M.Comm. / Since the late 1980's / early 1990's Southern Africa has undergone radical political change. Political democratisation and liberalisation impacted on the economies of individual states as well as on economic relations between states in the region. The democratisation process in South Africa in particular, changed the economic power configurations of the region. South Africa opted to become a member of the SADC in 1994 after its first "representative" elections. The country was initially confronted by unrealistic expectations among the other members in the region regarding the contribution that they expected to emanate from this move. South Africa on the other hand was confronted with the realities of its own reconstruction and development needs. The question that had to be answered however, is how economic integration could contribute to the growth and development of the Southern African region. Of particular interest is the role that external forces could/would have on the integration process. This is the central theme of this document.

The objective of this dissertation is to examine the effect of recent trade policy changes on trade and economic growth for southern Africa. This is accomplished by using a dynamic panel data modeling approach to examine the effect of openness on economic growth during the 1990s. The gravity model and Tobit maximum likelihood estimation are used to examine the effect of trade policy changes and two types of spatial separation on the likelihood of trade. The two types of spatial separation are distance and preferential trading arrangements. This study uses sophisticated econometric techniques and a more complete sample of countries than previous studies on southern Africa. / The results show that distance impedes the likelihood of trade. Trade policy changes and the preferential trading arrangements, SADC and COMESA, enhanced trade in southern Africa during the 1990s. The trade stimulating effect was larger for SADC membership. However, some members benefited much more from the existence of preferential relations than other members. The study results indicate that openness affects economic growth.

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A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Arts, University of the Witvvatersrand, for the degree of Master of Arts. / Research for this thesis began in the anticipation of the SADCC's tenth anniversary. It proved to be an opportune moment to assess the organisation's achievements and to re-examine its goals. ln February 1990, F W de Klerk formally initiated a policy of domestic reforms that was to see South Africa re-accepted Into international society. At the same time the Southern Africa region was for a variety of reasons undergoing political and economic upheaval. Speculation about joint ventures between the re-admitted South African state and the SADCC became increasingly popular amongst political commentators. South African businesses, stifled by years of isolation, began to view the region as a lucrative market; and the SADCC, sensing approaching stagnation and a loss of initiative, proposed a restructuring of the organisation. The new organisation, the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) was formally launched in August 1992. It has not been given the same adulation as that accorded to its predeqessor, and in many respects is viewed with the same scepticism as other regional organisations in the developing world. / Andrew Chakane 2018

M.A. (Political Studies) / Sub-Saharan African governments have long expressed their support for increased intra-African trade, but official statistics show that this type of trade. remains Iess than 5% of the total. The continued emphasis on establishing supranational organisations to direct regional trade Iiberalisation through. phased tariff reductions is symptomatic of the strategies dominating most. deliberations on regional integration. Despite the continuing proliferation of multilateral treaties, protocols and resolutions concerned with promoting regional trade, intra-African exchange has stagnated. Recorded barter in Africa's major sub-regional communities has not significantly increased between the late 1970's and today (Barad, 1990: 102). The reason for this absence of progress in the promotion of intra-African trade is most clearly expressed in the fact that Sub-Saharan Africa is experiencing its worst economic crisis to date. According to Williams (1993: 5-6) this crisis is manifested in foreign .debt, poverty and trade.deficits. These conditions are the result of the following: deteriorating terms of external trade, the rise in debt-servicing obligations relative to both export earnings and gross domestic product, climatic conditions such as drought, civil wars and regional disputes, the lack of infrastructure and the overvaluation of African currencies, government and privatesector corruption, and the inability of African states to respond to the oil crisis of 1979-1980. Naldi (1989: 2) adds the neglect of the agricultural sector, unfeasible . industrial programmes, and wasteful prestige projects as factors contributing to the economic crisis. African states have of necessity turned to the industrial nations of the First World for their image and development, since these communities have the technology and finances fundamental to development. This may be themain reason that 95% of all African trade occurs outside the African continent However, African leaders. have long recognised the need for closer regional ties as a way of overcoming the fragmentation of the continent, one of the major constraints on economic development. Ndulo (1992: 17) claims that the economic integration of Africa was the centr8llheme of the 1980 Lagos ?Ian of Action and numerous other high-level statements and reports on African policy and development strategy. Economic integration is perceived by many African states as the ultimate type of regional economic collaboration, and as a promising vehicle for enhancing economic and social development, This idea is reinforced by the relative success of integration in Western Europe and through the United States-Canadian Free Trade Agreement.

