In this dissertation I explain the relationship among inflation volatility, rational bubbles, and asset prices. In addition, I investigate the transmission of asset prices and volatility among countries. In the second chapter, which deals with the relationship between inflation volatility and asset prices, my empirical analysis shows that real stock returns tend to co-vary negatively with expected inflation during periods of stable inflation, but co-vary positively with expected inflation during periods of volatile inflation for 16 countries. To investigate the relationship between rational bubbles and asset prices in the third chapter, I formulate an information error model which allows one to derive the measure of non-fundamentals in stock prices in a straightforward manner. This study provides a new method by specifying rational bubble measures that follow the Weibull distribution. As a result, my empirical analysis is the first step in applying survival analysis to bubbles, and it reveals preliminary evidence that there is the increasing bursting rate at a decreasing rate for extraneous or instrinsic bubbles in the U.S. stock market. In the fourth chapter, which deals with the transmission of asset prices and volatility, I investigate how the 1997 crisis has changed the Korean market by focusing on price and volatility spillovers from the U.S., Chinese, and Japanese markets. I have used daily stock prices from January 3, 1995 to July 31, 2007 and employed an EGARCH model. New information on stock prices originated in the U.S. market was more transmitted to the Korean market for all periods. The price spillover effect from the Japanese market to the Korean market became stronger from the crisis period. The influence of U.S. and Japanese innovations on market volatility increased after the crisis period. However, the magnitude of spillover effects from the Chinese market to the Korean market remained small and stable between the prior- and post-crisis periods and the volatility spillover effect remained stable for all periods. Asymmetry in the spillover effects on market volatility was pronounced in the Korean market after the financial crisis.

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In this paper, we study the asset pricing implication of imprecise knowledge about rare events. Modeling rare events as jumps in the aggregate endowment, we explicitly solve the equilibrium asset prices in a pure-exchange economy with a representative agent who is averse not only to risk but also to model uncertainty with respect to rare events. Our results show that there are three components in the equity premium: the diffusive-risk premium, the jump-risk premium, and the "rare event premium." While the first two premia are generated by risk aversion, the last one is driven exclusively by uncertainty aversion. To dis-entangle the "rare event premium" from the standard risk-based premia, we examine the equilibrium prices of options with varying degree of moneyness. We consider models with different levels of uncertainty aversion -- including the one with zero uncertainty aversion, and calibrate all models to the same level of equity premium. Although observationally equivalent with respect to the equity market, these models provide distinctly different predictions on the option market. Without incorporating uncertainty aversion, the standard model cannot explain the extent of the premia implicit in options, particularly the prevalent "smirk" patterns documented in the index options market. In contrast, the models incorporating uncertainty aversion can generate significant premia for at-the-money option prices, as well as pronounced "smirk" patterns for options with different degrees of moneyness.

Thesis advisor: Peter Ireland / Upon reaching the effective end of conventional monetary policy, the Zero-Lower Bound, the Federal Reserve Board began to utilize a non-conventional expansionary monetary policy involving Large Scale Asset Purchases. Under this policy, large quantities of agency and federal debt is purchased using the reserves of the Federal Reserve Bank’s balance sheet. This policy is frequently referred to as Quantitative Easing or, more simply, QE. This paper considers the effects and sustainability of the Federal Open Market Committee’s use of Large Scale Asset Purchases on the prices and yields of financial assets within the U.S. Financial Markets. Our analysis presents evidence that while QE was initially effective in lowering the yields of agency and federal debt, the downward pressure on yields was not sustainable over time. Additionally, we find that the effects of QE spilled-over into additional asset classes within the financial markets including corporate fixed-income and equities. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2018. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Departmental Honors. / Discipline: Economics.

Of the many analytical methods collectively referred to as Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is the most familiar to today’s generation of students of finance. The popularity of the CAPM arises from its success in expressing a powerful theoretical insight in a simple, usable form. The primary use of the CAPM is to determine minimum required rates of return from investment in risky assets. The variable in the CAPM is called ‘beta’, a statistical measure of risk which has become familiar to all finance professionals. Over the past decade, beta has become the most widely recognised and applied measure of risk in the investment community. The model has been extensively tested in the developed capital markets, mainly in the United States of America. But the model has not been extensively tested in other developed and developing countries, often due to the size of the capital market and the lack of the data in these countries. This study attempts to fill this vacuum and tries to update the earlier tests done on the Stock Exchange of Singapore. On addition, a review of the validity of the CAPM over time, as proxied by the stationarity of the beta, is performed. Also, tests regarding heteroskedasticity and its implications have been undertaken. / Master of Commerce (Hons)

abstract: This paper studies the dynamic relationship between the pricing of Alternative Asset Management products and macroeconomic variables. It does so using an index of Alternative Asset Management products, employing a VAR framework and examining the implied impulse response functions. I find a bivariate causal relation between the expected rate of return on Alternative Asset Management products and the growth rate of industrial value added. I also find that the CPI, the yield on one-year national debt, the weighted average yield of bond repurchases in interbank bond market, and the one-year loan interest rate can influence the expected return rate of Alternative Asset Management products. An analysis of the variance decomposition suggests that macroeconomic variables have a different impacts on forecast errors variance. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Business Administration 2016

