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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
31

Syndaren: Människan : En kritisk diskursanalys av klimatfrågans gestaltning i svensk dagspress

Bylund, Martin January 2015 (has links)
The aim of this study is to examine the framing of the issue of climate change in two swedish daily newspapers . 55 texts, 36 of which are from the morning newspaper Dagens Nyheter and 19 from the tabloid Aftonbladet go through a critical discourse analysis in terms of how they portray climate change itself, the actors involved, blame and responsibility for causing and alleviating the problem, possible solutions, system criticism as well as which ideologies and power relationships are supported by existing narratives. Louw's understanding of mass media as hype, Fairclough's perspectives on discourse, Strömbäck's perspectives on agenda setting and Palm's study of the factors behind news production have been central to the theoretical approach of the study, as have Machin and Mayr's work on critical discourse analysis. The results show that there are two main recurring discourses in the analysed material. One describes climate change as a threat. This narrative describes a struggle between civilisation and nature and places blame on all humans in a manner that closely relates to the christian concept of original sin. It is a discourse that emphasizes the following of rules and strict moral codes, naming those who do not follow the Swedish example as cheaters or villains while excluding non-civilized humans. The other, economic, discourse frames the problem of climate change as one of costs and incentives. The climate is given a monetary value, suggesting everything involved is as exchangeable as money. No alternative discourse challenges the two discourses, which interact and reinforce eachother, both legitimizing human domination of nature as well as current power relations in society.
32

Cover and Contents

Vice President Research, Office of the January 2009 (has links)
No description available.
33

Meta-analysis of GHG mitigation potentials of the application of anaerobic digestion in dairy farms

Miranda, Nicole January 2016 (has links)
Dairy farms can apply anaerobic digestion (AD) as a manure management system, while producing renewable energy. Ultimately, this can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. There is much research work that has quantified the changes in emissions due to AD. However, important methodologies such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines, rely only on a small sample of the accumulated scientific findings in the field. This thesis improves the robustness of these methodologies by applying data-driven techniques to estimate values of the energy output of AD systems and their consequent effect in GHG emissions. For this purpose, meta-analyses techniques are applied to mathematically combine metrics from 155 non-standardised research publications (i.e. with different boundaries, scopes and functional units). As a first step, a novel database is created by systematically searching for relevant articles and assessing them against defined criteria. The database is divided in two parts. Given that the offset of GHGs is highly dependent on the energy output of AD system, empirical methane yields (i.e. key metric of AD performance) are collected in Part I of the database. GHG released from different farm activities are input to Part II of the database. To quantify the change in emissions from these activities, standard baseline and AD scenarios are defined. The second step of the meta-analysis consists of applying uni- and multi-variate tests to the database. For Part I, methane yields are analysed in terms of type of digesters. From the batch digesters, new maximum methane yields are proposed based on the combined results of 42 peer reviewed articles. These results offer better estimates than default values of methane yields from the 2007 Guidelines of the IPCC, which only consider two studies. For continuously stirred tank digesters and semi-continuous digesters lower methane yields are revealed. Multi-variate analysis of methane yields together with operating conditions and manure composition, enable the identification of clusters. These groups of variables can be useful to build potential AD scenarios in dairy farms. For Part II of the database, relative changes in emissions between the activities in the standardised baseline and AD scenarios, are examined. It is found, through meta-analysis, that replacing raw manure by anaerobically-treated manure (i.e. digestate) in storage tanks and for field- application, mitigates baseline emissions by 38.7% and 6.9%, respectively. These relative changes can be used to estimate emissions from digestate, being more specific and evidence-based than the current methodology from the IPCC. In addition, relative changes found for offset of fossil fuels by biogas generated in the AD scenarios indicate a reduction of baseline emissions by 9.0%. Only methane leaks from digesters significantly increase the baseline emissions (by 7.4%). Finally, results found by meta-analyses of methane yields and changes in emissions are applied to four dairy farm case studies. The work presented in the case studies demonstrates the benefits of enhancing the robustness of methods to estimate the effect of AD on GHG emissions from dairy farms.
34

C?lculo das incertezas clim?ticas sobre Am?rica do Sul utilizando modelos do CMIP5: aferi??o atrav?s das redes neurais artificiais / Climate uncertainties in South America: measuring the IPCC-AR5 models through artificial neural networks

