O grande número de publicações na área de finanças atualmente utilizando a modelagem de cópulas pode ser explicada pela capacidade de esta técnica estatística conseguir lidar com a evidência de não normalidade das séries de retornos de ativos financeiros. A não normalidade é evidenciada através do “sorriso de volatilidade” presente em séries de opções de ações perto do vencimento; existência de “caudas pesadas” em carteiras de instituições e consequentemente no gerenciamento de risco das Instituições. Particularmente com relação ao Value at Risk (VaR), que é uma técnica estatística que tem por objetivo calcular a perda máxima de uma carteira em dado horizonte de tempo considerando um nível de significância adotado, a existência de caudas pesadas nas séries gera um problema para a determinação da distribuição de probabilidade conjunta, implicando em grande dificuldade na mensuração do grau de exposição aos fatores de risco. Esse fato acaba por dificultar o correto e efetivo gerenciamento de risco de uma carteira, pois em tese, devido à existência de não normalidade, não é possível separar os efeitos de ativos de diferentes características. Em casos de crises e bolhas, o portfólio pode ser mais arriscado que o desejado ou excessivamente conversador. Neste sentido, a utilização de Cópulas torna-se atrativa, pois com esta técnica é possível separar as distribuições marginais de cada ativo da estrutura de dependência das variáveis. O objetivo do trabalho é propor uma modelagem de risco a partir do uso de Cópulas para o cálculo do Value at Risk (VaR), utilizando os métodos de volatilidade GARCH (1,1), EWMA e HAR. A aplicação empírica do modelo foi efetuada a partir de uma amostra de uma série de retornos de uma carteira teórica composta por ativos de renda variável (ações preferenciais) das empresas Petrobras, Vale, Usiminas e Gerdau. A amostra utilizada corresponde aos preços diários entre o período de 03 de março de 2006 até 30 de abril de 2010, representando 1.026 observações diárias. Os resultados apurados para a amostra demonstraram que as cópulas tendem a gerar um Value at Risk (VaR) significativo para a maioria das famílias de Cópulas, quando testado pelo Teste de Kupiec (1995). / The large number of publications in finance using currently copulas can be explained by the ability of this technique to deal with statistical evidence of non-normality of the return series of financial assets. The non-normality is evidenced by the "volatility smile" in the series of stock options near expiration, the existence of "heavy tails" in portfolios of institutions and consequently the risk management of the institutions. Especially regarding the Value at Risk (VaR), which is a statistical technique that aims to calculate the maximum loss a portfolio at a given time horizon considering a significance level, the existence of heavy tails in the series creates a problem for determining the joint probability distribution, resulting in great difficulty in measuring the degree of exposure to risk factors. This fact makes difficult the correct and effective risk management of a portfolio, because in theory, due to the existence of non-normality, it is not possible to separate the effects of assets with different characteristics. In cases of crises and bubbles, the portfolio may be riskier than desired or overly chatty. In this regard, the use of copulas becomes attractive, because with this technique is possible to separate the marginal distributions of each dependence structure of the variables. The objective is to propose a model of risk using copulas for the calculation of Value at Risk (VaR), using the methods of volatility GARCH (1,1), EWMA and HAR. The empirical application of the model was made from a sample of a series of returns of a theoretical portfolio of assets in equities (shares) of Petrobras, Vale, Usiminas and Gerdau. The sample corresponds to the daily prices in the period between March 3rd, 2006 until April 30th, 2010, representing 1026 daily observations. The results obtained showed that copulas tend to generate a Value at Risk (VaR) for the most significant families of copulas, when tested by the Test of Kupiec (1995).

