Um modelo oceânico de 1 ½ camadas é desenvolvido e acoplado ao modelo atmosférico tridimensional de meso escala TVM-NH, com a finalidade de estudar a interação entre a circulação atmosférica e o fenômeno de ressurgência costeira na região de Cabo Frio (RJ Brasil). A condição de contorno do modelo oceânico foi testada e provou ser pouco reflexiva. O modelo oceânico demonstrou ser capaz de representar a distribuição espacial e evolução temporal da temperatura da superfície do mar na região de estudo. O modelo acoplado foi então utilizado para estudar a influência conjunta entre a ressurgência costeira e a circulação de brisa marítima. Verificou-se que a brisa marítima intensifica a ressurgência, mas a ressurgência não intensifica a brisa marítima e, portanto, não foi verificada a retroalimentação positiva entre os dois fenômenos. Resultados mostraram que a cobertura do solo não tem influência significativa na circulação atmosférica da região, porém a topografia é fator determinante dos padrões de circulação atmosférica e é a causadora dos jatos de baixos níveis encontrados na região, devendo ser considerada em estudos sobre as circulações atmosférica e oceânica da região. Com ventos predominantes de NE, a topografia acelera o vento em superfície, intensificando indiretamente o fenômeno de ressurgência costeira, e o ar marinho penetra no continente, aumentando a estabilidade estática da atmosfera. Com ventos predominantes de SW, o padrão de ressurgência é interrompido, aumentando a temperatura da superfície do mar, transportando ar continental sobre o oceano e diminuindo a estabilidade da atmosfera. No período de inverno, na situação de interrupção do padrão de ressurgência, a atmosfera é menos estável, principalmente sobre o oceano, e somente nessa situação é observada a presença de brisa terrestre. As correntes oceânicas em superfície, na situação com ressurgência, têm direção principal de nordeste, e, na situação sem ressurgência, têm direção principal de sudeste. O acoplamento dos modelos foi um importante instrumento para o estudo das características da camada limite atmosférica da região de Cabo Frio, pois, nessa região, a circulação atmosférica, a topografia, a circulação oceânica e a evolução espacial e temporal da temperatura da superfície do mar estão fortemente inter-relacionadas. / A 1½-layer oceanic model is developed and coupled to the three-dimensional mesoscale atmospheric model, TVM-NH, to study the interaction between the atmospheric circulation and the coastal upwelling phenomenon at the Cabo Frio area (RJ Brazil). The boundary condition of the oceanic model was tested and it proved to be weakly reflective. The ocean model has been shown to represent the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of the sea surface temperature in the region of study. The coupled model was then used to study the combined influence of coastal upwelling and sea breeze circulation and it was found that the sea breeze intensifies the upwelling, but the upwelling does not enhance the sea breeze. Therefore, it was not found a positive feedback between coastal upwelling and sea breeze. Results showed that the soil cover has no significant influence on the atmospheric circulation in the region, but the topography plays an important role on the pattern of the atmospheric circulation. The topography is the cause of the low level jets found in the area and, therefore, it should be considered in studies of atmospheric and oceanic circulations. With NE prevailing winds, the topography accelerates the surface winds, indirectly intensifying the coastal upwelling phenomenon, and the marine air penetrates over the continent, increasing the static stability of the atmosphere. With SW prevailing winds, the upwelling pattern is disrupted, increasing the sea surface temperature, transporting continental air over the ocean and increasing the instability of the atmosphere. During winter, when the upwelling pattern is disrupted, the atmosphere is less stable, especially over the ocean, and only in this situation it is observed the presence of land-breeze circulation. The surface ocean currents, during upwelling, are mainly from NE direction and, without upwelling, are mainly from SE direction. The coupled model was an important tool for studying the characteristics of the atmospheric boundary layer in the region of Cabo Frio, because, in this region, the atmospheric circulation, topography, ocean circulation and the spatial and temporal evolution of the sea surface temperature are strongly interrelated.

