O trabalho busca responder: i) se a exigência de margem é capaz de afetar os preços dos ativos em períodos de iliquidez; ii) como as margens são fixadas. A primeira pergunta está relacionada ao modelo Margem CAPM de Gârleanu & Pedersen (2011), que indicam a existência da relação entre a exigência de margem associada a problemas de funding do mercado com os preços dos ativos. A segunda pergunta está relacionada ao trabalho de Brunnermeier & Pedersen (2009) que descrevem o fenômeno Espiral de Liquidez relacionado ao comportamento pró-cíclico das margens, que seriam função da volatilidade dos preços dos ativos. Utilizaram-se dados do mercado acionário brasileiro e exigências de margem divulgadas pela BM&F Bovespa para o período de jan/2008 até dez/2012 para responder tais perguntas. A evidência empírica encontrada no trabalho aponta que a exigência de margem afeta os preços dos ativos em momentos ilíquidos, como descrito pelo modelo Margem CAPM. Porém, tal fenômeno é restrito apenas a ações de empresas pequenas. De acordo com o exercício realizado, o portfólio Long Short de empresas pequenas, onde a estratégia é long em ativos de empresas com alta exigência de margem e short em ativos de baixa exigência de margem, apresentou um retorno médio ajustado ao risco de 1.33% ao mês. Enquanto para empresas médias e grandes o retorno ajustado ao risco da estratégia Long Short é estatisticamente igual a zero. Além disso, encontrou-se em um exercício em painel que o aumento de 1 p.p. da exigência de margem gera uma queda aproximada de 0.13 p.p. sobre o excesso de retorno dos ativos de empresas pequenas quando o mercado está ilíquido. Por outro lado, o efeito é positivo da ordem de 0.10 p.p. quando o mercado está líquido. Novamente, os efeitos são nulos para empresas médias e grandes. Quanto à fixação das margens, o trabalho apresenta evidência que estas são explicadas pelo comportamento da volatilidade e da assimetria da distribuição dos retornos dos ativos. Em um exercício em painel, observou-se que: o aumento de 1 p.p. na volatilidade dos ativos gera um aumento aproximado de 0.017 p.p. na variação da exigência de margem; e uma queda de 0.1 unidade no coeficiente de assimetria dos retornos dos ativos causa um aumento de 0.015 p.p. na variação das margens. Destaca-se que tais resultados são inéditos na literatura de precificação de ativos. / The work seeks to answer: i) if the margin requirement is able to affect asset prices in periods of illiquidity, ii) how the margins are fixed. The first question is related to the Margin CAPM model of Gârleanu & Pedersen (2011), which indicate the existence of the relationship between the margin requirements associate to funding problems with the asset prices. The second question is related to the work of Brunnermeier & Pedersen (2009) that describe the Spiral Liquidity phenomenon related to a pro-cyclical behavior of margins, which would be a function of the volatility of asset prices. We used data from Brazilian stock markets and margin requirements disclosure by BM&F Bovespa for the period that goes on jan/2008 to dec/2012 to answer these questions. The empirical evidence found in the work indicates that the margin requirement affects the assets prices in illiquid times, as described by the Margin CAPM. However, this phenomenon is restricted to small caps stocks. According to the exercise performed, the Long Short portfolio of small caps, where the strategy is long in high margin requirement assets and short in low margin requirement assets, presented an average risk-adjusted return of 1.33% per month. While for medium and large companies the risk-adjusted return of Long Short strategy is statistically equal to zero. Furthermore, it was found in an exercise in panel that an increase of 1 p.p. in the margin requirement generates an approximate 0.13 p.p. fall on the excess return of assets of small caps when the market is illiquid. On the other hand, the positive effect is 0.10 p.p. when the market is liquid. Again, the effects are null for medium and large companies. Regarding the margins, the paper presents evidence that these are related to the volatility and skewness of the distribution of the assets returns. In an exercise in panel, it was observed that: an increase of 1 p.p. in asset volatility generates an approximate 0.017 p.p. increase in variation of margin requirements; and a decrease of 0.1 unit in the skewness of asset returns causes an increase in margins variations of 0.015 p.p. It is noteworthy that these results are unprecedented in the asset pricing literature.