This dissertation examines the role of asset prices to act as a transmission and amplification mechanism. Specifically, it looks at how changes in asset prices can help transmit and amplify technology shocks through the credit channel by changing the supply of loanable funds, or changing the supply of deposits, or both. Using a modified version of the Kiyotaki-Moore credit cycles model with concave utility and decreasing returns to scale production function, the dissertation illustrates that asset prices can as a credible amplification and transmission mechanism. Using concave utility and decreasing returns to scale production function allows the incorporation risk aversion into the credit cycles model. The model can help explain the gap between observed magnitude of shocks, and the corresponding changes in economic activity. The behavior of a heterogeneous agent economy in response to a technology shock is simulated using computer programs. The simulations show that a one percent technology shock translates into a more than four percent change in capital held by the constrained agents by moving capital from one agent type to the other. This moves the economy away from a first-best equilibrium. If the technology shock is positive there is an increased demand of capital from the more productive agents, and thus a more than proportionate increase in output. If the technology shock is negative, the opposite path is followed, and economic activity falls more than proportionately. There are credit constraints built into the model. Agents' access to credit is determined by the value of collateral on oer, which in turn depends on asset prices. Technology shocks change demand for assets, their prices, their value as collateral, and hence agents' access to credit. Further, since prices are forward looking, a shock in one period propagates through time. These simulations show that the effects of the shock can be felt up to 13 periods after it has hit. An event analysis with housing price data from 18 countries spanning a period of more than four decades is also performed. It shows that there is strong co-movement of housing prices and economic activity. In particular, larger changes in housing prices have been accompanied by qualitatively similar changes in economic activity. The period leading up to the peak of a real estate cycle is accompanied by a more than proportionate increase in private sector lending, and once the peak has been crested, there is a more than proportionate fall in nominal private sector lending. This evidence is in sync with the earlier observation that changes in asset prices influence agents' access to credit and contribute to the persistence of the effects of the shock far into the future. Further, the preferred measure of economic health, the rate of inflation, sees no measurable change in periods leading up to a real estate peak, and beyond. This throws up the need for some other measure of economic health that is better able to capture the events in asset markets. Policy makers have been paying more attention to this channel in the aftermath of the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the United States. There have been multiples changes in regulatory policy across the world, and specific steps are being taken to dampen exuberance in the real estate market. Only time can tell if these measures turn out to be effective, but at least a step has been taken towards realizing that housing market can lead to a wider economic and banking crisis. / Economics

A dynamic IS-LM model including stocks and houses as additional assets will be analyzed in this paper. Providing also housing services, a major consumption item for most households, houses create an additional link between the monetary and the real sector of the economy. The adjustment path of output, house prices and stock prices after exogenous policy shocks will be derived within a rational expectation setup. This will show how different reaction patterns of asset prices are related to different elasticities of housing services demand. These general analytical results are contrasted with relevant empirical work, particularly Lastrapes [2002], leading to the identification of plausible elasticity ranges. The particular results for those shed new light upon the ongoing discussion about demand effects from real estate wealth and about determinants of house price fluctuations. (author's abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

The objective of the thesis is to find out whether expansionary monetary policy creates an upward pressure on asset prices and can thus create asset price bubbles, or more precisely significantly contribute to their creation. In doing so, we test the significance and the sign of coefficient on monetary policy stance indicator as a determinant of real estate and stock prices on 19 OECD countries quarterly panel data since 1980. Further we assess periods of real estate and stock price bubbles and periods of expansionary monetary policy and examine their relationship. The asset price bubbles are assessed on the basis of relevant price indices developments without examining the underlying fundamentals. Based on our results it appears that expansionary monetary policy has a positive effect on real estate prices and can thus contribute to formation of real estate bubbles. The effect on stock prices is ambiguous and mostly statistically insignificant. By examining the relationship between assessed asset price bubbles and periods of expansionary monetary policy we found out that monetary expansion is neither sufficient nor necessary condition for formation of asset price bubbles but also that there is a relatively strong relationship between these events. JEL Classification C23, E43, E52, E58, G12, N10, N20...