Les interactions entre la convection humide et la dynamique de grande échelle sont au cœur du climat tropical et de sa variabilité. Les processus associés aux nuages convectifs, tels que la condensation, l'évaporation, les processus radiatifs, et le transport d'énergie à petite échelle associé, génèrent des gradients de température dans l'atmosphère. Ces derniers engendrent des circulations de grande échelle qui contrôlent les distributions spatio-temporelles d'énergie et d'humidité, et donc en retour celle de la convection. Ces interactions forment probablement l'un des problèmes scientifiques majeurs de la modélisation de l'atmosphère. L'objectif de cette thèse est d'analyser la représentation de ces interactions dans le modèle de climat ARPEGE-Climat Version 6 et de comprendre le rôle qu'elles peuvent jouer dans les principaux biais du modèle sous les tropiques, notamment un biais froid de plusieurs degrés en moyenne et haute troposphère et un biais sec vers 850 hPa. Les impacts des processus convectifs sur la grande échelle sont souvent caractérisés par deux quantités, la source de chaleur apparente Q1 et le puits d'humidité apparent Q2 . Bien que difficilement observables, ces deux quantités peuvent être estimées en déployant un réseau de radiosondages permettant de déterminer les différents termes des bilans d'eau et d'énergie sur un quadrilatère donné. Un tel dispositif a été mis en œuvre d'octobre à décembre 2011 pendant la campagne CINDY2011/DYNAMO au cœur de l'Océan Indien. Les observations collectées et les données de Q1 et Q2 dérivées ont été utilisées dans cette thèse pour (i) caractériser le cycle de vie de la convection et (ii) mettre en place une configuration unicolonne du modèle ARPEGE-Climat sur les quadrilatères Nord et Sud du domaine CINDY2011/DYNAMO. Les résultats ont montré que le modèle ARPEGE-Climat est capable de reproduire de manière satisfaisante les transitions entre régimes de convection peu profonde, profonde et stratiforme, malgré une nette sous-estimation du flux d'évaporation en surface et de l'activité convective sur le domaine nord. Le modèle reproduit plus difficilement l'humidification de la troposphère pendant les phases de cumulus peu profonds. Les résultats obtenus dans ce cadre unicolonne ont ensuite été confrontés à des configurations 3D du modèle ARPEGE-Climat, à la fois en mode AMIP où le modèle est seulement forcé par les températures de la mer observées, et en mode "Transpose-AMIP" où le modèle est de plus initialisé à partir d'états réalistes de l'atmosphère. L'analyse de la dérive systématique du modèle dans ces simulations Transpose-AMIP a permis de montrer que les biais obtenus en mode AMIP étaient associés à des processus rapides (quelques jours). Ces biais sont généralement aussi très similaires à ceux documentés dans le cadre unicolonne. L'origine des biais thermodynamiques est analysée plus en détail, soulignant un rôle important des régimes de convection profonde, notamment dans sa phase stratiforme, pour le biais froid de la haute troposphère, et des défauts importants dans les régimes de cumulus peu profond et de congestus pour les biais d'humidité. Ces régimes mériteront une attention particulière dans les prochains développements de la physique d'ARPEGE-Climat. / The tropical climate and its variability at multiple timescales are dominated by interactions between moist convection and the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Small-scale processes associated with convective clouds such as condensation and evaporation, radiation, and vertical mixing all contribute to atmospheric temperature gradients which generate large-scale circulations. Such circulations exert a control on the spatio-temporal distribution of energy and humidity within the tropical atmosphere and, in turn, on moist convection. These twoway interactions represent one of the most difficult scientific challenge for global atmospheric modelling. The main objective of the present thesis is to analyse the representation of these interactions in Version 6 of the ARPEGE-Climat atmospheric general circulation model and to understand their possible contribution to the main model biases in the tropics, especially a cold bias in the mid and upper troposphere and a dry bias around 850 hPa. The large-scale impacts of moist convection are often characterized by two quantities, the apparent heat source, Q1, and the apparent moisture sink, Q2. Although difficult to observe, these two quantities can be estimated by deploying a sounding array of sufficient density to compute the different terms of the water and energy budgets over a selected domain. Such a strategy was implemented between October and December 2011 during the CINDY2011/DYNAMO field campaign in the middle of the tropical Indian Ocean. The collected observations and the derived Q1 and Q2 estimates are used in the present thesis to (i) characterize the life cycle of the tropical convection and (ii) set up a single column configuration of the ARPEGE-Climat model on the northern and southern domains of the campaign. Results show that the model is able to capture satisfactorily the transitions between different convective regimes, from shallow to deep and stratiform, despite a strong undestimation of surface evaporation and of the overall convective activity over the northern domain. The model however