The role of institutions – economic freedom – is a critical determinant of economic growth, yet the global distribution of economic freedom is skewed. Economic freedom focuses on personal choice, the ability to make voluntary transactions, the freedom to compete and the security of property rights. The SADC is attempting to alleviate poverty and achieve sustainable development and economic growth. This thesis illustrates that economic freedom, in aggregate, and on an individual component basis, drives economic growth. The annual data for the 12 SADC counties from 2000 to 2009 are used to construct a panel data model to conduct the empirical analyses. Cross-sectional effects, as well as time (period) effects, are valid; and thus, a two-way error-component model is estimated. The Hausman test showed the regressors to be endogenous and correlated with the error term. The Pesaran CD test, suitable for dynamic panels, determined that cross-sections are interdependent; and the cross-correlation coefficient indicated a relatively weak, yet substantial, correlation. The LSDV two-way error-component model is re-estimated using the Driscoll and Kraay standard errors and time-demeaned data to correct for cross-sectional dependence. Given the endogeneity between the idiosyncratic disturbance term and the regressors, the presence of heteroskedasticity and serial correlation, as well as the interdependence amongst the cross-sections, the econometric model is then estimated using the two-step system general method of moments with forward orthogonal deviations – instead of differencing. The results meet all the post-estimation diagnostic requirements: the Arellano and Bond test for second-order serial correlation fails to reject the null hypothesis of no autocorrelation; theSargan test for over-identification fails to reject the null hypothesis that the over-identification restrictions are valid, and the difference-in-Hansen test fails to reject the null hypothesis that the instrument subsets are strictly exogenous. The empirical results confirm the a priori expectations. Economic freedom is a positive and significant driver of economic growth. Investment and economic openness are positively related to growth, whereas government debt decreases growth. Government consumption is an insignificant driver of a country’s growth. The Granger causality test confirmed the direction of causality; economic freedom precedes economic growth; and it is possible for the SADC to improve their growth rates by becoming economically freer. The coefficient of adjustment derived from the error-correction model indicates that the dynamic system takes approximately two years to adjust to the long-run structural level. The Koyck Transformation indicates that the relationship between economic freedom and growth is intertemporal, requiring a lag structure. An impulse-response function shows that a permanent, positive ‘shock’ to economic freedom results in an increase in economic growth, although the extent differs for each country, as well as for the different freedom components. The five individual economic freedom components are all highly significant and positive drivers of growth; however, the magnitude of the elasticity parameters varies. The causality amongst the components indicates that bidirectional causality is present. Therefore, improving economic freedom in one area improves economic freedom in another, creating a multiplier effect.

