This study uses annual data for the period 1975-2014 for South Africa and Botswana, and 1979-2013 for Lesotho to examine empirically the impact of trade openness on economic growth in these three South African Customs Union (SACU) countries. The motivation for this study is that SACU countries are governed by the common agreement for the union that oversees the movement of goods that enter the SACU area. However, although these countries are in a com-mon union, they have quite different levels of development. Based on the country’s level of development, Lesotho is a lower middle-income and least developed country, whereas Botswana and South Africa are upper middle-income economies. Thus, these disparities in the levels of economic development of SACU countries i are expected to have different implications in relation to the extent to which trade openness affects economic growth. It is within this background that the current study seeks to examine what impact trade openness has on economic growth in each of the three selected countries. To check the robustness of the empirical results, this study uses four equations based on four different indicators of trade openness to examine the linkage between trade openness and economic growth. While Equation 1, Equation 2 and Equation 3 employ trade-based indicators of openness, Equation 4 uses a modified version of the UNCTAD (2012a) trade openness index that incorporates differences in country size and geography. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and error-correction modelling, the study found that the impact of trade openness on economic growth varies across the three SACU countries. Based on the results for the first three equations, the study found that trade openness has a positive impact on economic growth in South Africa and Botswana, whereas it has no significant impact on economic growth in Lesotho. Based on Equation 4 results, the study found that after taking the differences in country size and geography into account, trade openness has a positive impact on economic growth in Botswana, but an insignificant impact in South Africa and Lesotho. For South Africa and Botswana, the main recommendation from this study is that policy makers should pursue policies that promote total trade to increase economic growth in both the short and the long run. For Lesotho, the study recommends, among other things, the adoption of policies aimed at enhancing human capital and infrastructural development as well as the broadening of exports, so as to enable the economy to grow to a threshold level necessary for the realisation of significant gains from trade. / Economics

This study empirically examines the impact of monetary policy on economic growth in three East African countries (Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania). The role of monetary policy in promoting economic growth remains empirically an open research question, as both the empirical and theoretical underpinnings are not universal, and the results remain varying, inconsistent, and inconclusive. This study may be the first of its kind to examine in detail the impact of monetary policy on economic growth in Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania – using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds-testing approach. This study used two proxies of monetary policy, namely, money supply and interest rate, to examine this linkage. The results were found to differ from country to country and over time. The Uganda empirical results reveal that money supply has a positive impact on economic growth, both in the short run and in the long run. However, interest rate was found to have a positive impact on economic growth only in the short run. In the long run, interest rate has no significant impact on economic growth. In Kenya, both short-run and long-run empirical results support monetary policy neutrality, implying that monetary policy has no effect on economic growth – both in the short run and in the long run. The results from Tanzania also reveal no impact of monetary policy on economic growth in the long run – irrespective of the proxy used to measure monetary policy. However, the short-run results only reveal no impact of monetary policy on economic growth only when the interest rate is used as a proxy for monetary policy. When money supply is used to measure monetary policy, a negative relationship between monetary policy and economic growth is found to dominate. Overall, the study finds that monetary policy is only relevant for economic growth in Uganda and only when money supply is used as monetary policy variable. Therefore this study recommends a money supply based monetary policy framework for Uganda. The study findings also suggest that monetary policy may not be a panacea for economic growth in Kenya and Tanzania. / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)

The thesis examines the comprehensive relationship between all aspects of financial liberalisation and economic growth in three countries from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Employing ARDL bounds test approach and real GDP per capita as growth indicator; the thesis finds support in favour of the McKinnon-Shaw hypothesis but also finds that the increases in the subsequent savings and investments have not been transmitted into economic growth in two of the studied countries. Moreover, the thesis also finds that stock market developments have negligible or negative impact on economic growth in two of the selected countries. The thesis concludes that in most cases, it is not financial liberalisation polices that affect economic growth in the selected ECOWAS countries, but rather increase in the productivity of labour, increase in the credit to the private sector, increase in foreign direct investments, increase in the capital stock and increase in government expenditure contrary to expectations. Interestingly, the thesis also finds that export has only negative effect on economic growth in all the selected ECOWAS countries. The thesis therefore, recommends that long-term export diversification programmes be implemented in the ECOWAS regions whilst further investigation is carried on the issue. / Economic Sciences / D. Litt et Phil. (Economics)

