The study critically analyzes the implication of various agricultural development policies on urban unemployment and income distribution. More specifically it focuses on the evaluation of agricultural policies at the macro-economic Level in the Nigerian economy. A system science and simulation approach is used to build and test a ten sector macro-economic model of the Nigerian economy to investigate the problem. The model simulates consumption, investment, employment and production endogenously. Validation of the model shows that it is capable of describing the major trends in the Nigerian economy for recent history. By interacting with a detailed agricultural sector model, the macro-model enables evaluation of agricultural policies in the context of the total economy after taking account of the important interactions between the agricultural and nonagricultural economies. In particular the model enables some measures of income distribution and employment to be included as targets of economic development planning together with the conventional target of growth. The model predicts that if current agricultural policies are continued, urban unemployment and income disparities will become increasingly more serious in Nigeria. Furthermore, the income differential between agriculture and nonagriculture is predicted to widen leading to a continuing increase in the rate of labor migration out of agriculture. The evaluation of two sets of agricultural policies, export crop modernization and food crop modernization, leads to a serious questioning of the present emphasis among development economists on agricultural development as a means of steadying the flow of rural-urban migration and reducing urban unemployment and rural-urban income inequities. Because of the considerable multiplier effects of increased agricultural incomes on nonagricultural incomes, both agricultural policies produced a wider differential between agricultural and nonagricultural incomes stimulating further labor migration out of agriculture. This effect was particularly acute in the case of the food modernization policy where the terms of trade turned against agriculture. Nevertheless both sets of policies and particularly the export modernization policy improved the disparity in self-employed earnings and wage earnings and produced a steady rise in nonagricultural self-employed earnings which, under current policies, were predicted to stagnate because of rising urban unemployment. Other policies to restrain wages and increase government employment demonstrated the considerable trade-off between various groups of the population arising out of the complexity of interactions between the agricultural and nonagricultural sectors. The macroeconomic simulation model is suggested as a useful approach to development planning where there is need to consider interactions between sectors and trade-offs between targets of development. / Graduation date: 1972

This thesis attempts to analyze the military government's role in solving the country's agricultural problems. This analysis is essential because it was during the military's stay in power that Nigeria's potential as a selfsufficient and food exporting nation declined. Materials collected to analyze the above problems reveal that the military government's lack of adequate personnel to supervise and implement decisions taken on agriculture, unplanned schemes, and unresearched projects were partly responsible for the government's inability to solve Nigeria's agricultural problems. While it may be necessary to blame the military government for not being able to completely solve the country's numerous agricultural problems, the presence of global political and economic decisions seriously hampered measures taken by the military government.

Thesis (MDF)--Stellenbosch University, 2011. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Agricultural financing has a wide and deep history in Nigeria, owing to the fact that the Nigerian economy has huge potentials for growth especially from its agriculture sector which is the second largest contributor to GDP. Since the establishment of the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme over 30 years ago, the total sum of 647,351 loans amounting to over N34 billion have been disbursed to farmers as at 2009. The result from this study shows that the guarantee scheme has been effective in providing agricultural financing as well as stimulating agricultural production in Nigeria. More specifically, the study found that, out of the five variables used in the models to determine agricultural performance, the credit finance provided under the ACGS and foreign exchange rates was found to be statistically significant to agricultural output. The credit provided under the ACGS has a significant effect on aggregate output; it was also found that the crop and the fishery subsectors are significantly affected by the credit finance provided under the ACGS, due to their short gestation period. However, the livestock and forestry subsectors do not have an immediate significant relationship with the credit finance due to their long gestation period; rather, they have a significant relationship with the depreciation of foreign exchange rates. A major policy implication from the study is that the government should continue to promote and support the operations of the ACGS to encourage farmers to invest their best efforts in agricultural production in Nigeria for food production and for enhanced agricultural export.