shows some difficulties at simulating the troposphere moistening during the shallow cumulus regime. The single column model results are then compared to 3D configurations of the ARPEGEClimat model, both in AMIP mode where the model is only driven by observed sea surface temperatures, and in " Transpose-AMIP " mode where the model is also initialized from realistic atmospheric conditions. Through the analysis of the systematic atmospheric drift across these Transpose-AMIP integrations, the dominant contribution of fast (within a few days) processes to the model biases found in AMIP mode is highlighted. Such biases also show some similarity with the errors simulated in the single-column framework. A more detailed analysis of the model systematic errors reveals a strong contribution of deep convection, especially in its stratiform regime, to the cold bias in the upper troposphere, and of deficiencies in the shallow cumulus regime to the moisture biases. These regimes will therefore deserve a particular attention during the next phase of development of the ARPEGE-Climat model.

This thesis investigates how variations in the oxygen isotopic composition of lake waters in northern Fennoscandia are recorded in lake sediment archives, especially diatoms, and how these variations can be used to infer past changes in climate and atmospheric circulation. Results from analyses of the oxygen isotopic composition of lake water samples (δ18Olakew) collected between 2001 and 2006 show that δ18O of northern Fennoscandian lakes is mainly controlled by the isotopic composition of the precipitation (δ18Op). Changes in local δ18Op depend on variations in ambient air temperature and changes in atmospheric circulation that lead to changes in moisture source, vapour transport efficiency, or winter to summer precipitation distribution. This study demonstrates that the amount of isotopic variation in lake water δ18O is determined by a combination of the original δ18Olakew, the amount and timing of the snowmelt, the amount of seasonally specific precipitation and groundwater, any evaporation effects, and lake water residence time. The fact that the same isotope shifts have been detected in various δ18Olakew proxies, derived from hydrologically different lakes, suggests that these records reflect regional atmospheric circulation changes. The results indicate that diatom biogenic silica isotope (δ18Odiatom) records can provide important information about changes in atmospheric circulation that can help explain temperature and precipitation changes during the Holocene. The reconstructed long-term Holocene decreasing δ18Op trend was likely forced by a shift from strong zonal westerly airflow (relatively high δ18Op) in the early Holocene to a more meridional flow pattern (relatively low δ18Op). The large δ18Olakew depletion recorded in the δ18O records around ca. 500 cal yr BP (AD 1450) may be due to a shift to more intense meridional airflow over northern Fennoscandia resulting in an increasing proportion of winter precipitation from the north or southeast. This climate shift probably marks the onset of the so-called Little Ice Age in this region. / At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 1: In press. Paper 2: Submitted. Paper 5: In progress.

Increasing concerns over future anthropogenic effects on climate change as a result of increasing greenhouse gases generate concomitant efforts to better characterize recent climate in order to more accurately predict climate in the future. To this end, a multiproxy study of climate variability in western Ireland from lacustrine sediment was undertaken. The interpretation of paleoclimate records derived from lacustrine carbonate minerals is difficult without a good understanding of the mechanisms that generate variation in isotope values of modern surface waters. Variation in surface waters are ultimately incorporated into lacustrine sediment records conflated by temperature. Therefore, a study of the spatial distribution of ä¹⁸O and äD values of lake and river waters from 144 locations in Ireland has been conducted to provide insight into the behavior of lakes and rivers in Ireland, including source, recycling and loss through evapotranspiration. A 7.6 m sediment core was recovered from Lough Inchiquin that provides evidence for rapid and long-term climate change from the Late Glacial to the Holocene. This was determined using carbon and oxygen isotope analyses of lacustrine calcite as well as carbon from bulk organic sediment fractions. Several significant climate perturbations were identified in the ä¹⁸O_calcite record such as the Oldest Dryas, Younger Dryas, and the 8.2 ka cold event. A previously undescribed climate anomaly between 7,300 to 6,700 cal. yr B.P. characterized by low ä¹⁸O</span>_calcite values with high frequency variability. Variations in carbon isotopes of calcite and bulk organics from the Late Glacial to the Holocene are significant in magnitude (~12) and have similar trends that record temporal shifts in the relative contributions of carbon from the weathering of limestone versus the weathering of terrestrial organic matter. ä¹³C_calcite and ä¹³C_org suggest a rapid recovery of terrestrial vegetation following the Younger Dryas. Change in Ää¹³C_{calcite - org} documents a rapid increase in exogenous fluxes of carbon into the lake at ~9 ka.

