This comparative study, undertaken in the anthropological tradition of long-term field research, highlights the impact of agricultural "betterment" schemes in two rural communities - Chatha in Keiskammahoek district, Ciskei and Shixini in Willowvale district, Transkei. The authors provide a wealth of historical, sociological and ecological detail to describe and assess the implications of the continuation of the present official "betterment" strategy. This is done by comparing conditions in Chatha, where the strategy was implemented in the 1960s, with those in Shixini, where it was being implemented during fieldwork. / Digitised by Rhodes University Library on behalf of the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER)

MSCAEC / Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness

No description available.

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study is based on the personal four-year journey of the researcher in an attempt to develop an off-grid, sustainable self-sufficient livelihood and habitation on a 1 000-square metre piece of rural land in the heritage mission village of Suurbraak, Western Cape, South Africa. This single case study attempts to embody a comprehensive antithesis to the current rural settlement approach implemented in South Africa. The approach is philosophical, applying Hegel’s “determinate negation” conception of reality, as dialectic between a conception of “thesis” as global, scientific and regulated resulting in large-scale agriculture, poisoning of nature and inappropriate low-cost housing and its “antithesis” as grounded, philosophical, healthy subsistence habitation on the actual land. This study, shaped by a literature review, proposes a concept coined ‘niche settlement’, comprising four focus areas as regards sustainable self-sufficiency: an owner-built dwelling from local materials, farm produce for consumption and self-medication, rain and energy harvesting, and taking responsibility for waste. In order to validate the case study contextually, an action research methodological approach was adopted. This began with a field study to interview marginal small-scale farmers, enriched by a land-use survey in the Suurbraak agri-village, in order to clarify the determinants for successful subsistence. These were land availability, proximity of land to homestead, appropriate scale, access to water, enabling legislation, and access to inputs and labour. The critical nature of these determinants is then shown as regards the niche settlement case study. The interplay of Swellendam Municipality regulations reveals contradictions that entail that the above determinants are not facilitated. This threatens a vulnerable two-century old agrarian heritage. The ensuing dialectic between the researcher and municipal officials who - when confronted by the contradictions - undertook to revise certain zoning decisions that threatened the viability of niche settlement approaches. The determinants may prove fertile ground for further research as criteria to shape rural settlement policy with respect to land use, particularly given the need to factor in the looming global recession, the food crisis and peak oil. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie is op die vier jaar lange persoonlike reis van die navorser self baseer. Dit behels 'n poging om 'n kwart akker stuk grond in die landelike erfenis sending-dorp van Suurbraak, in die Wes-Kaap Provinsie in Suid-Afrika te bewoon en daarop ‘n off-grid, volhoubare en selfversorgende bestaan te ontwikkel. Hierdie enkele gevallestudie poog om 'n omvattende antitese te beliggaam tot die benadering tot landelike nedersetting soos tans in Suid-Afrika geïmplementeer. Die benadering is filosofies, en pas toe Hegel se "beslissende weiering" konsepsie van die werklikheid, as dialektiek tussen 'n opvatting van die "tesis" as: globaal, wetenskaplik en gereguleerd wat grootskaalse landbou, die vergiftiging van die natuur en lae-koste behuising tot gevolg het en sy "antitese": gegrond, filosofies en gesonde bestaansboerdery op die grond. Die dialektiek kontrasteer die tesis op 'n makro-en kollektiewe vlak en die antitese op 'n mikro-en persoonlike vlak, wat aanleiding gee tot 'n "sintese", waaruit nuwe antwoorde ontstaan in die beslissende ingebed, eerder as in algemene teoretiese abstraksies. Kritiese oplossings lê vlak versteek in die mikrokosmos detail of in die konteks. Dit wil sê, is gedetermineerd vermom en vereis 'n metodiese en gefundeerde benadering wat nóg weke nóg maande, maar jare eerder van geduldige navorsing verg om te bemag. Die Hegeliaanse metode soos gebruik beklemtoon dat dit onwaarskynlik is dat "begrippe" met hul kontekstuele "standaard begrippe" sal ooreenstem, maar in die proses van aanpassing word eindelose antwoorde uit die fynere detail van bepaalbare werklikheid opgetel. Hierdie antwoorde, wanner van toepassing, het die potensiaal om antitetiese manifestasies van die werklikheid in werklikheid te verifieer; die mikro is in staat om die makro te verklaar deur middel van 'n