This thesis describes the construction of a sea surface temperature (SST) dataset from Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) observations suitable for climate applications. The algorithms presented here are now used at ESA for reprocessing of historical ATSR data and will be the basis of the retrieval used on the forthcoming SLSTR instrument on ESA’s Sentinel-3 satellite. In order to ensure independence of ATSR SSTs from in situ measurements, the retrieval uses physics-based methods through the use of radiative transfer (RT) simulations. The RT simulations are based on the Reference ForwardModel line-by-line model linked to a new sea surface emissivity model which accounts for surface temperature, wind speed, viewing angle and salinity, and to a discrete ordinates scattering (DISORT) model to account for aerosol. An atmospheric profile dataset, based on full resolution ERA-40 numerical weather prediction (NWP) data, is defined and used as input to the RTmodel. Five atmospheric trace gases (N2O, CH4, HNO3, and CFC-11 and CFC-12) are identified as having temporal and geographical variability which have a significant (∼0.1K) impact on RT simulations. Several additional trace gases neglected in previous studies are included using fixed profiles contributing ∼0.04K to RT simulations. Comparison against ATSR-2 and AATSR observations indicates that RT model biases are reduced from 0.2–0.5K for previous studies to ∼0.1K. A new coefficient-based SST retrieval scheme is developed from the RT simulations. Coefficients are banded by total column water vapour (TCWV) from NWP analyses reducing simulated regional biases to <0.1K compared to ∼0.2K for global coefficients. An improved treatment of the instrument viewing geometry decreases simulated view-angle related biases from ∼0.1K to <0.005K for the day-time dual-view retrieval. To eliminate inter-algorithmbiases due to remaining RT model biases and uncertainty in the characterisation of the ATSR instruments the offset coefficient for each TCWV band is adjusted to match the results from a reference channel combination. As infrared radiometers are sensitive to the skin SST while in situ buoys measure SST at some depth below the surface an adjustment for the skin effect and diurnal stratification is included. The samemodel allows adjustment for the differing time of observation between ATSR-2 and AATSR to prevent the diurnal cycle being aliased into the final record. The RT simulations are harmonised between sensors using a double-difference technique eliminating discontinuities in the final SST record. Comparison against in situ drifting and tropical moored buoys shows the new SST dataset is of high quality. Systematic differences between ATSR retrieved SST and in situ drifters show zonal, regional, TCWV, and wind speed biases are less than 0.1K except for themost extreme cases (TCWV <5 kgm−2). The precision of ATSR retrieved SSTs is ∼0.15 K, lower than the precision ofmeasurement of the global ensemble of in situ drifting buoys. From 1995 onwards the ARC SSTs are stable with instability of less than 5mK year−1 to 95% confidence (demonstrated for tropical regions).

Tropical SST biases in climate models significantly impact the projection of US precipitation. To show how these biases affect US precipitation simulation, I conducted nudging and flux adjustment experiments using the CESM1. In the nudging experiments, observed SSTs were prescribed over the three tropical oceans, and were compared to the control model to assess the effects of tropical SST biases. For the flux adjustment experiments, climatological SST and momentum fluxes were nudged towards the observed climatology, allowing us to characterize the effects of SST biases on the future projections of precipitation. Results indicate SST biases significantly affect the simulation of US precipitation, with the Pacific having the greatest impact. While the impacts of biases in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean are not as big, they significantly modulate the Pacific influences. Analysis of projections with flux corrected SSTs reveal tropical SST-induced precipitation biases in the US will worsen under climate change.

No description available.

