La thèse porte sur la conception et l'analyse mathématique de méthodes de Monte Carlo fiables et précises pour l'estimation de la (très petite) probabilité qu'un processus de Markov atteigne une région critique de l'espace d'état avant un instant final déterministe. L'idée sous-jacente aux méthodes de branchement multi-niveaux étudiées ici est de mettre en place une suite emboitée de régions intermédiaires de plus en plus critiques, de telle sorte qu'atteindre une région intermédiaire donnée sachant que la région intermédiaire précédente a déjà été atteinte, n'est pas si rare. En pratique, les trajectoires sont propagées, sélectionnées et répliquées dès que la région intermédiaire suivante est atteinte, et il est facile d'estimer avec précision la probabilité de transition entre deux régions intermédiaires successives. Le biais dû à la discrétisation temporelle des trajectoires du processus de Markov est corrigé en utilisant des régions intermédiaires perturbées, comme proposé par Gobet et Menozzi. Une version adaptative consiste à définir automatiquement les régions intermédiaires, à l’aide de quantiles empiriques. Néanmoins, une fois que le seuil a été fixé, il est souvent difficile voire impossible de se rappeler où (dans quel état) et quand (à quel instant) les trajectoires ont dépassé ce seuil pour la première fois, le cas échéant. La contribution de la thèse consiste à utiliser une première population de trajectoires pilotes pour définir le prochain seuil, à utiliser une deuxième population de trajectoires pour estimer la probabilité de dépassement du seuil ainsi fixé, et à itérer ces deux étapes (définition du prochain seuil, et évaluation de la probabilité de transition) jusqu'à ce que la région critique soit finalement atteinte. La convergence de cet algorithme adaptatif à deux étapes est analysée dans le cadre asymptotique d'un grand nombre de trajectoires. Idéalement, les régions intermédiaires doivent êtres définies en terme des variables spatiale et temporelle conjointement (par exemple, comme l'ensemble des états et des temps pour lesquels une fonction scalaire de l’état dépasse un niveau intermédiaire dépendant du temps). Le point de vue alternatif proposé dans la thèse est de conserver des régions intermédiaires simples, définies en terme de la variable spatiale seulement, et de faire en sorte que les trajectoires qui dépassent un seuil précocement sont davantage répliquées que les trajectoires qui dépassent ce même seuil plus tardivement. L'algorithme résultant combine les points de vue de l'échantillonnage pondéré et du branchement multi-niveaux. Sa performance est évaluée dans le cadre asymptotique d'un grand nombre de trajectoires, et en particulier un théorème central limite est obtenu pour l'erreur d'approximation relative. / The thesis deals with the design and mathematical analysis of reliable and accurate Monte Carlo methods in order to estimate the (very small) probability that a Markov process reaches a critical region of the state space before a deterministic final time. The underlying idea behind the multilevel splitting methods studied here is to design an embedded sequence of intermediate more and more critical regions, in such a way that reaching an intermediate region, given that the previous intermediate region has already been reached, is not so rare. In practice, trajectories are propagated, selected and replicated as soon as the next intermediate region is reached, and it is easy to accurately estimate the transition probability between two successive intermediate regions. The bias due to time discretization of the Markov process trajectories is corrected using perturbed intermediate regions as proposed by Gobet and Menozzi. An adaptive version would consist in the automatic design of the intermediate regions, using empirical quantiles. However, it is often difficult if not impossible to remember where (in which state) and when (at which time instant) did each successful trajectory reach the empirically defined intermediate region. The contribution of the thesis consists in using a first population of pilot trajectories to define the next threshold, in using a second population of trajectories to estimate the probability of exceeding this empirically defined threshold, and in iterating these two steps (definition of the next threshold, and evaluation of the transition probability) until the critical region is reached. The convergence of this adaptive two-step algorithm is studied in the asymptotic framework of a large number of trajectories. Ideally, the intermediate regions should be defined in terms of the spatial and temporal variables jointly (for example, as the set of states and times for which a scalar function of the state exceeds a time-dependent threshold). The alternate point of view proposed in the thesis is to keep intermediate regions as simple as possible, defined in terms of the spatial variable only, and to make sure that trajectories that manage to exceed a threshold at an early time instant are more replicated than trajectories that exceed the same threshold at a later time instant. The resulting algorithm combines importance sampling and multilevel splitting. Its preformance is evaluated in the asymptotic framework of a large number of trajectories, and in particular a central limit theorem is obtained for the relative approximation error.

