I denna rapport undersöks produktionen av metangas i deponin på Koviks återvinningsanläggning. Detta med hjälp av ett modellerings-verktyg framtaget av IPCC. Modeller för beräkning av metangasproduktion i deponier har funnits sedan 1980-talet och dess resultat kan fungera som underlag vid beslut om investeringar i utrustning för gasutvinning och energiproduktion. På Kovik har deponering skett sedan 1964 och gasutvinningen startade i mitten av 1980-talet. Metangasproduktionen och metangasemissioner på anläggningen har under flera år beräknats med hjälp av EPER France-modellen. Studier visar att denna modell tenderar att underskatta metangasemissioner, och därmed förmodligen även metangasproduktionen. En genomgång av beräkningarna på Kovik visar även att fel indata gällande deponerade mängder använts. Av dessa anledningar är det intressant att använda korrekt indata i en annan modell för att få ett mer rättvisande resultat.   Modellen som används är en First-order Multi-phase model. Den tar hänsyn till ett antal olika faktorer, däribland deponerade avfallsmängder, dess ålder, dess halveringstid samt dess innehåll av nedbrytbart organiskt kol. Avfallet delas in i kategorierna Hushållsavfall, Industriavfall och Slam. Hushållsavfallet delas även in i avfallsslagen Mat, Trädgård, Papper, Trä, Textil och Inert avfall. De olika avfallsslagen och avfallskategorierna påverkar produktionen av metangas i olika hög grad. Då information om det deponerade hushållsavfallets fördelning över olika avfallsslag saknas presenteras resultatet i tre scenarier med olika fördelning. Fördelningen i scenario 1 antas vara den mest realistiska.   Resultaten skiljer sig åt något i de olika scenarierna, gemensamt är dock att de visar att metangasproduktionen var som störst runt 2005. Avfallsmängderna, och därmed metangasproduktionen, minskar sedan fort på grund av förbudet mot deponering av organiskt material. Resultatet för scenario 1 visar att metangaspotentialen från 2015 till 2030 är omkring 15 % av den totala producerade metangasen från deponeringsstart 1964 till modellverktygets slutår 2030. Detta motsvarar en kvarvarande metangaspotential på cirka 30 kton till 2030. Utvinningen av metangas kan fortsätta på dagens nivå ungefär 5 år till.   Osäkerhet i vilka parametervärden som bör användas samt brist på data över deponerat avfall begränsar möjligheten att göra modellering på deponigasproduktion med tillförlitliga resultat. / By using a modeling tool developed by IPCC, this report examines the production of methane in the landfill at Koviks recycling facility. Models for calculating methane production has existed since the 1980s and the results can serve as a basis for decisions on investments in equipment for gas extraction and energy production. Landfilling has occurred at Kovik since 1964 and the gas extraction started in the mid-1980s. Methane gas production and methane emissions at the facility have for several years been calculated with the EPER France model. However, studies show that this model tends to underestimate the methane emissions and thereby probably also the methane production. A review of the calculations at Kovik also shows that wrong data for the amount of landfilled waste has been used. For these reasons, it is interesting to use correct data in another model to get a more accurate result. The model used in this report is a First-order Multi-phase model. It takes into account a number of factors, including quantities of landfilled waste, its age, its half-life time and its content of degradable organic carbon. The waste is divided into such categories as Household Waste, Industrial Waste and Sludge. Household waste is also divided into Food, Garden, Paper, Wood, Textile and Inert waste. The different types of waste affect the production of methane gas in different degrees. Due to the lack of information regarding the composition of the landfilled household waste the result is presented in three scenarios with different composition. The composition in scenario 1 is assumed to be the most realistic. Although the results differ slightly among the scenarios, all those scenarios suggest that methane gas production peaked around 2005. The amount of waste, and thereby the methane production, then decreases quickly because of the ban on landfilling of organic matter. The results of scenario 1 shows that methane potential from 2015 to 2030 is about 15 % of the total produced methane gas from the landfill starting year 1964 to 2030, the final year in the modeling tool. This corresponds to a remaining methane potential of about 30 kilotons by 2030. The extraction of methane gas can continue at the current level for about five years. It should be mentioned that the uncertainty of the parameters that have been used and the lack of data on landfilled waste could result in a limited reliability of the calculated gas production.

Esta pesquisa procura reunir provas e evidências científicas contrárias à hipótese do aquecimento global antropogênico e elucidar seu significado na atualidade. Argumentamos que o clima está em permanente transformação, não podendo ser reduzido a um produto de variações das concentrações atmosféricas de dióxido de carbono e que a preocupação com mudanças climáticas não é uma novidade histórica mas, apesar disso, nosso desconhecimento sobre o funcionamento do sistema climático é ainda desafiador. Concluímos que a hipótese do aquecimento global antropogênico não é consensual e exerce hoje a função de ideologia legitimadora do capitalismo tardio, perpetuando a exclusão social travestindo-se de compromisso com as gerações futuras. / This research aims to gather scientific proofs and evidences against anthropogenic global warming hypothesis and to elucidate its meaning in the present. We argue that climate is in a permanent transformation, not resuming itself to a product of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration variations and that worries about climatic changes are not new but, despite this, our ignorance on the functioning of the climate system is still challenging. We conclude that anthropogenic global warming hypothesis is not consensual and exerts nowadays the function of late capitalism legitimating ideology, perpetuating social exclusion transvestiting itself as a commitment to future generations.

Esta pesquisa procura reunir provas e evidências científicas contrárias à hipótese do aquecimento global antropogênico e elucidar seu significado na atualidade. Argumentamos que o clima está em permanente transformação, não podendo ser reduzido a um produto de variações das concentrações atmosféricas de dióxido de carbono e que a preocupação com mudanças climáticas não é uma novidade histórica mas, apesar disso, nosso desconhecimento sobre o funcionamento do sistema climático é ainda desafiador. Concluímos que a hipótese do aquecimento global antropogênico não é consensual e exerce hoje a função de ideologia legitimadora do capitalismo tardio, perpetuando a exclusão social travestindo-se de compromisso com as gerações futuras. / This research aims to gather scientific proofs and evidences against anthropogenic global warming hypothesis and to elucidate its meaning in the present. We argue that climate is in a permanent transformation, not resuming itself to a product of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration variations and that worries about climatic changes are not new but, despite this, our ignorance on the functioning of the climate system is still challenging. We conclude that anthropogenic global warming hypothesis is not consensual and exerts nowadays the function of late capitalism legitimating ideology, perpetuating social exclusion transvestiting itself as a commitment to future generations.

Rapporterna från FN:s klimatpanel (IPCC) sammanfattar resultat från naturvetenskaplig forskning om klimatförändringarna och deras globala effekter. Sedan 2007 ingår även resultat från samhällsvetenskaplig forskning, vilket har ökat rapporternas betydelse som underlag för klimatarbetet. I uppsatsen studeras utvecklingen och användningen av ett samhällsvetenskapligt begrepp rättvisa, som visar sig ha ökat med tiden.

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Climate change emerged as a topic of public and political concern in the 1980s alongside the discovery of the ‘Antarctic Ozone Hole.’ The issue was raised up the political agenda in the latter half of the 1980s by scientists and international administrators operating in a transnational setting –culminating in the eventual formation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. Created to produce a comprehensive assessment of the science, impacts and possible response strategies to climate change, the Panel managed to bridge to the two worlds of science and politics as a hybrid science-policy organisation, meeting the divergent needs of a variety of groups, specifically in the US Government. This thesis will provide an analysis of the negotiations that resulted in the formation of the IPCC in 1988. In particular, I examine the power politics of knowledge production in the relationship between a transnational set of scientists engaged in assessments of climate change and national policymakers. I argue that the IPCC was established as a means of controlling who could speak for the climate, when and how, and as such the Panel legitimised and privileged certain voices at the expense of others. In addition to tracing and examining the history of international climate change assessments in the 1980s, I will scrutinise how the issue became a topic of international political concern. Focusing on the negotiations between the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the United States of America in the formation of the IPCC, I will argue against the received view that the U.S. has consistently been in a battle with climate science and the IPCC. As I will show that the U.S. government was both integral to the decision to establish the IPCC and also one of its strongest backers. Following the formation of the Panel I examine the ad hoc decisions taken and processes adopted during the First Assessment (AR1) that contributed to the anchoring of the IPCC as the central authority on climate related knowledge. As such I show that in the absence of any formal procedural guidance there was considerable leeway for the scientists and Working Group Chairs to control and shape the content of the assessment. Finally, I analyse the ways in which U.S. and UK policymakers strategically engaged with the Panel. Significantly, I show that the ways in which the U.S. pushed all political debates to the heart of the scientific assessment imparted a linear approach to policymaking –assessment precedes and leads the policymaking –contributing to the increasing entanglement of the science and politics of climate change. Moreover, the narrow technical framing of the issue and the largely tokenistic attempts to involve participants from developing countries in the IPCC resulted in the UN resolutions (backed by developing countries) establishing the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee/United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (INC/UNFCC) contrary to the wishes of U.S. policymakers.

O Atlântico Sudoeste comporta uma das regiões oceânicas mais energéticas do planeta: a Confluência Brasil-Malvinas (CBM). Essa região encerra o giro subtropical do Atlântico Sul e possui fundamental importância para a dinâmica desse oceano bem como para o clima regional. Através de saídas de modelos numéricos acoplados do 4°?elatório do IPCC, descreve-se o comportamento dessa região em dois cenários futuros de aquecimento global: um de elevada emissão de gases estufa (A1b) e o outro mais ameno em termos de impactos antrópicos (B2). Ambos os cenários apresentaram fortes tendências de aumento de temperatura sobretudo na superfície (chegando a 0,065°C/ano no cenário A1b e 0,055°C/ano no B2). A salinidade de superfície mostrou forte tendência positiva do Equador até a região da CBM, e negativa em maiores latitudes. A posição média da CBM desloca-se em aproximadamente 1,1° para sul no cenário A1b (entre 2066 e 2100) e 0,9° no cenário B2. O padrão espectral dessa posição (dominado pelo ciclo anual no século XX) é dominado pela variabilidade de baixa frequência no cenário A1b. Tais modificações na média e no espectro da posição da CBM estão associados à intensificação e mudança da Corrente do Brasil. / Southwestern Atlantic comprises one of the most energetic region of the world: Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC). This region lies within the Southern Atlantic Subtropical Gyre and holds fundamental importance for this oceanic dynamics as well as for the regional climate. Through numerical modeling output coupled to IPCC\'s 4th Report, it is sunk to describe this region behavior for two distinct future scenarios: high greenhouse gases emission (A1b) and a milder one in terms of anthropic impacts (B2). Both scenarios have shown strong temperature increasing tendencies, especially on the surface (reaching up to 0.065°C/year in A1b and 0.055°C/year in B2). Surface salinity have also shown strong positive tendency from the Equator to the BMC region, and negative in higher latitudes. BMC medium position is shifted around 1.1°S in A1b scenario (between 2066 and 2010) and 0.9° in B2. Spectral pattern on this position (dominated for XX century annual cycle) is controlled by low-frequency variabilities in A1b scenario. These modifications in average and spectral patterns of BMC position are linked to the intensification and changing of Brazil current.

O Atlântico Sudoeste comporta uma das regiões oceânicas mais energéticas do planeta: a Confluência Brasil-Malvinas (CBM). Essa região encerra o giro subtropical do Atlântico Sul e possui fundamental importância para a dinâmica desse oceano bem como para o clima regional. Através de saídas de modelos numéricos acoplados do 4°?elatório do IPCC, descreve-se o comportamento dessa região em dois cenários futuros de aquecimento global: um de elevada emissão de gases estufa (A1b) e o outro mais ameno em termos de impactos antrópicos (B2). Ambos os cenários apresentaram fortes tendências de aumento de temperatura sobretudo na superfície (chegando a 0,065°C/ano no cenário A1b e 0,055°C/ano no B2). A salinidade de superfície mostrou forte tendência positiva do Equador até a região da CBM, e negativa em maiores latitudes. A posição média da CBM desloca-se em aproximadamente 1,1° para sul no cenário A1b (entre 2066 e 2100) e 0,9° no cenário B2. O padrão espectral dessa posição (dominado pelo ciclo anual no século XX) é dominado pela variabilidade de baixa frequência no cenário A1b. Tais modificações na média e no espectro da posição da CBM estão associados à intensificação e mudança da Corrente do Brasil. / Southwestern Atlantic comprises one of the most energetic region of the world: Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC). This region lies within the Southern Atlantic Subtropical Gyre and holds fundamental importance for this oceanic dynamics as well as for the regional climate. Through numerical modeling output coupled to IPCC\'s 4th Report, it is sunk to describe this region behavior for two distinct future scenarios: high greenhouse gases emission (A1b) and a milder one in terms of anthropic impacts (B2). Both scenarios have shown strong temperature increasing tendencies, especially on the surface (reaching up to 0.065°C/year in A1b and 0.055°C/year in B2). Surface salinity have also shown strong positive tendency from the Equator to the BMC region, and negative in higher latitudes. BMC medium position is shifted around 1.1°S in A1b scenario (between 2066 and 2010) and 0.9° in B2. Spectral pattern on this position (dominated for XX century annual cycle) is controlled by low-frequency variabilities in A1b scenario. These modifications in average and spectral patterns of BMC position are linked to the intensification and changing of Brazil current.