L’objectif de cette thèse est l’étude de la croissance et du développement économique des pays émergents à travers l’Investissement Direct Etranger. Les pays émergents adoptent des stratégies d’attractivité des IDE, lesquels favorisent ensuite l’assimilation des transferts technologiques qu’ils véhiculent. Ces stratégies sont articulées autour de plusieurs points : surcroît de réglementation, instauration d’un système de bonne gouvernance, renforcement de la stabilité macroéconomique et développement des infrastructures et du capital humain. Nous nous intéressons aux pays de la région MENA qui viennent de subir des changements politiques et sociaux profonds. Des pays que l’Europe occidentale gagnerait à accompagner, pour assurer le succès de cette phase transitionnelle. C’est pourquoi, nous prenons exemple sur les pays de la région PECO au lendemain de la chute du mur de Berlin et sur les pays de l’Europe occidentale au lendemain de la seconde guerre mondiale. A partir de la décennie 1980, suite à l’effondrement des cours du pétrole qui a eu des conséquences majeures sur leurs économies fragiles, les pays de la région MENA se sont efforcés de diversifier leur économie. Dans un premier chapitre, nous montrons la nature des canaux, à travers lesquels se concrétisent les effets des IDE sur la croissance des pays émergents. A partir des théories récentes de la croissance économique, les politiques d’attraction des IDE menées par les pays émergents constituent un élément moteur de la croissance, à partir du moment où ces pays possèdent un capital humain capable d’absorber les technologies et le savoir-faire véhiculés par l’IDE. Dans un deuxième chapitre et à travers diverses méthodes empiriques, nous établissons les déterminants des IDE. A l’aide de comparaisons à l’échelle régionale, nous nous focalisons, plus particulièrement, sur les déterminants institutionnels à court terme. En nous appuyant par la suite sur un modèle gravitationnel dans les troisième et quatrième chapitres, nous mettons en évidence les déterminants essentiels de l’IDE dans les pays d'Europe centrale et orientale (PECO), ainsi que les éventuelles différences de comportement des investisseurs étrangers envers l’ancienne UE-15 et les PECO, et ce, dix ans après l’élargissement de la Communauté européenne. Nous montrons ainsi un glissement à la fois dans l’orientation géographique des investisseurs mais aussi dans leurs motivations. Nous n’observons donc pas de rapprochement des déterminants des PECO vers ceux de l’UE-15. En revanche, l’effet de concurrence fiscale tend à se diffuser dans les stratégies des firmes des PECO vers l’ensemble de l’Union européenne. Ceci coïncide avec la survenue de la crise qui a occasionné une plus grande volatilité dans les flux d’IDE. Dans le cinquième chapitre, nous analysons à long terme les déterminants institutionnels des IDE dans la région MENA. Nous mettons en relief une panoplie d’indicateurs institutionnels afin d’identifier leur importance relative sur les flux d’IDE ; et ce, après le contrôle des déterminants macroéconomiques. Nous prenons en considération les effets de retournement de conjoncture économique, dus principalement aux récessions et aux crises économiques. Nos résultats indiquent que les indicateurs institutionnels sont positivement reliés aux IDE. Enfin, dans le sixième chapitre, et pour la même région, nous examinons la relation entre la croissance économique, l’IDE, les exportations, la population active et l’investissement en capital. Ladite relation demeurant l'un des problèmes les plus importants de la littérature économique, elle rencontre un regain d'intérêt, principalement pour les pays de la région MENA, qui souffrent de problèmes sociaux, économiques et de retard technologique. En utilisant l’approche ARDL, nous montrons enfin qu’il existe une relation de cointégration entre ces variables, aussi bien à long terme qu’à court terme. / This thesis aims at studying the growth and the economic development of emerging countries through Foreign Direct Investment. Emerging countries adopt FDI-luring strategies, which subsequently guarantee the assimilation of the technological transfers they convey. Such strategies are built around several axes: increased regulation, the implementation of a good governance system, the invigorating of macroeconomic stability and the development of infrastructure and human resources. We focus on the OECD countries that have just undergone profound political and social changes. Indeed, Western Europe has to support these countries to ensure the success of this transitional phase. It is precisely for this reason that we follow the example of the CEEC countries in the wake of the Berlin Wall fall on the one hand and the Western European countries in the aftermath of WWII on the other. Starting from the 1980s, after the collapse of oil prices- which had tremendous repercussions on fragile economies-, the OECD countries sought to diversify their economy. In the first chapter, we show the nature of the channels that materialize the FDI effects on the emerging countries’ growth. With reference to the latest theories of economic growth, the FDI attraction policies adopted by the emerging countries represent a driving force for growth as long as these countries are endowed with human resources capable of absorbing the technologies and the know-how conveyed by the FDIs. In the second chapter, relying on a variety of empirical methods, we establish the FDI determinants. More particularly, we focus on the short-term institutional determinants at a national comparative scale.Then, in the third and fourth chapters, relying on the gravitational model, we highlight the main FDI determinants in the Central and Eastern Europe countries (CEECs) as well as the possible differences of foreign investors’ behavior towards the former EU-15 and the CEEC, and that is ten years after the extension of the European Community. Thus, we show a fall in the investors’ geographical orientation as well as motivations. Therefore, there is no reconciliation between the CEEC’s determinants and those of the EU-15. However, the tax competition seems to spread among the CEEC firms’ policiestowards the EU as a whole. This concurs with the financial crisis which brought about a bigger volatility in the FDI flows. In the fifth chapter, we analyze the long run institutional FDI determinants in the OECD region. We emphasize a range of institutional indicators in order to identify their relative impact on the FDI flows; and this after having examined the macroeconomic determinants. We take into consideration the effects of economic conjuncture downturns, which are mainly due to recessions and economic crises. Our findings show that the institutional indicators are positively related to FDIs.Finally, in the sixth chapter and for the same region, we investigate the relationship between economic growth, FDI, exportation, workforce and capital investment. Since the so-called relationship is still one of the main problems in the economic literature, it has witnessed renewed interest, mainly for the OECD countries, which are affected by social and economic problems as well as a technological gap. Based on an ARDL approach, we eventually show that there is eventually a cointegration relationship between these variables, both in the long run as well as in the short run.

