followed by a return to positives during the fourth quarter. / Kvantitativa lättnader (QE) är ett redskap inom okonventionell penningpolitik som används av centralbanker för att stimulera ekonomin när konventionella metoder inte är tillräckliga. I kölvattnet av covid-19 så har centralbanker runt om i världen meddelat kraftiga ökningar i deras program för kvantitativa lättnader. Den här uppsatsen syftar till att ta reda på om kvantitativa lättnader har någon statistiskt signifikant påverkan på priserna för fastighetsaktier som handlas på öppen marknad i Sverige. Därutöver syftar den till att ge en anvisning kring i vilken riktning priserna på dessa aktier kommer röra sig under 2020. För dessa ändamål används en kombination av statistisk analys och ekonomisk teori. Vi estimerar tre Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeller. För en av modellerna görs en out-of-sample prediktion för att modellera framtida prisrörelser på aktiemarknaden. Utifrån våra modeller och analys kan vi konstatera att kvantitativa lättnader har en effekt på priserna för fastighetsaktier. Vidare så estimerar vi att priserna på fastighetsaktier kommer röra sig i en negativ riktning under andra och tredje kvartalet 2020, för att sedan svänga tillbaka till positiva rörelser under fjärde kvartalet.

1992年鄧小平「南巡」之後，上海房地產業頓時成為全世界投資者所矚目的焦點。伴隨著上海經濟的急速成長、房地產市場的豐厚利潤、以及對人民幣升值的強烈預期，境外資金不斷湧入上海市進行房地產投資。節節高升的房價最終造成中國政府的注意，限制外資進入房地產市場成為大陸宏觀調控的重點。然而外資是否為房價高漲的主因，至今為止依然是爭論不休。到底外資是大陸房地產價格居高不下的罪魁禍首，還是宏觀調控政策下的代罪羔羊，為了清楚了解FDI對大陸房地產價格到底造成何種影響，本文主要研究目的主要有以下兩點：一為探討FDI金額的變動對上海房地產價格波動是否造成影響，二為研究影響上海房價波動的總體經濟因素為何。 根據實證結果顯示，就長期關係而言，外商直接投資、物價、利率、匯率、收入，皆與房價呈現正向關係，股價則與房價呈現反向關係。就短期關係而言，影響房價的因素有外商直接投資、利率、收入、以及房價本身，以上皆與房價呈現正向關係；整體而言短期物價對房價沒有顯著影響，但就個別月份而言，落後兩期的物價指數與房價指數呈現反向關係；短期匯率波動對房價的影響相互抵銷，加總後的影響效果為零，而短期股價則對房價沒有顯著影響，宏觀調控脈絡下的「限外令」並沒能使房市降溫。總的來說，外商直接投資雖對房價有正向影響，但影響最劇的因素卻是匯率與利率，因此外商直接投資並非上海房價飆漲的罪魁禍首，亦不是宏觀調控政策下的代罪羔羊。大陸政府拿外資開刀，其目的不外乎是為了「殺雞儆猴」，借此達到抑制房價的目的。 / The real estate has become a burgeoning industry in Shanghai since the Mainland deceased leader Deng Xiao-ping made his remarkable inspection tour of the South in 1992. Due to the fast growing market and desirable profit, uncountable foreign capital has flowed into the real estate industry of Shanghai. Housing prices have soared and already drew the attention of the authorities, which causes the restraint on real estate investment. Does foreign capital matter to real estate prices? What economic factors cause the movement of real estate prices? The purposes of this paper are to investigate the relationship between foreign direct investment and real estate prices of Shanghai. The empirical result shows: FDI, CPI, interest rate, exchange rate and income have significant positive effects on real estate prices in the long run. Nevertheless, stock market has significant negative effect. In the short run, however, FDI, interest rate, income and housing price itself have significant positive effects on real estate prices. In addition, overall CPI has no effect on real estate prices while some individual months of CPI have negative effect; exchange rate and stock market also have no effect on real estate prices in general. Furthermore, the policy of restraining foreign capital on real estate investment does not induce declining housing prices. To sum up, exchange rate is the main reason that affects real estate prices of Shanghai. FDI is not the “chief criminal” nor a scapegoat, neither. Penalizing the foreign capital is simply a warning from the Mainland government to seize the “hot money” in the real estate market.

