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The Battle of Steel - Impact of U.S. steel tariffs on Swedish steel exports : A synthetic control group approachOetterli, Linn January 2021 (has links)
The aim of this study is to examine whether the 2018 U.S. steel tariffs have negatively impacted Swedish steel exports to the U.S, given that the U.S. is Swedish steel industry’s second most important foreign market and the majority of Swedish steel exports to the U.S. are subject to the tariffs. The theoretical foundation for this study is the standard trade model, which predicts a decline in quantity traded due to tariffs. With monthly export value data for January 2015 to January 2020, the synthetic control method (SCM) is used to create a counterfactual to the steel products subject to tariffs. The study encountered several data limitations which complicated the use of the SCM, but the overall results suggest that in the absence of tariffs, Swedish monthly export value for steel to the U.S. would have higher than it has been with the tariffs.
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Three Essays on Agricultural Trade PolicyNing, Xin 27 November 2019 (has links)
This dissertation consists of three essays examining the impacts of Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Measures on agricultural trade. The first essay estimates the impact of the 2003 Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) outbreak in the US on Japanese beef imports. I develop a source-differentiated demand system of fresh/chilled and frozen beef imports augmented with endogenous smooth transition functions. Results suggest that over one-half of the estimated income, own-price, and cross-price elasticities reached a new regime in the post-BSE period of Japanese beef imports where the competitive relationship and substitutability between US and Australian beef exports changed significantly. The second essay develops a product-line structural gravity model to estimate the trade flow effects of SPS measures that have been flagged as specific trade concerns in the World Trade Organization's (WTO's) SPS Committee meetings for the top 30 agricultural trading countries covering four major product sectors. Our findings are striking and call attention to the need for a deeper understanding of the impacts of SPS measures on WTO members' agricultural trade. Results show that the trade effects of SPS trade concern measures reduce exporters' agricultural trade by 67%, on average, during periods in which concerns were active. Significant heterogeneity in the trade effect of SPS measures exists with average estimated ad valorem equivalent tariffs ranging from 33% to 106%. The AVE effect of SPS concern measures maintained by the US is estimated at 42%, less than a half (a third) of the AVE effects of SPS concern measures imposed by the European Union (China). China's restrictions on Avian Influenza and ractopamine restrictions in pork exports are estimated to be the most prohibitive, causing an AVE effect of 120.3% and 88.9%, respectively. The third essay develops a discrete-time duration model to examine the extent to which these SPS concern measures affect the hazard rate of US agri-food exports during the 1995-2016 period. Results show that SPS concern measures raise the hazard rate of US agri-food exports by a range of 2.1%~15.3%, causing the predicted hazard rate to increase from 21.8% to a range of 23.6%~27.9%. This effect is heterogeneous across different agricultural sectors, with the most substantial effects occurring in US exports of meat, fruits, and vegetables. / Doctor of Philosophy / This dissertation consists of three essays on the examination of Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Measures and their impacts on agricultural trade. The first essay estimates the impact of the US 2003 Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) outbreaks on Japanese beef imports. Using a source-differentiated demand system of fresh/chilled and frozen beef imports embedded with endogenous smooth transition functions, we find that over one-half of the estimated income, own-price, and cross-price elasticities have changed remarkably, causing the Japanese beef import market to reach a new regime in the post-BSE period where the substitution and/or competition relationships between the US and Australia have changed. The second essay develops a product-line structural gravity model to estimate the trade effects of SPS measures flagged as concerns in the WTO's SPS Committee meetings for the top 30 agricultural trading countries covering four major product sectors. Results show that the trade effects of SPS concern measures are negative and significant, with the average estimated AVE tariffs ranging 33%~106%. The AVE effect of SPS concern measures maintained by the US is estimated to be 42%, less than a half (a third) of the AVE effects of SPS concern measures imposed by the European Union (China). China's restrictions on Avian Influenza and various ractopamine restrictions in the production and export of pork products are estimated to be the most prohibitive, causing an AVE effect of 120.3% and 88.9%, respectively. The third essay applies a discrete-time duration model to examine the extent to which SPS concern measures affect the hazard rate of US agri-food exports in 1995-2016. Results show that SPS concern measures raise the hazard rate of US agri-food exports by a range of 2.1%~15.3%, causing the predicted hazard rate to increase from 21.8% to a range of 23.6%~27.9%. This effect is heterogeneous across different agricultural sectors, with the most substantial effects occurring in US exports of meat, fruits, and vegetables.
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An investigation of the long-run relationship between import tariff, import quantity, production and prices in the broiler section of South Africa (April 2010-June 2022)Nkgadima, Kgothatso January 2022 (has links)
Thesis (M.Sc. Agriculture (Agricultural Economics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2022 / The agricultural sector is dominated by broiler production and it is the key source of
animal proteins followed by beef. South Africa is described as a net importer of chicken
meat, given that broiler consumption of broiler is greater than supply. Additionally, the
South African Poultry industry has raised concerns regarding the high influx of cheap
broiler imports into the domestic market. This led to an increase of the ad valorem tariff
charged on poultry imports in April 2020 from a previous adjustment in September
2013. It is vital to understand how import tariff changes affect the broiler sector since
little is known about how domestic broiler production is responding to an increased
tariff. The study, therefore, attempted to determine the relationship between domestic
broiler production, import tariff, domestic prices, and import volume.