Cette thèse porte sur les déterminants fondamentaux du dynamisme du capital-risque. Notre démarche de recherche vise essentiellement à identifier les facteurs qui ont conduit au développement phénoménal de cette activité aux États-Unis et qui seraient susceptibles d'expliquer le retard de l'Europe en matière du capital-risque. On peut inférer de ce travail plusieurs conclusions. D'une part, l'existence d'un marché financier national dédié aux valeurs technologique ne peut être considérée comme le principal facteur expliquant l'avantage comparatif des États-Unis en termes du capital-risque. D'autre part, la demande et la performance anticipée constituent les fondements et la spécificité du capital-risque américain. Leur faiblesse dans les pays européens peut expliquer le retard de ces derniers. Nous avons également mis en évidence l'importance de l'environnement scientifique et technologique pour le dynamisme du capital-risque. Un résultat qui peut d'un coté, expliquer le retard des pays européens qui souffrent d'insuffisances en termes de dépenses en R&D. De l'autre, il peut rendre compte du succès de deux modèles de capital-risque basés sur la stratégie de recherche et développement, à savoir la Suède et Israël.

I denna empiriska studie undersöker vi den reala växelkursens och reala BNP:s påverkan på Sveriges bilaterala handelsbalans med 11 länder mellan år 1995-2011. Med en felkorrigeringsmodell i ARDL-format testar vi för långsiktig kointegration. Därefter estimeras den reala växelkursens och reala BNP:s påverkan på den bilaterala handelsbalansen. Vi finner endast stöd för J-kurvsfenomenet och uppfyllt Marshall-Lerner villkor i 2 av 11 handelsförbindelser. Istället observerar vi ett starkare samband mellan real BNP och handelsbalansen. Vi finner inte något belägg för att en stark svensk krona försämrar Sveriges handelsbalans på sikt.

