This thesis addresses a series of questions related to the problem of achieving reliable and physically consistent representations of aerosol-cloud interaction in global circulation models (GCM). In-situ data and modeling tools are used to develop and evaluate novel parameterization schemes for the process of aerosol activation for applications in GCM simulations. Atmospheric models of different complexity were utilized, ranging from detailed Lagrangian parcel model simulations of the condensational growth of droplets, to one-dimensional single column model with aerosol and cloud microphysics, and finally GCM simulations performed with the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). A scheme for mapping the sub-grid scale variability of cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNC) to a number of microphysical process rates in a GCM was tested, finding that neglecting this impact can have substantial influences in the integrated cloud properties. A comprehensive comparison and evaluation of two widely used, physically-based activation parameterizations was performed in the framework of CAM5.1. This was achieved by utilizing a numerical adjoint sensitivity approach to comprehensively investigate their response under the wide range of aerosol and dynamical conditions encountered in GCM simulations. As a result of this, the specific variables responsible for the observed differences in the physical response across parameterizations are encountered, leading to further parameterization improvement.

Long-duration records are necessary to understand and assess the long-term dynamics of natural systems. The purpose of this research was to use dendrochronologic modelling to construct proxy histories of hydroclimatic conditions and Pacific salmon abundance in west central British Columbia. A multi-species regional network of tree ring-width and ring-density measurements was established from new and archived tree-ring chronologies. These chronologies were then used in multivariate linear regression models to construct proxy records of nival river discharge, summer temperature, end-of-winter snow-water equivalent (SWE), the winter Pacific North America pattern (PNA) and Pacific salmon abundance. All proxy hydroclimate records provide information back to 1660 AD. Reconstructions of July-August mean runoff for the Skeena and Atnarko rivers describe below average conditions during the early- to mid-1700s and parts of the early-, mid- and late-1900s. Models describe intervals of above average river discharge during the late-1600s, the early-1700s and 1800s, and parts of the early- and mid-1900s. Fluctuations in proxy reconstructions of July-August mean temperature for Wistaria and Tatlayoko Lake, May 1 SWE at Mount Cronin and Tatlayoko Lake and October-February PNA occurred in near synchrony with the shifts described in runoff records. Episodes of above average runoff were typically associated with periods of enhanced end-of-winter SWE, below average summer temperature and positive winter PNA. A history of Pacific salmon abundance was reconstructed for four species of salmon (chinook, sockeye, chum and pink) that migrate to coastal watersheds of west central British Columbia. Proxy records vary in length and extend from 1400 AD, 1536 AD and 1638 AD to present. Salmon abundance reconstructions varied throughout the past six centuries and described significant collapse in population levels during the early-1400s, the late-1500s, the mid-1600s, the early-1700s, the early-1800s and parts of the 1900s. Wavelet analyses of reconstructed hydroclimate and salmon population records revealed low- and high-frequency cycles in the data. Correlation analyses related reconstructions to atmospheric teleconnection indices describing variability in North Pacific sea surface temperatures and the Aleutian Low pressure centre. To a lesser degree, relationships were also established between reconstructions and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Results thus confirm the long-term influence of large-scale ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns on hydroclimate and Pacific salmon abundance in west central British Columbia. The reconstructions introduced in this thesis provide insights about the long-term dynamics of the west central British Columbia environment. Several reconstructions presented in this thesis provide novel contributions to dendrohydroclimatic and paleoecologic research in Pacific North America. Proxy runoff records for the Skeena and Atnarko rivers are the first to be constructed for nival-regime basins in British Columbia. The models of Skeena River runoff and Mount Cronin SWE are additionally the first reconstructions of runoff and snowpack in Pacific North America based on a ring-density chronology, demonstrating the significant contribution that wood density measurements can make to dendrohydroclimate research. The models of Pacific salmon stocks are the first to utilize climate-sensitive tree-ring records to construct a history of regional salmon abundance and thus represent a significant advancement to paleoecological modelling. / Graduate