Increasing concerns over future anthropogenic effects on climate change as a result of increasing greenhouse gases generate concomitant efforts to better characterize recent climate in order to more accurately predict climate in the future. To this end, a multiproxy study of climate variability in western Ireland from lacustrine sediment was undertaken. The interpretation of paleoclimate records derived from lacustrine carbonate minerals is difficult without a good understanding of the mechanisms that generate variation in isotope values of modern surface waters. Variation in surface waters are ultimately incorporated into lacustrine sediment records conflated by temperature. Therefore, a study of the spatial distribution of ä¹⁸O and äD values of lake and river waters from 144 locations in Ireland has been conducted to provide insight into the behavior of lakes and rivers in Ireland, including source, recycling and loss through evapotranspiration. A 7.6 m sediment core was recovered from Lough Inchiquin that provides evidence for rapid and long-term climate change from the Late Glacial to the Holocene. This was determined using carbon and oxygen isotope analyses of lacustrine calcite as well as carbon from bulk organic sediment fractions. Several significant climate perturbations were identified in the ä¹⁸O_calcite record such as the Oldest Dryas, Younger Dryas, and the 8.2 ka cold event. A previously undescribed climate anomaly between 7,300 to 6,700 cal. yr B.P. characterized by low ä¹⁸O</span>_calcite values with high frequency variability. Variations in carbon isotopes of calcite and bulk organics from the Late Glacial to the Holocene are significant in magnitude (~12) and have similar trends that record temporal shifts in the relative contributions of carbon from the weathering of limestone versus the weathering of terrestrial organic matter. ä¹³C_calcite and ä¹³C_org suggest a rapid recovery of terrestrial vegetation following the Younger Dryas. Change in Ää¹³C_{calcite - org} documents a rapid increase in exogenous fluxes of carbon into the lake at ~9 ka.

Three semi-permanent cloud bands exist in the Southern Hemisphere extending southeastward from the equator, through the tropics, and into the subtropics. The most prominent of these features occurs in the South Pacific and is referred to as the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). Similar convergence zones, with less intensity, exist in the South Atlantic (SACZ) and Indian (SICZ) oceans. We attempt to explain the physical mechanisms that promote the diagonal orientation of the SPCZ and the processes that determine the timescales of its variability. It is argued that the slowly varying sea surface temperature patterns produce upper tropospheric wind fields that vary substantially in longitude. Regions where 200 hPa zonal winds decrease with longitude (i.e., negative zonal stretching deformation, or dU/dx<0) reduce the group speed of the eastward propagating synoptic (3-6 day period) Rossby waves and locally increase the wave energy density. Such a region of wave accumulation occurs in the vicinity of the SPCZ, thus providing a physical basis for the diagonal orientation and earlier observations that the zone acts as a "graveyard" of propagating synoptic disturbances. In essence, dU/dx=0 demarks the boundary of the graveyard while regions where dU/dx<0 denote the graveyard itself. Composites of the life cycles of synoptic waves confirm this hypothesis. From the graveyard hypothesis comes a more general theory accounting for the SPCZ's spatial orientation and its longer term variability influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), or alternatively, the changing background SST associated with different phases of ENSO.