Subseasonal variability of tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature is thought to influence the active-break cycle of the Asian monsoon. There are several open questions related to the role of surface fluxes, large-scale ocean circulation and subsurface ocean processes in the subseasonal variability of upper ocean temperature. We present a unified study of the subseasonal (2-90 day) variability of surface heat flux and upper ocean temperature and salinity throughout the tropical Indian Ocean in all seasons. We focus on the relation between surface fluxes and ocean response using a new satellitebased daily heat flux. The role of ocean processes (advection, entrainment and mixing) in determining SST variability is diagnosed from the daily satellite SST. Before the onset of the summer monsoon, sea surface temperature (SST) of the north Indian Ocean warms to 30-32oC. Climatological mean mixed layer depth in spring (March-May) is 10-20 m, and net surface heat flux (Qnet) is 80-100 Wm 2 into the ocean. It has been suggested that observed spring SST warming is small mainly due to (a) penetrative flux of solar radiation through the base of the mixed layer (Qpen), (b) advective cooling by upper ocean currents and (c) entrainment of sub-mixed layer cool water. We estimate the role of the first two processes in SST evolution from a two-week ARMEX experiment in April-May 2005 in the the southeastern Arabian Sea. The upper ocean is stratified by salinity and temperature, and mixed layer depth is shallow (6 to 12 m). Current speed at 2 m depth is high even under light winds. Currents within the mixed layer are quite distinct from those at 25 m. On subseasonal scales, SST warming is followed by rapid cooling. The cooling occurs although the ocean gains heat at the surface - Qnet is about 105 Wm 2 in the warming phase, and 25 Wm 2 in the cooling phase; penetrative loss Qpen, is 80 Wm 2 and 70 Wm 2. In the warming phase, SST rises mainly due to heat absorbed within the mixed layer, i.e. Qnet minus Qpen; Qpen, reduces the rate of SST warming by a factor of three. In the second phase, SST cools rapidly because (a) Qpen, is larger than Qnet, and (b) advective cooling is _85 Wm 2. A calculation using time-averaged heat fluxes and mixed layer depth suggests that diurnal variability of fluxes and upper ocean stratification tends to warm SST on subseasonal time scale. Buoy and satellite data suggest that a typical premonsoon intraseasonal SST cooling event occurs under clear skies and weak winds, when the ocean is gaining heat. In this respect, premonsoon SST cooling in the north Indian ocean is different from that due to MJO or monsoon ISO. As a follow-up to ARMEX, we use a short dataset from a field campaign in the premonsoon north Bay of Bengal to study diurnal variability of SST. In addition to the standard meteorological and hydrographic parameters measured from shipborne instruments and buoy sensors, we obtained a two-hourly record of subsurface sunlight profiles. Heat fluxes are seen to drive the SST warming during the day while both advection and entrainment/mixing are important during the night. The simple heat balance based on heat flux shows that it drives the diurnal cycle of SST, though ocean processes contribute towards night time cooling; this has been confirmed using the Price-Weller-Pinkel mixing model forced by heat flux and wind stress. A similar analysis for mixed layer salinity revealed that the salt balance in the region is dominated by advection rather than freshwater flux or entrainment/mixing. Buoy and satellite data show pronounced subseasonal oscillations of sea surface temperature (SST) in the summertime north Indian Ocean. The SST oscillations are forced mainly by surface heat flux associated with the active-break cycle of the south Asian summer monsoon. The input of freshwater (FW) from summer rain and rivers to the Bay is large, but not much is known about subseasonal salinity variability. We use 2002-2007 observations from Argo floats with 5-day repeat cycle to study the subseasonal response of temperature and salinity to surface heat and freshwater flux in the central Bay of Bengal and central Arabian Sea. Estimates of surface heat and freshwater flux are based on daily satellite data sampled along the float trajectory. We find that intraseasonal variability (ISV) of mixed layer temperature is mainly a response to net surface heat flux minus penetrative radiation during the summer monsoon season. In winter and spring, however, temperature variability appears to be mainly due to ocean processes rather than local heat flux. Variability of mixed layer freshwater content is generally independent of local surface flux (precipitation minus evaporation) in all seasons. There are occasions when intense monsoon rainfall leads to local freshening, but these are rare. The large subseasonal fluctuations observed in FW appear to be due to advection, suggesting that freshwater from rivers and rain moves in eddies or filaments. We have developed a new daily satellite-based heat flux dataset for the tropical Indian Ocean (30oE 120oE; 30oS 30oN); satellite data include surface air temperature and relative humidity from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). On the seasonal scale (> 90 days) the flux compares reasonably well with climatologies and other daily data. On the subseasonal scale, our flux product has realistic behaviour relative to buoy data at validation sites. An important result is that ocean processes (advection, entrainment/detrainment, mixing at the base of the mixed layer) cool the tropical Indian Ocean SST by 8oC over the year. The largest contribution of ocean processes (_20oC SST cooling over the year) is in the western equatorial Indian Ocean. Ocean processes generally cool the upper ocean in all seasons and all regions, except in boreal winter, when they warm the north Indian Ocean. This is likely due to entrainment of warm sub-mixed layer water in regions of inversions. On subseasonal (2-90 days) scales, the contribution of air temperature and humidity to latent heat flux is roughly equal to the contribution from wind speed variability: Another interesting finding is that the contribution of air temperature and humidity increases away from the equator. One of the most important contributions of this thesis is the demonstration that tropical Indian Ocean SST has a coherent response to intraseasonal changes in heat flux associated with organised convection in the summer hemisphere. SST responds to flux in (i) the northeast Indian Ocean during May-October and (ii) the 15oS-5oN region during November-April. In the winter hemisphere and in regions with no organised convection, it is ocean processes and not fluxes which drive the subseasonal changes in SST. This result suggests that SST ISV feeds back to organise and sustain organised convection in the tropical atmosphere.