In Korea, an inflation targeting (IT) regime was adopted in the aftermath of the Korean currency crisis of 1997–1998. At that time, the Bank of Korea (BOK) shifted the instrument of monetary policy from monetary aggregates to interest rates. Recently, central bank policymakers have confronted more uncertainties than ever before when deciding their policy interest rates. In this monetary policy environment, it is worth exploring whether the BOK has kept a conservative posture in moving the Korean call rate target, the equivalent of the US Federal Funds rate target since the implementation of an interest rate-oriented monetary policy. Together with this, the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007–2009 provoked by the US sub-prime mortgage market recalls the following question: should central banks pre-emptively react to a sharp increase in asset prices? Historical episodes indicate that boom-bust cycles in asset prices, in particular, house prices, can be damaging to the economy. In Korea, house prices have been evolving under uncertainties, and in the process house-price bubbles have been formed. Therefore, in recent years, central bankers and academia in Korea have paid great attention to fluctuations in asset prices. In this context, the aims of this thesis are: (i) to set up theoretical and empirical models of monetary policy under uncertainty; (ii) to examine the effect of uncertainty on the operation of monetary policy since the adoption of interest rate-oriented policy; and (iii) to investigate whether gradual adjustment in policy rates can be explained by uncertainty in Korea. Another important aim is (iv) to examine whether house-price fluctuations be taken into account in formulating monetary policy. The main findings of this thesis are summarised as follows. Firstly, as in advanced countries, the four stylised facts regarding the policy interest rate path are found in Korea: infrequent changes in policy rates; successive changes in the same direction; asymmetric adjustments in terms of the size of interest-rate changes for continuation and reversal periods; and a long pause before reversals in policy rates. These patterns of policy rates (i.e., interest-rate smoothing) characterised the central bank‘s reaction to inflation and the output gap as being less aggressive than the optimising central bank behavior would predict (Chapter 3). Secondly, uncertainty may provide a rationale for a smoother path of the policy interest rate in Korea. In particular, since the introduction of the interest rate-oriented monetary policy, the actual call money rates have shown to be similar to the optimal rate path under parameter uncertainty. Gradual movements in the policy rates do not necessarily indicate that the central bank has an interest-rate smoothing incentive. Uncertainty about the dynamic structure of the economy, which is dubbed ‗parameter uncertainty‘, could account for a considerable portion of the observed gradual movements in policy interest rates (Chapter 4). Thirdly, it is found that the greater the output-gap uncertainty, the smaller the output-gap response coefficients in the optimal policy rules, and in a similar vein, the greater inflation uncertainty, the smaller the inflation response coefficients. The optimal policy rules derived by using data without errors showed the large size of the output-gap and inflation response coefficients. This finding confirms that data uncertainty can be one of sources explaining the reasons why monetary policymakers react less aggressively in setting their interest rate instrument (Chapter 5). Finally, we found that house prices conveyed some useful information on conditions such as possible financial instability and future inflation in Korea, and the house-price shock differed from other shocks to the macroeconomy in that it had persistent impacts on the economy, consequently provoking much larger economic volatility. Empirical simulations showed that the central bank could reduce its loss values in terms of economic volatility, resulting in promoting overall economic stability when it responds more directly to fluctuations in house prices. This finding provides the reason why the central bank should give more attention to house-price fluctuations when conducting monetary policy (Chapter 6).

