This master‘s thesis deals with risk management of business entity. Risk management is divided into the identification, analysis and measure of risks. All of these areas are described in the theoretical part. In the analytical part of the work these areas are identified by using risk analysis environment that includes a SLEPTE analysis, the Porter's model and the 7S Model. These risks are evaluated with scoring method. Most important causes and consequences are figured in Ishikawa diagrams. In the last part of the thesis are suggested measures to eliminate these risks. The diversification was propossed for one of the measure. The contribution of this work lies in treatment of risk management of business entity and demostrate the benefits of its implementation in the company.

Brayton cycles are open gas turbine cycles extensively used in aviation and industrial applications because of their advantageous volume and weight characteristics. With the bulk of waste exhaust heat and engine emissions associated, there is need to be mindful of environmentally-friendliness of these engine cycles, not compromising good technical performance, and economic viability. This research considers assessment of power plants in helicopters, and aeroderivative industrial gas turbines combined-heat-and-power (ADIGT-CHP) in the petrochemical industry. Thus, it consists of two parts: part A focuses on performance analysis of helicopter gas turbines, while part B entails technoeconomic and environmental risk assessment of ADIGT-CHP in the petrochemical industry. The investigation encompasses comparative assessment of simple cycle (SC) and advanced gas turbine cycle options including the component behaviours and the environmental and economic analysis of the systems. The advanced cycles considered include: recuperated (RC), intercooled (IC), intercooled-recuperated (ICR), and low pressure compressor zero-staged (LPC-ZS), cycles. The helicopter engines are analysed and subsequently converted to small-scale ADIGT engines. Also, modelling combined-heat-and-power (CHP) performances of small-scale (SS), and large-scale (LS) ADIGT engines is implemented. More importantly, a large part of the research is devoted to developing a techno-economic model for assessing, predicting, and comparing viability of simple and advanced cycle ADIGT-CHP in the petrochemical industry in terms of net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), and simple payback period (SPBP). The techno-economic performances of the ADIGT-CHP cycles are measured against the conventional case of grid power plus on-site boiler. Besides, risk and sensitivity of NPV with respect to uncertain changes in grid electricity cost, gas fuel cost, emission cost, and electricity export tariff, are investigated. Two case studies underlie the development of the techno-economic model. One case study demonstrates the application of the model for large-scale (LS) ADIGT-CHP, and the other for small-scale (SS) ADIGT-CHP, all in the petrochemical industry. By so doing, techno-economic and environmental risk analysis framework (a multi-disciplinary preliminary design assessment tool comprising performance, emissions, economic, and risk modules) is adapted to ADIGT-CHP in the petrochemical industry, which is the aim of this research. The investigation and results led to the conclusions that advanced cycle helicopter and ADIGT engines exhibit higher thermal efficiencies than simple cycle, and that savings exist in operational costs of ADIGT-CHP above the conventional case. Thus, for both SS ADIGT-CHP, and LS ADIGT-CHP cases, all ADIGT-CHP cycles are profitable than the conventional case. For LS ADIGT- CHP category, the IC ADIGT-CHP is the most profitable, whereas for SS ADIGT-CHP category, the RC ADIGT-CHP is the most profitable. The contribution to knowledge of this research is the development of a technoeconomic model for assessing, predicting, and comparing viability of simple and advanced cycle ADIGT-CHP in the petrochemical industry in terms of NPV, SPBP, and IRR over the conventional case of grid power plus on-site boiler. A second contribution is the derivation of simple and advanced cycle small-scale ADIGT and ADIGT-CHP from helicopter engines. Cont/D.