O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar a variabilidade climática espectral da temperatura da superfície do mar, TSM, global associada a oscilações de 1-12 meses, 1-2 anos, 2-4 anos, 4-8 anos e 8-12 anos, entre1854 e 2014, e, as possíveis relações com a variabilidade climática na América do Sul. A análise espectral da TSM foi obtida com a aplicação da técnica de ondeletas a dados mensais. Em termos globais, as bacias tropicais do Pacífico Norte e Sul apresentam os sinais mais intensos da variância de TSM, em todas as faixas espectrais consideradas, e, portanto, valores mais próximos da média global para os trópicos, indicando a importância do oceano Pacífico no clima global. Nesta ordem, as bacias do Pacífico Sul, Pacífico Norte, Atlântico Norte, Indico e Atlântico Sul apresentam valores decrescente de variância da TSM. A análise da tendência linear ao longo do período considerado mostra que, globalmente, fenômenos tropicais com oscilações nas escalas de frequências mais altas, 1-12 meses, 1-2 anos e 2-4 anos, têm apresentado decréscimo de energia e que fenômenos com oscilações nas escalas de frequências mais baixas, 4-8 e 8-12 anos, têm apresentado aumento de energia, o que sugere a troca de energia entre fenômenos de alta e baixa frequência . As oscilações de 2-4 anos e de 4-8 anos na região equatorial do Pacífico são as que apresentam os maiores valores de energia, em especial nas regiões de Ninõ1+2, Niño3, Niño3.4 e Niño4. Os resultados permitem verificar que eventos fortes de El Niño sempre estiveram associados a sinais intensos da variância de TSM nas faixas espectrais de 2-4 anos e 4-8 anos e que os eventos mais fracos de El Niño estiveram associados à faixa de oscilações mais rápidas, 1-2 anos. O início do aumento do valor da variância de TSM para oscilações de 2-4 anos e 4-8 anos na região equatorial do Pacífico apresenta, em todos os casos, antecedência significativa em relação à ocorrência de um evento de El Niño forte, indicando a possibilidade de usar este sinal como preditor da ocorrência de eventos quentes de ENOS. A associação entre a variabilidade da variância espectral de TSM e a variabilidade climática na América do Sul foi verificada com base nos dados precipitação do GPCC, dados de vento das reanálises I e II do NCEP-NCAR e da reanálise do JRA-55. A análise de ondeletas da TSM tropical para a faixa de oscilações de 4-8 anos possibilitou a divisão do período todo em fases distintas: fases positivas, 1948 a 1960 e 1982 a 2003 e fases negativas, 1961 a 1981 e 2004 a 2014. Observou-se que as fases positivas e negativas apresentam um padrão bipolar da precipitação entre as regiões nordeste e sudeste da América do Sul, o que está associado a anomalias contrárias da circulação atmosférica em altos e baixos níveis sobre a região central do continente, constituindo um resultado inédito na área de climatologia. As fases positivas da variância de TSM para oscilações de 4-8 anos estão associadas a anomalias negativas e positivas de precipitação, respectivamente, sobre as regiões nordeste e sudeste da América do Sul enquanto que as fases negativas estão associadas a padrões contrários. O padrão do 4º modo da Análise de Componentes Principais aplicada aos dados de vento em 200 hPa contribui para explicar fisicamente o padrão bipolar da precipitação observado no setor leste do continente na escala decadal, por meio da propagação de ondas de baixa frequência entre o Pacífico Sul e a América do Sul. / The aim of this study is to analyze the global SST spectral climate variability for 1-12 month, 1-2 year, 2-4 year, 4-8 year, and 8-12 year oscillations, in the period from 1854 to 2014, and the possible relations with the climatic variability in South America. The spectral analysis of SST was obtained with the application of the wavelet technique to the monthly data. In global terms, the North and South Pacific basins show the most intense signs of SST variance in all the spectral ranges considered, and therefore, values closer to the global average, indicating the importance of the Pacific Ocean in the global climate. Then, in order of importance, come the basins of the South Pacific, the North Pacific, the North Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and the South Atlantic. The analysis of the linear trend throughout the period considered shows that globally within the tropical range, phenomena with oscillations in the scales of higher frequencies, 1-12 months, 1-2 years, and 2-4 years, have decreased energy and that phenomena with oscillations at lower frequency scales, 4-8 and 