1978年中國大陸改革開放，吹皺經濟市場一池春水。住房公有制、住房福利制觀念相繼被打破，揭開房產制度改革曙光。鄧小平在1992年南巡講話後，定調「有中國特色社會主義市場經濟」的基本路線，從根本上解決市場經濟意識形態問題，自此中國大陸房地產市場活水澈底被激發。近十餘年來，中國大陸全國商品房平均價格從2000年2,112元人民幣，攀升至2010年5,032元人民幣，部分重點城市如北京、上海、廣州..等更早已突破萬元人民幣大關。 房產市場不對稱發展加深中國大陸社會結構性矛盾與衝突對立，高房價顯然無益其國內經濟健全發展，這也讓大陸中央不得不正視此一嚴肅問題積極採取宏觀調控手段，企圖壓制漲勢不斷的房價期能消彌廣大民怨。而與之同時因為覬覦中國大陸經濟高速發展背後廣大利益而競相投入中國市場的外資也就格外引起大陸政府的關注，因為「外資炒房」的傳言與疑慮一直困擾著中共當局，在高房價、高民怨的氛圍壟罩下，產官學界檢討外資聲浪甚囂塵上；然而，高房價的背後是否一定有外資刻意炒作？值得探究與思考。 本研究嘗試以中國大陸天津做為觀察標的，運用共整合ARDL模型探討外商直接投資（FDI）對房地產價格波動的影響，釐清外資在房地產價格所扮演的角色。實證模型並納入物價指數（CPI）、人均收入（INC）、貸款利率（INT）、匯率（EXC）與股價（STOCK）為解釋變數，以做為觀察總體經濟因素對大陸房地產市場的影響。實證結果表明，在短期關係上外資的確有拉抬房價效果，不過長期關係影響並不顯著，顯示外資不是實際推升房地產價格的主因，角色定位應為「從犯」而非「主嫌」。研究結果並發現，匯率變動對房地產價格有著顯著實質影響，這意味如果大陸政府要運用匯率這項工具來抑制漲勢不斷的房價，就必須讓人民幣適時升值。不過目前中國大陸仍屬以出口導向為大宗的國家，長期而言，人民幣升值將對其出口造成某種程度衝擊，是以在匯率政策的操作上恐陷入兩難（升值或貶值)的困境。 / The reform and opening in mainland China in 1978 had fretted the surface of the water of the economic market. The concepts of public housing and housing welfare system had been broken, leading to a line of hope in the reform of the house property system. After Xiaoping Deng's speech during his south tour, he set up the basic route of the "socialism market economy with Chinese features", resolving the market economy ideology issue from the root. Since then, the house property market in Chine has been activated. In the recent decade, the average price of commercial residential buildings had increased from YMB$2,112 in 2000 to YMB$5,032 in 2010. In major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, the prices had already went over YMB$10,000. The asymmetric development of the house property market has further caused structural conflicts and confrontations in Mainland China. Apparently, high housing prices were not beneficial to the sound development of the domestic economy. And thus the central government in Mainland China had to face up to this serious problem and aggressively took the microscope controlling measure in the attempt to suppress the increasing housing prices to resolve people's complaints. In the mean time, under the desire for the great profits behind the rapid development of the economy in Mainland China, foreign funds had entered the Chinese market one by one, getting some extra attention of the Chinese government. Because the rumor of "foreign funds in real estate speculation" and some doubles had continuously bothered the Chinese government, under the atmosphere with high housing prices and high social grievance, requests for reviewing foreign funds in the industrial, governmental, academic, and research circles were very broad. However, whether there was real estate speculation with foreign funds behind high housing prices is worth thinking and studying. Using Tianjin City in Mainland China as a target for observation, this study attempted to apply the autoregressive ARDL model to explore the influences of foreign direct investment (FDI) on price changes in housing property, in order to clarify the role foreign funds play in real estate prices. The independent variables included in the model were consumer price index (CPI), per capita income (INC), loan interest (INT), exchange rate (EXC), and stock price (STOCK), in order to observe the influences of the macro economical factors on the Chinese real estate market. According to the empirical results, in the short run, foreign funds could indeed drive up housing prices. However, in the long run, the influence was not significant. This means foreign funds are not the main cause driving up real estate prices. The role they played was a "partner in crime" instead of a "main suspect". The study found that there was indeed a significant and substantial influence of exchange rate changes on real estate prices, meaning that if the Chinese government would like to surprise increasing housing prices using exchange rates as a tool, it is necessary to allow YMB appreciation. However, currently, Mainland China is still a country with mainly exports. In the long run, YMB appreciation may lead to certain impact on China's exportation. Therefore, operating exchange rate related policies may lead to a dilemma (to appreciate or depreciate).