The occurrence of two recent major earthquakes, 17 August 1999 Mw = 7.4 Izmit and 12 November 1999 Mw = 7.1 D&uuml / zce, in Turkey prompted seismologists and geologists to conduct studies to predict magnitude and location of a potential earthquake that can cause substantial damage in Istanbul. Many scenarios are available about the extent and size of the earthquake. Moreover, studies have recommended rough estimates of risk areas throughout the city to trigger responsible authorities to take precautions to reduce the casualties and loss for the earthquake expected. Most of these studies, however, adopt available procedure by modifying them for the building stock peculiar to Turkey. The assumptions and modifications made are too crude and thus are believed to introduce significant deviations from the actual case. To minimize these errors and use specific damage functions and capacity curves that reflect the practice in Turkey, a study was undertaken to predict damage pattern and distribution in Istanbul for a scenario earthquake proposed by Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). The success of these studies strongly depends on the quality and validity of building inventory and site property data. Building damage functions and capacity curves developed from the studies conducted in Middle East Technical University are used. A number of proper attenuation relations are employed. The study focuses mainly on developing a software to carry out all computations and present results. The results of this study reveal a more reliable picture of the physical seismic damage distribution expected in Istanbul.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-26T13:27:56Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 texto completo.pdf: 7394685 bytes, checksum: aeb9cc781b146a08d4feda43890a0a42 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-03-22 / This work presents the characterization and analysis of a database from an approximately seven-year period monitoring of a domestic wastewater treatment system composed of a UASB reactor, a submerged aerated biofilter (field scale) and a polishing pond series (pilot scale). The following variables were analyzed: BOD, COD, TSS, N-NH3, total phosphorus, pH, E. coli, total coliforms and helminth eggs. The hypothesis of data randomness, stationarity and homogeneity were, in general, confirmed, but data independency was not. Most data presented skewness and kurtosis different from those of the normal distribution. The results suggest that the lognormal function well represented the data distribution of BOD, COD, TSS, N-NH3, pH, E. coli, and total coliforms. Total phosphorus was better characterized by normal distribution, but the helminth eggs data could not be successfully adjusted to a distribution model. The lognormal distribution was applied to pH, pH, N-NH3 and E. coli data as input variables in stochastic modeling (Latin hypercube sampling at 10,000 iterations) for the prediction of pond effluent quality. It is suggested that a three-pond series is sufficient to achieve an effluent discharge standard of 20 mg N-NH3 L-1, as well as the WHO guidelines, in terms of E.coli/100 mL, for the irrigation of leaf and root crops. The use of the lognormal distribution for the pond influent values of E. coli, N-NH3 and pH resulted in effluent concentrations significantly different from those when using the uniform distribution. Sensitivity analysis indicated that E.coli concentration and the bacterial decay coefficient were the input variables which had the greatest effect on the output estimates of E.coli concentrations. The estimates of N-NH3 in pond effluents were influenced mostly by the N-NH3 influent and the pH values. These results point out that pH values and the bacterial decay coefficient should be carefully chosen for an adequate pond design. Finally, in order to estimate infection risks arising from the consumption of wastewater-irrigated salad crops, the pond s bacterial effluent quality database was used in quantitative microbial risk analysis models. Using stochastic modeling (Latin hypercube sampling at 10,000 iterations), assuming the E.coli data according to a lognormal distribution, and a tolerable risk level of 10-3 pppy, effluent quality standards of 103 and 104 E. coli/100 mL were shown to be adequate for the irrigation of, respectively, high- and low-growing crops. The use of the lognormal distribution, instead of a uniform distribution, resulted in risk estimates significantly lower. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the pathogens: E.coli ratio and pathogen reduction between crops harvesting and consumption were the input variables which had the greatest effect on risk estimates, pointing out the need for reliable information on these variables. / Este trabalho apresenta a caracterização e análise de um banco de dados relativo à cerca de sete anos de monitoramento de um sistema de tratamento de esgotos sanitários constituído por reator UASB, biofiltro submerso aerado (escala real) e lagoas de polimento (escala piloto). Foram analisadas as seguintes variáveis: DBO, DQO, SST, N-NH3, fósforo total, pH, E. coli, coliformes totais e ovos de helmintos. As hipóteses de aleatoriedade, estacionariedade e homogeneidade dos dados foram, em geral, confirmadas, mas a de independência não. A maioria das séries de dados apresentou características de assimetria e curtose distintas da distribuição normal. Os resultados sugerem que a função lognormal melhor descreveu a distribuição dos dados de E. coli, coliformes totais, pH, SST, DBO, DQO e N-NH3. Os dados de fósforo apresentaram melhor adesão ao modelo normal de distribuição. Quanto aos ovos de helmintos, não foi possível identificar uma distribuição que mais nitidamente se ajustasse ao banco de dados disponível. A distribuição lognormal foi aplicada às variáveis de entrada pH, N-NH3 e E. coli em modelagem estocástica (amostragem aleatória por hipercubos latinos com 10.000 iterações) para a previsão da qualidade de efluentes de lagoas de polimento. Constatou-se que uma série de três lagoas parece ser suficiente para o alcance de 20 mg N-NH3 L-1 como padrão de lançamento de efluentes, e para atender as recomendações da OMS em termos de concentração de E. coli para a irrigação de hortaliças folhosas, raízes e tubérculos. O uso da distribuição lognormal para as concentrações afluentes de E. coli, N-NH3 e valores de pH resultaram em concentrações efluentes de E. coli e N-NH3 significativamente diferentes em relação ao uso da distribuição uniforme. Testes de análise de sensibilidade indicaram que as variáveis de maior impacto na previsão da concentração efluente de E. coli foram a concentração afluente de E. coli e o coeficiente de decaimento bacteriano. Na previsão da concentração efluente de N-NH3, as variáveis de maior impacto foram a concentração afluente de N-NH3 e os valores de pH. Os resultados indicam, portanto, a necessidade de escolha criteriosa de valores de pH e de coeficiente de decaimento bacteriano para o dimensionamento de lagoas de polimento. Por fim, para efeito de estimativa de riscos de infecção decorrentes da irrigação de hortaliças ingeridas cruas, os dados de qualidade bacteriológica dos efluentes das lagoas foram utilizados em modelos de avaliação quantitativa de risco microbiológico. Por meio de modelagem estocástica (amostragem aleatória por hipercubos latinos com 10.000 iterações), assumindo distribuição lognormal para a concentração de E. coli e nível de risco tolerável de 10-3 pppa, padrões de 103 e 104 E. coli/100 mL pareceram adequados para a irrigação de hortaliças que se desenvolvem, respectivamente, rentes ao e distantes do solo. O uso da distribuição lognormal resultou em estimativas de risco significativamente menores que o uso da distribuição uniforme. Análise de sensibilidade apontou a relação patógenos/E. coli e a redução de patógenos entre a colheita e o consumo como as variáveis de maior impacto na estimativa de risco, indicando a necessidade de dados confiáveis desses parâmetros.