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<p dir="ltr">The absence or limited availability of operational statistics at general aviation airports restricts airport managers and operators from assessing comprehensive operational data. The traditional manual compilation of operational statistics is labor-intensive and lacks the depth and accuracy to depict a holistic picture of a general aviation airport’s operations. This research developed a reliable and efficient approach to address the problem by providing a comprehensive and versatile flight status identification framework. </p><p dir="ltr">Leveraging the BlueSky flight simulation module, the research can generate a synthetic flight database to emulate real-world general aviation aircraft’s flight scenarios. Two neural network architectures, namely, an RNN-GAN network and a refined Seq2Seq network, were explored to examine their capability to reconstruct flight trajectories. The Seq2Seq network, which demonstrated better performance, was further employed to estimate the simulated aircraft’s different metrics, such as internal mechanical metrics and flight phase. Additionally, this research undertook an array of diverse tailored evaluation techniques to assess the efficacy of flight status predictions and conducted comparative analyses between various configurations. </p><p dir="ltr">Furthermore, the research concluded by discussing the future development of the framework, emphasizing its potential for generalization across various flight data applications and scenarios. The enhanced methodology for collecting operational statistics and the analysis tool will enable airport managers and regulators to better receive a comprehensive view of the airport’s operations, facilitating airport planning and development.</p>

The Civil Air Navigation Services Organisation, the International Federation of Air Traffic Control Associations, the International Air Transport Association and the Civil Air Navigation Services Organisation agree that professionals in the Air Navigation Services Provider Sector require successful organisational leadership to facilitate and manage transformation within the highly regulated Air Navigation Services Provider Sector. Detailed organisational leadership requirements and associated leadership training and development needs are, however, not specified by the Civil Air Navigation Services Organisation. An opportunity therefore existed to investigate leadership traits and behaviours within a specific context. This research project is contextualised within a safety-conscious, highly regulated and technology-driven industry (the South African Aviation Industry), a safety-critical sector (Air Navigation Services) and specifically the Air Traffic and Navigation Services Company. It was found that little academic research has been done to address the role of followers in the leadership process and to determine what followers expect and require from their leaders. The research problem statement, in response to this research necessity, is: “How can follower experiences and expectations of leadership behaviours in a safety-critical commercial environment be collected, analysed, understood, structured and utilised to aid leadership development?” An ethnographic research case study approach allowed the researcher to investigate the multifarious phenomena that constitute the current views (experiences and expectations) held by followers with regard to leadership behaviour qualities. A mixed methods approach was followed. Data collection was facilitated by means of individual interviews, focus group interviews, field notes and a structured questionnaire. Qualitative data were inductively analysed to identify the recurring patterns and common themes and quantitative data were deductively analysed to assess the nature of existing conditions and relevance. Data and method triangulation was implemented to determine whether multiple sources of data agreed, and to obtain better, cross-checked insights. Findings from this research study provided academic, industry, process and methodology insights into views held by followers regarding leadership and followership constructs. Definitions and perspectives held and reported by followers regarding leaders and leadership, characteristics of preferred and undesired leadership styles, relational and emotional bonds between followers and their leaders acknowledged the presence, value and influence of follower mental models. In this case followers contextualised leadership roles and responsibilities and suggested a transformational leadership style as a desired state. Findings also emphasised a need to appreciate the importance of the social exchange and social contingency theories of leadership in order to create a better understanding of leadership by emphasising the importance of context when studying leaders and leadership from a follower perspective. Obtained follower insights resulted in a structured leadership training and development needs analysis process framed within the specific context. Future research efforts in this regard may be aimed at determining the necessity to educate followers to critically appreciate and evaluate leadership performance and creating a better understanding of how followers’ mental models internally represent complex, dynamic systems and how these representations change over time. / Business Management / DBL

Cette thèse traite de la gestion du trafic aérien et plus précisément, de l’optimisation globale des plans de vol déposés par les compagnies aériennes sous contrainte du respect de la capacité de l’espace aérien. Une composante importante de ce travail concerne la gestion de l’incertitude entourant les trajectoires des aéronefs. Dans la première partie du travail, nous identifions les principales causes d’incertitude au niveau de la prédiction de trajectoires. Celle-ci est la composante essentielle à l’automatisation des systèmes de gestion du trafic aérien. Nous étudions donc le problème du réglage automatique et en-ligne des paramètres de la prédiction de trajectoires au cours de la phase de montée avec l’algorithme d’optimisation CMA-ES. La principale conclusion, corroborée par d’autres travaux de la littérature, implique que la prédiction de trajectoires des centres de contrôle n’est pas suffisamment précise aujourd’hui pour supporter l’automatisation complète des tâches critiques. Ainsi, un système