Using 1980 - 2012 annual data, the study empirically investigates the dynamic relationship between financial development and economic growth in three developing countries (South Africa, Brazil and Kenya) and three developed countries (United States of America, United Kingdom and Australia). The study was motivated by the current debate regarding the role of financial development in the economic growth process, and their causal relationship. The debate centres on whether financial development impacts positively or negatively on economic growth and whether it Granger-causes economic growth or vice versa. To this end, two models have been used. In Model 1 the impact of bank- and market-based financial development on economic growth is examined, while in Model 2 it is the causality between the two that is explored. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and error-correction based causality test, the results were found to differ from country to country and over time. These results were also found to be sensitive to the financial development proxy used. Based on Model 1, the study found that the impact of bank-based financial development on economic growth is positive in South Africa and the USA, but negative in the U.K – and neither positive nor negative in Kenya. Elsewhere the results were inconclusive. Market-based financial development was found to impact positively in Kenya, USA and the UK but not in the remaining countries. Based on Model 2, the study found that bank-based financial development Granger-causes economic growth in the UK, while in Brazil they Granger-cause each other. However, in South Africa, Kenya and USA no causal relationship was found. In Australia the results were inconclusive. The study also found that in the short run, market-based financial development Granger-causes economic growth in the USA but that in South Africa and Brazil, the reverse applies. On the other hand bidirectional causality was found to prevail in Kenya in the same period. / Economics / DCOM (Economics)

The study examines the dynamic relationship between financial development and investment in three Southern African countries (Botswana, South Africa and Mauritius) during the period 1976 – 2014 using annual data. The motivation for selecting these countries is mainly based on their different characteristics in their economic and financial structure. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test approach, the study examines the role of financial development in boosting investment; and the causal relationship between financial development and investment. The study makes use of composite financial development indices and divides financial development into bank-based and market-based financial development. In addition, both the impact of bank- and market-based financial development on investment, on the one hand; and the causality between bank- and market-based financial development and investment, on the other, were examined within the flexible accelerator model/framework. For both models, both bank-based and market-based financial development are assumed as having an accelerator-enhancing effect on investment. Empirical results show that, for Botswana, the impact of bank-based financial development on investment is positive in both the short run and the long run while no impact of market-based financial development is found for both periods. For South Africa, the effect of bank-based financial development on investment is found to be negative in the short run and has no impact in the long run. However, market-based financial development has only a positive effect on investment in the long run. For Mauritius, market-based financial development is the only type of financial development found to have a significant positive effect on investment, and only, in the short run. The results of the causality test show that: for Mauritius, both bank-based and market-based financial development tend to drive investment, both in the short run and in the long run; while- in South Africa, investment drives both bank-based and market-based financial development only in the short run. In Botswana, bank-based and market-based financial development and investment drive each other in the short run while investment tends to only drive bank-based financial development in the long run. Therefore, all three countries show differing results and tend to confirm that there are inter-country differences that determine the relationship between investment and financial development. The inter-country differences maybe as a result of the different stages of financial and economic development for each country. / Economics / D. Phil. (Economics)

This study uses annual data for the period 1975-2014 for South Africa and Botswana, and 1979-2013 for Lesotho to examine empirically the impact of trade openness on economic growth in these three South African Customs Union (SACU) countries. The motivation for this study is that SACU countries are governed by the common agreement for the union that oversees the movement of goods that enter the SACU area. However, although these countries are in a com-mon union, they have quite different levels of development. Based on the country’s level of development, Lesotho is a lower middle-income and least developed country, whereas Botswana and South Africa are upper middle-income economies. Thus, these disparities in the levels of economic development of SACU countries i are expected to have different implications in relation to the extent to which trade openness affects economic growth. It is within this background that the current study seeks to examine what impact trade openness has on economic growth in each of the three selected countries. To check the robustness of the empirical results, this study uses four equations based on four different indicators of trade openness to examine the linkage between trade openness and economic growth. While Equation 1, Equation 2 and Equation 3 employ trade-based indicators of openness, Equation 4 uses a modified version of the UNCTAD (2012a) trade openness index that incorporates differences in country size and geography. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and error-correction modelling, the study found that the impact of trade openness on economic growth varies across the three SACU countries. Based on the results for the first three equations, the study found that trade openness has a positive impact on economic growth in South Africa and Botswana, whereas it has no significant impact on economic growth in Lesotho. Based on Equation 4 results, the study found that after taking the differences in country size and geography into account, trade openness has a positive impact on economic growth in Botswana, but an insignificant impact in South Africa and Lesotho. For South Africa and Botswana, the main recommendation from this study is that policy makers should pursue policies that promote total trade to increase economic growth in both the short and the long run. For Lesotho, the study recommends, among other things, the adoption of policies aimed at enhancing human capital and infrastructural development as well as the broadening of exports, so as to enable the economy to grow to a threshold level necessary for the realisation of significant gains from trade. / Economics / Ph. D. (Economics)