The relationship between exchange rate volatility and trade flow has been examined in a number of previous researches. The paper mainly focuses on investigating the impact of exchange rate volatility on export values from Sweden to Germany during 2000:01 and 2011:06. The Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is employed to obtain the estimates of the long run equilibrium and the short run dynamics, simultaneously. The results indicate that the exchange rate volatility has significant short run effects on export value in majority of estimated industries while its meaningful long run impacts do not appear in any cases. However, applying the “bounds test” approach, the co-integration is also found in more than half cases due to long run impacts of other factors such as foreign income on export earnings.

This thesis investigates the relationship between Tobin’s Q and regional housing investment in Sweden for the time period of 1998-2012. The relationship is tested through estimation of two models for time-series analysis, a vector error correction model (VECM) and an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Depending on which model that is used, I find some evidence of positive correlation between Tobin’s Q and regional housing investment in the long run while the short run dynamics of investment does not seem to be explained by Tobin’s Q. By transforming the regional data into a panel data set and running a fixed effects model, I examine the gain in explanatory power of Tobin’s Q from using disaggregated data rather than aggregated. My findings suggest that using disaggregated data improves the explanatory power of Tobin’s Q on investment. However, the Granger Causality test indicates two-way causality between Tobin’s Q and investment, causing endogeneity problem in the estimated equations.

Submitted by Liliane Ferreira (ljuvencia30@gmail.com) on 2018-05-04T12:03:15Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Annelisa Arruda de Brito - 2018.pdf: 1097265 bytes, checksum: 9eeb8a987ced659b1f1b011f91a800f9 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2018-05-07T12:49:24Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Annelisa Arruda de Brito - 2018.pdf: 1097265 bytes, checksum: 9eeb8a987ced659b1f1b011f91a800f9 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-05-07T12:49:24Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Annelisa Arruda de Brito - 2018.pdf: 1097265 bytes, checksum: 9eeb8a987ced659b1f1b011f91a800f9 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-03-20 / Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Goiás - FAPEG / The National Program for the Production and Use of Biodiesel (PNPB) was created to encourage the use of renewable fuels and to promote the inclusion of Family farmers in the production of the feedstock used in its manufacture. However, it is worth to highlight the possibility of encouraging soybean industries to benefit the grain, which is a major source of feedstock used and thus commercialize the co-products of this process. The objective of this work was to determine the export supply model for soybean meal and for soybean oil in Brazil, highlighting the role of increased soybean biodiesel production in the variation of the export offer of co-products from processing. The econometric models were based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL). The results showed that for the soybean meal export, the significant variables in a long-run relationship was the soybean price, the quantity of biodiesel produced, the exchange rate, the Brazilian PIB and the world trade. For the soybean oil export, the only significant variables in a long-run relationship were the Brazilian PIB and the world trade. The quantity of biodiesel produced had a positive influence on the exports of the soybean agroindustrial complex, demonstrating that an increase in its production also leads to an increase in exports, implying that the government program is able to encourage the processing industry and thus obtain a better competitiveness of the industry and greater gains in exports. / O Programa Nacional de Produção e Uso do Biodiesel (PNPB) foi criado para incentivar o uso de combustíveis renováveis e promover a inclusão de agricultores familiares na produção da matéria-prima utilizada em sua fabricação, porém cabe destacar a possibilidade de se incentivar as indústrias do complexo soja a beneficiarem o grão, o qual é a principal fonte da matéria-prima utilizada e assim comercializar os coprodutos desse processamento. O objetivo deste trabalho foi determinar o modelo de oferta de exportação para o farelo de soja e para o óleo de soja no Brasil em relação a quantidade de biodiesel produzida a partir do óleo de soja como fonte de matéria-prima, destacando o papel do aumento da produção de biodiesel oriundo da soja, na variação das exportações dos coprodutos oriundos do processamento. Os modelos econométricos foram baseados no Modelo Autorregressivo de Defasagem Distribuída (ARDL). Os resultados mostraram que para a exportação do farelo de soja, a longo-prazo, o preço da saca de soja, a quantidade de biodiesel produzida, a taxa de câmbio, o PIB do Brasil e as exportações mundiais irão influenciar na quantidade exportada de farelo de soja. Para a exportação do óleo de soja, apenas o PIB brasileiro e as exportações mundiais apresentaram influência significativa a longo-prazo nas exportações. A quantidade de biodiesel possui influência positiva nas exportações do complexo agroindustrial da soja, demonstrando que um aumento na sua produção ocasiona também um aumento nas exportações, implicando o fato de que o programa governamental tem condições de incentivar a indústria processadora e assim se obter uma melhor competitividade da indústria e um maior ganho nas exportações.