The objective of this work is to analyze from the of Dynamics and thermodynamics viewpoint one of the various Cyclonic Vortex of Upper Air (CVUA) that were observed over the Northeast Brazil (NEB) and Amazonia during January, 2002. NCEP´s reanalyzes data (u and v wind components, geopotential height, specific humidity, omega motion and temperature) plus satellite data were used to infer some characteristic properties of the CVUA. All the fields refer to 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC and cover the 12 standard isobaric levels (1000, 925, 850, 700, 600, 500, 400, 300, 250, 200, 150 e 100hPa), together with their daily averages. Satellite imagery in the visible as well as infrared and water vapor channels were used to validate the results of the analyzes; in particular TRMM satellite that furnished the precipitation data along the edge of the CVUA. The analyses of the upper air streamlines fields show that the genesis of CVUA was due to the presence of an InterHemispheric Bifurcation over the western coast of Africa (AIB) and a pair of anticyclones, namely the Bolivian High (BH) and the Angolan High. During its life cycle, the studied CVUA show a quite remarkable behavior with a varying translation speed and its persistent zonal trajectory probably because the existing vortical systems in its neighborhood. The technique of using relatively unemployed variables such as the thermodynamic functions q dot , apparent heating and moisture sources ( q1 and q2) were very useful tools as well as the vertical sections of the secondary circulation that showed a clear link between upper and lower level systems, mainly regarding the convective activity in the peripheral of the CVUA. As part of the results, it is mentioned the potentiality of the used tools to infer the depth, width and intensity of this large scale vertical system, the processes of energy conversion implied in the secondary circulation and its associated precipitation pattern. / Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar no ponto de vista dinâmico e termodinâmico, um dos vários Vórtices Ciclônicos de Altos Níveis (VCAN) que foram observados sobre o Nordeste Brasileiro do Brasil (NEB), durante o mês de janeiro, 2002. Dados de reanálises do NCEP (Componentes u e v do vento, Altura Geopotencial, Umidade Especifica, Omega (velocidade vertical) e Temperatura) mais dados de satélites usados para inferir algumas propriedades características do VCAN. Todos os campos foram obtidos nos horários de 00, 06, 12 e 18 UTC (Z) dividido em 12 níveis padrão isobárico da atmosfera (1000, 925, 850, 700, 600, 500, 400, 300, 250, 200, 150 e 100hPa), juntamente com suas médias diárias. Imagens de Satélite no canal infravermelho e vapor d água foram usados para validar os resultados das análises; em particular o satélite TRMM que forneceu dados da precipitação estimada ao longo da borda do VCAN. As análises do campo das linhas de correntes de ar superior mostraram que a gênesis do VCAN ocorreu pelo fato da presença de uma Bifurcação Interhemisférica, escoamento sobre a costa oeste da África (BIAF), e a presença do par de anticiclones, conhecido como Alta da Bolívia (AB) e a Alta de Angola (AAN). Durante sua vida, o VCAN estudado mostrou uma variação na sua velocidade e trajetória zonal persistente, provavelmente, por causa dos sistemas vorticais presentes em sua vizinhança. A técnica de usar variáveis relativamente empregadas na termodinâmica, tais como a função q ponto, as fontes aparentes de calor e umidade (q1 e q2), foram ferramentas úteis, bem como as seções verticais e a circulação secundária que mostrou uma ligação entre os sistemas de altos e baixos níveis, principalmente a respeito das atividades convectivas na periferia do VCAN. Como conclusão, a trajetória do VCAN foi determinada pelo posicionamento de outros sistemas vorticais nas suas adjacências. As ferramentas dinâmicas e termodinâmicas determinaram à identificação, profundidade e largura do VCAN. Importante também foi a circulação secundária em conjunto com omega para determinação da conversão de energia cinética e potencial. E por fim, concluí-se que o VCAN foi do tipo raso, ou seja, sem muita precipitação significante na sua periferia.

Um modelo oceânico de 1 ½ camadas é desenvolvido e acoplado ao modelo atmosférico tridimensional de meso escala TVM-NH, com a finalidade de estudar a interação entre a circulação atmosférica e o fenômeno de ressurgência costeira na região de Cabo Frio (RJ Brasil). A condição de contorno do modelo oceânico foi testada e provou ser pouco reflexiva. O modelo oceânico demonstrou ser capaz de representar a distribuição espacial e evolução temporal da temperatura da superfície do mar na região de estudo. O modelo acoplado foi então utilizado para estudar a influência conjunta entre a ressurgência costeira e a circulação de brisa marítima. Verificou-se que a brisa marítima intensifica a ressurgência, mas a ressurgência não intensifica a brisa marítima e, portanto, não foi verificada a retroalimentação positiva entre os dois fenômenos. Resultados mostraram que a cobertura do solo não tem influência significativa na circulação atmosférica da região, porém a topografia é fator determinante dos padrões de circulação atmosférica e é a causadora dos jatos de baixos níveis encontrados na região, devendo ser considerada em estudos sobre as circulações atmosférica e oceânica da região. Com ventos predominantes de NE, a topografia acelera o vento em superfície, intensificando indiretamente o fenômeno de ressurgência costeira, e o ar marinho penetra no continente, aumentando a estabilidade estática da atmosfera. Com ventos predominantes de SW, o padrão de ressurgência é interrompido, aumentando a temperatura da superfície do mar, transportando ar continental sobre o oceano e diminuindo a estabilidade da atmosfera. No período de inverno, na situação de interrupção do padrão de ressurgência, a atmosfera é menos estável, principalmente sobre o oceano, e somente nessa situação é observada a presença de brisa terrestre. As correntes oceânicas em superfície, na situação com ressurgência, têm direção principal de nordeste, e, na situação sem ressurgência, têm direção principal de sudeste. O acoplamento dos modelos foi um importante instrumento para o estudo das características da camada limite atmosférica da região de Cabo Frio, pois, nessa região, a circulação atmosférica, a topografia, a circulação oceânica e a evolução espacial e temporal da temperatura da superfície do mar estão fortemente inter-relacionadas. / A 1½-layer oceanic model is developed and coupled to the three-dimensional mesoscale atmospheric model, TVM-NH, to study the interaction between the atmospheric circulation and the coastal upwelling phenomenon at the Cabo Frio area (RJ Brazil). The boundary condition of the oceanic model was tested and it proved to be weakly reflective. The ocean model has been shown to represent the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of the sea surface temperature in the region of study. The coupled model was then used to study the combined influence of coastal upwelling and sea breeze circulation and it was found that the sea breeze intensifies the upwelling, but the upwelling does not enhance the sea breeze. Therefore, it was not found a positive feedback between coastal upwelling and sea breeze. Results showed that the soil cover has no significant influence on the atmospheric circulation in the region, but the topography plays an important role on the pattern of the atmospheric circulation. The topography is the cause of the low level jets found in the area and, therefore, it should be considered in studies of atmospheric and oceanic circulations. With NE prevailing winds, the topography accelerates the surface winds, indirectly intensifying the coastal upwelling phenomenon, and the marine air penetrates over the continent, increasing the static stability of the atmosphere. With SW prevailing winds, the upwelling pattern is disrupted, increasing the sea surface temperature, transporting continental air over the ocean and increasing the instability of the atmosphere. During winter, when the upwelling pattern is disrupted, the atmosphere is less stable, especially over the ocean, and only in this situation it is observed the presence of land-breeze circulation. The surface ocean currents, during upwelling, are mainly from NE direction and, without upwelling, are mainly from SE direction. The coupled model was an important tool for studying the characteristics of the atmospheric boundary layer in the region of Cabo Frio, because, in this region, the atmospheric circulation, topography, ocean circulation and the spatial and temporal evolution of the sea surface temperature are strongly interrelated.