M.A. / The main purpose and objective of this study was to evaluate and determine the impact of regionalisation in Southern Africa on South Africa's developmental goals. With regionalisation coming to the fore as a contemporary reality of the international political economy and with the importance placed on the Reconstruction and Development Plan by the South African Government, the opportinity presented itself where the dynamic impact of regionalisation could be determined and evaluated in a meaningful and relevant manner. The major research concerning regionalisation in Southern Africa focuses on either the economic viability of integration in the Southern African region, or the form of integration which should be pursued. No single study has tried to determine the possible total impact of the process of regionalisation on a specific country. This study breaches this intellectual and academic impasse by doing a multi-leveled analysis of the impact of regionalisation on South Africa's developmental goals. The motivation for this is to lead to more specific research concerning all aspects involved for all countries concerned. The emphasis falls on the holistic nature of this topic - where spesific focus is placed on the complexity and diversity of the roleplayers involved as well as the determinants which influence them. The specific methodology used was to incorporate varied forms of data-gathering, ranging from interviews with major roleplayers to literature studies. The important fact to emphasize is that regionalisation itself must be seen as a complex structure, evolving to the needs and circumstances of the countries involved. This study shows emphatically that the orthodox theory of regionalisation can not be used in the context of developing countries. This theory is based on the experiences of the European industrialised countries. Their methods of analysis is inappropriate in developing countries. It is showed that project- and functional co-operation would suit the requirements and needs of the Southern African region far better in delivering the benefits accrued through regionalisation. Using this as premiss and focussing on the develomental goals of South Africa - the probable impact of regionalisation was determined and evaluated. The Reconstruction and Development Plan and the White Paper on the Reconstruction and Development Plan was used to identify South Africa's developmental goals. Intense research was done to estimate and determine the probable impact of regionalisation, as well as the policy issues it entails, on these goals. An effort was made to integrate each aspect and sector with other sectors and to highlight the complex nature of these interrelated issues. Only broad discussion and recommendations could be drawn. But these are sufficient to lead to futher studies on each specific aspect as well as giving a broad perspective on how South Africa's development goals will be influenced by the process of regionalisation. From this study the conclusion can be drawn that there will be costs involved for South Africa's participation in regional integration. But the benefits derived from project co-operation could make it worthwhile for South Africa to implement positive policy decisions towards further regionalisation. It is important to notice the intense complexity of each sector and the influence a change in one sector will have on all others. Careful consideration should be given before any action is taken. This serves as justification for the study on the grounds that more studies of this nature is necessary for regionalisation to expand in the region, and for Southern Africa to develop as a region. The other member-countries should conduct studies of a similar nature - and through this the most appropriate policy decisions could be taken to improve the well-being of all the people in this region.

Despite according high priority to regional economic integration and being clustered by regional economic schemes, Africa’s regional economic integration record is not inspiring. With the transformation of the OAU to the African Union (AU), the New Partnership for Africa`s Development (NEPAD) was adopted as the development program of the continent to drive the impetus of economic integration through trade. At the time NEPAD was adopted, regional integration schemes in Africa were facing problems of low intra-regional trade levels despite trade being identified as the engine of activity and economic growth for regional economic integration. The study was centered on Southern Africa with precise attention on SADC. Even though trade is accepted as a vital engine of economic growth and development, this is not the case with SADC. The study was looking at the contribution of NEPAD in intra-regional trade in Africa with special focus on SADC. This was prompted by the fact that regional integration is business as usual within the sub region while problems that have been confronting regional schemes are continuing unabated after the adoption of NEPAD. The study used the historical approach because it provides the study with an advantage of accessing existing literature with regards to what is really stalling intra-regional trade in SADC. The study findings noted that NEPAD has not fully addressed the problems of intra-regional trade within SADC and the continent at large. The study lastly concludes by giving a way forward for NEPAD to respond to the specific needs of SADC for the promotion of intra-regional and equitable trade.

In order to assess the question as to whether the Southern African Development Community in principle attracts foreign direct investment, literature and data have been cited that compared the economic profiles and relative privatisation programs of member states of the Southern African Development Community with relative high inflows of foreign direct investment with the economic profiles and relative privatisation programs of member states with relative low inflows of foreign direct investment. Qualitative research has been conducted, and the author is of opinion that generally the member states with relative high foreign direct investment inflows had economic profiles and relative privatisation programs that encouraged foreign direct investment, and member states with relative low foreign direct investment inflows had economic profiles and relative privatisation programs that deterred foreign direct investment inflows. From the above the author has inferred that the Southern African Development Community in principle attracted foreign direct investment, but not to its full potential. The reason may be that although the member states’ economic profiles are favourable for foreign direct investment, their economic growths tend to fluctuate, and the future economic profiles are therefore unpredictable. With the above in mind this mini-treatise aims to address the question as to what steps the governments of the Southern African Development Community’s member states could follow in order to attract foreign direct investment. iii The author is of opinion that the member states should endeavour to maintain an annual average economic growth rate, and that the governments continue to engage into privatisation programs in order to encourage foreign direct investment.