Santos, Thalyta Soares dos 30 September 2015 (has links)
Submitted by Automa??o e Estat?stica (sst@bczm.ufrn.br) on 2016-06-21T20:01:24Z No. of bitstreams: 1 ThalytaSoaresDosSantos_TESE.pdf: 16287598 bytes, checksum: a996869d4d7fd2e51ecc19b47b4b9bc4 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Arlan Eloi Leite Silva (eloihistoriador@yahoo.com.br) on 2016-06-23T18:14:54Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 ThalytaSoaresDosSantos_TESE.pdf: 16287598 bytes, checksum: a996869d4d7fd2e51ecc19b47b4b9bc4 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-23T18:14:54Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ThalytaSoaresDosSantos_TESE.pdf: 16287598 bytes, checksum: a996869d4d7fd2e51ecc19b47b4b9bc4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-09-30 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior (CAPES) / Neste trabalho objetivamos analisar as incertezas envolvidas nas proje??es de mudan?as clim?ticas na Am?rica do Sul (AS) simuladas por in?meros modelos num?ricos de circula??o geral acoplado oceano-atmosfera (MCGOA) da Quinta Fase do Projeto do Modelo Intercompara??o Acoplado (CMIP5) para a Am?rica do Sul. As incertezas nas proje??es das mudan?as clim?ticas futuras surgem a partir de fontes diferentes e s?o introduzidos na sequ?ncia de passos no processo de modela??o, produzindo assim uma cascata de incertezas (Knutti et al. de 2010;. Giorgi 2005). Essas incertezas projetadas pelos modelos clim?ticos ser?o calculadas atrav?s do m?todo Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) desenvolvido por Giogi e Mearns (2002) que ? utilizado para calcular o intervalo de incerteza e uma medida de confiabilidade das mudan?as clim?ticas simuladas por um conjunto de diferentes modelos de circula??o geral da atmosfera. O m?todo leva em conta dois crit?rios de confiabilidade; i) o desempenho do modelo em reproduzir o clima atual e, ii) converg?ncia das mudan?as simuladas entre os modelos. O REA ser? aplicado para os s?culos XX e XXI em diferentes cen?rios do IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ou Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudan?as Clim?ticas). Em uma segunda fase, ser? aplicado tamb?m Redes Neurais Artificias (RNA) juntamente com o c?lculo das incertezas, para avaliarmos se uso das RNA ser?o uma boa ferramenta para diminuir as incertezas geradas pelos modelos, melhorando assim a precis?o dos mesmos. Assim sendo, com o estudo proposto espera-se avaliar e quantificar detalhadamente os intervalos de incerteza nas mudan?as clim?ticas apresentadas no CMIP5 para a AS, com e sem a utiliza??o de RNA, relacionadas ao uso de diferentes modelos num?ricos e futuras emiss?es de gases de efeito estufa. Avaliando os n?veis de incerteza, disponibilizaremos uma ferramenta muito ?til para os estudos de impacto, adapta??o e vulnerabilidade. Os resultados preliminares deste estudo mostraram que a varia??o REA para a precipita??o ? um pouco menor sobre a Am?rica Sul em compara??o com a m?dia simples conjunto de modelos. A confiabilidade do conjunto de modelos foi satisfat?ria para toda a Am?rica do Sul, indicando boa simula??o dos modelos nessa regi?o.
35

Science and Policy in the International Framing och the Climate Change Issue / Vetenskap och politik i den internationella inramningen av klimatförändringarna

Larsson, Emma January 2004 (has links)
The IPCCand the FCCC are both central institutions in the international handling of the climate change issue. How these institutions frame and define the climate change issue is decisive for the action taken in response. The aim of this thesis was to analyze and describe how the climate change problem is framed and defined within the FCCC and the IPCC. Furthermore, the aim was also to examine if there are any differences between the IPCC’s and the FCCC’s framings and definitions of the climate change problem, and if so, what those differences consist of. The analysis was based on a line of documents from the IPCC and the FCCC, which were analyzed through a qualitative textual analysis. The results of the analysis indicate that there are both similarities and dissimilarities between the institutions. The definitions of the term climate change differ in the sense that the FCCC only regards human-induced changes in climate, as climate change. The IPCC, on the other hand, includes both natural variability and human-induced changes in its definition of climate change. In the practical usage the definitions are similar, and the results indicate that the IPCC in practice has adopted the FCCC’s definition and only focuses on anthropogenic climate change. The climate change issue is by both of the institutions perceived as a greenhouse gas question, and the consequences are described as very extensive and serious. The FCCC gives advantages to mitigative responses in relation to adaptive, and also the IPCC describes mitigative responses as advantageous. Finally, the study indicates that there is a linking between the scientific and political spheres, which is extended by the fact that the FCCC’s definition of climate change creates a demand for scientific input in the decision-making process. The science and policy relationship builds upon mutual expectations of what the respective spheres can contribute with in terms of useful knowledge and policy-relevant questions.
36