8-12 years, have presented increased energy through the course of time, suggesting energy exchange between high frequency phenomena and low frequency phenomena. The 2-4 year and 4-8 year oscillations in the equatorial Pacific region are those with the highest energy values, especially in the Nin1 + 2, Niño3, Niño3.4 and Niño4 regions. It is also possible to verify that strong El Niño events have always been associated with intense SST variance signals in the 2-4 year and 4-8 year spectral bands, and the weaker El Niño events were associated with the 1-2 year spectral bands. The beginning of the increase in the SST variance value for 2-4 year and 4-8 year oscillations in the equatorial region of the Pacific presents, in all cases, significant antecedence in relation to the occurrence of a strong El Niño event, indicating the possibility of using this signal as a predictor of the occurrence of hot ENSO events. The association between SST spectral variance variability and climatic variability in South America was verified based on GPCC precipitation data and wind data from NCEP-NCAR I and II reanalyses and of the JRA-55 reanalysis. The analysis of tropical SST wavelets for the 4-8 year oscillation range allowed the division of the whole period into distinct phases: positive phases, 1948 to 1960 and 1982 to 2003; and negative phases, 1961 to 1981 and 2004 to 2014. It was observed that positive and negative phases present a bipolar precipitation pattern between the Northeast and Southeast regions of the AS, which is associated with anomalies of atmospheric circulation at high and low levels over the central region of the continent, which is an unprecedented result area of climatology. The positive phases of the SST variance for 4-8 year oscillations are associated with negative and positive precipitation anomalies respectively over the northeast and southeast regions of South America while the negative phases are associated with contrary precipitation patterns. The 4th mode pattern of the Principal Component Analysis applied to wind data at 200 hPa contributes to physically explaining the bipolar pattern of precipitation observed in the eastern sector of the continent on the decadal scale by propagating low frequency waves between the South Pacific and South America.

O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar a variabilidade climática espectral da temperatura da superfície do mar, TSM, global associada a oscilações de 1-12 meses, 1-2 anos, 2-4 anos, 4-8 anos e 8-12 anos, entre1854 e 2014, e, as possíveis relações com a variabilidade climática na América do Sul. A análise espectral da TSM foi obtida com a aplicação da técnica de ondeletas a dados mensais. Em termos globais, as bacias tropicais do Pacífico Norte e Sul apresentam os sinais mais intensos da variância de TSM, em todas as faixas espectrais consideradas, e, portanto, valores mais próximos da média global para os trópicos, indicando a importância do oceano Pacífico no clima global. Nesta ordem, as bacias do Pacífico Sul, Pacífico Norte, Atlântico Norte, Indico e Atlântico Sul apresentam valores decrescente de variância da TSM. A análise da tendência linear ao longo do período considerado mostra que, globalmente, fenômenos tropicais com oscilações nas escalas de frequências mais altas, 1-12 meses, 1-2 anos e 2-4 anos, têm apresentado decréscimo de energia e que fenômenos com oscilações nas escalas de frequências mais baixas, 4-8 e 8-12 anos, têm apresentado aumento de energia, o que sugere a troca de energia entre fenômenos de alta e baixa frequência . As oscilações de 2-4 anos e de 4-8 anos na região equatorial do Pacífico são as que apresentam os maiores valores de energia, em especial nas regiões de Ninõ1+2, Niño3, Niño3.4 e Niño4. Os resultados permitem verificar que eventos fortes de El Niño sempre estiveram associados a sinais intensos da variância de TSM nas faixas espectrais de 2-4 anos e 4-8 anos e que os eventos mais fracos de El Niño estiveram associados à faixa de oscilações mais rápidas, 1-2 anos. O início do aumento do valor da variância de TSM para oscilações de 2-4 anos e 4-8 anos na região equatorial do Pacífico apresenta, em todos os casos, antecedência significativa em relação à ocorrência de um evento de El Niño forte, indicando a possibilidade de usar este sinal como preditor da ocorrência de eventos quentes de ENOS. A associação entre a variabilidade da variância espectral de TSM e a variabilidade climática na América do Sul foi verificada com base nos dados precipitação do GPCC, dados de vento das reanálises I e II do NCEP-NCAR