It has been proposed that the Asian-Australasian monsoon system is influenced by large-scale sea-surface temperature (SST) variability in the three tropical oceans although how this influence is manifested has remained a largely open question. Closure of this issue is important because it is needed to explain trends in monsoon precipitation and circulation that have occurred in the last 30 years. Using an atmospheric general circulation model, we run a series of experiments with different configurations of global SST relating to various epochs occurring during the last century to evaluate their influence on the monsoon. Comparisons of circulation fields show that a colder SST configuration generates a weaker large-scale monsoonal circulation. On the other hand, warmer SST states generate stronger large scale circulations with more vigorous centers of divergence and convergence. Warmer SST configurations are associated with positive anomalies of precipitation in the eastern Bay of Bengal, Eastern Indian Ocean and South East Asia. Cooler SST configurations are associated with negative anomalies of precipitation in the Arabian Sea and Indian peninsula, especially at the beginning of the summer. Since SST gradients determine, to a large degree, the low level flow, they are also going to influence the transport of atmospheric moisture. Comparison of vertically integrated moisture transport fields between the different experiments show that cold SST configuration favors an increased inter-hemispheric flow of moisture but decreases in the westerly moisture flow in to the Bay of Bengal and India. Warm SST configurations, on the other hand, strengthens westerly flow into the eastern Indian Ocean. An increasing availability of moisture in a region of stronger convergence constitutes a favorable environment for the production of monsoonal precipitation. African easterly waves (AEW) constitute an important component of the African and tropical Atlantic Ocean climate during the boreal summer. An understanding of this component is essential since AEW are closely related with tropical Atlantic storm activity. We adopt an idealized modeling approach using the WRF model initialized with ERA-40 reanalysis data to study the mechanisms that trigger the formation and maintenance of AEW. The model domain includes the African continent, central and eastern Atlantic Ocean and the western Indian Ocean. Experiments are designed to test the relative importance of the thermal effect of the eastern African topography and the influence of the cross-equatorial pressure gradient, induced by the sea surface temperature (SST) on the origins and maintenance of AEW. Topography and SST variation are selectively added and removed. The control experiment shows that the model reproduces many of the mean features observed during the boreal summer. Westward propagating disturbances of 3-8 day period that originate between 30 and 40E at the surface levels and in the mid troposphere are well depicted. In addition, the model provides a reasonable representation of the AEJ. When all topographic features are removed, there is a weakening of the AEJ over land and ocean, however, longitude-time sections of meridional velocity still exhibit westward propagating disturbances that reach the western African coast at the surface and at the jet level with the same 3-8 day period. Spectral analysis of meridional velocity show that the variability associated with AEWs is reduced over East Africa and West Africa at 850-hPa and is reduced west of 20E along the southern flank of the jet and over northern Africa at the jet level. Maximum amplitude of the disturbances occurs right at the coast. The spatial distribution of barotropic and baroclinic energy conversions explains the reduction in AEWs over land and the intensification of these features at the coast. When the zonal SST gradient is removed, a weaker AEJ displaces southward and a weaker monsoon flow ensues. Spectral analysis of meridional velocity displays a variance reduction in the 3-8 day band at the 850-hP a level in western and eastern Africa and at the coast. At the 650-hPa level significant changes are not observed at the latitude of the AEJ (15N), however, a decrease in the variance associated with AEW occurs at the southern flank of the jet. A southward displacement of the jet favors a weakening of the baroclinic energy conversions. Barotropic conversions also appear to be weaker when the SST gradient is removed. The present study suggests that orography plays an important role in determining the variability of meridional wind associated with AEW over Eastern Africa at the lower levels. Further, zonal SST gradients over the Atlantic favor intensification of waves when they reach the coast and the maintenance of disturbances across the Ocean. Also, results could suggest that SST gradients support genesis of AEW just off the coast of Africa.