"MudanÃa ClimÃtica no Nordeste do Brasil, AmazÃnia e Bacia do Prata: AvaliaÃÃo dos Modelos do IPCC e CenÃrios para o SÃculo XXI". / "Climate Change in Northeastern Brazil, the Amazon and La Plata Basin: Evaluation of the IPCC models and scenarios for the XXI Century".

Yvonne Magdalena Campos LÃzaro 30 September 2011 (has links)
CoordenaÃÃo de AperfeiÃoamento de Pessoal de NÃvel Superior / Os modelos globais do CMPI3 para o quarto relatÃrio do Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4) sÃo avaliados para a regiÃo do Nordeste, AmazÃnia e bacia da Prata quanto à representaÃÃo da sazonalidade e da variabilidade plurianual da precipitaÃÃo para o perÃodo de 1901 a 1999. Essa avaliaÃÃo à realizada utilizando-se os dados do Climatic Research Unit (CRU) e a reanÃlise 20th Century Reanalysis V2 do National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Quanto à sazonalidade propÃe-se a criaÃÃo de um Ãndice de desempenho, baseado em medidas de correlaÃÃo e erro quadrÃtico mÃdio, para a avaliaÃÃo e classificaÃÃo dos modelos. Quanto à variabilidade plurianual, à aplicada a transformada de ondeletas aos dados observados, e em seguida as rodadas dos modelos sÃo avaliadas e classificadas baseadas em medidas de correlaÃÃo espectral e distÃncia euclidiana entre a variÃncia nas bandas existentes na sÃrie observada. Logo, os modelos sÃo classificados seguindo a avaliaÃÃo geral, sendo para o Nordeste o modelo CSIRO.MK3.0.RUN2, para a regiÃo da bacia da Prata o CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN2 e para a regiÃo AmazÃnica o GISS.MODEL.E.R.RUN6 os que melhor representaram a precipitaÃÃo no sÃculo XX. Para o cenÃrio A1B à feito um anÃlise de projeÃÃes sazonais e tendÃncias plurianuais dos modelos melhor colocados na avaliaÃÃo sazonal e geral de cada regiÃo. Quanto à projeÃÃo sazonal a anÃlise consiste no cÃlculo das anomalias de precipitaÃÃo em todos os modelos para os perÃodos 2010-2039, 2040-2069 e 2070-2099 em relaÃÃo ao cenÃrio de simulaÃÃes 20C3M durante o perÃodo 1901-1999. Quanto à tendÃncia plurianual para o perÃodo de 2010 a 2099, as precipitaÃÃes anuais sÃo padronizadas, com base nos parÃmetros do cenÃrio 20C3M. Logo à feita uma anÃlise de tendÃncias usando a mÃdia e mediana mÃvel de 10 anos, regressÃo linear, Mann Kendall Sen e Ondeletas. Na tendÃncia por ondeletas o modelo MRI.CGCM2.3.2A.RUN3, nÃo indica tendÃncia o GISS.MODEL.E.R.RUN2 indica uma tendÃncia de aumento a partir de 2030, o UKMO.HADCM3.RUN1 mostra uma tendÃncia de reduÃÃo atà 2050 na regiÃo do Nordeste. Na bacia da Prata o CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN2 indica tendÃncia de aumento ao longo do sÃculo XXI, o CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN1mostra aumento a partir de 2030 e o modelo NCAR.PCM1.RUN1 nÃo mostra nenhuma tendÃncia. Na AmazÃnia os modelos CSIRO.MK3.0.RUN1, CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN1, INGV.ECHAM4.RUN1 nÃo indicam nenhuma tendÃncia ao longo do sÃculo XXI. / The global models of CMPI3 to the fourth report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4) are evaluated for the Northeast Brazilian region, Amazon region and La Plata basin for the representation of seasonality and multiannual variability of precipitation for the period 1901 to 1999. This evaluation is performed using data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and the 20th Century Reanalysis V2 do National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). For the seasonality study is proposed to create a performance index based on measures of correlation and mean square error to the evaluation and model classification. For the multiannual variability, is applied the wavelet transform to the observed data, and then models are evaluated and ranked based on measures of spectral correlation and Euclidean distance between the observed variance and models variance in each band. Then, models are classified following the general classification, for the Northeast the CSIRO.MK3.0.RUN2 model; for La Plata basin the CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN2 model; for the Amazon region the GISS.MODEL.E.R.RUN6 model those which best represented the rainfall in the twentieth century. At A1B scenario, is made an analysis of seasonal forecast and multiannual trends of better placed models in the seasonal and general classification. For the seasonal projection, analysis consist in the anomalies precipitation calculations on all models for the periods 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099 during the period 1901- 1999. For the multiannual trends for the period 2010 to 2099, annual observed data are standardized, based on the parameters of the scenario 20C3M. Then is done an analysis with average moving, median moving of 10 years, regression linear, Mann Kendall Sen and Wavelet transform. In wavelets trends the MRI.CGCM2.3.2A.RUN3 model does not indicate trend, the GISS.MODEL.E.R.RUN2 model indicates an increasing trend from 2030, the UKMO.HADCM3.RUN1 model shows a declining trend by 2050 in the Northeast. In La Plata basin, the CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN2 indicates increasing trend throughout the twenty first century, the CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN1 shows an increase trend from 2030 and the NCAR.PCM1.RUN1 model shows no trend. In the Amazon region, the CSIRO.MK3.0.RUN1, CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN1, INGV.ECHAM4.RUN1 models do not indicate any trend over the twenty-first century.
37

Analysis of trends in policies and pathways for climate neutrality within the steel industry : A case study of powder metal company Höganäs AB

Westerberg, Anna, Mörlin, Emma January 2021 (has links)
To be in line with the Paris Agreement and mitigate average temperature rise to 1.5°C, and to a maximum of 2°C, greenhouse gas emissions will have to be reduced close to zero before mid-century. If these targets are to be reached, rapid and complete decarbonisation of every sector within the global economy is required. Currently, energy-intensive industrial sectors account for more than 30% of global energy use, and are responsible for approximately 50 % of global greenhouse gas emissions, whereas the iron and steel industries have the largest aggregated greenhouse gas emissions globally. Although the steel industry is at the cusp of major climate neutrality transitions, as recent studies have presented opportunities of producing completely fossil-free steel, decarbonising large-scale production processes is a complex query affected by a multitude of internal and external factors. Höganäs AB, as one of the largest powder metal manufacturers in Sweden, has initiated their work towards net-zero emissions in 2045. With production sites in over 18 countries, the company serves as an example of a company in the midst of turning a “hard-to-abate” industry towards being sustainable.  The aim of this study is thus to assess the effects of climate agendas and frameworks, such as the Paris Agreement and the IPCC Report on initiatives and policies on a global, national and regional level within countries where Höganäs AB has its major production facilities. The aim is further to review the effects of climate strategies and targets on the steel and powder metal industry, as well as to monitor the industry’s inclinations towards climate neutrality. The findings of the performed literature study, as well as the conducted qualitative interviews, resulted in a framework regarding how to identify and assess trends within the steel and powder metal industry based on two theoretical perspectives on corporate climate transitions. Through the results, it could be concluded that despite all countries having ratified the Paris Agreement as of January 2021, no country is currently on the path towards reaching the 1.5°C target that is recommended by the IPCC Report and the Paris Agreement. Still, there is a growing demand for low-carbon technology and renewable energy in every country, something that will partly weigh up for both up-scaled industrial production and countries’ increased GDP. Within the industry, an increased number of initiatives and commitments has been launched during the past few years, indicating that questions of climate change and sustainability are being entrenched in the corporate sector. Going forward, indicators to measure continuous improvements to reach net-zero are associated with emission- and energy data, value chain management and industry investments. As technological advancements towards hydrogen, electrification and digitalisation are being upscaled and increasingly tangible, climate neutrality in the PM and steel industry is achievable through a profound and intended climate focus and an increased sense of urgency.
38