O trabalho busca responder: i) se a exigência de margem é capaz de afetar os preços dos ativos em períodos de iliquidez; ii) como as margens são fixadas. A primeira pergunta está relacionada ao modelo Margem CAPM de Gârleanu & Pedersen (2011), que indicam a existência da relação entre a exigência de margem associada a problemas de funding do mercado com os preços dos ativos. A segunda pergunta está relacionada ao trabalho de Brunnermeier & Pedersen (2009) que descrevem o fenômeno Espiral de Liquidez relacionado ao comportamento pró-cíclico das margens, que seriam função da volatilidade dos preços dos ativos. Utilizaram-se dados do mercado acionário brasileiro e exigências de margem divulgadas pela BM&F Bovespa para o período de jan/2008 até dez/2012 para responder tais perguntas. A evidência empírica encontrada no trabalho aponta que a exigência de margem afeta os preços dos ativos em momentos ilíquidos, como descrito pelo modelo Margem CAPM. Porém, tal fenômeno é restrito apenas a ações de empresas pequenas. De acordo com o exercício realizado, o portfólio Long Short de empresas pequenas, onde a estratégia é long em ativos de empresas com alta exigência de margem e short em ativos de baixa exigência de margem, apresentou um retorno médio ajustado ao risco de 1.33% ao mês. Enquanto para empresas médias e grandes o retorno ajustado ao risco da estratégia Long Short é estatisticamente igual a zero. Além disso, encontrou-se em um exercício em painel que o aumento de 1 p.p. da exigência de margem gera uma queda aproximada de 0.13 p.p. sobre o excesso de retorno dos ativos de empresas pequenas quando o mercado está ilíquido. Por outro lado, o efeito é positivo da ordem de 0.10 p.p. quando o mercado está líquido. Novamente, os efeitos são nulos para empresas médias e grandes. Quanto à fixação das margens, o trabalho apresenta evidência que estas são explicadas pelo comportamento da volatilidade e da assimetria da distribuição dos retornos dos ativos. Em um exercício em painel, observou-se que: o aumento de 1 p.p. na volatilidade dos ativos gera um aumento aproximado de 0.017 p.p. na variação da exigência de margem; e uma queda de 0.1 unidade no coeficiente de assimetria dos retornos dos ativos causa um aumento de 0.015 p.p. na variação das margens. Destaca-se que tais resultados são inéditos na literatura de precificação de ativos. / The work seeks to answer: i) if the margin requirement is able to affect asset prices in periods of illiquidity, ii) how the margins are fixed. The first question is related to the Margin CAPM model of Gârleanu & Pedersen (2011), which indicate the existence of the relationship between the margin requirements associate to funding problems with the asset prices. The second question is related to the work of Brunnermeier & Pedersen (2009) that describe the Spiral Liquidity phenomenon related to a pro-cyclical behavior of margins, which would be a function of the volatility of asset prices. We used data from Brazilian stock markets and margin requirements disclosure by BM&F Bovespa for the period that goes on jan/2008 to dec/2012 to answer these questions. The empirical evidence found in the work indicates that the margin requirement affects the assets prices in illiquid times, as described by the Margin CAPM. However, this phenomenon is restricted to small caps stocks. According to the exercise performed, the Long Short portfolio of small caps, where the strategy is long in high margin requirement assets and short in low margin requirement assets, presented an average risk-adjusted return of 1.33% per month. While for medium and large companies the risk-adjusted return of Long Short strategy is statistically equal to zero. Furthermore, it was found in an exercise in panel that an increase of 1 p.p. in the margin requirement generates an approximate 0.13 p.p. fall on the excess return of assets of small caps when the market is illiquid. On the other hand, the positive effect is 0.10 p.p. when the market is liquid. Again, the effects are null for medium and large companies. Regarding the margins, the paper presents evidence that these are related to the volatility and skewness of the distribution of the assets returns. In an exercise in panel, it was observed that: an increase of 1 p.p. in asset volatility generates an approximate 0.017 p.p. increase in variation of margin requirements; and a decrease of 0.1 unit in the skewness of asset returns causes an increase in margins variations of 0.015 p.p. It is noteworthy that these results are unprecedented in the asset pricing literature.

在很多資產泡沫的案例中，我們發現貨幣供給與信用皆伴隨資產價格飆漲而增加；但其通貨膨脹問題卻不嚴重。這似乎與傳統貨幣理論之概念─高貨幣成長刺激通膨─有所抵觸。我們推論在資產價格飆升時，民眾會增加其持有之貨幣以待適當時機購買資產，此種融通金融商品的貨幣即為俗稱之「游資」。游資增加將吸收部份貨幣擴張，因而減少最終流入商品市場的貨幣，緩和通貨膨漲。本論文建立一個Cash-in-Advance模型，發現當經濟體之貸款利率遠高於存款利率，及人民預期未來經濟持續進步時，確實可能發生上述現象。 / While some bubble economies, in which asset prices rise, experience exaggerated money and credit expansion, they often face merely moderate inflationary problems. It is likely that the increased money supply does not fully enter the commodity market and result in hyper-inflation; some of that increase may become investors’ money that waits for future investment opportunities and finally goes into the equity market. By utilizing a cash-in-advance model with a banking system and heterogeneous household expectations, this paper demonstrates the existence of this special phenomenon under the necessary condition by which, the loan rate is significantly higher than the deposit rate, and what the public believes in requires a persistent economic growth.