nÃo hà / Este trabalho utiliza a fronteira eficiente desenvolvida no Ãmbito da Teoria Moderna de Carteiras, objetivando atender as peculiaridades do setor e promover uma maior aproximaÃÃo com as prÃticas atuais de finanÃas. Neste sentido, o destaque fica por conta da inclusÃo do conceito de value-at-risk â VaR como instrumento de anÃlise. A verificaÃÃo da eficÃcia do modelo serà realizada tanto de forma qualitativa, atravÃs da discussÃo sobre a carteira eficiente tradicional e a carteira eficiente modificada, quanto no aspecto quantitativo, atravÃs da aplicaÃÃo prÃtica do modelo na Caixa de PrevidÃncia dos FuncionÃrios do Banco do Nordeste do Brasil - CAPEF, Entidade Fechada de PrevidÃncia Complementar patrocinada pelo Banco do Nordeste, pela Caixa de AssistÃncia MÃdica dos FuncionÃrios do Banco do Nordeste e pela prÃpria CAPEF. Tal aplicaÃÃo prÃtica permitirà mostrar a viabilidade da pesquisa dentro da Ãrea de investimentos dos Fundos de PensÃo / This work uses the efficient border developed in the scope of the Modern Wallet Theory, objectifying to take care of the peculiarities of the practical sector and to promote a bigger approach with the current ones of finances. In this direction, the prominence is on account of the inclusion of the concept of value-at-risk - VaR as analysis instrument. The verification of the effectiveness of the model will be carried through in such a way of qualitative form, through the quarrel on the traditional efficient wallet and the modified efficient wallet, how much in the quantitative aspect, through the practical application of the model in the Box of Providence of the Employees of the northeast Bank of Brazil - CAPEF, Closed Entity of Complementary Providence sponsored by the northeast Bank, the Box of Medical Assistance of the Employees of the northeast Bank and by the proper CAPEF. Such practical application will allow to inside show the viability of the research of the area of investments of the Pension funds.

In this thesis, probability theory and risk analysis are used to determine the riskof wind energy stocks. Three stocks of wind energy companies and three stocksof technology companies are gathered and risks are compared. Three difffferent riskmeasures: variance, value at risk, and conditional value at risk are used in this thesis.Conclusions which has been drawn, are that wind energy company stock risks arenot signifificantly lower than the stocks of other companies. Furthermore, optimalportfolios should include short positions of one or two of the energy companies forthe studied time period and under the difffferent risk measures.

Finance risk management has been playing an increasingly important role in the finance sector, to analyse finance data and to prevent any potential crisis. It has been widely recognised that Value at Risk (VaR) is an effective method for finance risk management and evaluation. This thesis conducts a comprehensive review on a number of VaR methods and discusses in depth their strengths and limitations. Among these VaR methods, Monte Carlo simulation and analysis has proven to be the most accurate VaR method in finance risk evaluation due to its strong modelling capabilities. However, one major challenge in Monte Carlo analysis is its high computing complexity of O(n²). To speed up the computation in Monte Carlo analysis, this thesis parallelises Monte Carlo using the MapReduce model, which has become a major software programming model in support of data intensive applications. MapReduce consists of two functions - Map and Reduce. The Map function segments a large data set into small data chunks and distribute these data chunks among a number of computers for processing in parallel with a Mapper processing a data chunk on a computing node. The Reduce function collects the results generated by these Map nodes (Mappers) and generates an output. The parallel Monte Carlo is evaluated initially in a small scale MapReduce experimental environment, and subsequently evaluated in a large scale simulation environment. Both experimental and simulation results show that the MapReduce based parallel Monte Carlo is greatly faster than the sequential Monte Carlo in computation, and the accuracy level is maintained as well. In data intensive applications, moving huge volumes of data among the computing nodes could incur high overhead in communication. To address this issue, this thesis further considers data locality in the MapReduce based parallel Monte Carlo, and evaluates the impacts of data locality on the performance in computation.

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This study gives attention to the effects of instability of placement, emotional disturbances, and at-risk behaviors on the academic performance of adolescents in foster care, specifically males. The purpose of this study was to examine the academic success of male adolescents in foster care and environmental influences that prevent many children from excelling. Data were extracted and analyzed (Chi-Square) from 50 of200 case files (active and discharged). The sample represented male residents (12 to 18 years of age) of a privately run, state licensed residential group home in Georgia. Academic performance was measured by grade point average. Twenty-eight percent did not function on grade level while 72% functioned on grade level. There was no statistical significance between academic achievement and instability of placement (X2= .577, p = .448), emotional disturbances(X2= .759, p = -.348), aggressive/violent behavior (X2= .020, p = .887), and sexual activity (X2=.732, p = .392). However, there was statistical significance found between academic achievement and substance use (X2= 4.095, p = .043). An additional key finding in this study was 74% of the adolescents had a mental health diagnosis but had only been in foster care less than one year. Therefore, additional research should be conducted to determine the preexisting conditions adolescents experience before entering foster care. The findings from this study can perhaps encourage the child welfare community to investigate other variables that may impact the academic achievement of adolescents in foster care.