天津經過百年來的努力發展，以及改革開放後濱海新區在「十一五規劃」被納入國家發展戰略，不但成為中國大陸高收入的城市，亦是眾多外資亟欲前往的投資地點。從天津三級產業結構的觀察，可以發現雖然目前天津的第二、三級產業的分布仍與先進國家有所落差，但整體來說，仍是逐漸從二三一的產業結構往三二一的產業結構發展。但1997年至2006年仍發生工業化現象，即工業部門產值比重增加。這段時間亦伴隨產業升級，使得產業結構從消費財產業轉成為資本財產業。由政策上觀察，此結果主要與天津濱海新區的發展關係最密切。 從本研究的ARDL時間序列模型的估計中發現，造成天津工業化的最主要因素為資本勞動比的提升與貿易依存度的增加，而造成產業升級的主要因素則為外資與財政的科技支出。天津政府在經濟迅速發展的條件下，調節產業結構的均衡發展亦是重要任務，使得天津以及中國大陸其他城市能夠早日進入已開發國家的產業結構模式。 / After centuries of efforts to develop and the Binhai New Area being writing into national development strategies in the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" after reform and open-up, Tianjin has not only become the high-income cities in mainland China, but also a location that many foreign investment is anxious to go. According to the observation of Thrice Industrial structure in Tianjin, there is a big gap that the distribution of Tianjin’s secondary and tertiary industry with compared with other advanced countries. However, on the whole, there is still a gradual shift from the industrial structure of two-three-one to three-two-one. From 1997 to 2006, there is still a phenomenon of industrialization in Tianjin, which means that the percentage of secondary industry increasing the whole industrial sectors’ GDP. It’s also accompanied with industrial upgrading, which means that industrial structure will turn from consumer goods industries to capital property industries. From the prospect of policy, this result is most closely related to the development of the Tianjin Binhai New Area. By using ARDL time series model, this study estimates found that the most important factor of Tianjin industrialization was the capital-labor ratio improvement and the increase of trade dependence. The main factor of causing the industrial upgrading was the foreign investment and finance spending on technology. Under the rapid economic development, adjusting the industrial structure for balanced development is also Tianjin Government’s important task that could help Tianjin and other cities in mainland China as early as possible to enter the mode of development of the country's industrial structure.

Malgré la diversité des études théoriques et empiriques, la problématique de la relation compte capital – croissance économique reste une question controversée. L’objet de ce travail de recherche consiste donc à expliciter la nature d’une telle relation dans les économies de la région MENA, tout en tenant compte de la qualité institutionnelle. Dans ce contexte, les différentes estimations ont été effectuées par la méthode des moments généralisés (GMM), sur la période allant de 1986 à 2012, pour 11 pays. Les résultats montrent que la corruption et la responsabilité démocratique influencent négativement la croissance économique si la politique de la libéralisation du compte capital est adoptée. Cependant, le terme d'interaction entre la qualité bureaucratique et l'ouverture financière stimulent positivement la croissance économique. Ces résultats suggèrent alors que les avantages de la libéralisation du compte capital sont conditionnés par les facteurs institutionnels. De ce fait, notre thèse contribue aux débats politiques récents sur les mérites et les démérites de la libéralisation du compte capital. En ce qui concerne le lien entre la libéralisation du compte capital et le développement financier en Tunisie, les différentes estimations ont été effectuées par l’approche autorégressive à retards échelonnés (ARDL), sur la période allant de 1986 à 2014. Les résultats obtenus montrent que l’effet positif de l’ouverture sur le développement financier est bien plus important à long terme qu’à court terme. Par ailleurs, les résultats confirment l’impact négatif de la corruption sur le système financier tunisien. / Despite the diversity of theoretical and empirical studies, the question of capital account–economic growth relationship remains a controversial issue. This research aims to complete the existing evidence focusing on MENA countries, while taking into account the institutional quality. In this context, various estimates were made by generalized method of moments (GMM) over the period of 1986–2012 for 11 countries. The results show that corruption and democratic accountability have a significant and negative impact on economic growth if capital account liberalization is enacted. However, the interaction term of bureaucracy quality and financial openness has a significant and positive impact on economic growth. These findings therefore show that the benefits of capital account liberalization are not unconditional, but are likely to depend upon the environment in which the liberalization occurs. Hence, our thesis contributes to the recent policy debates on the merits and demerits of capital account liberalization. As regards the link between capital account liberalization and financial development in Tunisia, the various estimates were made by the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) over the period 1986 to 2014. The results show that the positive effect of opening on financial development is much more important in the long term than in the short term. Moreover, the results confirm the negative impact of corruption on the Tunisian financial system.

