Leopards (Panthera pardus) are the most common large predators, free roaming outside of protected areas across most of South Africa. Leopard persistence is attributed to their tolerance of rugged terrain that is subject to less development pressure, as well as their cryptic behaviour. Nevertheless, existing leopard populations are threatened indirectly by ongoing transformation of natural habitat and directly through hunting and conflict with livestock farmers. Together these threats may further isolate leopards to fragmented areas of core natural habitat. I studied leopard habitat preferences, population density, diet and the attitudes of landowners towards leopards in the Little Karoo, Western Cape, South Africa, an area of mixed land-use that contains elements of three overlapping global biodiversity hotspots. Data were gathered between 2010 and 2012 using camera traps set up at 141 sites over an area of ~3100km², GPS tracking collars fitted to three male leopards, scat samples (n=76), interviews with landowners (n=53) analysed in combination with geographical information system (GIS) layers. My results reveal that leopards preferred rugged, mountainous terrain of intermediate elevation, avoiding low-lying, open areas where human disturbance was generally greater. Despite relatively un-fragmented habitat within my study area, the leopard population density (0.75 leopards/100km²) was one of the lowest yet recorded in South Africa. This may reflect low prey densities in mountain refuges in addition to historical human persecution in the area. Currently local landowners are more tolerant of leopards than other wildlife species with incidents of conflict involving leopards being rare relative to black-backed jackals (Canis mesomelas), baboons (Papio hamadryas), caracals (Caracal caracal) and porcupine (Hystrix africaeaustralis). Although current levels of conflict between leopards and stock farmers are low, leopards do depredate livestock, which constitute 10-15% of their diet. Improved livestock husbandry measures and co-operation between conservation authorities and farmers are necessary to mitigate such conflict and balance economic security with biodiversity conservation in the region. Leopards are the only remaining top predators throughout much of the Little Karoo and the Western Cape and as such are predicted to play a critical role in ecosystem structure and the survival of other species. Current high levels of connectivity between areas of suitable leopard habitat bode well for the conservation status of leopards within this region and future conservation efforts need to ensure that narrow corridors linking such habitat are preserved. The potential for leopards to serve as both an umbrella and a flagship species for biodiversity conservation suggests that long term monitoring of this population would be a conservation priority for the Little Karoo.

Integrated data analyses are becoming increasingly popular in studies of wild animal populations where two or more separate sources of data contain information about common parameters. Here we develop an integrated population model using abundance and demographic data from a study of common guillemots (Uria aalge) on the Isle of May, southeast Scotland. A state-space model for the count data is supplemented by three demographic time series (productivity and two mark-recapture-recovery (MRR)), enabling the estimation of prebreeder emigration rate - a parameter for which there is no direct observational data, and which is unidentifiable in the separate analysis of MRR data. A Bayesian approach using MCMC provides a flexible and powerful analysis framework. This model is extended to provide predictions of future population trajectories. Adopting random effects models for the survival and productivity parameters, we implement the MCMC algorithm to obtain a posterior sample of the underlying process means and variances (and population sizes) within the study period. Given this sample, we predict future demographic parameters, which in turn allows us to predict future population sizes and obtain the corresponding posterior distribution. Under the assumption that recent, unfavourable conditions persist in the future, we obtain a posterior probability of 70% that there is a population decline of >25% over a 10-year period. Lastly, using MRR data we test for spatial, temporal and age-related correlations in guillemot survival among three widely separated Scottish colonies that have varying overlap in nonbreeding distribution. We show that survival is highly correlated over time for colonies/age classes sharing wintering areas, and essentially uncorrelated for those with separate wintering areas. These results strongly suggest that one or more aspects of winter environment are responsible for spatiotemporal variation in survival of British guillemots, and provide insight into the factors driving multi-population dynamics of the species.