The spatial and temporal complexity of tropical cyclones (TCs) raises a number of scientific questions regarding their genesis, movement, intensification, and variability. In this dissertation, the principal goal is to determine the current state of predictability for each of these processes. To quantify the current extent of tropical cyclone predictability, we assess probabilistic forecasts from the most advanced global numerical weather prediction system to date, the ECMWF Variable Resolution Ensemble Prediction System (VarEPS). Using a new false alarm clustering technique to maximize the utility of the VarEPS, the ensemble system is shown to provide well-calibrated probabilistic forecasts for TC genesis through a lead-time of one week, and pregenesis track forecasts with similar skill compared to the VarEPS's postgenesis track forecasts. To quantify the predictability of TCs on intraseasonal time scales, forecasts from the ECMWF Monthly Forecast System (ECMFS) are examined for the North Atlantic Ocean. From this assessment, dynamically based forecasts from the ECMFS provide forecast skill exceeding climatology out to weeks three and four for portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico, western Caribbean and the Main Development Region. Forecast skill in these regions is traced to the model's ability to capture correctly the variability in deep-layer vertical wind shear, the relative frequency of easterly waves moving through these regions, and the intraseasonal modulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. On interannual time scales, the predictability of TCs is examined by considering their relationship with tropical Atlantic easterly waves. First, a set of easterly wave climatologies for the CFS-R, ERA-Interim, ERA-40, and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis are developed using a new easterly wave-tracking algorithm. From the reanalysis-derived climatologies, a moderately positive and statistically significant relationship is seen with tropical Atlantic TCs. In relation to large-scale climate modes, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) exhibit the strongest positive covariability with Atlantic easterly wave frequency. Besides changes in the number of easterly waves, the intensification efficiency of easterly waves has also been evaluated. These findings offer a plausible physical explanation for the recent increase in the number of NATL TCs, as it has been concomitant with an increasing trend in both the number of tropical Atlantic easterly waves and intensification efficiency. The last component of this dissertation examines how the historical variability in U.S. landfalling TCs has impacted the annual TC tornado record. To reconcile the inhomogeneous, historical tornado record, two statistical tornado models, developed from a set of a priori predictors for TC tornado formation, are used to reconstruct the TC tornado climatology. While the synthetic TC tornado record reflects decadal scale variations in association with the AMO, a comparison of the current warm phase of the AMO with the previous warm phase period shows that the median number of tornadoes per Gulf TC landfall has significantly increased. This change likely reflects the increase in median TC size (by 35%) of Gulf landfalling TCs along with an increased frequency of large TCs at landfall.

published_or_final_version / Mechanical Engineering / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

Both physical circulation and biogeochemical characteristics are unique in the Southern Ocean (SO) region, and are fundamentally different from those of the northern hemisphere. Moreover, according to previous research, the oceanic response to the trend of the Southern Annual Mode (SAM) has profound impacts on the future oceanic uptake of carbon dioxide in the SO. In other words, the climate and circulation of the SO are strongly coupled to the overlying atmospheric variability. However, while we have understanding on the SO physical circulation and have the ability to predict the future changes of the SO climate and physical processes, the link between the SO physical processes, the air-sea carbon flux, and correlated climate variability remains unknown. Even though scientists have been studying the spatial and temporal variability of the SO carbon flux and the associated biogeochemical processes, the spatial patterns and the magnitudes of the air-sea carbon flux do not agree between models and observations. Therefore, in this study, we utilized a modified version of a general circulation model (GCM) to performed realistic simulations of the SO carbon on seasonal to interannual timescales, and focused on the crucial physical and biogeochemical processes that control the carbon flux. The spatial pattern and the seasonal cycle of the air-sea carbon dioxide flux is calculated, and is broadly consistent with the climatological observations. The variability of air-sea carbon flux is mainly controlled by the gas exchange rate and the partial pressure of carbon dioxide, which is in turn controlled by the compensating changes in temperature and dissolved inorganic carbon. We investigated the seasonal variability of dissolved inorganic carbon based on different regional processes. Furthermore, we also investigated the dynamical adjustment of the surface carbon flux in response to the different gas exchange parameterizations, and conclude that parameterization has little impact on spatially integrated carbon flux. Our simulation well captured the SO carbon cycle variability on seasonal to interannual timescales, and we will improve our model by employ a better scheme of nutrient cycle, and consider more nutrients as well as ecological processes in our future study.