近十年來，因投機需求、游資充斥等原因使台灣房價成長之上升趨勢明顯高於許多國家，房屋交易方面則呈現明顯起伏不定之走勢，台灣政府單位為達成物價穩定、金融穩定與經濟成長等目標並且避免金融危機再度發生，透過制定及執行貸款管制政策，期能有效抑制假性需求與房價上漲趨勢。 然而，貸款管制是否能有效抑制房價，過去未有文獻針對購屋貸款管制工具與房價及住宅交易量觀察長期趨勢關係並缺乏整體性探討，故本研究欲藉由探究貸款成數與購屋貸款餘額占國內生產毛額比率與住宅市場間是否存在長期、短期影響或其間因果關係，以得知是否政策的投入能夠確切影響標的、達成目標。 本文嘗試以 2000 年第一季至2016 年第二季之貸款管制工具變數及總體經變數資料，運用 ARDL Bounds Test、ARDL-ECM 模型及Toda and Yamamoto 因果檢定探究購屋貸款管制變數對於台灣住宅市場間之長期與短期動態關係及因果關係。研究結果顯示，購屋貸款管制變數對於房價及交易量有顯著之影響，尤其對於住宅交易量方面具有較為明顯之效果，因此，期望透過本研究對於台灣未來金融、房市政策規劃提出建議。 / Over the past decade, an abundance of money and speculative demand from the Quantitative Easing (QE) monetary policy drove the housing price in Taiwan to rise sharply, and the volume of housing market is unstable. To stabilize the financial markets, the government have formulated policies on housing markets and mortgage control to curb rising housing prices. In order to understand the effect of mortgage control on curbing housing price, this study examines the long-run and short-run relationship and causality effect among loan-to-value ratio and mortgage-to-GDP ratio and housing markets. This study used ARDL model, bounds test and Toda and Yamamoto causality to analyze quarterly data over the period 2000-Q1 to 2016-Q2. Empirical results show that mortgage control has significant effects on the housing market. Results further shown that the influence on the volume is more obvious than on the price. Results of this study provide precious policy implications for future housing financial sectors.

År 2011 uppfyllde Estland Maastrichtkriterierna, kraven för att ingå i den Europeiska Monetära Unionen (EMU) och kunde därför ansluta sig till valutaunionen. Enligt teori och tidigare forskning förväntas ett lands ekonomiska tillväxt påverkas positivt av ett medlemskap i en valutaunion.Syftet med denna studie har varit att analysera huruvida Estlands anslutning till EMU genererat en positiv effekt på landets ekonomisk tillväxt. Analysen har genomförts genom en tidsserieanalys där åren 2002–2019 undersökts, nio år innan anslutningen till EMU samt nio år efter anslutningen till EMU.Resultatet visar att dummyvariabeln för EMU inte är signifikant, vilket resulterar i att det inte med säkerhet är möjligt att fastställa effekten på Estlands ekonomiska tillväxt. / In 2011, Estonia fulfilled the Maastricht criteria, the requirements for membership of the European Monetary Union (EMU) and was therefore able to join the monetary cooperation. According to theory and previous research, a country’s economic growth is expected to be positively affected by a membership into a monetary union.The purpose of this study has been to analyze whether Estonia's accession to EMU has generated a positive effect on the country's economic growth. The analysis was carried out through a time series analysis in which the years 2002–2019 was examined, nine years before joining EMU and nine years after joining EMU.The results are showing that the dummy variable for EMU is not significant. As a result of that, it is not possible to determine with certainty the effect on Estonia’s economic growth.

This thesis is based on three empirical essays in financial development and economic growth. The first essay, investigated in the third chapter, the effect of financial development on economic growth in the context of Saudi Arabia, an oil-rich economy. In doing so, the study distinguishes between the effects of financial development on the oil and non-oil sectors of the economy. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test methodology is applied to yearly data over the period 1968 to 2010. The finding of this study is that financial development has a positive impact on the growth of the non-oil sector. In contrast, its impact on the oil-sector growth and total GDP growth is either negative or insignificant. This suggests that the relationship between financial development and growth may be fundamentally different in resource-dominated economies. The second essay revisited, in the fourth chapter, the relationship between financial development and economic growth in a panel of 52 middle-income countries over the 1980-2008 period. Using pooled mean group estimations in a dynamic heterogeneous panel setting, we show that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between finance and growth in the long-run. In the short run, the relationship is insignificant. This suggests that too much finance can exert a negative influence on growth in middle-income countries. The finding of a non-monotonic effect of financial development on growth is confirmed by estimating a dynamic panel threshold model. The third essay empirically explores cross-country evidence of the effects of financial development shocks on economic growth. It employs a Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model, which allows us to capture the dynamics of this relationship in a multi-country setting, and connects countries through bilateral international trade. Given the progressive role that Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) play in the world economic arena, this essay focuses on whether financial development in one BRICS member state affects economic growth in the other BRICS. To this end, the study finds empirical evidence that credit to the private sector has a positive spillover effect on growth in some of the BRICS countries. However, the results imply that the current level of financial integration among the BRICS countries is still not mature enough to spur economic growth for all the BRICS members.