Thesis (MTech (Nature Conservation))--Cape Peninsula University of Technology, 2015. / The klipspringer (Oreotragus oreotragus subsp. oreotragus) population became extinct on the Cape Peninsula in 1930. Being re-introduced into Table Mountain National Park (TMNP) in 1999 it became one of the species of special conservation concern to monitor in the Park. Most klipspringer territories are known by Park management but the distribution of all potentially suitable habitats for this species in the Park is not known. The main aim of this study is to produce a distribution range map that is representative of all potentially suitable habitats for the klipspringer within TMNP, through the use of a species distribution modelling tool. Since only presence data were available for this study, a popular presence-only modelling tool namely maximum entropy (MaxEnt) was used. The use of MaxEnt in species distribution modelling has become popular as it has proven to provide robust predictions of a species’ geographic distribution. Klipspringer occurrence data and five environmental variables namely altitude, slope, aspect, vegetation, and distance to urban edge were used as model input. Occurrence data were sourced through existing databases and employing a stratified random sampling technique of dividing the Park into different habitat subtypes to survey the Park for more klipspringer occurrences. These habitat subtypes consisted of a variety of vegetation communities or vegetation types and altitudinal and slope ranges available in the Park. Grid size for all the raster layers used was 10x10 m. Spatial filtering of one point per 100 m² grid was used to eliminate clumping of points. Six models were run at different regularisation multiplier (RM) values namely 0.25, 0.5, default (1), 2, 4 and 7. To assist in better understanding of the spatial extent of the occurrence data and the areas inhabited by the klipspringer, home range analyses were carried out. This was done through kernel density estimation in the Geospatial Modelling Environment (GME). All six bandwidth parameters in GME namely smoothed cross validation (SCV), biased cross-validation (BCV), a second BCV algorithm, plug-in estimator, least squares cross validation and the likelihood cross validation (CVh) were tested. The smoothed cross validation and likelihood cross validation bandwidth algorithms provided the best visual output of klipspringer home ranges and territories. Home range sizes from the SCV output ranged from about 3 – 11 ha across the study area, and home range size for the CVh output ranged from 0.6 – 2.5 ha. The output from the CVh algorithm was interpreted as territories rather than home ranges, as it is based on a univariate kernel unlike, the SCV algorithm that produces rotated bivariate kernels. iv The default regularisation multiplier of 1 provided the best probability distribution output, whilst values lower than the default tended to underestimate the prediction and those values higher than the default were tending towards overestimations. Response curves for the default RM also gave the most ecologically meaningful responses of the klipspringer to each environmental variable. Model evaluation in the form of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC) showed that all models performed well. Therefore, the choice of the “best” model was based on the ability to provide ecological interpretation, on the shape of the response curve and the probability distribution maps. Consequently, the default RM model was considered the best, with an AUC score of 0.903. Altitude and vegetation contributed the most to suitable habitat and therefore indicates that klipspringer in the Park do prefer high altitudinal areas with the right vegetation to feed on. Suitable altitudinal ranges are from 400 m.a.s.l. and higher and ericaceous fynbos is the most preferred vegetation community. Slope, aspect and distance to urban edge played a less important role in suitable klipspringer habitat. The probability map and an additional binary map produced at the 10 percentile training logistic presence threshold showed that suitable habitat for the klipspringer occurs in all three sections of the Park in different proportions. These maps can be used by Park management to prioritise conservation efforts and future re-introductions. / National Research Foundation

The cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) has experienced a drastic decline in numbers over the last 20 years globally and is currently listed as vulnerable by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). In South Africa, there are only an estimated 763 free-ranging cheetahs and conflict with humans is arguably the most significant reason for this low number. The aim of my study was to determine the population size and demographic characteristics of the cheetah population within the Timbavati Private Nature Reserve (TPNR), South Africa, and to contribute to a better understanding of cheetah space use and habitat selection. The research was conducted on TPNR between November 2009 and June 2011 and I used a photographic survey to assess cheetah population size and demographic characteristics. Location data was obtained by collaring two adult male cheetahs with GPS/GSM collars and ad hoc sightings data from across the reserve for an adult female with cubs and three adolescent females. A relatively high minimum population density of 4.46 cheetahs/100km² was estimated, signifying a relatively healthy cheetah population. The sex ratio data indicated a higher male to female ratio and an average litter size of three cubs. The relatively high cub survival rate and density is promising in terms of the status of species within the area, as the data denote the success and potential persistence of the species. Cheetah home ranges varied between 20.97km² for the female with cubs and 659.65km² for the younger collared male. Season did not appear to be a determining factor in terms of home range sizes for the three social groups within the TPNR. However, the males did show a slight increase in their home range sizes during the dry season when resources where presumably more widespread. My results indicate that the cheetah is an adaptable species, flexible in behaviour and able to tolerate a variety of habitat types. Such knowledge is fundamental for planning and implementing the effective management and conservation of cheetahs in South Africa.