proses van die verwesenlikte waarheid. Hierdie studie, deur 'n literatuuroorsig toegelig, stel 'n konsep geskep as "nis nedersetting” voor. Dit bestaan uit vier fokusareas wat betref volhoubare self-genoegsaamheid: 'n eienaargeboude woning van plaaslike materiale, eie plaasprodukte vir verbruik en selfmedikasie, die oes van reën en energie, en die neem van verantwoordelikheid vir afval. Ten einde die gevallestudie kontekstueel te waarmerk, is 'n aksie-navorsing metodologiese benadering ingeneem. Dit het begin met 'n gedokumenteerde veldstudie waarin onderhoude met marginale kleinskaal boere gevoer is en is verryk deur 'n grondgebruik-opname in die Suurbraak agri-dorp, ten einde die determinante vir 'n suksesvolle bestaansboerdery uit te lig. Dit het gelei tot 'n dieper begrip van wat die sukses van soortgelyke nis projekte bepaal: die beskikbaarheid van ’n (grond-)perseel, bewerkbare grond naby die woning geleë, toepaslike skaal, toegang tot water, bemagtigende wetgewing en toegang tot insette en arbeid. Die kritiese aard van hierdie determinante word met betrekking tot die gevallestudie getoon. Die wisselwerking van die Munisipaliteit Swellendam se regulasies openbaar teenstrydighede wat behels dat die bogenoemde determinante nie gefasiliteer is nie). Dit is teleurstellend deurdat dit 'n kwesbare twee-eeue oue agrariese erfenis bedreig. Die daaropvolgende dialektiek tussen die navorser en munisipale amptenare wat - gekonfronteer met die teenstrydighede geopenbaar in wetgewing en regulasies met betrekking tot die erfenis, grondgebruik en sonering - onderneem het om sekere besluite wat die lewensvatbaarheid van die nis nedersetting benaderings bedreig het om te keer, manifesteer sodoende as 'n sintese. 'n Verdere voorbeeld van sintese is die voorstel dat die belangrikste determinante effektief toegepas kan word as kriteria om vorm te gee aan die landelike nedersettingsbeleid met betrekking tot grondgebruik, veral gegewe die behoefte om die dreigende wêreldwye resessie, die voedsel-krisis en piek olie saam daarby onder sig te neem.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2011. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die besigheidsomgewing van die landbou industrie ondervind huidiglik baie veranderinge op makro sowel as teikenmarkomgewing met faktore wat nie noodwendig in die nabye toekoms gaan verbeter nie. Gebeure op die makro en teikenmarkomgewing het gelei tot meer onsekerheid en verhoogde mededinging binne die industie. Die doel van hierdie studie is om 'n perspektief te gee van 'n volhoubare besigheidsmodel vir Denau Boerdery, 'n familebesigheid, primêr betrokke in die produksie van tafeldruiwe en sagtesitrus. Met 'n analise van die eksterne en interne omgewing waarbinne Denau Boerdery opereer poog hierdie studie om die besigheid strategies kompeterend te posisioneer vir die langtermyn. Die navorsingsvraag van die studie is: Wat is die optimale besigheidsmodel vir Denau Boerdery om volhoubaar kompeterend geposisioneer te wees oor geslagte heen? Die ondersoekvelde wat op hierdie probleem impakteer is die rigting waarin die globale sagtevrugtebedryf neig ten opsigte van produksie, verpakking, verkoeling, distribusie en die dinamika binne die bemarkingswêreld vir tafeldruiwe en sitrus. 'n Kombinasie van interpretivisme (interpretivism) en subjektivisme (subjectivism) is as navorsingsfilosofie in hierdie studie gebruik. 'n Induktiewe benadering is in hierdie studie gebruik. Die resultaat van die induktiewe benadering sal wees om 'n teoretiese model te formuleer. Die benadering van hierdie studie is om 'n gevallestudie te doen met Denau Boerdery as die onderwerp van die gevallestudie. Kwalitatiewe data is ingesamel deur relevante literatuur en semi-gestruktureerde onderhoude. Vir die doel van hierdie studie is strategie gedefinieer as die kompeterende aksies en bestuursbenadering wat bestuurders gebruik om die besigheid te groei en om klante te trek en te bevredig. Hierdie kompeterende aksies en bestuursbenadering het ten doel om suksesvol mee te ding en operasionele aktiwiteite so uit te voer dat geteikende vlakke van organisatoriese prestasie bereik word. Waar tradisionele strategie gefokus het op die pas van bestaande hulpbronne op ontwikkelende geleenthede, probeer 'n dinamiese strategiese benadering om gapings vir organisasies sigbaar te maak tussen hulpbronne en aspirasies. Hierdie geidentifiseerde gapings skep die energie en motivering vir bestuur om aksie te mobiliseer wat die balans herstel. Die studie toon dat strategiese argitektuur beskryf kan word as 'n hoëvlak bloudruk vir die ontwikkeling van nuwe funksionaliteite, die verkryging van nuwe vaardighede of die migrasie van bestaande vaardighede en 'n omvorming van die interaksie tussen besighede en kliënt. Die strategiese argitektuur is 'n organisasie se kern logika om waarde te skep op 'n volhoubare basis en vorm daarom die grondslag van 'n organisasie se kompeterende potensiaal. Dit beïnvloed ook die huidige kompeterende optrede van 'n onderneming en kan daarom verduidelik hoekom 'n onderneming