Thesis (MA (Political Science. International Studies))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Southern Africa as a region requires a rallying point from where they can integrate and mobilize their resources in order to create a security community, which acts both as a deterrent to the outbreak of conflict and regional bloc to protect local industries from global forces. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) does not have the strong relationship which usually exists between states that share a common goal or interest. The study argues that the lack of leadership within the region accounts for the weak cooperative relationship that presently exists in Southern Africa. This study argues that regionalization does not come about unless the states in a particular region want it. It may come about through spontaneous or unintended convergence in terms of political regime, economic policy or security, but often one can identify a triggering political event which sets the process in motion. The study argues that the Development Corridors apparent in Southern Africa can act as the triggering event and have the promise to forge the most feasible cooperation amongst regional states. The phenomenon of Peace Parks rooted in the Spatial Development Initiatives, offer a unique type of regional integration embedded on traditional focal areas and Southern African Identity. This study intends to analyze the potential ability of regional hegemony to foster peace through development. The primary objective of this study consequently is to examine the role of regional hegemonies as tools for peace; using South Africa’s hegemony in Southern Africa as a case study. This study describes the importance of South Africa as a regional hegemon to lead the process of creating a peaceful co-existence in SADC. To achieve the research objectives the following questions have been formulated: What is South Africa’s role as a development partner in Southern Africa? The second research question asks how the political economy of regionalism is apparent in the Spatial Development Indicators (Development Corridors). Specifically what contribution could Spatial Development Initiatives make towards SADC’s regional integration objectives? The research questions provide an impression of major socio-political developments looming in the region and also seek to provide the required tools to analyze and understand what is going on in Southern Africa today. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Suider-Afrikaanse streek het ’n definitiewe behoefte om ‘n sentrale punt te identifiseer waar beide integrasie kan plaasvind en hulpbronne gemobiliseer kan word om ’n veiligheids gemeenskap te skep. Dit kan as ’n definitiewe teenvoeter dien vir die onstaan van konflik en om plaaslike industrie te beskerm teen die soms negatiewe invloed van internasionale magte. Die Suider-Afrikaanse Ontwikkelings Gemeenskap (SAOG) het huidiglik nie ’n sterk verhouding wat tussen state met gemeenskaplike doelwitte en belange heers nie. Die kern argument van hierdie studie is dat die tekort aan leierskap binne die streek een van die hoofoorsake is vir die algemene swak samewerking wat tans bestaan in Suider-Afrika. Die studie argumenteer dat sogenaamde streeks/regionale integrasie nie tot stand kan kom tensy die state in ’n spesifieke streek ’n definitiewe behoefte daartoe het nie. Dit kan wel onstaan deur middel van ’n spontane samevloei van politieke regimes, ekonomiese beleid en veiligheid. Daar is soms egter ’n spesifieke gebeurtenis wat die proses laat onstaan. Die studie argumenteer dat die sogenaamde Ontwikkelings Deurgange (‘Development Corridors’) wat tans in Suider-Afrika ontwikkel as ’n moontlike vertrekpunt gesien kan word wat die beste kans bied om samewerking tussen state te bevorder. Die onstaan van Vredes Parke (‘Peace Parks’) gevestig binne die Ontwikkelings Deurgange, bied ’n unieke vorm van regionale integrasie in Suider-Afrika. Hierdie studie het ten doel om die potensiële moontlikheid van regionale hegemonie om vrede te bewerkstellig deur middel van ontwikkeling te ontleed. Die hoof doelwit van hierdie studie is om die rol van regionale hegemonie as instrument van vrede te ontleed. Die studie sal spesifiek die gevallestudie van Suid-Afrika se regionale hegemonie in Suider-Afrika ondersoek. Hierdie studie beskryf die belangrikheid van Suid-Afrika as ’n streeks moondheid om die leiding te neem om vreedsame samewerking binne die SAOG te bewerkstellig. Die volgende belangrike vrae is in hierdie studie gestel: Wat is Suid-Afrika se rol as ’n ontwikkelings-vennoot in Suider-Afrika? Die tweede vraag probeer vasstel tot watter mate die politieke ekonomie van regionale samewerking tans bestaan in die Omgewings Ontwikkelings Indikatore (die sogenaamde ‘Development Corridors’). Watter spesifieke bydraes kan hierdie inisiatiewe lewer om die SAOG se regionale integrasie doelwitte te bereik? Die vrae probeer ’n geheel indruk skep hoe die Omgewings-Ontwikkelings Inisiatiewe (‘Spatial Development Initiatives’) tans bydra om ’n beter begrip te skep van huidige verwikkelinge in Suider-Afrika.