The study aimed to investigate the long-run relationship between import tariff, import
quantity, domestic production, and prices (retail and producer) in the broiler sector of
South Africa for the period (April 2010 – June 2020). Brazilian frozen chicken imports
were selected for study given their relatively high domestic demand in South Africa. In
addition, Brazil primarily faces the import tariffs charged by South Africa as the main
country of origin for South African imports. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test,
Johansen Cointegration tests, and the Error Correction Model were used as analytical
tools in achieving the study objectives.
The results for the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test and the Johansen cointegration test
showed that all variables were stationary at first difference and cointegrated. The ECM
results concluded the existence of a long-run relationship between domestic
production, ad valorem tariff, and import volume. As the tariff charged changes, the
domestic production increased by 4% in the long run which might be deemed a small
advantage in terms of the production scale and therefore not sufficient. The study
recommended that strategies that reduce barriers of entry for small-scale farmers such
as reduced production costs be implemented to boost domestic production. Lastly,
since domestic production is responding positively to tariff adjustment, a thorough
investigation is necessary to prove dumping allegations against broiler importers as
this will enable the country to impose anti-dumping duties on all countries. / Agri SETA
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Modélisation des barrières non tarifaires et leur impact sur les échanges internationaux : une application aux pays méditerranéens / Modeling of Non-tariff Barriers and their impact on international trade : an application to Mediterranean countriesMkimer-Bengeloune, Laïla 18 December 2013 (has links)
La doctrine du libre-échange a favorisé la création d’un cadre multilatéral en 1947 avec l’accord général sur les tarifs douaniers et le commerce (GATT) puis avec l’Organisation Mondiale du Commerce (OMC) en 1995. Les négociations commerciales multilatérales sous l’égide du GATT puis de l’OMC, aboutissent à une réduction considérable des droits de douane au niveau mondial. Or, devant la diminution progressive des droits de douane, un fort accroissement des barrières dites non tarifaires (BNT) apparaît.En effet, l’expansion du commerce international et l’extension des règles commerciales multilatérales à de nouveaux domaines, autrefois protégés, tels que l’agriculture, les services et la propriété intellectuelle ont amené beaucoup de pays à faire un usage plus intensif, voire « abusif » des barrières non tarifaires, une issue pour contourner la règle « libre-échangiste ».Ces barrières non tarifaires viennent ainsi compléter, voire remplacer les droits de douane et peuvent réduire, voire annuler la valeur des consolidations tarifaires. De plus, les BNT sont deux fois plus restrictives que les droits de douane, CNUCED, (2005) et elles limitent nettement plus l’accès aux marchés que les droits tarifaires, CNUCED, (2012). Egalement, les BNT peuvent prendre différentes formes, elles n’ont pas le même degré de restrictivité et ne s’appliquent pas de la même méthode. Elles varient en fonction des pays et des produits et correspondent à différents objectifs.La présente thèse s’inscrit dans le cadre des travaux de quantification des barrières non tarifaires et vise l’évaluation du degré de restrictivité des BNT tarifaires appliquées sur les importations des pays sud-méditerranéens (MED) en provenance des pays de l’Union Européenne (UE) dans le cadre de l’intégration euro-méditerranéenne. Ce travail de recherche introduit deux modèles économétriques : le premier modèle est une équation d’ « importations », il évalue l’ampleur des barrières non tarifaires appliquées sur les importations (corrigées des tarifs) des pays MED en provenance du partenaire UE et ceci à travers le calcul des équivalents tarifaires ad-valorem. Le second modèle est une équation gravitationnelle, il estime le rôle des BNT et les coûts de commerce dans les échanges UE-MED pour aboutir à une analyse plus fine de l’impact des BNT et d’autres barrières à l’échange à savoir : les droits de douane ; les coûts de transport ; la performance logistique ; les facteurs de la proximité culturelle et les facteurs institutionnels sur le commerce euro-méditerranéen. / The doctrine of free trade has promoted the creation of a multilateral framework in 1947 with the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and then with the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995. Multilateral trade negotiations under the GATT and the WTO have resulted in a considerable reduction of tariffs worldwide. However, before the gradual reduction of tariffs, a strong increase in non-tariff barriers (NTBs) appeared.Indeed, the expansion of international trade and the expansion of multilateral trade rules to new areas previously protected, such as agriculture, services and intellectual property have led many countries to make more intensive use of non-tariff barriers, a way to overcome the " free-market " rule.These non-tariff barriers thus complement or replace tariffs and may reduce or cancel the value of tariff bindings. In addition, NTBs are twice as restrictive tariffs and imply a much more limited market access than tariffs. In addition, NTBs can take different forms, they do not have the same degree of restrictiveness and do not apply the same method. They vary across countries and products, and correspond to different objectives.This thesis aims to quantify non-tariff barriers and to assess their degree of restrictiveness on imports of Southern Mediterranean countries (MED) from the European Union (EU) in the framework of the Euro- Mediterranean integration. This research introduces two econometric models: the first model is an equation of "imports". It assesses the magnitude of non-tariff barriers applied by MED countries to the EU and other partners through the calculation of ad valorem tariff equivalents. The second model is a gravity equation. It considers the role of NTBs and trade costs in the EU -MED trade to achieve a more detailed analysis of the impact of NTBs and other barriers to trade, such as tariffs, transport costs, logistics performance as well as cultural proximity and institutional factors on the Euro- Mediterranean trade.
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