Accompanying the advances in computer technology is an increase collection of high dimensional data in many scientific and social studies. Sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) is a statistical method that enable us to reduce the dimension ofpredictors without loss of regression information. In this dissertation, we introduce principal asymmetric least squares (PALS) as a unified framework for linear and nonlinear sufficient dimension reduction. Classical methods such as sliced inverse regression (Li, 1991) and principal support vector machines (Li, Artemiou and Li, 2011) often do not perform well in the presence of heteroscedastic error, while our proposal addresses this limitation by synthesizing different expectile levels. Through extensive numerical studies, we demonstrate the superior performance of PALS in terms of both computation time and estimation accuracy. For the asymptotic analysis of PALS for linear sufficient dimension reduction, we develop new tools to compute the derivative of an expectation of a non-Lipschitz function. PALS is not designed to handle symmetric link function between the response and the predictors. As a remedy, we develop expectile-assisted inverse regression estimation (EA-IRE) as a unified framework for moment-based inverse regression. We propose to first estimate the expectiles through kernel expectile regression, and then carry out dimension reduction based on random projections of the regression expectiles. Several popular inverse regression methods in the literature including slice inverse regression, slice average variance estimation, and directional regression are extended under this general framework. The proposed expectile-assisted methods outperform existing moment-based dimension reduction methods in both numerical studies and an analysis of the Big Mac data. / Statistics

In this thesis I apply modern econometric techniques on macroeconomic time series. Forecasting is here developed along several dimensions in the three chapters. The chapters are in principle self-contained. However, a common element is represented by the business cycle analysis. In the first paper, which primarily deals with the problem of forecasting euro area inflation in the short and medium run, we also compute the country-specific responses of a common business cycle shock. Both chapters 2 and 3 deal predominately with business cycle issues from two different perspectives. The former chapter analyses the business cycle as a dichotomous non-observable variable and addresses the issue of evaluating the euro area business cycle dating formulated by the CEPR committee, while the latter chapter studies the entire distribution of GDP growth. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished