In this thesis, analyses of the moisture budget in the 5th ECMWF reanalysis (ERA5) and in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) historical simulations and future projections are leveraged to explore the maintenance and response to climate change of the hydroclimate in the Mediterranean region. Recent and future projected changes in the Mediterranean, a climate-change hot and dry spot. The transition toward a warmer and drier climate has substantial social and economic implications; hence, it is critical to invest in understanding the Mediterranean hydroclimate change over the coming decades. One of our goals is to complement previous work by further decomposing the mean flow into contributions by the zonal-mean flow, which is dominated by the mean meridional circulation, and by zonally anomalous circulations and/or moisture, namely the stationary eddies. In present-day climate, as depicted by ERA5, annual-mean net evaporation (negative P-E) over the ocean and net precipitation (positive P-E) over land are primarily due to submonthly transient eddies converging moisture originating from the sea into the surrounding land. Overall, total stationary eddies reinforce the transient tendency over the ocean but oppose it over land, with the zonal-mean meridional circulation exerting a minor drying tendency limited to the region's southernmost latitudes. These large-scale features are captured quite well in the ensemble-mean of ten CMIP6 models analyzed in this work. The same CMIP6 model subset is thus used to study the response of the Mediterranean hydroclimate at the end of the 21st century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. According to the CMIP6 multi-model mean, the climatological annual mean P – E is projected to decrease drastically by the end of the 21st century, both over northern Mediterranean land regions as well as the sea. These changes are not due to the transient eddies, which exert an overall negative but weak tendency, but are driven by changes in the time-mean flow. Consistent with the mean climatological moisture budget, this drying arises from the zonally anomalous circulation term, that is, enhanced zonally anomalous descent and lower-level diverging wind patterns over the Mediterranean region. Our results highlight the importance of circulation changes within the Mediterranean region and their impacts on the hydrological cycle. However, the thermodynamic adjustment is never trivial in our region and is deserving of further investigation. In particular, we are exploring if and to what extent an extended scaling, which is based only on climatological quantities and changes in surface properties, performs better than the simple Clausius-Clapeyron scaling by including thermodynamic changes in advection. Our analyses indeed show that, both in the annual mean and through the seasonal cycle, the extended scaling better captures the full thermodynamic component, which, unlike the simple scaling, predicts a wettening over the ocean. While not fully accounting for the magnitude nor the extent of this wettening, the extended scaling outperforms the simple scaling. %Areas of better agreement also include the nearby land regions, including France and the Iberian Peninsula, where the extended scaling predicts a stronger drying. Throughout the target region, the differences between the two scalings primarily arise from the contribution of the terms involving the gradients of fractional changes in local relative humidity and near-surface temperature changes. Even if largely cancelling, these two terms give rise to a pattern grossly characterized by moistening over the ocean and drying over neighbouring regions. Overall, the results of this thesis highlight how changes in the hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean region result from a complex interplay between different mechanisms, arising from both thermodynamic and dynamical changes. In particular, our results emphasize how the overall drying tendency in the region is primarily due to zonally asymmetric circulation changes rather than by changes in the mean meridional circulation, and is augmented by changes in transient eddies and those arising through the simple thermodynamic wet-get-wetter mechanism, and is partly opposed over the ocean and reinforced over the land regions by thermodynamic changes in advection. By shedding light on all of the involved mechanisms, this work advances our understanding of the factors that make the Mediterranean region a climate-change hot and dry spot.

This thesis documents a collection of experimental investigations in which a differentially-heated annulus was used to investigate the effects of topography on the atmospheric and oceanic circulation. To this end a number of experiments were devised, each using a different topographic base to study a different aspect of the impact of topography, motivated by the most notable outstanding questions found in a review of the literature, namely exploring the effects of topographic resonance, blocking via partial barriers, and azimuthally differential-heating via thermal topography. First of all, whilst employing sinusoidal wavenumber-3 topography to extend the experimental parameter space of a similar study, namely Read and Risch (2011), a new regime within a region of structural vacillation was encountered. Denoted as the ‘stationary-transition’ regime, it featured periodic oscillations between a dominant stationary wavenumber-3 flow and axisymmetric or chaotic flow. An investigation into topographic resonance followed, keeping the wavenumber-3 base, but with a sloped lid to add a beta effect to the annulus. This acted to increase the occurrence of stationary waves, along with the ‘stationary-transition’ regime, which was discovered to be a near-resonant region where nonlinear topographic resonant instability led to a 23 to 42 ‘day’ oscillatory structure. The base was then replaced with an isolated ridge, forming a partial barrier to study the difference between blocked and unblocked flow. The topography was found to impact the circulation at a level much higher than its own peak, causing a unique flow structure when the drifting flow and the topography interacted in the form of an ‘interference’ regime at low Taylor Numbers, as well as forming an erratic ‘irregular’ regime at higher Taylor Numbers. Lastly, this isolated ridge was replaced by flat heating elements covering the same azimuthal extent, in order to observe whether thermal topography could be comparable to mechanical topography. These azimuthally-varying heating experiments produced much the same results as the partial barriers study, despite the lack of a physical peak or bottom-trapped waves, suggesting that blocking is independent of these activities. Evidence of resonant wave-triads was noted in all experiments, though the component wavenumbers of the wave-triads and their impact on the flow was found to depend on the topography in question.