d’optimisation centralisé de la gestion du traficaérien doit prendre en compte le facteur humain et l’incertitude de façon générale.Par conséquent, la seconde partie traite du développement des modèles et des algorithmes dans une perspective globale. De plus, nous décrivons un modèle stochastique qui capture les incertitudes sur les temps de passage sur des balises de survol pour chaque trajectoire. Ceci nous permet d’inférer l’incertitude engendrée sur l’occupation des secteurs de contrôle par les aéronefs à tout moment.Dans la troisième partie, nous formulons une variante du problème classique du Air Traffic Flow and Capacity Management au cours de la phase tactique. L’intérêt est de renforcer les échanges d’information entre le gestionnaire du réseau et les contrôleurs aériens. Nous définissons donc un problème d’optimisation dont l’objectif est de minimiser conjointement les coûts de retard et de congestion tout en respectant les contraintes de séquencement au cours des phases de décollage et d’attérissage. Pour combattre le nombre de dimensions élevé de ce problème, nous choisissons un algorithme évolutionnaire multiobjectif avec une représentation indirecte du problème en se basant sur des ordonnanceurs gloutons. Enfin, nous étudions les performances et la robustesse de cette approche en utilisant le modèle stochastique défini précédemment. Ce travail est validé à l’aide de problèmes réels obtenus du Central Flow Management Unit en Europe, que l’on a aussi densifiés artificiellement. / In this thesis, we investigate the issue of optimizing the aircraft operators' demand with the airspace capacity by taking into account uncertainty in air traffic management. In the first part of the work, we identify the main causes of uncertainty of the trajectory prediction (TP), the core component underlying automation in ATM systems. We study the problem of online parameter-tuning of the TP during the climbing phase with the optimization algorithm CMA-ES. The main conclusion, corroborated by other works in the literature, is that ground TP is not sufficiently accurate nowadays to support fully automated safety-critical applications. Hence, with the current data sharing limitations, any centralized optimization system in Air Traffic Control should consider the human-in-the-loop factor, as well as other uncertainties. Consequently, in the second part of the thesis, we develop models and algorithms from a network global perspective and we describe a generic uncertainty model that captures flight trajectories uncertainties and infer their impact on the occupancy count of the Air Traffic Control sectors. This usual indicator quantifies coarsely the complexity managed by air traffic controllers in terms of number of flights. In the third part of the thesis, we formulate a variant of the Air Traffic Flow and Capacity Management problem in the tactical phase for bridging the gap between the network manager and air traffic controllers. The optimization problem consists in minimizing jointly the cost of delays and the cost of congestion while meeting sequencing constraints. In order to cope with the high dimensionality of the problem, evolutionary multi-objective optimization algorithms are used with an indirect representation and some greedy schedulers to optimize flight plans. An additional uncertainty model is added on top of the network model, allowing us to study the performances and the robustness of the proposed optimization algorithm when facing noisy context. We validate our approach on real-world and artificially densified instances obtained from the Central Flow Management Unit in Europe.

The Civil Air Navigation Services Organisation, the International Federation of Air Traffic Control Associations, the International Air Transport Association and the Civil Air Navigation Services Organisation agree that professionals in the Air Navigation Services Provider Sector require successful organisational leadership to facilitate and manage transformation within the highly regulated Air Navigation Services Provider Sector. Detailed organisational leadership requirements and associated leadership training and development needs are, however, not specified by the Civil Air Navigation Services Organisation. An opportunity therefore existed to investigate leadership traits and behaviours within a specific context. This research project is contextualised within a safety-conscious, highly regulated and technology-driven industry (the South African Aviation Industry), a safety-critical sector (Air Navigation Services) and specifically the Air Traffic and Navigation Services Company. It was found that little academic research has been done to address the role of followers in the leadership process and to determine what followers expect and require from their leaders. The research problem statement, in response to this research necessity, is: “How can follower experiences and expectations of leadership behaviours in a safety-critical commercial environment be collected, analysed, understood, structured and utilised to aid leadership development?” An ethnographic research case study approach allowed the researcher to investigate the multifarious phenomena that constitute the current views (experiences and expectations) held by followers with regard to leadership behaviour qualities. A mixed methods approach was followed. Data collection was facilitated by means of individual interviews, focus group interviews, field notes and a structured questionnaire. Qualitative data were inductively analysed to identify the recurring patterns and common themes and quantitative data were deductively analysed to assess the nature of existing conditions and relevance. Data and method triangulation was implemented to determine whether multiple sources of data agreed, and to obtain better, cross-checked insights. Findings from this research study provided academic, industry, process and methodology insights into views held by followers regarding leadership and followership constructs. Definitions and perspectives held and reported by followers regarding leaders and leadership, characteristics of preferred and undesired leadership styles, relational and emotional bonds between followers and their leaders acknowledged the presence, value and influence of follower mental models. In this case followers contextualised leadership roles and responsibilities and suggested a transformational leadership style as a desired state. Findings also emphasised a need to appreciate the importance of the social exchange and social contingency theories of leadership in order to create a better understanding of leadership by emphasising the importance of context when studying leaders and leadership from a follower perspective. Obtained follower insights resulted in a structured leadership training and development needs analysis process framed within the specific context. Future research efforts in this regard may be aimed at determining the necessity to educate followers to critically appreciate and evaluate leadership performance and creating a better understanding of how followers’ mental models internally represent complex, dynamic systems and how these representations change over time. / Business Management / DBL

