The international community routinely implements embargoes in an effort to restrict the flow of small arms and light weapons into politically unstable regions. The effectiveness of sanctions fall into question when reports indicate that weapons continue to pour into embargoed territories. Using stochastic actor-based modeling, the current study investigates how shipment patterns change over time, and how trade patterns evolve in the presence of endogenous influences, such as embargoes, while controlling for corruption levels and national wealth (e.g., gross domestic product). The analysis here indicated that embargoes did have an effect in diverting illicit weapons trade through indirect ties. This was seen highest during the embargo implementation period and post embargo implementation period. The results stand to improve our understanding of this complex illegal global market and the role national control of corruption and gross domestic product play in the enforceability of these sanctions. In the final analysis what was discovered was that embargoes do effect change in the illegal arms trade network. This effect is seen in the form of indirect ties to end user countries. This suggests that improvements to policies and regulation on transshipment points need to be highly scrutinized.

yes / The 1990s witnessed a change in the way wars were fought as the amount of available weaponry increased and the types of actors engaged in warfare multiplied. The opening up of the international arms trade, in particular with new buyers and more channels of supply, has raised concerns about who purchases weapons and for what use. Afeature of this changing nature of conflict has been the continuing, if not growing, presence of mercenaries and the emergence of private companies contracted to provide military and security services. These range from logistical support and training to advice and procurement of arms and on-the-ground intervention. This briefing highlights how the activities of mercenaries and private military and security companies can contribute to small arms proliferation and misuse and examines steps the international community can take at the UN Small Arms Conference and elsewhere to effectively combat mercenarism and regulate the activities of private military and security companies. The role played by these companies relates not only to provisions contained in the contracts they sign with their clients to provide large amounts of weaponry, but also how the military and security services and training that they provide contributes to the demand for weapons in the regions where they operate. There are a number of ways in which mercenaries and private military and security companies are involved in small arms proliferation. These include: l Arms brokering and transportation activities l Violations of UN arms embargoes l Impact on human rights and humanitarian law l Driving demand for small arms Various measures already exist to ban the activities of mercenaries and regulate some of the activities of private military and security companies either through national legislation or international agreements. However, there is concern these efforts are neither comprehensive nor accepted widely enough to effectively control the activities of mercenaries and private military and security companies.

yes / Arms embargoes are one of the principal tools of states in seeking to prevent, limit and bring an end to armed conflict and human rights abuses. Despite the frequency with which arms embargoes have been imposed, there are significant problems with their implementation. Pressure is therefore growing for the international governmental community to act in order to ensure that the political commitment embodied by the imposition of arms embargoes is matched by the commitment to ensure their rigorous enforcement and to achieve enhanced human security on the ground. Increasing the effectiveness of arms embargoes is a specific aim of the United Nations Programme of Action for Preventing and Combating the Illicit Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons in All Its Aspects1 which specifically calls upon states "To take appropriate measures, including all legal or administrative means, against any activity that violates a United Nations Security Council arms embargo in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations".2 Accordingly, within the context of the implementation of the UN PoA, the overall aim of this paper is to explore ways in which the international community can act in order to strengthen the impact of arms embargoes and enhance human security. It will begin by examining the purposes, processes and effects relating to arms embargoes, with particular attention to those agreed at international (UN) level, and by highlighting issues of concern in each regard. An overview of the main issues and challenges facing implementation of arms embargoes will include the elaboration of three case-study examples showing the impact of UN arms embargoes on the availability of arms and on human security and a further five that illustrate the dilemmas faced by states in seeking to implement arms embargoes. Priority areas for attention in any international effort to strengthen the effectiveness of arms embargoes will be followed by more extensive proposals for enhancing international embargo regimes within the context of implementing the UN PoA. Whilst it is recognised that the UN PoA contains measures that relate only to the illicit trade in small arms and light weapons (SALW), if implemented fully, many of these would serve to strengthen the international apparatus of control, information exchange and provision of assistance relating to arms proliferation and misuse as a whole. In turn, this would greatly enhance the implementation of UN arms embargoes. Therefore, as well as providing an opportunity for reviewing progress on implementing the PoA, the first Biennial Meeting of States in July 2003 is clearly a major opportunity for states to address a number of the pressing challenges facing states in the implementation of UN embargoes.