[pt] Durante as últimas duas décadas, as economias do mundo têm sido caracterizadas por maior estabilidade na inflação e no produto. No entanto, aumentos na instabilidade financeira vêm preocupando os bancos centrais. Sendo assim, este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar empiricamente possíveis relações entre a política monetária brasileira e variações em preços de ativos, mais especificamente taxa de câmbio nominal e índice Bovespa. Os resultados encontrados para o período amostral de janeiro/2000 a janeiro/2006 sugerem que o modelo não-linear (TAR - threshold autoregressive) ajustase melhor aos dados brasileiros em comparação com o modelo linear e trazem indícios de que variações na taxa de câmbio nominal estão associadas a movimentos na taxa Selic em períodos mais conturbados da economia brasileira, os quais geram maior volatilidade no mercado financeiro. / [en] During the past two decades, world's economies have been characterized by stability on inflation and product levels. However, increases in financial instability are becoming a reason for concern to central banks. In this sense, the aim of this study is to analyze empirically possible relations between the Brazilian monetary policy and changes on asset prices, specifically the nominal exchange rate and the Bovespa index. The results for the sample between January, 2000 and January, 2006 suggest that the non-linear model, based on a Threshold Autoregressive model, fits better into Brazilian data than the linear model and find evidence that changes on nominal exchange rates and movements on Selic rate are associated during difficult times of the Brazilian economy, which are related to higher financial volatility.

The relations between monetary policies, asset prices, and economic growth are important and fundamental questions in macroeconomics. To address these issues, several empirical works have been conducted to investigate these relations. However, few of them have documented whether these relations differ across regimes. In this context, the general motivation of this thesis is to use dependent regime models to examine these relations for the Canadian case. Chapter one empirically analyzes the interest rate behaviour of the Canadian monetary authorities by taking into account the asymmetry in the loss function. We employ a switching regime framework using two estimation strategies: First, we follow Caner and Hansen (2004) Threshold approach. Under this procedure we estimate the threshold values, using the Taylor empirical rules. Second, we estimate the asymmetric policy reaction function following Favero and Rovelli’s (2003) approach. The results reveal that the monetary authorities showed asymmetric preferences and that its reaction function can be better modeled with a nonlinear model. The main contribution of this chapter is to successfully interpret the parameters associated with the Bank of Canada preferences, something that Rodriguez (2008) could not do. Chapter two tries to estimate the interest rate behaviour of the Canadian monetary authorities by expanding the arguments of the loss function for fluctuations in asset prices. Using the same methodology as in the first chapter, our findings suggest that the augmented nonlinear reaction function is a good fit for the data and gives new relevant insights into the influence of asset prices on Canadian monetary policy. These findings about the role of asset prices in the reaction function of the Bank of Canada provide relevant insights regarding the opportunities and limitations of incorporating financial indicators in monetary policy decision making. They also provide financial market participants, such as analysts, bankers and traders, with a better understanding of the impact of stock market index prices on Bank of Canada policy. Stock market stabilization plays a larger role in the interest rate decisions of the Bank of Canada than it is willing to admit. Chapter three provides new evidence on the relation between inflation, relative price variability and economic growth to a panel of Canadian provinces over the period 1981-2008. We use the Bick and Nautz (2008) modified version of Hansen’s (1999) Panel Threshold Model. The evidence strongly supports the view that the relationship between inflation and economic growth is nonlinear. Further investigation suggests that relative price variability is one of the important channels through which inflation affects economic performance in Canadian provinces. When taking into account the cross-section dependence, we find that the critical threshold value slightly changes. It is desirable to keep the inflation rate in a moderate inflation regime because it may be helpful for the achievement of sustainable economic growth. The results seem to indicate that inflation that is too high or too low may have detrimental effects on economic growth.