Using 1980 - 2012 annual data, the study empirically investigates the dynamic relationship between financial development and economic growth in three developing countries (South Africa, Brazil and Kenya) and three developed countries (United States of America, United Kingdom and Australia). The study was motivated by the current debate regarding the role of financial development in the economic growth process, and their causal relationship. The debate centres on whether financial development impacts positively or negatively on economic growth and whether it Granger-causes economic growth or vice versa. To this end, two models have been used. In Model 1 the impact of bank- and market-based financial development on economic growth is examined, while in Model 2 it is the causality between the two that is explored. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and error-correction based causality test, the results were found to differ from country to country and over time. These results were also found to be sensitive to the financial development proxy used. Based on Model 1, the study found that the impact of bank-based financial development on economic growth is positive in South Africa and the USA, but negative in the U.K – and neither positive nor negative in Kenya. Elsewhere the results were inconclusive. Market-based financial development was found to impact positively in Kenya, USA and the UK but not in the remaining countries. Based on Model 2, the study found that bank-based financial development Granger-causes economic growth in the UK, while in Brazil they Granger-cause each other. However, in South Africa, Kenya and USA no causal relationship was found. In Australia the results were inconclusive. The study also found that in the short run, market-based financial development Granger-causes economic growth in the USA but that in South Africa and Brazil, the reverse applies. On the other hand bidirectional causality was found to prevail in Kenya in the same period. / Economics / D. Com. (Economics)

The thesis examines the comprehensive relationship between all aspects of financial liberalisation and economic growth in three countries from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Employing ARDL bounds test approach and real GDP per capita as growth indicator; the thesis finds support in favour of the McKinnon-Shaw hypothesis but also finds that the increases in the subsequent savings and investments have not been transmitted into economic growth in two of the studied countries. Moreover, the thesis also finds that stock market developments have negligible or negative impact on economic growth in two of the selected countries. The thesis concludes that in most cases, it is not financial liberalisation polices that affect economic growth in the selected ECOWAS countries, but rather increase in the productivity of labour, increase in the credit to the private sector, increase in foreign direct investments, increase in the capital stock and increase in government expenditure contrary to expectations. Interestingly, the thesis also finds that export has only negative effect on economic growth in all the selected ECOWAS countries. The thesis therefore, recommends that long-term export diversification programmes be implemented in the ECOWAS regions whilst further investigation is carried on the issue. / Economics / D. Litt et Phil. (Economics)

This study examines the public debt, public debt service and economic growth nexus in Zambia, Zimbabwe and South Africa using time-series data from 1970 to 2017. This research provides empirical evidence to contribute, firstly, to the ongoing public policy debate regarding the dynamic relationship between public debt, public debt service and economic growth, and their causal relationship; and secondly, to the relative impact of domestic and foreign public debt on economic growth in the selected study countries. For this purpose, four empirical models were utilised and estimated using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds to cointegration and the error correction ARDL-based causality test. Model 1 explored the impact of aggregate public debt on economic growth, while Model 2 investigated the relative impact of domestic and foreign public debt on economic growth. Model 3 examined the impact of public debt service on economic growth, whereas the causality between aggregate public debt and economic growth, and between public debt service and economic growth is tested in Model 4a and Model 4b, respectively. Results show that in Model 1, aggregate public debt has a positive impact on economic growth in Zambia but is negative in Zimbabwe and South Africa. In Model 2, domestic public debt negatively impacts economic growth in Zambia and Zimbabwe and positive impact in South Africa. In addition, foreign public debt has a positive impact on economic growth in Zambia and negative impact in Zimbabwe and South Africa. The results from Model 3 largely support a negative relationship between public debt service and economic growth in Zambia and Zimbabwe, and an insignificant relationship in South Africa. The causality results for Model 4a indicate that it is economic growth that drives public debt in all the study countries. Finally, no causal relationship between public debt service and economic growth was confirmed in all the study countries (Model 4b). / Economics / D. Phil. (Economics)