dalk nie kompeterend in huidige omstandighede is nie. Die strategiese argitektuur van 'n besigheid is nie dieselfde as die besigheidsmodel nie. Die strategiese argitektuur van 'n besigheid is 'n meer uitgebreide en omvattende strategiese beskrywing. Die besigheidsmodel is 'n integrale onderafdeling van die strategiese argitektuur. Volgens die litratuurstudie bestaan die hoofkomponente van 'n strategiese argitektuur die analise en ontwikkeling van: - beskrywings van kern aspirasie of 'n strategiese filosofie bestaande uit die missie, visie en organisasie waardes; - die eksterne omgewing - 'n konteksanalise wat die kompetisie in die industrie asook verbruikersneigings en -patrone reflekteer; - die interne omgewing - 'n konteks-analise bestaande uit 'n finansiële analise, interne waardeketting, kernvaardighede, produk posisioneringsanalise en strategiese kwessie-analise -'‟n besigheidsmodel-beskrywing wat die volgende insluit: o deelnemingstrategie o hulpbronstrategie o kompeterende strategie o winsstrategie - die scenarios en vooruitsigte; - die strategie-uitvoeringspraktyke wat die volgende insluit: o strategiese temas of fokusareas o strategiese padkaart wat strategiese doelwitte verteenwoordig o gebalanseerde telkaart wat strategiese metings verteenwoordig - 'n strategiese innovasiesiklus wat insluit: o besigheidsmodel-innovasie o interne en eksterne begrip o konvergerende en divergerende strategiese gesprekke. Die studie beklemtoon die belangrikheid van die implimentering van 'n strategie. Gesofistikeerde beleggers het tot die gevolgtrekking gekom dat uitvoering van strategie selfs belangriker is as visie. Navorsing toon dat twee woorde gereeld opduik waar deurbrake by uitvoering van strategie gemaak is naamlik: 'belyning' en 'fokus'. Strukture word ontwerp om die uitvoering van die strategiese plan te dryf. Strukture maak dit vir mense moontlik om verwagtinge waaraan hulle moet voldoen op so 'n wyse te definieer dat dit altyd fokus om die kapasiteit van die sisteem te verbeter en sodoende die bestaande verbruikers gelukkig te hou en nuwe verbruikers te trek. Om dit te bereik definieer die organisasie baie duidelik wat van mense op alle verantwoordelikheidsvlakke verwag word om hierdie doel te bereik. Volhoubaarheid van 'n besigheid beteken om besigheidsbedrywighede so uit te voer dat dit nie die vermoë van toekomstige geslagte om na hulself om te sien, benadeel nie. Vir hierdie studie is die term volhoubaarheid in 'n strategiese ekonomiese konteks gebruik en het nie op die natuurlike en sosiale aspekte gefokus nie. Uit die literatuur kan korporatiewe bestuur soos volg gedefinieer word: dit is die gepaste samestelling van die raad van direkteure se strukture, prosesse en waardes om te voldoen aan die vinnig veranderende vraag van aandeelhouers en belangegroepe oor hul besigheid Die King III verslag poog om aan die spits van internasionale korporatiewe bestuur te bly. Die filosofie van die verslag handel oor leierskap, volhoubaarheid en korporatiewe eienaarskap. Die onderwerp van studie in hierdie tesis is 'n gevallestudie van 'n familiebesigheid. Vir hierdie studie is 'n famliebesigheid soos volg definieer: - ten minste 51 persent van die besigheid besit; - ten minste twee familielede betrokke is by die bestuur van die besigheid; en - die oorgee van bestuur en eienaarskap na die volgende generasie in die familie in die vooruitsig gestel word. Uit die literatuur is dit duidelik dat in diepte kennis van 'n besigheid se eksterne en interne omgewing 'n voorvereiste vir bestuurders is om daarin te slaag om 'n strategie te formuleer en te belyn met die besigheid se situasie en omgewing om sodoende te bou op die mededingende voordeel en die besigheid se prestasie te verbeter. Dit is duidelik dat Denau Boerdery in 'n baie mededingende omgewing besigheid doen. Faktore in Denau Boerdery se makro-omgewing wat nie ignoreer kan word in hul strategiese posisionering is die onsekerheid wat 'n gebrek aan 'n groenskrif vir grondhervorming te weeg bring, die wisselvallige wisselkoers, MIV/Vigs se gevolge en klimaatsverandering se potensiele negatiewe gevolge. Faktore in die teikenmarkomgewing wat die grootste invloed op Denau Boerdery se strategiese posisionering kan uitoefen sluit in: - nuwe geleenthede en markte as gevolg van globalisering, - verandering in die koopkrag van supermarkte, - meer gesofistikeerde verbruikers, - intergrasie moontlikhede in die waardeketting, en - verhoudinge met sleutel besluitnemers in die mark. Denau Boerdery se interne analise toon dat die besigheid finansieel gesond is en oor 'n sterk balanstaat beskik. Denau Boerdery weeg goed op teen die meeste van die industrie se KSF'e, maar produksievolumes per hektaar kan verbeter. Voorwaardse integrasie van die besigheid deur as 'n produsente uitvoerder geposisioneer te wees pas in by huidige marktendense. Denau Boerdery volg 'n gefokusde gedifferensieerde strategie en die waardeproposisie is in opsomming op die volgende elemente gebou: - Effektiewe waardeketting na verbruikers. - Die Hoekstra Superfruit Handelsmerk. - Hoekstra Fruit Exporters se vermoë om druiwe vanaf November tot April te lewer. - Persoonlike identifisering met die Hoekstra handelsmerk en die deurlopende ontwikkeling van die handelsmerk. - Die lewering van 'n diens aan supermarkte om produkte op die regte tyd, in die gevraagde kwalitiet, in die ooreengekome hoeveelheid met die korrekte dokumentasie te voorsien. - Goeie, direkte verhoudinge met sleutel besluitnemers in die mark. - Voldoening aan alle internationale etiese en voedselveiligheidsakreditasies. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The business environment of the agricultural industry is currently experiencing many changes on macro level as well as in the target market environment, with factors that may not necessarily improve in the near future. Events in the macro- and target market environments lead to more uncertainty and increased competition within the industry. The goal of this study is to give a perspective of a sustainable business model for Denau Farms, a family business involved mainly in the production of table grapes and soft citrus. With an analysis of the external and internal environments within which Denau Farms operates, this study aims to position the business for strategic competitiveness in the long term. The research question of this study is: “What is the optimal business model for Denau Farms to be positioned in a sustainable and competitive way over a number of generations?” The research fields that impact on this problem relates to the direction in which the global deciduous fruit industry tends regarding production, packaging, cooling, distribution and the dynamics within the marketing world of grapes and citrus. A combination of interpretivism and subjectivism is used as research philosophy in this study and an inductive approach was used. The result of the inductive approach will be to formulate a theory. The strategy is to do a case study with Denau Boerdery as the subject of the study. Qualitative data was collected through relevant literature and semi-structured interviews. For the purpose of this study, strategy is defined as the competitive action and management approach that managers use to grow a business and to draw and satisfy client's needs. These competitive actions and managment approach aims to compete successfully and perform operational activities in such a way that targeted levels of organisational performance can be reached. Where traditional strategy focuses on fitting existing resources to developing opportunities, a strategic aim points out gaps between resources and aspirations. The study shows that strategic architecture can be described as a high level blueprint for the development of new functionalities, the acquiring of new skills or the migration of current skills and the transformation of the interaction between businesses and clients. The strategic architecture is an organisation's core logic to create value on a sustainable basis and, therefore, forms the foundation of an organisation's competitive potential. It also influences the current competitive behaviour of an organisation and can, therefore, explain why an organisation is not currently competitive. The strategic architecture of a business is not the same as the business model. The strategic architecture of a business is more expanded and an extensive strategic description. The business model is only one subdivision of the strategic architecture. According to the literature, the main components of a strategic architecture is the analysis and development of: - descriptions of core aspirations of a strategic philosophy existing of the mission, vision and organisation's values; - the external environment – a context analysis reflecting the competition in the industry as well as the consumer trends and patterns; - the internal environment – a context analysis existing of a financial analysis, internal value chain, core skills, product positioning analysis and strategic issue analysis; - a business model description including the following; o participation strategy o resource strategy o competitive strategy o profit strategy - the scenarios and prospects; - the strategy implementation practices consisting of the following; o strategic themes of focus areas o strategic roadmap representing strategic goals o balanced scorecard representing strategic measures - a strategic innovation cycle including; o business model innovation o internal and external understanding o convergent and divergent strategic talks The study accentuates the importance of implementing a strategy. Sophisticated investors have come to the conclusion that the execution of a strategy is even more important than vision. Research shows that two words often surface where breakthroughs are made in the execution of a strategy, namely alignment and focus. Structures are designed to drive the execution of the strategic plan. Structures make it possible for people to define the expectations they must adhere to in such a way that it always focuses on improving the capacity of the