Abstract In northern regions such as Finland, snowpack represents a major water resource for aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems and different human uses, and snowmelt usually controls peak annual river discharge. To understand potential impacts of climate change, this thesis explored the effects of changes in surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation patterns on snowpack accumulation and snowmelt processes in Finland. Two initial studies provided national and spatial pictures of long-term variability and changes in observed SAT and precipitation in Finland and their relationships with the atmospheric circulation patterns (ACPs) of the Northern Hemisphere (NH). On national scale, mean annual SAT and annual precipitation increased significantly in Finland during the past century. Seasonal analysis revealed increases in spring (MAM) and summer (JJA) SAT and in winter (DJF) and summer precipitation. SAT and precipitation were most significantly correlated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO), East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR), East Atlantic (EA) and Scandinavia (SCA) patterns. However, there were spatial differences within Finland as regards climate trends and relationships with ACPs. A study examining the dependence of snow resources on winter climate in Finland revealed a decline in snow water equivalent (SWE) and shortening of continuous snow cover duration (CSCD) in Finland during 1909-2008. This was mainly due to reductions in snowfall owing to winter warming and decreased precipitation in southern areas, but only to decreases in winter precipitation at higher latitudes. In southern Finland SWE and CSCD were associated with ACP affecting winter SAT (AO), and in central and northern parts with ACPs influencing winter precipitation (EA, EA/WR and AO). Analysis of snowmelt hydrology in Finland indicated that snowmelt flux has a much greater influence than rainfall on simulated peak snowpack outflow in Finland, which has decreased and shifted towards earlier in the year. / Tiivistelmä Pohjoisilla alueilla kuten Suomessa lumi edustaa merkittävää vesivarantoa mikä vaikuttaa vesi- ja maaekosysteemeihin sekä yhdyskuntien vesienkäyttöön. Lisäksi lumen sulanta aiheuttaa suurimmat vuosittaiset tulvahuiput. Tämä väitöstutkimus keskittyy ilmanlämpötilan ja sadannan muutoksien aiheuttamiin vaikutuksiin lumen kertymisessä ja lumen sulannan prosesseissa Suomessa, jotta ilmaston muutoksen aiheuttamia mahdollisia muutoksia voidaan paremmin ymmärtää. Väitöskirjan kaksi tutkimusta antavat kansallisen ja spatiaalisesti kattavan kuvan pitkäaikaisvaihtelusta ja muutoksista ilmanlämpötilassa ja sadannassa Suomessa ja niiden yhteyden ilmastojärjestelmiin (ACP) pohjoisella pallonpuoliskolla. Kansallisella tasolla, vuosittainen keski-ilmanlämpötila ja vuosisadanta lisääntyivät merkittävästä Suomessa viimeisen vuosisadan aikana. Kausittainen analyysi paljasti kevät ja kesä ilmanlämpötilojen sekä talvi ja kesä-sadantojen lisääntyneen. Ilmanlämpötila ja sadanta korreloi merkittävimmin Arktisen (AO), Itä Atlantti/Länsi Venäjä (EA/WR), Itä-Atlantti (EA) ja Skandinaavisen (SCA) oskillaatioiden kanssa. Eri puolilla Suomea tuloksissa oli spatiaalista eroa liittyen ilmasto trendeihin ja yhteyksiin ilmakehän kiertoliikkeisiin. Tässä tutkimuksessa selvitettiin lisäksi lumivarojen riippuvuutta talviajan ilmastosta Suomessa. Vuosien 1909-2008 aineiston perusteella lumenvesiarvossa (SWE) havaittiin laskua sekä pysyvän lumipeitteen kestossa (CSCD) lyhenemistä. Etelässä tämä todettiin pääosin olevan seurausta talviajan lumisateiden vähentymisestä, jota vuorostaan selitti ilman lämpeneminen ja kokonaissademäärän pienentyminen. Pohjoisilla leveysasteilla ainoastaan talviaikaisen kokonaissademäärän pienentyminen selitti vähentyneitä lumivaroja. Tutkimuksessa Etelä-Suomen aineiston osalta tulokset SWE ja CSCD:ssa voitiin yhdistää muutoksiin talviseen SAT:hen (AO) vaikuttavissa ilmastojärjestelmissä (ACP). Keski- ja pohjoisosissa Suomea ilmastojärjestelmät (EA, EA/WR ja AO) vaikuttivat ainoastaan talviaikaiseen sadantaan. Aineiston perusteella voitiin myös todeta, että Suomessa kevätaikaisesta lumensulannasta johtuvaan valuntahuippuun vaikuttaa enemmän välitön lumen sulanta kuin sulannan aikana esiintynyt vesisade. Lumen sulannan huippuarvo havaittiin myös laskeneen sekä sen ajoittuminen aikaistuneen.

L'étude de la variabilité climatique dans les moyennes et hautes latitudes est très complexe, principalement en raison des nombreux mécanismes physiques mis en jeu. Cette variabilité climatique résulte de deux contributions majeures : la variabilité interne associée à des processus internes au système climatique et la variabilité forcée qui est liée aux forçages externes, qui peuvent être d'origine naturelle (comme le volcanisme, les aérosols naturels) ou anthropique (GES, aérosols anthropiques). Ces forçages externes jouent un rôle important sur le climat et sa variabilité. Le défi de la recherche climatique est de comprendre leurs effets sur le climat et leurs rôles face à la variabilité interne. Cette thèse a comme objectif une meilleure compréhension des rôles respectifs de la variabilité interne et des différents forçages externes sur la variabilité passée de la circulation atmosphérique dans les deux hémisphères et de l'activité synoptique associée, ainsi que de leur évolution pour le climat futur en utilisant des ré-analyses atmosphériques et des simulations issues du modèle de climat CNRM-CM5. Nous nous sommes intéressés dans un premier temps à l'étude des changements des modes annulaires dans les hémisphères nord et sud, appelés respectivement NAM (Northern Annular Mode) et SAM (Southern Annular Mode). Nous montrons que la tendance positive observée du SAM sur la période 1960-1990 en été austral est bien reproduite par le modèle. Cependant, celle-ci est reproduite lorsque la diminution d'ozone stratosphérique et l'augmentation des gaz à effet de serre sont toutes deux prescrites au modèle, alors que certaines études suggéraient qu'elle était principalement expliquée par la seule présence de l'ozone. Nous nous sommes ensuite focalisés sur les changements de circulation \linebreak atmosphérique dans l'hémisphère nord. Ceux-ci sont plus complexes que dans l'hémisphère sud. En effet, l'augmentation des GES provoque un réchauffement global différent suivant l'altitude : maximum dans la haute troposphère tropicale ainsi qu'aux hautes latitudes en surface. Ce dernier est en réalité expliqué par la fonte de la banquise Arctique. De nombreux processus physiques et de nombreuses rétroactions sont mis en jeu et rendent la compréhension des changements compliquée. Pour cela, nous avons mis en place un protocole expérimental avec le modèle couplé CNRM-CM5 pour séparer l'effet direct des GES (réchauffement de l'atmosphère) de l'effet indirect (fonte de la banquise Arctique et rétroaction sur l'atmosphère). Cette fonte est responsable de l'augmentation des flux de chaleur entre l'océan et l'atmosphère qui perturbe ensuite la circulation atmosphérique. Nous montrons que la diminution de glace de mer Arctique pourrait être à l'origine de la réponse barocline dans l'hémisphère nord. Enfin, la dernière partie de cette thèse a fait l'objet d'une étude plus spécifique, puisque l'on s'est intéressé aux évolutions passée et future des dépressions atmosphériques nord Atlantique. De nombreuses incertitudes persistent en raison de processus complexes mettant en jeu la vapeur d'eau, le gradient méridien de température et la stabilité statique. Nous retrouvons la réponse tripolaire dans le RCP8.5, mentionnée dans le 5\up{ème} rapport du GIEC, qui correspond à une diminution dans la partie sud du domaine Atlantique nord et la mer Méditerranée, une augmentation sur les îles Britanniques et la Scandinavie et une diminution à l'est du Groenland. Nous montrons que ce signal est peu robuste sur la période dite historique en raison de la forte variabilité interne associée aux systèmes dépressionnaires. / Climate variability in mid and high latitudes is very complex due to numerous physical mecanims implied. This climate variability can be decomposed into 2 components : the internal variability associated with internal processes and the forced variability linked to the external forcings which can be natutal (volcanism, natural aerosols) or anthropogenic (greenhouse gases, anthropogenic aerosols). These external forcings play a crucial role on the climate and its variability. The challenge in the climate research is to understand their effects on the climate and their roles relatively with the internal variability. The objective of this thesis is a better understanding of the respective roles of internal variability and forced variability on the past and future atmospheric circulation in both hemispheres characterized by the annular mode and the synoptic activity associated using atmospheric reanalysis and experiments performed with the coupled climate model CNRM-CM5. First, we focus on the annular mode changes in both hemispheres, named the NAM (Northern Annular Mode) and the SAM (Southern Annular Mode). We show that the observed positive trend of the SAM in the 1960s in austral summer is well reproduced by the climate model. However, contrarily to other studies which suggest that this positive trend can be explained by only stratospheric ozone depletion, it is reproduced in the CNRM-CM5 model when the ozone depletion and greenhouse gases (GHG) increase are both prescribed. Then, we investigate the changes in the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation. These are more complex than in the Southern Hemisphere. Indeed, the increase of GHG in the atmosphere causes a general global warming maximum in the tropical high troposphere and over the pole at the surface which is mainly explained by Arctic sea ice loss. So the understanding of the changes is very complex due to several physical processes and retroactions. Thus, we have conducted a protocol with the coupled climate model CNRM-CM5 in order to assess the respective role of Arctic sea ice loss and GHG increase. Arctic sea ice loss is reponsible for an increase in the heat flux between the atmosphere and the ocean which modify the atmospheric circulation. We show that Arctic sea ice loss can cause the baroclinic response in the Northern Hemisphere. Finally, the last part of the thesis is the study of past and future changes in the North Altantic storm-tracks. There are still sereval uncertainties because of the complex processes involving the water vapour, the meridional temperature gradient and the static stability. We find the tripolar response, already found by other studies, consisting of a significant decrease in the south of the basin and over the Mediterranean sea, a small increase over the British Isles, and a decrease east of the Greenland. We show that the signal in the historical period is not robust, due to large chaotic variability associated with storms.

The application of atmospheric circulation classifications in the interpretation of climate model outputs Mgr. Jan Stryhal Automated (computer-assisted) classifications of atmospheric circulation patterns (circulation classifications, for short) constitute a tool widely used in synoptic and dynamic climatology to study atmospheric circulation and its link to various atmospheric, environmental, and societal phenomena. The application of circulation classifications to output of dynamical models of the atmosphere has developed considerably since the pioneering studies about three decades ago, reflecting rapid development in statistics, computing technology, and-naturally-climatological research, increasingly more and more dependent on simulations of the atmosphere, facing the paradigm of anthropogenic climate change. An uncoordinated use of various statistical approaches to analyzing output of global climate models (GCM) or their various ensembles, and an arbitrary selection of circulation variables, spatial and temporal domains, and reference datasets, have contributed to a need for a comparative study, which would shed some light on the sensitivity of studies dealing with an intercomparison of circulation classifications in two datasets to subjective choices. The present thesis responds to this need...

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, 1982. / Microfiche copy available in Archives and Science. / Bibliography: leaves 159-163. / by Brian Bennett Reinhold. / Ph.D.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, 1982. / Microfiche copy available in Archives and Science / Bibliography: leaves 194-201. / by Amram Golombek. / Ph.D.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, 1982. / Microfiche copy available in Archives and Science. / Vita. / Bibliography: leaves 218-225. / by Randall M. Dole. / Ph.D.