The relations between monetary policies, asset prices, and economic growth are important and fundamental questions in macroeconomics. To address these issues, several empirical works have been conducted to investigate these relations. However, few of them have documented whether these relations differ across regimes. In this context, the general motivation of this thesis is to use dependent regime models to examine these relations for the Canadian case. Chapter one empirically analyzes the interest rate behaviour of the Canadian monetary authorities by taking into account the asymmetry in the loss function. We employ a switching regime framework using two estimation strategies: First, we follow Caner and Hansen (2004) Threshold approach. Under this procedure we estimate the threshold values, using the Taylor empirical rules. Second, we estimate the asymmetric policy reaction function following Favero and Rovelli’s (2003) approach. The results reveal that the monetary authorities showed asymmetric preferences and that its reaction function can be better modeled with a nonlinear model. The main contribution of this chapter is to successfully interpret the parameters associated with the Bank of Canada preferences, something that Rodriguez (2008) could not do. Chapter two tries to estimate the interest rate behaviour of the Canadian monetary authorities by expanding the arguments of the loss function for fluctuations in asset prices. Using the same methodology as in the first chapter, our findings suggest that the augmented nonlinear reaction function is a good fit for the data and gives new relevant insights into the influence of asset prices on Canadian monetary policy. These findings about the role of asset prices in the reaction function of the Bank of Canada provide relevant insights regarding the opportunities and limitations of incorporating financial indicators in monetary policy decision making. They also provide financial market participants, such as analysts, bankers and traders, with a better understanding of the impact of stock market index prices on Bank of Canada policy. Stock market stabilization plays a larger role in the interest rate decisions of the Bank of Canada than it is willing to admit. Chapter three provides new evidence on the relation between inflation, relative price variability and economic growth to a panel of Canadian provinces over the period 1981-2008. We use the Bick and Nautz (2008) modified version of Hansen’s (1999) Panel Threshold Model. The evidence strongly supports the view that the relationship between inflation and economic growth is nonlinear. Further investigation suggests that relative price variability is one of the important channels through which inflation affects economic performance in Canadian provinces. When taking into account the cross-section dependence, we find that the critical threshold value slightly changes. It is desirable to keep the inflation rate in a moderate inflation regime because it may be helpful for the achievement of sustainable economic growth. The results seem to indicate that inflation that is too high or too low may have detrimental effects on economic growth.

The thesis focuses on estimating the effect of expansionary monetary policy concerning asset prices, specifically house and stock prices as they are of pri- mary importance in financial markets. A structural vector autoregressive model is used including data for the Euro Area, the United Kingdom, and the United States from 2007 to 2017. Moreover, instead of short-term nominal interest rate, the shadow policy rate is used to measure the stance of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy. It is useful when policy rates of central banks are at or near zero as it neglects the zero-lower bound. Using both impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition, results suggest that higher interest rates are indeed associated with lower asset prices. That is confirmed by including two different estimates of shadow rates into the model and observing the effect for two specific types of assets. More precisely, house prices react almost immediately showing the most substantial decrease for the United Kingdom, while stock prices slightly increase at first and de- crease afterward with similar size of the effect for all areas under consideration. Finally, the discussion of how the monetary authority should react to asset price fluctuations is provided, summarizing the vast amount of literature...

Abstract This dissertation is comprised of three independent essays with the unifying theme of how uncertainty affects the macroeconomy. The first essay studies an incomplete market economy where the firm faces a non-trivial investment decision due to capital adjustment costs. The adjustment costs make the price of capital endogenous and help to explain the observed volatility of the returns to physical capital. The particular form of market incompleteness that is assumed in the essay is however not enough to match the observed price of risk. The essay contains also a technical contribution in showing how Arrow prices of contingent commodities can be used in computing the equilibrium in this class of models. The second essay studies the effect of population aging on asset prices. The modeling framework features deterministic transition paths for demographic structure and level of government expenditures along with aggregate uncertainty at business cycle frequency. The demographic transition leads to a projected increase of in tax rates that are needed to finance the government expenditures. This requires higher savings rates from households which reduces volatility of