This study offers a better understanding of the tourism experiences of at risk youth. A Husserlian phenomenology consisting of semi-structured interviews with a group of at risk youth residing in a treatment centre reveals a broader understanding of the tourism phenomenon as well as the essence of these experiences. Findings revealed that at risk youth value tourism and the opportunities that these experiences provide. The importance of support during this multi-phasic experience contributed to outcomes including increased learning opportunities, liberty to exercise free-choice and independence, skill acquisition, gains in social capital, improved self-perception and ultimately, increased resilience. / October 2016

Cloud computing at a high level comprises of the availability of hardware, software and technical support via a network protocol to a remote client on a pay-per-use basis. Businesses using Cloud resources has been increasing steadily in the very recent past and the number of Cloud service providers (CSP) are increasing as well. The challenges that characterize a Cloud data center include: on-demand service, elasticity, resources pooling, broad network access, service meters. As the customer base is in creasing and their resource requirement and usage pattern has been becoming highly volatile, proper utilization of the resources and generating revenue by appropriately charging the clients for their uses has become an even more challenging research problem. In other words, Cloud resource pricing has emerged as an important and pressing problem to study for ever increasing utility of Cloud computing. Literature review reveals that there are economy-based models (cash flow, net present value etc.) used for charging mechanism suggested by many researchers. Most of these models are rigid that they are not build with the core of Cloud - elasticity in mind. Also, the economic models do not provide flexibility of the economy of scale to either increase or decrease the resource requirement and appropriately charge for such increase or decrease in resource use. For my thesis, I have designed and developed a Cloud resources pricing model that satisfies two important constraints: the dynamic ability of the model to provide a high satisfaction guarantee measured as Quality of Service (QoS) - from users perspectives, and profitability constraints - from the Cloud service providers perspectives. I have employed financial option theory and treated the Cloud resources as underlying assets to capture the realistic value of the Cloud Compute Commodities (C3). I have priced the Cloud resources using my model. Through this research, I show that the Cloud parameters can be mapped to financial economic model and that this model can be effectively implemented for resource pricing purpose. I discuss the results of pricing Cloud Compute Commodities (C3) for various input parameters, such as the age of the resource and quality of service. / February 2016

This dissertation examines the experiences of foster youth as they prepare for life after emancipation from state custody. Every year in the U.S., around 25,000 youth in foster care reach the legal age of emancipation and subsequently leave state’s custody. Colloquially, this transition is known as “aging out”. Although the youth who “age out” are legally considered adults, few are ready to meet the challenges of adulthood independently. These youth are more likely than their same aged peers to end up incarcerated, face unemployment or underemployment, drop out before finishing high school, and experience substance abuse problems or a mental health disorder (Shirk & Stangler, 2005). This study adds to the growing body of knowledge about the experiences of teenaged youth “aging out” of foster care. Though empirical studies have documented challenges facing emancipated youth (Craven & Lee, 2006), very little work has examined the actual experiences of emancipation from the perspective of youth and their guardians. Using illustrative case methodology, this dissertation captures life story perspectives on the experiences of teenaged foster youth and their guardians as they prepare for life after emancipation. A qualitative approach was utilized to provide experiential data to inform the practice standards and program effectiveness associated with the services and supports these youth received while in custody of the State’s Department for Youth and Families. A project of the Vermont Research Partnership, the study was able to utilize logistical and ethical consultation from state agency leaders during the development of methodology. The findings describe and analyze the challenges and successes that youth in foster care encounter as they prepare for life after emancipation. Interview data with youth, guardians and service providers highlighted themes related to preparedness including the barriers to youth perceptions of adulthood, the ubiquity of trauma experiences, the cost of staff turnover, the importance of long term relationship, and the “pull” of the biological family. The results of the study reveal a complex intertwining of personal, familial and systemic issues that converge to hinder preparedness for independent living despite the determined efforts of foster parents, service providers, families and the youth themselves. The study suggests areas for future research as well as policy recommendations related to service provision for teenaged youth in custody as well as emancipated youth.

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship of Black males being raised in a mother-only household and their career aspirations. The absence of the father in a home stands at the forefront as the cause of family dysfunction, which subsequently leads to the destruction of many hopes and dreams of the Black male.Is a mother-only household a preconceived environment for failure for the Black male?