e da reanálise do JRA-55. A análise de ondeletas da TSM tropical para a faixa de oscilações de 4-8 anos possibilitou a divisão do período todo em fases distintas: fases positivas, 1948 a 1960 e 1982 a 2003 e fases negativas, 1961 a 1981 e 2004 a 2014. Observou-se que as fases positivas e negativas apresentam um padrão bipolar da precipitação entre as regiões nordeste e sudeste da América do Sul, o que está associado a anomalias contrárias da circulação atmosférica em altos e baixos níveis sobre a região central do continente, constituindo um resultado inédito na área de climatologia. As fases positivas da variância de TSM para oscilações de 4-8 anos estão associadas a anomalias negativas e positivas de precipitação, respectivamente, sobre as regiões nordeste e sudeste da América do Sul enquanto que as fases negativas estão associadas a padrões contrários. O padrão do 4º modo da Análise de Componentes Principais aplicada aos dados de vento em 200 hPa contribui para explicar fisicamente o padrão bipolar da precipitação observado no setor leste do continente na escala decadal, por meio da propagação de ondas de baixa frequência entre o Pacífico Sul e a América do Sul. / The aim of this study is to analyze the global SST spectral climate variability for 1-12 month, 1-2 year, 2-4 year, 4-8 year, and 8-12 year oscillations, in the period from 1854 to 2014, and the possible relations with the climatic variability in South America. The spectral analysis of SST was obtained with the application of the wavelet technique to the monthly data. In global terms, the North and South Pacific basins show the most intense signs of SST variance in all the spectral ranges considered, and therefore, values closer to the global average, indicating the importance of the Pacific Ocean in the global climate. Then, in order of importance, come the basins of the South Pacific, the North Pacific, the North Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and the South Atlantic. The analysis of the linear trend throughout the period considered shows that globally within the tropical range, phenomena with oscillations in the scales of higher frequencies, 1-12 months, 1-2 years, and 2-4 years, have decreased energy and that phenomena with oscillations at lower frequency scales, 4-8 and 8-12 years, have presented increased energy through the course of time, suggesting energy exchange between high frequency phenomena and low frequency phenomena. The 2-4 year and 4-8 year oscillations in the equatorial Pacific region are those with the highest energy values, especially in the Nin1 + 2, Niño3, Niño3.4 and Niño4 regions. It is also possible to verify that strong El Niño events have always been associated with intense SST variance signals in the 2-4 year and 4-8 year spectral bands, and the weaker El Niño events were associated with the 1-2 year spectral bands. The beginning of the increase in the SST variance value for 2-4 year and 4-8 year oscillations in the equatorial region of the Pacific presents, in all cases, significant antecedence in relation to the occurrence of a strong El Niño event, indicating the possibility of using this signal as a predictor of the occurrence of hot ENSO events. The association between SST spectral variance variability and climatic variability in South America was verified based on GPCC precipitation data and wind data from NCEP-NCAR I and II reanalyses and of the JRA-55 reanalysis. The analysis of tropical SST wavelets for the 4-8 year oscillation range allowed the division of the whole period into distinct phases: positive phases, 1948 to 1960 and 1982 to 2003; and negative phases, 1961 to 1981 and 2004 to 2014. It was observed that positive and negative phases present a bipolar precipitation pattern between the Northeast and Southeast regions of the AS, which is associated with anomalies of atmospheric circulation at high and low levels over the central region of the continent, which is an unprecedented result area of climatology. The positive phases of the SST variance for 4-8 year oscillations are associated with negative and positive precipitation anomalies respectively over the northeast and southeast regions of South America while the negative phases are associated with contrary precipitation patterns. The 4th mode pattern of the Principal Component Analysis applied to wind data at 200 hPa contributes to physically explaining the bipolar pattern of precipitation observed in the eastern sector of the continent on the decadal scale by propagating low frequency waves between the South Pacific and South America.

A variabilidade climática é um objeto característico da Geografia já que anomalias positivas ou negativas de seus elementos, principalmente precipitação e temperatura, podem afetar de forma significativa a vida da população atingida. Na presente pesquisa, a variabilidade da vazão na bacia amazônica brasileira para o período de 1976 a 2010 é estudada por meio de técnicas estatísticas, tais como correlação linear, regressão linear simples e múltipla, análise de agrupamento e análise de ondeletas. Campos de componentes atmosféricos são apresentados para a compreensão da circulação atmosférica anômala que leva a anomalias de vazão. O objetivo é compreender com mais profundidade possíveis associações entre a variabilidade da vazão fluvial e da temperatura da superfície do mar, TSM, em regiões oceânicas específicas, reconhecendo-se para isso o acoplamento oceano-atmosfera que modula a variabilidade climática global. Este estudo compreendeu o uso de dados de vazão e precipitação do sistema Hidroweb/ANA, dados de TSM, radiação de onda longa e vento do conjunto de dados da Reanálise I, do NCEP/NCAR, e dados de precipitação do Global Precipitation Climatology Project, GPCP. A maior parte das análises considerou o tratamento de dados na escala mensal. O estudo verificou que há variabilidade espacial para a resposta da correlação linear entre a TSM e a vazão na bacia amazônica brasileira, verificada em cada uma das sub-regiões homogêneas definidas para esta pesquisa. Diferenças espaciais também foram verificadas nos resultados dos testes para tendência linear, identificando-se um padrão de tendência positiva da vazão na parte norte da bacia amazônica brasileira, e, negativa na porção sul. Sugere-se que a tendência negativa na porção sul esteja, em parte, associada à expansão das áreas agrícolas e, portanto, à intensificação do desmatamento. Cada uma das sub-regiões apresentou padrões espaciais de correlação linear diferenciados com os oceanos, mas, de forma geral, verifica-se que os eventos ENOS são importantes na definição da variabilidade da bacia amazônica, sendo mais efetivos nas anomalias de vazão das sub-regiões Norte, Amazonas-Foz e Sul, enquanto que a variabilidade da temperatura da superfície do mar no Atlântico Tropical Norte está bem associada à variabilidade da vazão nas sub-regiões Central e Oeste. A análise dos campos atmosféricos médios para anos caracterizados por ENOS neutros permitiu identificar que a sub-região Oeste apresentou resultados de influência de processos climáticos regionais que influenciaram anomalias positivas e negativas de vazão. Desta forma, a hipótese da tese de que, observando-se as particularidades de associação entre a temperatura da superfície do mar e a vazão fluvial para cada sub-região amazônica seria possível elaborar um modelo estocástico de previsão mais adequado a cada sub-região, sendo cada um mais apropriado a cada subregião, exprimindo maior acurácia e significância estatística, foi confirmada. Cada uma das sub-regiões consideradas apresenta intervalos de tempo preferenciais em que a correlação com a superfície dos oceanos é máxima. Assim, conclui-se que a bacia amazônica não pode ser considerada como um todo quanto à análise climática, já que foram confirmadas variabilidades espaciais de tendência linear dos dados de vazão, correlação entre vazão e precipitação e correlação com anomalias da temperatura da superfície do mar. / Climate variability is a characteristic object of geography, as positive or negative anomalies of its elements, especially precipitation and temperature may significantly affect the lives of the population. In this research, the variability of flow in the Brazilian Amazon basin for the period 1976-2010 is studied through statistical techniques such as linear correlation, simple and multiple linear regression, cluster analysis and wavelet analysis. Fields of atmospheric components are presented for comprehending the anomalous atmospheric circulation which leads to flow abnormalities. The objective is to understand more deeply possible associations between the variability of river flow and sea surface temperature, SST, in specific ocean regions, in order to recognize ocean-atmosphere coupling that modulates the global climate variability. This study has encompassed the use of flow and precipitation data of Hidroweb system/ANA, SST data, longwave radiation and wind of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis I dataset, and precipitation data of Global Precipitation Climatology Project, GPCP. Most of the analyzes considered the treatment of data in the monthly scale. The study found that there is spatial variability to the response of the linear correlation between SST and the flow in the Brazilian Amazon basin seen in each one of the homogeneous subregions defined for this research. Spatial differences were also verified in the results of tests for linear trend, identifying a pattern of positive trend of the flow in the northern part of the Brazilian Amazon basin, and negative in the southern portion. It suggests that the negative trend in the southern portion is partly associated with the expansion of agricultural areas and therefore, the intensification of deforestation of forested areas. Each one of the subregions showed different spatial patterns of linear correlation with the oceans, but in general, ENSO events are important in defining the variability of the Amazon basin, being more effective in flow anomalies of North, Amazonas-Foz and South subregions, whereas the variability of sea surface temperature in the Tropical North Atlantic is well associated with the variability of flow in the Central and West subregions. The analysis of average atmospheric fields for years characterized by neutral ENSO was able to identify that the West subregion presented results of influence of regional climate processes which influenced anomalies of positive and negative flow. Thus, the hypothesis of the thesis that, by observing the association of the particularities between sea surface temperature and river flow for each Amazon subregion would be possible to develop a more appropriate stochastic model to each subregion, being each one more adequate to every subregion, expressing greater accuracy and statistical significance, was confirmed. Each one of the subregions considered presents preferential time intervals at which the correlation to the ocean surface is maximal. Therefore, it is concluded that the Amazon basin cannot be considered as a whole regarding its climate analysis, seeing that spatial variabilities of linear trend of flow data were confirmed, correlation between flow and precipitation and correlation with sea surface temperature anomalies.

I examined the hypothesis that high variability in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and ocean color are associated with higher coral cover and slower rates of decline of coral cover within the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS). Synoptic SST time series maps, covering the period 1994-2005, were constructed for the FKNMS with data collected using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite sensors. The SST data were compared with coral cover time series assessments at 36 sites conducted by the Coral Reef and Evaluation Monitoring Program (CREMP; 1996-2005), sponsored by the Environmental Protection Agency and the State of Florida. Out of the 36 stations, Smith Shoals routinely experienced very different and extreme environmental conditions relative to the rest of the stations, including extreme salinity, suspended sediments, and "black water" events that led to the death of coral reef organisms such as in 2002. Among the other 35 stations, sites that experienced moderately higher SST variability (mean variance > 6) relative to other sites showed a trend toward higher percentage coral cover (r=0.62, p=6.33x10-5, N=35) and relatively slower rates of decline (r=0.41, p=0.02, N=35) over the 12-year study period. The results suggest that coral reefs sites that are continuously exposed to high but not extreme variability in temperature may develop resilience against episodes of extreme cold or elevated SST. Variability of suspended sediments and water clarity were estimated using satellite-derived, normalized water-leaving radiance products. Ocean color data were obtained from the Sea-viewing Wide-Field-of View Sensor (Sea WiFS) from 1998 to 2005. Normalized water-leaving radiance at 443 (Lwn443) was used as a proxy to examine variability in water clarity, and normalized water-leaving radiance at 670 (Lwn670) was used as a proxy to study variability in suspended sediments. A weak relationship was identified between variability of Lwn443 and Lwn670 and coral cover as estimated by CREMP assessments in 2005 (r=0.43, p = 0.01, N=35 and r = 0.47, p = 0.005, N=35, respectively). There was a weak relationship between coral cover change and Lwn670 from 1988 to 2005 (r = 0.46, p = 0.05, N=35), but there no relationship was observed between variability of Lwn443 and change in coral cover (r =0.27, p =0.11, N=35). Further research is required to understand the origin, concentration and composition of dissolved or suspended materials that change the turbidity of waters around reefs of the FKNMS, and whether these changes can be adequately interpreted by examining concurrent satellite imagery. Ultimately, such remote sensing and field research is required to understand how water quality affects the health of coral reefs, and how coral ecosystems adapt to environmental variability.