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2017-04-17T14:00:34Z No. of bitstreams: 1 iaraalkmimdacruz.pdf: 1489022 bytes, checksum: 693eb8290ebdd1209a52c3ac60abdf92 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2017-04-18T13:42:34Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 iaraalkmimdacruz.pdf: 1489022 bytes, checksum: 693eb8290ebdd1209a52c3ac60abdf92 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-04-18T13:42:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 iaraalkmimdacruz.pdf: 1489022 bytes, checksum: 693eb8290ebdd1209a52c3ac60abdf92 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-02-09 / O presente trabalho tem como objetivo analisar empiricamente de curto e longo prazo do impacto sob a balança comercial do Brasil em resposta a variações da taxa de câmbio no período entre Janeiro 1990 e Outubro de 2015. Essa influência foi averiguada para os principais setores do fluxo comercial entre o Brasil e os principais parceiros econômicos, sendo estes União Europeia, Estados Unidos e Mercosul. A hipótese da curva J afirma que existe uma relação negativa no curto prazo e positiva no longo prazo entre as exportações líquidas e desvalorização cambial. Os trabalhos empíricos sobre a validação da curva J têm alcançado resultados divergentes. Este estudo avança em relação à literatura já existente em dois sentidos: na metodologia utilizada e na desagregação dos produtos presentes na pauta exportadora/importadora do Brasil. É empregada a abordagem de cointegração via modelo ARDL e NARDL, teste de fronteira de Pesaran et al. (2001) e Shin (2014). Os resultados encontrados evidenciam um fraco apoio quando considerado a metodologia não linear para a validação da curva J. A curva J foi validade para alguns setores da relação bilateral Brasil com os Estados Unidos e com a Mercosul, com a União Europeia nenhum setor foi encontrado. / This work aims to empirical analysis of short and long-term impact on the trade balance of Brazil in response to exchange rate depreciation in the period between January 1990 and October 2015. This influence was analyzed for the main sectors of the flow trade between Brazil and the main economic partners, which are European Union, United States and Mercosul. The hypothesis of the J curve states that there is a negative relationship in the short term and positive in the long run between these variables. Empirical work on the validation of the J curve have reached divergent results. This study advances in relation to the existing literature in two ways: the methodology used and the breakdown of products present in the export/import of Brazil. We use the approach of cointegration via ARDL model and NARDL and border test Pesaran et al. (2001) and Shin (2014). The results do not demonstrate that the use of non-linear methodology entails in evidence for the validation of the curve J. The J curve was valid for some sectors of Brazil bilateral relationship with the United States and the Mercosul, the European Union was no sector found.