African wild dog Lycaon pictus populations are declining and the species is listed as Endangered by the IUCN. The Kruger National Park (KNP) is home to the only viable population of wild dogs in South Africa, but census results reveal consistently low numbers since the late 1990s. Wild dogs display wide-ranging behaviour and it is possible that the species might frequently use unprotected lands adjacent to the KNP. However, very little is known about wild dog movements beyond the boundaries of the KNP, and whether or not adjacent land owners are tolerant of the species. Significantly, threats along the boundaries may have negative consequences for the KNP population. This research investigated the dispersal habits of wild dogs beyond the western and southern boundaries of the KNP, and gathered information on human tolerance, and anthropogenic threats in an area of mixed land use. The land west of the KNP presented the best prospect for wild dog range expansion. The wild dog packs operating outside the KNP had smaller home ranges and less home range overlap than the packs operating within the KNP. In addition, my data suggested that the development of conservancies and the formation of ecotourism-based land use practices would be beneficial for wild dog conservation. Failed wild dog dispersals due to snaring and human persecution could threaten the genetic stability and persistence of the KNP population. Therefore, raising awareness and an understanding of the plight of wild dogs is important for improving land owner perception and tolerance outside of protected areas. The rapidly increasing human population continues to infringe on protected lands and fragment landscapes, thus cooperation from individual land owners is vital for the conservation of free-ranging large carnivores.

Human-wildlife conflict frequently involves carnivores, mainly because of their large home ranges and dietary requirements. As such, carnivores tend to be the first animals to be lost in human-dominated ecosystems. This is significant because the removal of carnivores can alter the functionality of ecosystems. However, the conservation of carnivores depends as much on the socio-political and socio-economic landscapes as it does on the ecological one. The consolidation of vast, un-fragmented conservation areas in Africa and the world is unlikely. Thus, unravelling the factors (both biological and sociological) responsible for and influencing human-predator conflict is critical for carnivore conservation. The Winterberg district in the Eastern Cape, South Africa has been a sheep (Ovis aries) farming stronghold for nearly 200 years. Consequently, conflict between farmers and predators is commonplace and depredation of livestock by caracals (Caracai caracal) remains a perennial problem. However, the extent of this human-predator conflict (including a reliable assessment of caracal density) has not been quantified. This study used camera trapping to estimate the density of caracals (a nonindividually recognisable species) in the Winterberg and a structured questionnaire to gauge the general attitudes of the farmers of the region. Caracal density was estimated to be 0.20 caracals/km². This estimate equates to a population of approximately 54 caracals across the entire district. Therefore, caracals do not appear to occur at high densities in the Winterberg. However, the survey of the residents of the Winterberg Conservancy revealed that predators were rated as the greatest problem faced by farmers in the area. Although not significant, it also showed that the size of a respondent's property and sheep mortality due to caracals had the greatest probability of affecting attitudes towards predators. The farmers lost less than 10% of their stock to caracal depredation on an annual basis. Therefore, the general perception that predators were the most important factor in stock loss in the area does not appear to be fully supported by my data. The Winterberg is a male-dominated, multigenerational society and it is likely this propagates certain perceptions towards predators which are a reflection of long-held family traditions and beliefs. Such situations can result in reactions which are disproportionate to the actual scale of the problem. However, my study was limited to a sub-set of the landowners in the Winterberg. Thus, more intensive assessments of caracal space use and community attitudes towards predators are recommended.

The conservation of leopards in the Eastern Cape Province requires a holistic approach that considers both predator-human interactions as well as the biology of the carnivore. Numerous studies have been conducted on leopards within protected areas; however more information regarding the species is needed outside these areas to facilitate effective management of predators. The spatial ecology of the leopard (Panthera pardus) were studied in the Baviaanskloof and GAENP in the Eastern Cape. The Baviaanskloof is an extensive area of mountainous terrain (approximately 2665km²) which has a mosaic of land uses, and leopards move from conservation areas to farmland where they come into contact and conflict with farmers. This study examined the spatial ecology of leopards living on farmlands adjacent to protected land. The space utilization and activity patterns of six leopards were analysed. These animals were caught and released on farmlands in the Baviaanskloof (n=4) or translocated (n=2) when not possible to release on site. The animals were caught by means of fall-door, walk-in traps and fitted with Vectronic GPS collars that facilitated the collection of high quality GPS fixes from each animal. Data was collected using VHF and UHF telemetry to download data. An understanding of spatial requirements in areas with different land use, and the extent of overlap of space use with other leopards allow, for the first time in the region, the calculation of possible maximum population size. Analysis of range size was carried out using two methods: minimum convex polygon, and Kernel Utilization Distribution. Finally, a key predictor of space use is prey availability. I assessed the prey base using a grid of camera traps. The studied leopards revealed large range utilization with minimal overlap. The activity patterns suggest there is no preference between diurnal and nocturnal activity patterns and the population density was estimated between 0.3 - 1.3 leopards per 100km². Large home range sizes and low population densities suggest that leopards require large areas of suitable habitat, and that conservation efforts need to be extended beyond protected areas to ensure the long-term viability of leopard populations in such areas.