A Dissertation submitted,.to the Faculty of Arts in ftllfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master in International Relations / Andrew Chakane 2018

Mercantile Law / LL. D.

Regional community in southern Africa has been limited to the region’s states. As a result, deeper notions of community emanating from non-state actors, particularly transnational social movements, continue to be ignored. In an attempt to transcend state centrism, this thesis highlights alternative forms of regional community by exploring the Zion Christian Church (ZCC), one of southern Africa’s biggest and fastest growing cross-border movements. The ZCC is a potential agent for developing regional community from the bottom-up, driving a people-oriented regional integration approach in southern Africa. The ZCC, with its extensive following among the region’s poor, offers a compelling example of a grassroots and truly bottom-up approach to regional community. This thesis explores the possibility of the ZCC as a model of alternative community and identity centred on people’s daily experiences and grounded in a shared history and solidarity. It seeks to highlight the significance of transnational movements like the ZCC to policy makers in the region and it argues that grassroots communities are marching ahead of SADC member states and politicians in the area of integration. There exists a transnational cooperation amongst followers of the ZCC and other grassroots communities across the region and this cooperation transcends the traditional notion of state sovereignty, thereby highlighting deeper notions of what it means to be a community at regional level.

The thesis traces Southern African security dimensions from the Cold War and the period of apartheid in South Africa to the post-apartheid era. It makes an attempt to investigate the prospects of Southern Africa becoming a security community and the processes and practices underlying these efforts. Using the constructivist theory approach to international relations, the thesis argues that the preoccupation with principles of sovereignty and non-interference, a lack of political will and the absence of common values that could help SADC institute binding rules and decision-making are the main blocks that prevent the region from asserting itself as a security community. All these militate against the idea of mutual accountability among SADC member states and have a negative impact on the institutional and functional capacity of SADC. This also prevents SADC from dealing with the emerging non-military human security threats in the region. In consideration of this, the thesis argues that the idea of security community building in Southern Africa remains not only a regional issue, but also requires the involvement of extra-regional actors.

The study investigated the impact of regional financial integration on financial development with specific focus on the SADC protocols on trade and finance and investment. A total of 14 countries made up the study sample and the panel cointegration fully modified ordinary least squares model alongside the GMM were used to estimate the nature of impact. Study findings showed regional integration through the protocol on trade had a positive and significant impact on size and efficiency of the banking sector using the FMOLS estimator. GMM estimations for the same variables were largely insignificant. The results also showed a positive impact of the trade protocol on stock market capitalization but a negative and insignificant impact on stock turnover. The finance and investment protocol had a negative and insignificant relationship with broad money and a positive and significant impact on private sector credit for both estimators. The protocol was found to have had no significant effect on stock market development. The impact of the finance protocol was not significant enough to be detected in global integration measures, implying their implementation may not have significantly improved global integration for SADC countries. The study also uncovered the complimentary relationship between institutional quality and social capital in the financial development process and recommended the development of outward looking integration policies which focus on regional integration with the outside world. / Business Management / D. Com. (Business Management)

The impetus for regional integration draws its rationale from the standard international trade theory, which states that free trade is beneficial to all. Free trade among two or more countries or preferential trade will improve the welfare of the member countries as long as the arrangement leads to a net trade creation in the Vinerian sense. The history of regional economic integration in Southern Africa (SADC) reveals that it has not yet achieved the economic benefits that are attributable to developing regions, namely: higher levels of welfare exemplified by low poverty levels, economic development and industrialisation. Regional economic integration in Southern Africa is constrained by high tariff and non-tariff barriers, archaic infrastructures and multiple memberships among different regional economic communities. A SADC-wide customs union can be successful, provided that countries are allowed to join, when their economies have adjusted and the South African Customs Union (SACU) is used as a nucleus. / Economics / M. A. (Economics)

The impetus for regional integration draws its rationale from the standard international trade theory, which states that free trade is beneficial to all. Free trade among two or more countries or preferential trade will improve the welfare of the member countries as long as the arrangement leads to a net trade creation in the Vinerian sense. The history of regional economic integration in Southern Africa (SADC) reveals that it has not yet achieved the economic benefits that are attributable to developing regions, namely: higher levels of welfare exemplified by low poverty levels, economic development and industrialisation. Regional economic integration in Southern Africa is constrained by high tariff and non-tariff barriers, archaic infrastructures and multiple memberships among different regional economic communities. A SADC-wide customs union can be successful, provided that countries are allowed to join, when their economies have adjusted and the South African Customs Union (SACU) is used as a nucleus. / Economics / M. A. (Economics)