system in order to keep the current consumers happy and to draw new consumers. To achieve this goal, the organisation clearly defines what is expected of people on all levels of responsibility. Sustainability of a company means to execute business activities in such a way that it doesn't disadvantage the ability of future generations to look after themselves. For this study, the term sustainability is used in a strategic economic context and doesn't focus on the natural and social aspects. From the literature, corporate management is defined as: the appropriate composition of the board of directors' structures, processes and values to comply with the fast changing demand of shareholders and interest groups about their business. The King III report aims to stay on the cutting edge of international corporate management. The philosophy of the report concerns leadership, sustainability and corporate ownership. The subject of the study in this thesis is a case study of a family business. For this study, a family business is defined as follows: - at least 51 percent of the business is owned by the family; - at least two family members are involved in the management of the business; and - there is the prospect of handing over the management and ownership to the next generation in the family. From the literature, it is clear that in-depth knowledge of a business' external and internal environment is a prerequisite for managers to be able to successfully formulate a strategy and to align it with the business situation and environment in order to build upon the competitive advantage and improve the business‟ achievement. It is clear that Denau Farms is doing business in a very competitive environment. Factors in Denau Farms' macro environment that cannot be ignored for their strategic positioning is the uncertainty that a lack of a green paper for land reform brings about, the fluctuating exchange rate, the effects of HIV/Aids and climate change's potential negative effects. Factors in the target market environment that can have the greatest influence on Denau Farms' strategic positioning include: - new opportunities and markets that is a result of globalisation, - changes in the buying power of supermarkets, - more sophisticated consumers, - integration possibilities in the value chain, - relationships with key decision makers in the market. Denau Farms' internal analysis shows that the business is financially sound and has a strong balance sheet. Denau Farms weigh up well against most of the industry's critical success factors (CSFs) but production volumes per hectare can improve. Forward integration of the business through being positioned as a producer-exporter fits in with current market trends. Denau Farms follow a focused, differentiated strategy and the value proposition is built on the following elements: - Effective value chain to consumers - Access to the Hoekstra Superfruit trademark - Hoekstra Fruit Exporters' ability to deliver grapes from November to April - Own interest - Good, direct relationships with key decision makers in the market - Compliance to all international ethical and food safety accreditation

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / Contract farming is being given renewed attention on the African continent in the wake of reduced public expenditure for credit programmes. Many African countries have recognised the potential of contract farming in linking farmers to viable markets and stimulating agricultural production in the face of globalisation. In Zimbabwe prior to 1998, smallholder farmers were poorly integrated in the cash economy and had extremely low incomes, largely due to poor access to productivity-enhancing inputs. Small-scale farmers were marginalised as the economy focused on the larger commercial farms. Currently, mainstream banks have been unable to provide funding due to their own capital inadequacy and the view that smallholder farming is a risky and unprofitable sector. There is also a shift in roles as the government moves from direct participation in agricultural production and marketing towards facilitation, legislation and enforcement. The private sector is now participating more actively in the agricultural sector, providing credit to smallholder farmers. This research seeks to better understand the partnership between private and public sector players in Zimbabwe’s agricultural credit programmes, through a study of Leo Marketing and the Zimbabwe Agricultural Market Development initiative called the Agricultural Input Supply Programme (AISP). In this research, the Mutasa Garlic Project, implemented by the AISP, has been analysed to achieve the objective. One hundred smallholder farmers have been contracted to commercially produce garlic in the Mutasa district. Using a sample of 20 farmers, the study examined how this financing model contributes to improved access to productivity-enhancing inputs, viable markets and technical expertise for the farmers. The analysis indicates that farmers have access to inputs but the model still needs improvement in distributing them efficiently to ensure that all farmers have their inputs in time for the planting season. Marketing and extension services in the project are operating well. The study reveals that there is potential for growth in the number of farmers contracted to the programme. As the contracting model continues to improve, the same model can be used for similar projects in surrounding districts.