À travers une approche de contrôle optimal, cette thèse de doctorat propose une étude des modèles et des techniques de résolution dans un domaine d'application propre à la gestion du trafic aérien. Motivés par la croissance des flux aériens d'une part, et les développements en théorie du contrôle optimal d'autre part, ces travaux portent sur l'analyse du problème d'évitement de conflits aériens. Cette étude permet le développement de nouvelles approches et algorithmes en vue d'aider les contrôleurs aériens dans leur tâche. Ainsi, dans le cadre du trafic aérien, afin de préserver des distances minimales de sécurité entre avions, lors de phases tactiques et de configurations des vols en-route, notre recherche se focalise sur une stratégie de régulation subliminale en vitesse (variations très réduites), pour assurer la séparation entre avions, tout en conservant leur trajectoire prédéfinie. D'une part, une méthode de résolution numérique en contrôle optimal telle que la méthode directe de tir, impliquant une discrétisation totale ou partielle du problème, transforme le problème initial en un problème en programmation non linéaire de grande taille. Ce type de méthodes peut générer des problèmes d'optimisation de grande taille numériquement di_ciles à résoudre. Suivant le nombre de variables du problème, elles peuvent s'avérer trop coûteuse en termes de temps de calculs. D'autre part, les contraintes sur les variables d'états du problème posent des di_cultés de résolution, par exemple, pour l'usage d'une méthode numérique indirecte de tir. Développant les informations caractéristiques des conflits aériens, une détection et une détermination a priori des zones de conflits permettent alors la décomposition du problème présenté de contrôle optimal en sous-problèmes plus aisés à résoudre. La résolution des sous-problèmes hors-zones peut être abordée en utilisant les conditions du principe du maximum de Pontryagin, ce qui en permet une résolution e_cace. Une combinaison de méthodes numériques directes de tir et d'application des conditions du principe du maximum de Pontryagin est proposée, et des implémentations numériques valident ce type d'approche. / The purpose of this doctoral thesis is to study models and solution techniques based on optimal control approaches to address air tra_c management problems. Motivated by the growth of air tra_c volume, and by the advances in optimal control theory, this research works focus on analysing aircraft conflict avoidance problem. This study allows development of new approaches and algorithms to help air tra_c controllers. In the framework of air tra_c management, to ensure the minimum safety distances between aircraft, in tactical phases and en-route flight configurations, this thesis focusses on a subliminal velocity regulation strategy to perform the separation, while preserving the aircraft predefined trajectories. A numerical optimal control solution approach as the direct shooting method, wherein involves a total or partial discretization of the problem, transforms the initial problem into a large scale nonlinear programming problem. This kind of methods could generate large-size optimization problems which are numerically di_cult to solve. Depending on the number of variables which involved, this approaches could be too expensive in terms of computation time. Moreover, the state-variables constraints of the problem lead to numerical di_culties, e.g., considering the indirect numerical shooting method. Tailored on aircraft conflict avoidance problems, a detection and a determination of a priori conflict zones allow the decomposition of the optimal control problem into sub-problems, easier to solve than the original one. Solving the o_-zones sub-problems can be addressed using the Pontryagin maximum principle, which allows in this case directly the solution. A combination of direct numerical shooting method and application of conditions of Pontryagin's maximum principle is proposed, and numerical experiments validate this approach.

The study is conducted to determine practical modelling and simulation techniques to perform dynamic stability and performance analysis on a 3 Degrees of freedom aircraft model using a Modelica-based commercial tool called Modelon Impact. This study is based on a conceptual aircraft model where in-depth details about the aircraft configuration are unknown and the aim is to determine a suitable model that can capture the longitudinal dynamics and aerodynamic constraints of the aircraft during the conceptual design phase. Requirements include short execution time, easy model development, and minimal data requirements. Therefore, this thesis aims at developing plant and control architectures in  Modelon Impact which can be utilized for the rapid development of aircraft concepts with adequate fidelity in a longitudinal mission-based tracking environment. In a conceptual aircraft design environment, to identify a suitable methodology that mitigates the limitations of a traditional feedback controller, two methodologies are considered for comparison: Sequential DAE resolution (SDR) and Dynamic inversion (DI) control which is discussed from an object-oriented aircraft model. The advantages and shortcomings of each of the models discussed above are compared by conducting several experiments in increasing order of longitudinal mission complexity, and the most appropriate model among the two for a conceptual stage of aircraft design development is ascertained. The two methodologies discussed are compared for their level of complexity, code structure, readability, and ease of usability.