The Play of Language in Ecological Policymaking

Jasak, Joan Marie January 2013 (has links)
What is the most effective problem solving method at the environmental policy table in the context of a radical diversity of worldviews? I answer the question in the dissertation by developing a theory that accommodates diversity in policymaking. My line of reasoning is as follows. In Chapter One, I survey the diverse discourse about Global Climate Models in detail. I demonstrate that a radical diversity of worldviews is expressed in the discourse. In Chapter Two, I advance a model of language that is an accurate foundation for discourse in policymaking. In Chapter Three, I consider the best policymaking strategy in view of the language model: idea-based policymaking. I then demonstrate that the policymaking strategy is weakly theorized. I introduce a theory of its operation at the end of Chapter Three, and develop it in detail in Chapters Four and Five. Because there is not currently a model, I consider an analogue model in play and explain the analogy in Chapter Four. I apply the analogue to the policy table in Chapter Five and fully develop an operational theory to explicate the problem solving method in policymaking. The force of the dissertation's contribution is made in Chapters Three to Five. Chapters One and Two are a ground of the argument. In Chapters Three to Five, I argue that idea-based policymaking is a promising form of policymaking practice because social learning is the operative problem-solving mechanism. In social learning: (1) the worldviews of the actors are leveraged in discourse and (2) power relations are dynamically distributed among actors (Hajer). The result is a fortified problem solving operation. This is because in (1) the heterogeneous problem solving resources of the group members are distributed and in (2) social learning shifts power relations by dislodging, mediating, and subsuming a new power regime. In summary, the dissertation is a contribution in applied philosophy. I comprehensively demonstrate that an effective policymaking method will manage the incommensurability of worldview and stipulate a problem solving method that engages the basic condition of policymaking--radical diversity--rather than denies it. / Philosophy
39

A efetividade do regime internacional da mudança climática: a contribuição dos governos locais. / The effectiveness of the internacional climate change regime: Subnational government contriibution

Maluf Filho, Adalberto Felicio 14 June 2012 (has links)
A partir dos conceitos de regime internacional e de governança global, busca-se compreender a influência dos governos subnacionais no âmbito das negociações multilaterais intergovernamentais, no que diz respeito à efetividade do regime internacional da mudança climática. O indicador de influência foi desenvolvido levando em consideração a criação e implementação das agendas políticas domésticas. Dessa forma, destacam-se as grandes cidades como atores subnacionais públicos, reunidas nas Redes de Cidades líderes contra as mudanças climáticas, entre elas a Rede C40. A transformação de atores públicos locais em agentes de mudança no âmbito transnacional, por meio da constituição de uma rede, abre novas perspectivas teóricas para a discussão acerca do papel de atores subnacionais nas Relações Internacionais, o que deve repercutir sobre o debate a respeito das abordagens teóricas nas subáreas de regimes e de governança global. / Following the conceptual framework of global governance and international regimes, we tried to demonstrate the relevance of subnational governments towards the conclusion of the international negotiations and the effectiveness of the international regime on climate change. This influence can be measured by their role in the domestic agenda setting, in the decision-making process and in the implementation of public policies, as well as in the increase in cooperation agreements with non-state actors. The Climate Leadership Group, the C40 network, gathering the largest cities in the world, have become an important international player, transforming itself into a new transnational actor in the Climate Change arena, which is going to have a influence on scholars of international regimes and global governance.
40