The effect of immigration on labor-market performance is the subject of various studies; most of those studies focus on the effect of immigrants on wages. The characteristics of the Nordics labor-market cause a shift in the focus to another labor-market outcome. The primary goal of this paper is to study the effect of immigration on the employment rate on a regional level. Two hypotheses are developed to study the correlation between immigration and the employment rate. By utilizing the autoregressive distributed lag technic for panel data, we find a positive association between immigration and the overall employment rate, as well as for immigrants' employment rate. Unit-root tests using both Levin–Lin–Chu and Harris–Tsavalis to test for time trend and cross-sectional dependence, the results show that most of the variables are integrated after the first difference I(1). Following, I perform a Westerlund cointegration test; the results for the two models show a cointegration among the variables. The two estimations developed by Pesaran PMG and DFE show different results for the two hypotheses. For the first hypothesis, Both estimators show a positive impact with the same magnitude of the share of immigrants to the total population on the employment rate, which contradict the hypothesis, and the estimators fail to capture the effect of education on the employment rate. Also, the density tends to affect the employment rate positively. A post estimation diagnostic, namely, the Hausman test, shows that the PMG estimator is both efficient and consistent. The second hypothesis of the correlation between the immigrants’ employment rate and their share of the population produces less clear results. Here the PMG estimators show no association with the share of immigrants, while the human capital coefficient is significant, the density coefficient is in both estimations. The DFE methods for the second hypothesis is similar in results for the first hypothesis, which implies a positive relationship between the share of immigrants and the immigrants' employment rate.

The nexus among foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and the Mexican economic growth has been the subject of a number of recent papers. Yet, previous studies frequently overlook its relationship to human capital and consequently ignore potential interlinkages between the variables. By running an ARDL model and thereafter applying the Granger causality technique derived by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and Dolado and Lütkepohl (1996) this paper investigates the relationship among FDI and economic performance in Mexico during 1970-2018 after incorporating human capital into the framework. When including human capital, measured as gross enrolment ratio in tertiary education, FDI inflows and real GDP per capita have an insignificant long-run relationship. However, this paper finds a Granger-causal relationship running from FDI inflows to human capital. Human capital, on the other hand, precedes real GDP per capita and the main implication is thus that FDI may not spur economic performance directly, but indirectly through its significant effect on the enrolment ratio in tertiary education. Therefore, to ignore the influence of human capital may result in deceptive conclusions regarding the Mexican FDI-growth nexus.

The major aim of the study was to examine the short and long-run relationships and directional causality flow between road transport infrastructure development and economic growth in Namibia for the period 1990-2014. To achieve this objective, the study adopted the auto regression distributive lag (ARDL) Bounds testing approach to co-integration, to examine the short-run and long-run relationship between economic growth and transportation infrastructure in Namibia. The data was sourced from the World Bank Database on GDP from 1990 to 2014, the Namibia National Planning Commission MTEF (Medium-Term Expenditure Framework from 1990-2015) and the Roads Authority Annual Reports from 1999 to 2014, which were imported into the E-view tool to run quarterly regressions from 1990 - 2014. The results confirm a relationship among the variables. The Bounds test results indicated that there exists a long-run relationship among the variables under study. The estimated long-run model showed that there is a statistically insignificant positive relationship between expenditure on road transport and economic growth as well as between information communication technology and economic growth in Namibia. However, the short-run model revealed a positive and statistically significant relationship between expenditure on road transport and economic growth. Conversely, both the long-run and short-run estimates showed a statistically insignificant and negative relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth. Lastly, the Granger causality test results showed no causality between expenditure on road transport and economic growth in Namibia. The present study offers fresh insights to policy makers on crafting appropriate policies to regulate tax consolidation revenue and infrastructure levies collection; secondly, to boost public sector borrowing on international capital markets through bond issues, infrastructure funds and revenue bonds; thirdly, to develop partner financing business models through sector budget support; fourthly, to secure private sector financing through a private debt, private equity or capital structure leveraging business model; and lastly, implementing fast-tightened fiscal and monetary policy measures on foreign direct investment which currently severely affect Namibian capital outflows.