Temporal stability of effects of the 11-year solar cycle on circulation conditions in central Europe Abstract The aim of this master thesis is to determinewhether circulation conditions in central Europe are affected by variable solar activity. Circulation type classification by Beck (2000) is used here to evaluate the solar effects. Circulation characteristics of circulation are available back to 1780. This master thesis proves that the solar cycle effects on circulation conditions in central Europe are not stationary in time. It was demonstrated that the frequency of individual circulation types varies significantly, depending on the length of studied period. The impact of solar variability on circulation conditions in central Europe is more significant when a shorter time period is being considered. It was also found that the response of circulation characteristics on solar variability is not immediate. There have not been clear results if there exists a linear trend on lagged response of solar variability on circulation characteristics. Linear trend has been found only for a whole year dataset with a lagged response within a year. This thesis proves that the solar cycle effects on troposphere are highly variable, so it is very difficult to define them straightforward. Keywords: atmospheric circulation,...

An Ocean Current Turbine (OCT) numerical simulation for creating, testing and tuning flight and power takeoff controllers, as well as for farm layout optimization is presented. This simulation utilizes a novel approach for analytically describing oceanic turbulence. This approach has been integrated into a previously developed turbine simulation that uses unsteady Blade Element Momentum theory. Using this, the dynamical response and power production of a single OCT operating in ambient turbulence is quantified. An approach for integrating wake effects into this single device numerical simulation is presented for predicting OCT performance within a farm. To accomplish this, far wake characteristics behind a turbine are numerically described using analytic expressions derived from wind turbine wake models. These expressions are tuned to match OCT wake characteristics calculated from CFD analyses and experimental data. Turbine wake is characterized in terms of increased turbulence intensities and decreased mean wake velocities. These parameters are calculated based on the performance of the upstream OCT and integrated into the environmental models used by downstream OCT. Simulation results are presented that quantify the effects of wakes on downstream turbine performance over a wide range of relative downstream and cross stream locations for both moored and bottom mounted turbine systems. This is done to enable the development and testing of flight and power takeoff controllers designed for maximizing energy production and reduce turbine loadings. / Includes bibliography. / Dissertation (Ph.D.)--Florida Atlantic University, 2016. / FAU Electronic Theses and Dissertations Collection

Tropical and extratropical Pacific decadal climate variability substantially impact physical and biological systems in the Pacific Ocean and strongly influence global climate through teleconnection patterns. Current understanding of Pacific decadal climate variability centers around the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Aleutian Low (AL), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, recent literature has highlighted the emerging roles of secondary modes of variability of the tropical and extratropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean in global climate change: the Central Pacific Warming (CPW) phenomenon, the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). This work analyzes the statistics and uncertainties behind Pacific interannual and decadal-scale climate variability, and focuses on better understanding the roles of the CPW, NPO, and NPGO in the climate system. The study begins by examining the dynamics of the NPO and its role in Pacific interannual and decadal climate variability. Results illustrate that the individual poles of the NPO have relations at high frequencies, but only the southern node contains a deterministic low-frequency component, which is forced by tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, as shown with a modeling experiment. The NPO-induced variability by the tropical Pacific SST is then integrated by the underlying ocean surface to form the decadal-scale NPGO signal. Thus, a new link between the CPW, the NPO, and the NPGO is formed, expanding the current framework of Pacific decadal variability and its implications for weather and climate. The new framework of North Pacific decadal variability (NPDV) is then evaluated in 24 state-of-the-art coupled climate models. Results indicate that the models in general have difficulty reproducing the leading modes of NPDV in space and time, particularly the NPGO mode and its connection to the NPO. Furthermore, most models lack the proper connections between extratropical and tropical Pacific, for both the ENSO/AL/PDO and CPW/NPO/NPGO connections. Improvements in these teleconnections are thus needed to increase confidence in future climate projections. The last part of the dissertation explores further the importance of the CPW mode by comparing and contrasting two popular paleoclimate SST anomaly reconstruction methods used for tropical Indo-Pacific SSTs. The first method exploits the high correlation between the canonical ENSO mode and tropical precipitation; the second method uses a multi-regression model that exploits the multiple modes of covariability between tropical precipitation and SSTs, including the CPW mode. The multi-regression approach demonstrates higher skill throughout the tropical Indo-Pacific than the first approach, illustrating the importance of including the CPW phenomenon in understanding past climates.