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2015. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In an effort to reduce its dependency on mining, (since independence at 1966) the successive governments of Botswana (GoB) have continued to foster national development by diversifying the country’s economy, with agribusiness development strategies at the forefront of discussions. Over decades, a significant number of policies on agri-support have been developed towards this mission. Nevertheless, the performance of the sector continues to decline considerably. Despite its potential to promote and develop small-scale farmers, literature on agri-support programmes has indicated that without scrutiny and continuous evaluation of the programmes in place, the strategy can be another way of which governments lose money. This study examines the Botswana Young Farmers Fund programme that finances aspiring young farmers to start up or expand their agri projects. More particularly, the study investigates how this model in the context of young farmers, impacts and contribute to the development of the agricultural sector in Botswana. The study identified challenges and opportunities of the YFF programme. The major challenge which is also applicable to the general sector, identified by the case study suggests that the agricultural environment in Botswana is fragile, therefore seeks relevant agribusiness development strategies that are tailor-made for specific challenges faced by the sector.

Agricultural economists have devoted considerable attention to the financial stress situation of agricultural producers. Many studies have been conducted in various regions of the U.S. in an attempt to better understand the causes of the problem. The costs associated with farm financial stress imply corresponding benefits to be realized by its reduction. Benefits of studying and resolving farm financial stress reach beyond the farms and ranches to many related sectors such as rural communities, agribusinesses, and lending institutions. The specific hypothesis tested in this thesis is as follows: some but not all farms and ranches which have undergone serious financial stress in the early part of the 1980's in Oregon can be assisted in withstanding fluctuations in economic conditions by adopting specific strategies which promote financial stability and profitability. One of the specific objectives of this thesis was to evaluate the level of financial stress for two different agricultural production units in Oregon under differing leverage positions, and macroeconomic conditions. The production units selected for study were a cattle ranch and a wheat farm, based on their relative importance to Oregon. This first objective was satisfied through analysis of a baseline scenario, which was essentially a continuation of current conditions. Debt levels and growth rates were then altered to reflect the desired study conditions. Changing and considering three leverage ratios (20%, 40%, and 70%) and three sets of macroeconomic conditions (baseline, pessimistic, and optimistic) allowed studying of nine alternative situations to the base firm type or a total of 18 alternatives. Analysis of these different alternative production units was accomplished through a deterministic computer-based simulation model. The model simulates the financial structure and performance of a farm business over a transition period of four years with emphasis placed on the financial transactions of the firm. These transactions include purchases and sales of farm assets, financing terms, debt management, cash flows, tax obligations, consumption levels, and growth rates. The computer-based model made necessary calculations of cash flows and changes in financial statements to derive the ratios used for financial analysis over the planning horizon of four years beyond the present input case and is deterministic in the sense that all essential variables are entered by the researcher. Output from this model includes a set of coordinated financial statements for the firm over the planning horizon: a balance sheet, an income statement, statements for changes in net worth, flow of funds statement, and a fund availability report. The model also calculates profitability, liquidity, and solvency ratios used in financial ratio analysis which are provided on a summary sheet. These statements and reports are provided on an annual basis; thus, financial information is provided on yearly changes in financial position over the four year horizon. Another objective of this thesis was to evaluate various policy and management