Soil carbon balance in long-term no-till in a sub-tropical environment

Gonçalves, Daniel Ruiz Potma 18 April 2018 (has links)
Submitted by Angela Maria de Oliveira (amolivei@uepg.br) on 2018-06-05T17:14:26Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 811 bytes, checksum: e39d27027a6cc9cb039ad269a5db8e34 (MD5) Daniel Ruiz Potma.pdf: 3450096 bytes, checksum: 03d21d00bc051ccb6c35ac3df1c5fe14 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-06-05T17:14:26Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 811 bytes, checksum: e39d27027a6cc9cb039ad269a5db8e34 (MD5) Daniel Ruiz Potma.pdf: 3450096 bytes, checksum: 03d21d00bc051ccb6c35ac3df1c5fe14 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-04-18 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Solos podem ser uma fonte ou um dreno de CO2 atmosférico, dependendo do seu sistema de manejo. Atualmente, o uso do solo e mudança de uso do solo emitem 1,3 ± 0,5 Pg C ano-1, equivalente a 8% das emissões globais. Técnicas como a agricultura de baixa emissão de C têm sido desenvolvidas para sequestrar C nos solos e reduzir a emissão de gases do efeito estufa. Porém, além dos desafios políticos e sociais envolvendo a doção destes sistemas, ainda há muita incerteza sobre o seu real potencial de mitigação. Assim, os objetivos desse estudo foram: i) Quantificar as fontes históricas e atuais de emissão de gases do efeito estufa na região dos Campos Gerais do Paraná, Brasil; ii) quantificar o potencial das melhores práticas de manejo agrícola baseadas nos três pilares da agricultura de conservação: Solo permanentemente coberto, plantio direto e rotação de culturas, em longo prazo (30 anos) para sequestrar carbono no solo, utilizando a fazenda Paiquerê (localizada na região dos Campos Gerais) como um modelo de sucesso; iii) estimar o impacto da adoção das melhores práticas de manejo nas áreas agrícolas da região e globalmente onde adequadas pelos próximos 100 anos utilizando os modelos Century e Roth-C. As fontes de gases do efeito estufa foram apresentadas como um inventário e mostraram que as emissões históricas (1930 – 2017) foram 412,18 Tg C, no qual as mudanças de uso do solo contribuíram com 91% (376,2±130 Tg C). As florestas sequestraram 51.7 ± 23.9 Tg C em 0.6 Mha em 47 anos (1.8 Tg C Mha-1 ano-1) e o plantio direto sequestrou 30.4 ± 23.9 Tg C em 1.9 Mha em 32 anos (0.5 Tg C Mha-1 ano-1). Ambos os modelos tiveram uma boa performance e o modelo Century foi mais eficiente em simular os estoques de carbono do solo, o resíduo médio da simulação foi 10 Mg C ha−1 (13%) para n = 91. O resíduo do modelo aumentou com a quantidade de óxidos no solo, sugerindo que a inclusão do controle mineralógico pode reduzir o viés de simulação. As predições do Century mostraram que o sistema tem potencial para mitigar 13 anos de emissões regionais (330 Tg C em 100 anos) ou 105 anos de emissões do setor agricultura, floresta e pecuária (40 Tg em 100 anos) na região. Da mesma forma, globalmente o sistema apresenta um potencial para sequestrar 2,5 ± 0.02 Pg C na profundidade 0–20 cm e 11,7 ± 3 Pg C na profundidade 0-100 cm em 86 milhões de ha distribuídos por todo o mundo. Este valor é equivalente à 11% das emissões globais dos setores agricultura, floresta e pecuária e mudanças de uso do solo. Assim, a nossa metodologia possa ser utilizada como um modelo para divulgar o potencial da agricultura conservacionista em sequestrar C nos solos e suportar políticas públicas que visem à mitigação das emissões de gases do efeito estufa. / Soils can be a source or sink of atmospheric CO2, according to land use and management. Currently the land use and land use change (LULUC) emits 1.3 ± 0.5 Pg carbon (C) year-1, equivalent to 8% of the global annual emission. Techniques such as low carbon agriculture, has been developed to sequester C in soils and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, besides political and social challenges for the system adoption, there’s still great uncertainty related to its real mitigation potential. This study aimed: i) Quantify the historical and current main sources of GHG emissions for Campos Gerais region in Paraná state, Brazil; ii) quantify the potential of long term (30 years) agricultural best management practices, based on the three pillars of conservative agriculture: permanent soil cover, crop rotation and no-till, to sequester C in soils, using Paiquerê farm (located in Campos Gerais region) as a successful model; iii) estimate the impact of best management practices adoption in the region croplands and globally for the next 100 years where is suitable using Century and Roth-C models. The GHG emission sources were presented as an inventory and showed that historical (1930 – 2017) GHG emissions in the region was 412.18 Tg C, in which LULUC contributes 91% (376.2±130 Tg C). Forestry sequestered 51.7 ± 23.9 Tg C in 0.6 Mha in 47 years (1.8 Tg C Mha-1 year-1) and no-till sequestered 30.4 ± 23.9 Tg C in 1.9 Mha in 32 years (0.5 Tg C Mha-1 year-1). Both models performed well, and Century was more efficient for simulate the SOC stocks, the mean residue was 10 Mg C ha−1 (13%) for n = 91. The model residue increased along with the oxides content in the soil clay fraction, suggesting that mineralogical control inclusion can reduce the model simulation bias. Century predictions showed that the system currently practiced at Paiquerê farm have the potential to mitigate 13 years of regional total emissions (330 Tg C in 100 years) or 105 years of agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector emissions (40 Tg in 100 years) in the region. In the same way, it has the potential to sequester 2.5±0.02 Pg C at 0-20 cm and 11.7±3 Pg C at 0-100 cm soil depth in 86 million ha globally. This is equivalent to 11% of global annual emissions from LULUC sector. In this way, our methodology can be used as a model to access the potential of conservation agriculture to sequester C and support public policies aiming to mitigate GHG emissions.

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