consumption growth and reduces the price of aggregate risk. The third essay is an empirical study which uses betting market data from the Swedish harness horse racing in conjunction with economic confidence indices. The main finding is that the risk attitudes of bettors that are reflected by the betting market data covary with the more traditional confidence measures in a reasonable way. The essay also contains a simple forecasting exercise which shows that the novel risk measure may also be useful in forecasting the industrial production. The results of the study are interpreted in terms of behavioral macroeconomics. / Tiivistelmä Tämä väitöskirja koostuu kolmesta erillisestä esseestä, joiden yhdistävä tekijä on epävarmuus ja sen vaikutukset makrotalouden ilmiöihin. Ensimmäisessä esseessä tarkastellaan taloutta, jossa markkinat ovat epätäydelliset ja fyysisen pääoman sopeuttamiskustannukset vaikuttavat yrityksen investointipäätökseen. Pääoman sopeuttamiskustannukset tekevät pääoman hinnasta endogeenisen muuttujan ja auttavat selittämään havaittua pääoman tuottojen volatiliteettia. Tutkimuksessa käytetyt markkinoiden epätäydellisyyteen johtavat oletukset eivät kuitenkaan riitä selittämään historiallisesti havaittua riskin hintaa. Essee sisältää myös teknisen kontribuution. Siinä osoitetaan, miten talouden tilasta riippuvien hyödykkeiden Arrow-hintoja voidaan hyödyntää tämän tyyppisten talouksien tasapainon numeerisessa ratkaisemisessa. Toinen essee tarkastelee väestön ikääntymisen vaikutuksia varallisuushyödykkeiden hintoihin. Malli yhdistää väestörakenteen ja julkisten kulutusmenojen deterministisen muutoksen sekä suhdannevaihtelua kuvaavan kokonaistaloudellisen epävarmuuden. Väestörakenteen odotettu muutos johtaa julkisten kulutusmenojen kasvun myötä veroasteiden nousuun. Kotitaloudet joutuvat säästämään enemmän, mikä vähentää kulutuksen kasvun volatiliteettia ja kokonaistaloudellisen riskin hintaa. Kolmas essee on empiirinen tutkimus, jossa käytetään havaintoaineistoa Ruotsin ravivedonlyöntimarkkinoilta sekä taloudellisia luottamusindikaattoreita. Tärkein tulos on että vedonlyöntiaineiston heijastama suhtautuminen riskiin näyttää olevan vuorovaikutuksessa perinteisten luottamusindikaattoreiden kanssa. Esseessä käytetään myös yksinkertaista aikasarjamallia, joka viittaa siihen, että vedonlyöntiaineiston perusteella laskettu riskiin suhtautumisen mitta voi olla hyödyllinen teollisuustuotannon ennustamisessa. Tuloksia tulkitaan behavioraalisen makrotaloustieteen valossa.

The relations between monetary policies, asset prices, and economic growth are important and fundamental questions in macroeconomics. To address these issues, several empirical works have been conducted to investigate these relations. However, few of them have documented whether these relations differ across regimes. In this context, the general motivation of this thesis is to use dependent regime models to examine these relations for the Canadian case. Chapter one empirically analyzes the interest rate behaviour of the Canadian monetary authorities by taking into account the asymmetry in the loss function. We employ a switching regime framework using two estimation strategies: First, we follow Caner and Hansen (2004) Threshold approach. Under this procedure we estimate the threshold values, using the Taylor empirical rules. Second, we estimate the asymmetric policy reaction function following Favero and Rovelli’s (2003) approach. The results reveal that the monetary authorities showed asymmetric preferences and that its reaction function can be better modeled with a nonlinear model. The main contribution of this chapter is to successfully interpret the parameters associated with the Bank of Canada preferences, something that Rodriguez (2008) could not do. Chapter two tries to estimate the interest rate behaviour of the Canadian monetary authorities by expanding the arguments of the loss function for fluctuations in asset prices. Using the same methodology as in the first chapter, our findings suggest that the augmented nonlinear reaction function is a good fit for the data and gives new relevant insights into the influence of asset prices on Canadian monetary policy. These findings about the role of asset prices in the reaction function of the Bank of Canada provide relevant insights regarding the opportunities and limitations of incorporating financial indicators in monetary policy decision making. They also provide financial market participants, such as analysts, bankers and traders, with a better understanding of the impact of stock market index prices on Bank of Canada policy. Stock market stabilization plays a larger role in the interest rate decisions of the Bank of Canada than it is willing to admit. Chapter three provides new evidence on the relation between inflation, relative price variability and economic growth to a panel of Canadian provinces over the period 1981-2008. We use the Bick and Nautz (2008) modified version of Hansen’s (1999) Panel Threshold Model. The evidence strongly supports the view that the relationship between inflation and economic growth is nonlinear. Further investigation suggests that relative price variability is one of the important channels through which inflation affects economic performance in Canadian provinces. When taking into account the cross-section dependence, we find that the critical threshold value slightly changes. It is desirable to keep the inflation rate in a moderate inflation regime because it may be helpful for the achievement of sustainable economic growth. The results seem to indicate that inflation that is too high or too low may have detrimental effects on economic growth.