strategies designed to reduce financial stress. This objective was achieved by analysis of various scenarios designed to reduce stress simultaneously with the baseline case, which served for comparison. The specific scenarios considered were: 35% reduction of debt, 35% reduction of interest rates, two year deferral of debt, sales of 35% of total assets with no lease back, sales of 35% of total assets with lease back arrangements, and an infusion of equity capital equal to 35% of total debt. Results from this analysis were intended to show what, if any, courses of action could be pursued by agricultural firm managers and policy makers to reduce farm financial stress. The best test of the ability of these scenarios to reduce financial stress occurred in application to the high leverage wheat farm situations, as these were the cases with the most financial stress. Appropriate programs could be adopted to strengthen the financial position of the farm; in the case of low liquidity, asset sales-lease back; in cases of low solvency, equity infusions; and in circumstances where profitability needs to be enhanced, interest reductions would be the best choice. The results also seemed to suggested that public programs can maintain current levels of financial performance for producers under financial stress but do little to improve those positions. / Graduation date: 1988

The level of future agricultural production in Central Arizona depends upon the availability of land and water, the cost of water, and opportunities to grow crops yielding high returns per acre-foot of water. Suitable land is abundantly available but groundwater appurtenant to these lands is becoming increasingly costly. Opportunities to grow high-value crops are subject to the vagaries of commodity markets and government programs. This study estimates the direction and magnitude of expected agricultural adjustments in response to a declining land and water base, increasing water costs, and intra-county transfer of cotton allotments. The study region, encompassing all areas of Maricopa County relying solely or primarily upon groundwater for irrigation, is divided into two water resource areas. Area A has low-cost, poor quality water and only cotton for a high-value crop. Area B has highcost, good quality water and cotton, vegetables, and citrus for highvalue crops. Nine representative farm models are developed characterizing the structure of the agricultural sector of the economy in these two areas. Data for ten crops grown by these nine farm size groups are incorporated into linear programming models to make projections for 18 water situations distinguished on the basis of source, availability, and cost of water. Projections are made for the period 1967 to 2015. Projected adjustments show over 20 percent declines in land and water use and a 13 percent decline in net revenues over variable costs of production for the study region by 2015. These declines occur due to a loss of 68,000 acres of land to urban uses, and the abandonment of lowvalue crops made unprofitable by rising water costs. Declines in resource use and incomes are mitigated by a 10,000 acre increase in cotton production due to transfers of allotments from an adjacent region experiencing greater losses of land and water to urban uses. Projections by water resource area and water situation show 7 and 13 percent decreases in land and water use and a 7 percent increase in net revenues over variable costs for Area A. This divergent movement of resource use and revenues occurs because a 64 percent increase in cotton acreage offsets substantial reductions in sorghum and safflower acreages. Area B projections show approximately a 30 percent reduction in land and water use and a 23 percent reduction in net revenues over variable production costs. These reductions occur because all resources lost to urban uses come from this area and large acreages of low-value crops go out of production due to rising water costs. Only small acreages of short staple cotton allotments are transferred to Area B farms because Area A farmers can afford to pay more for surplus allotments. Area B experiences a net loss of cotton acreage because long staple allotments are transferred to Area A ferns when water costs make this variety of cotton unprofitable in Area B water situations. Projections by water situation within the two water resource areas vary from increases in resource use and net incomes to large decreases. The agricultural sector of Maricopa County expands until 1960, then enters a stage of decline, accelerated by large losses of land and water resources to urban uses in one irrigation district with adequate supplies of low-cost water. A comprehensive land use plan with zoning restrictions preventing urbanization of low-cost water areas would help maintain agricultural resource use and incomes at levels higher than will otherwise occur. Such a plan would also help maintain the quality of Che urban environment in Maricopa County.

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