Today, ocean modeling is fast developing as a versatile tool for the study of earth’s climate, local marine ecosystems and coastal engineering applications. Though the field of ocean modeling began in the early 1950s along with the development of climate models and primitive computers, even today, the state-of-the-art ocean models have their own limitations. Many issues still remain such as the uncertainity in the parameterisation of essential processes that occur on spatial and temporal scales smaller than that can be resolved in model calculations, atmospheric forcing of the ocean and the boundary and initial conditions. The advent of data assimilation into ocean modeling has heralded a new era in the field of ocean modeling and oceanic sciences. “Data assimilation” is a methodology in which observations are used to improve the forecasting skill of operational meteorological models. The study in the present thesis mainly focuses on obtaining a four dimensional realization (the spatial description coupled with the time evolution) of the oceanic flow that is simultaneously consistent with the observational evidence and with the dynamical equations of motion and to provide initial conditions for predictions of oceanic circulation and tracer distribution. A good implementation of data assimilation can be achieved with the availability of large number of good quality observations of the oceanic fields as both synoptic and in-situ data. With the technology in satellite oceanography and insitu measurements advancing by leaps over the past two decades, good synoptic and insitu observations of oceanic fields have been achieved. The current and expected explosion in remotely sensed and insitu measured oceanographic data is ushering a new age of ocean modeling and data assimilation. The thesis presents results of analysis of the impact of data assimilation in an ocean general circulation model of the North Indian Ocean. In this thesis we have studied the impact of assimilation of temperature and salinity profiles from Argo floats and Sea Surface height anomalies from satellite altimeters in a Sigma-coordinate Indian Ocean model. An ocean data assimilation system based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) for the Indian Ocean is used. This model is implemented, validated and applied in a climatological simulation experiment to study the circulation in the Indian Ocean. The validated model is then used for the implementation of the data assimilation system for the Indian Ocean region. This dissertation presents the qualitative and quantitative comparisons of the model simulations with and without subsurface temperature and salinity profiles and sea surface height anamoly data assimilation for the Indian Ocean region. This is the first ever reported data assimilation studies of the Argo subsurface temperature and salinity profile data with ROMS in the Indian Ocean region.

A key determinant of atmospheric circulation patterns and regional climatic conditions is sea surface temperature (SST). This has been the motivation for the development of various teleconnection methods aiming to forecast hydro-climatic variables. Among such methods are linear projections based on teleconnection gross indices (such as the ENSO, IOD, and NAO) or leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). However, these methods deteriorate drastically if the predefined indices or EOFs cannot account for climatic variability in the region of interest. This study introduces a new hydro-climatic forecasting method that identifies SST predictors in the form of dipole structures. An SST dipole that mimics major teleconnection patterns is defined as a function of average SST anomalies over two oceanic areas of appropriate sizes and geographic locations. The screening process of SST-dipole predictors is based on an optimization algorithm that sifts through all possible dipole configurations (with progressively refined data resolutions) and identifies dipoles with the strongest teleconnection to the external hydro-climatic series. The strength of the teleconnection is measured by the Gerrity Skill Score. The significant dipoles are cross-validated and used to generate ensemble hydro-climatic forecasts. The dipole teleconnection method is applied to the forecasting of seasonal precipitation over the southeastern US and East Africa, and the forecasting of streamflow-related variables in the Yangtze and Congo Rivers. These studies show that the new method is indeed able to identify dipoles related to well-known patterns (e.g., ENSO and IOD) as well as to quantify more prominent predictor-predictand relationships at different lead times. Furthermore, the dipole method compares favorably with existing statistical forecasting schemes. An operational forecasting framework to support better water resources management through coupling with detailed hydrologic and water resources models is also demonstrated.