Regional integration gained popularity and is prioritised globally, especially in developing economies, including those on the African continent. This is based on its potential to accelerate trade, stimulate economic growth, and increase access to basic necessities and to induce a sustainable increase in economic output and improved standards of living. Regional integration in the context of developing economies is entirely implicit. Modern literature observes it as a policy option for dealing with a wide variety of issues related to politics, economic factors, and societal welfare. The SACU, existing since 1910, made several trade agreements globally. The union aims at reducing inequalities, ensuring continuous improvement in the general welfare of the population, and sustainable economic growth. Research, though, indicates that the region persistently reflects poor socio-economic conditions. This is accompanied by limited development in infrastructure, lowly skilled and experienced workforce. Primary sector activities dominate their economies, such as mining and agriculture, high levels of inequalities and poverty. Regional integration was implemented differently in several countries globally, and Africa in particular. The research noted that literature on regional integration and its implications on socio-economic development lacks, especially in the context of SACU. A deficiency was also emphasised the universal measurement of regional integration, which is not standardised. Some research employed single variables as a proxy, whilst some composite indices were also compiled and implemented, suiting the diverse setups and environments. The development measurements, therefore, cannot universally be applied attributable to context-specific concerns, prevalent in regions or countries. This study developed the SACU Regional Integration Index (SRII) because the existing indices on regional integration are limited concerning applicability. Most of the indices established in the literature were developed for specific countries and regions with diverse characteristics from those of the SACU region. In addition to a detailed literature review and closing methodological divergencies, this study evaluated the effects of regional integration on socio-economic development in the SACU countries. The objectives of the study were first, to produce the SACU Regional Integration Index. Second, the study aimed at evaluating the effect of regional integration on various socio-economic development factors listed as economic growth, investments, and the Human Development Index (HDI), inequalities and poverty. Third, the study provided policy recommendations to the socio-economic problems encountered by the SACU countries; and lastly, to implement the proposed SRII as a way of providing policymakers with the actual impacts. The study employed the principal component analysis (PCA) to construct the SRII. The Ordinary Least Squares (LSDV), fixed effects and random effects were employed to ascertain the effect of regional integration on socio-economic development in the SACU countries. The constructed SACU index comprises four dimensions. These are trade integration; productive integration; infrastructure integration; and financial and macroeconomic policies integration. The index revealed that SACU countries are dominated by trade and productive integration. Further analysis of the results indicated that collaboration on the financial and macroeconomic policies is lacking and the infrastructure dimension is lagging in the SACU region. Based on the second objective, the results indicate that regional integration is critical in improving trade openness and HDI, especially in Lesotho, Botswana, and Namibia. The effect of regional integration on real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, inequalities, and poverty reduction was realised in the long run through the interaction of all variables under study. This supported the dynamic effects posited by the dynamic theory of regional integration. It was established that growth, though, in infrastructure is insignificant compared to other dimensions of regional integration. This explains why regional integration was unsupportive concerning stimulating investments in all the economies forming the SACU region. The third objective was to proffer policy recommendations. Several practical policy recommendations emerged from this study, based on the literature findings and review. These recommendations include implementing inclusive development programmes, promotion private sector participation in economic activities, and policies, to boost production capacity in the countries in this region. Based on the fourth objective, this study further recommends SACU as a region, to integrate into the global economy. This can be conducted by participating in global production networks for manufacturing and taking advantage of emerging economies. This would diversify their export markets and their sources of finance development. SACU countries should make regional integration and trade a part of their national and sectoral development plans, ensuring coherent trade and industrial policies. They should also improve their labour, education, social protection, and safety nets. With data availability, this research can be extended to incorporate quarterly data or more years of study. Time-series methods can be applied, such as the Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) method. This will increase the sample size and the number of observations, which can improve the outcome from the statistical and econometric analysis. Future studies may also evaluate the applicability of the index constructed in this study. / Economics / D. Phil. (Economics)