The goal of this work was to create a system of risk assessment in companies engaged in software development. In the aplication part three already finished projects were analysed. The result of the analysis was compiling a register of risks. The register contains a list of 14 causes and 4 key risk factors. At first these risk factors and their causes undergo an expert evaluation by a subjective probability of their occurrence and intensity of their potential impact in the system. Experts' estimation of the impact strength is complemented by a sensitivity analysis. Subsequently, the system evaluates the risks and compiles a list of key risks. System also provides with arrangements that serve to reduce the extent of key risks. In conclusion, the system carries out a quantitative analysis in the form of a probability tree.

The theoretical part of the thesis analyzes several selected methodologies and best-practices related to information technology risks management, with focus on documents and guidance developed by ISACA. It builds a set of ideas and basic requirements for effective model of an IT risk register. Strong emphasis is placed on mapping CobiT 4.1 based Risk IT to COBIT 5. The practical part describes implementation of an exploratory web-based IT risk register in Python programming language utilizing the Django framework and employs concepts from the analysis.

This diploma thesis is concentrated on problematics of the project risk management of the construction of the new building in the company Huhtamaki Czech Republic, Plc. The first part of the thesis is focused on the theoretical knowledge of project management, the analysis of risks, the planning of the project and the strategic situational analysis. The second part analyses the current state of the company. Analysis of external and internal environments and their summary to SWOT were formulated where strength and weakness, opportunities and threats. The last part contains the suggestion of the own solution for the realization of the project. There were identified risks which were evaluated through the method RIPRAN. There were suggested precaution to the chosen risks which reduce the probability and the impact of the risk on the project.

This thesis deals with the safety of engraving machine. The main contribution of this thesis is the detailed implementation of the risk assessment according to valid standards. Further detailed design of measures to meet all safety requirements. Part of this thesis is familiarity with the machine and its current state and the procedure of risk analysis. Another part is the risk assessment. Conclusion of this thesis includes the documentation and ES certificate of conformity.

This master's thesis is focused on risk management in a particular project in a particular company. The opening part deals with the principles of customers loyalty programs, formulation of goals and the main methods used for risk identification and quantification. The analytical part contains an analysis of the current state of the company and a description of the project and its plans. The main task of this work is to identify and evaluate project risks and propose measures to reduce their severity. The output of the thesis is an inventory of the risks of the project, which can serve also for other projects of the company.

This Master`s thesis deals with a strategic and economic analysis of a chosen company. The aim is to identify the risks that arising from the used analyzes and to propose measures for the selected affectable risks to reduce them. The theoretical part contains needed information to understand the issue. In the nex part are realized the macroeconomic analysis and microeconomic analysis. From these analysis are arising the risks which are analyze by RIPRAN method. The measures are proposed that are helping to reduce the affectable risks are contained in the last part of this thesis.