Durant les dernières décennies, la Péninsule Antarctique a été identifiée comme étant la région où le réchauffement récent est le plus marqué dans l’Hémisphère Sud. Cependant, au-delà de la période instrumentale, la variabilité climatique Holocène de cette partie du globe est en grande partie inconnue. Cette absence de données limite notre capacité à évaluer les l’amplitude des changements actuels dans le contexte de la variabilité historique ainsi que les mécanismes de forçage sous-jacents. Nous avons ainsi ciblé nos analyses sur des enregistrements sédimentaires prélevés à l’Est et à l’Ouest de la Péninsule Antarctique, avec pour objectif d’étendre les connaissances spatiales et temporelles des conditions de l’océan de surfaces dans ce secteur de l’Antarctique au cours du dernier siècle, du dernier millénaire ainsi que durant l’Holocène. La méthodologie de cette thèse est basée sur une comparaison multi-proxies qui inclut, comme outils principaux, les assemblages des diatomées et les biomarqueurs spécifiques de diatomées (HBIs). Nous avons pu ainsi documenter la réponse régionale environnementale aux variations climatiques à différentes échelles de temps, et définir les mécanismes forçant sur la variabilité des conditions d’océan de surface ainsi que la formation du couvert de banquise en Péninsule Antarctique. La comparaison de nos enregistrements avec des données issues des carottes de glace, a permis de mettre en évidence le rôle important des changements d’intensité des cellules atmosphériques sur la dynamique de la circulation océanique, la durée du cycle saisonnier de banquise et la productivité siliceuse. / The Antarctic Peninsula has been identified during the last decades as the region from the Southern Hemisphere which is the most affected by the recent warming. However, beyond the instrumental period, the Holocene climate variability of this area is largely unknown, limiting our ability to evaluate the current changes within the context of historical variability and underpin the underlying forcing mechanisms. We focused our analysis on sedimentary sequences from the Eastern and Western side of the Antarctic Peninsula, in order to expand the spatial and temporal knowledge of sea-surface conditions over the last century, the last millennium and throughout the Holocene in this Antarctic area. The inferences are based on a multi-proxy comparison mainly using diatom assemblages and diatom specific biomarkers (HBIs). We documented the regional environmental response to climate changes at different time scales and described the forcing mechanisms on the sea-surface conditions and sea ice cover variability in Antarctic Peninsula. Comparing our results with ice core data allowed us to highlight the large impact of atmospheric forcings on the oceanic circulation, the seasonal sea ice dynamics and the siliceous productivity.

Satellite data have shown that east-west oriented cloud bands, known as Intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), propagate eastwards along the equator throughout the year and northwards during boreal summer on intraseasonal time scales. The northward propagations over Bay of Bengal have important connection with onset of south Asian monsoon and active-break cycles of the Indian monsoon. Some studies on mean structure of ITCZ have concluded that preferred location of ITCZ is governed by meridional variation of sea surface temperature (SST) while other studies have stressed the importance of heating in the free atmosphere. Studies on the migration of ITCZ have shown that northward migration of maximum convergence zone is due to generation of positive barotropic vorticity north of the convection in the boundary layer due to internal dynamics of the atmosphere. In the present study mean and transient structure of northward migration of ITCZ over Bay of Bengal is simulated with the help of a general circulation model (GCM). The mean ITCZ is found not to occur at SST maximum or SST gradient maxima. A new simple model for the mean state of ITCZ based on moisture budget, linear friction and hydrostatic assumption is proposed. It highlights the relative importance of SST and atmospheric effects in generation of maximum convergence. The large cancellation between the effect of SST on boundary layer and thermodynamic effects in free troposphere is shown to control convergence. The model also shows that latitude and time independent linear friction parameterization in a simple model is able to predict monthly mean location of ITCZ in a GCM. The results give a quantitative understanding about the relative role of surface effects and atmospheric effects in determining location of the mean ITCZ. A simple linear model for understanding the mechanism of instability that governs the northward migration of ITCZ is proposed. Vertical shear in mean winds couples the barotrpic and baroclinic modes in free troposphere in this model. The model is able to predict the correct scale with standard values of friction and diffusion parameters. The mechanism of instability is found to be due to internal dynamics of troposphere. It is shown that direction of propagation is decided by vertical shear in zonal as well as meridional mean winds. This is contrary to the previous studies which conclude that either vertical shear in zonal winds or vertical shear in meridional winds control the direction of propagation.

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