A variabilidade climática é um objeto característico da Geografia já que anomalias positivas ou negativas de seus elementos, principalmente precipitação e temperatura, podem afetar de forma significativa a vida da população atingida. Na presente pesquisa, a variabilidade da vazão na bacia amazônica brasileira para o período de 1976 a 2010 é estudada por meio de técnicas estatísticas, tais como correlação linear, regressão linear simples e múltipla, análise de agrupamento e análise de ondeletas. Campos de componentes atmosféricos são apresentados para a compreensão da circulação atmosférica anômala que leva a anomalias de vazão. O objetivo é compreender com mais profundidade possíveis associações entre a variabilidade da vazão fluvial e da temperatura da superfície do mar, TSM, em regiões oceânicas específicas, reconhecendo-se para isso o acoplamento oceano-atmosfera que modula a variabilidade climática global. Este estudo compreendeu o uso de dados de vazão e precipitação do sistema Hidroweb/ANA, dados de TSM, radiação de onda longa e vento do conjunto de dados da Reanálise I, do NCEP/NCAR, e dados de precipitação do Global Precipitation Climatology Project, GPCP. A maior parte das análises considerou o tratamento de dados na escala mensal. O estudo verificou que há variabilidade espacial para a resposta da correlação linear entre a TSM e a vazão na bacia amazônica brasileira, verificada em cada uma das sub-regiões homogêneas definidas para esta pesquisa. Diferenças espaciais também foram verificadas nos resultados dos testes para tendência linear, identificando-se um padrão de tendência positiva da vazão na parte norte da bacia amazônica brasileira, e, negativa na porção sul. Sugere-se que a tendência negativa na porção sul esteja, em parte, associada à expansão das áreas agrícolas e, portanto, à intensificação do desmatamento. Cada uma das sub-regiões apresentou padrões espaciais de correlação linear diferenciados com os oceanos, mas, de forma geral, verifica-se que os eventos ENOS são importantes na definição da variabilidade da bacia amazônica, sendo mais efetivos nas anomalias de vazão das sub-regiões Norte, Amazonas-Foz e Sul, enquanto que a variabilidade da temperatura da superfície do mar no Atlântico Tropical Norte está bem associada à variabilidade da vazão nas sub-regiões Central e Oeste. A análise dos campos atmosféricos médios para anos caracterizados por ENOS neutros permitiu identificar que a sub-região Oeste apresentou resultados de influência de processos climáticos regionais que influenciaram anomalias positivas e negativas de vazão. Desta forma, a hipótese da tese de que, observando-se as particularidades de associação entre a temperatura da superfície do mar e a vazão fluvial para cada sub-região amazônica seria possível elaborar um modelo estocástico de previsão mais adequado a cada sub-região, sendo cada um mais apropriado a cada subregião, exprimindo maior acurácia e significância estatística, foi confirmada. Cada uma das sub-regiões consideradas apresenta intervalos de tempo preferenciais em que a correlação com a superfície dos oceanos é máxima. Assim, conclui-se que a bacia amazônica não pode ser considerada como um todo quanto à análise climática, já que foram confirmadas variabilidades espaciais de tendência linear dos dados de vazão, correlação entre vazão e precipitação e correlação com anomalias da temperatura da superfície do mar. / Climate variability is a characteristic object of geography, as positive or negative anomalies of its elements, especially precipitation and temperature may significantly affect the lives of the population. In this research, the variability of flow in the Brazilian Amazon basin for the period 1976-2010 is studied through statistical techniques such as linear correlation, simple and multiple linear regression, cluster analysis and wavelet analysis. Fields of atmospheric components are presented for comprehending the anomalous atmospheric circulation which leads to flow abnormalities. The objective is to understand more deeply possible associations between the variability of river flow and sea surface temperature, SST, in specific ocean regions, in order to recognize ocean-atmosphere coupling that modulates the global climate variability. This study has encompassed the use of flow and precipitation data of Hidroweb system/ANA, SST data, longwave radiation and wind of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis I dataset, and precipitation data of Global Precipitation Climatology Project, GPCP. Most of the analyzes considered the treatment of data in the monthly scale. The study found that there is spatial variability to the response of the linear correlation between SST and the flow in the Brazilian Amazon basin seen in each one of the homogeneous subregions defined for this research. Spatial differences were also verified in the results of tests for linear trend, identifying a pattern of positive trend of the flow in the northern part of the Brazilian Amazon basin, and negative in the southern portion. It suggests that the negative trend in the southern portion is partly associated with the expansion of agricultural areas and therefore, the intensification of deforestation of forested areas. Each one of the subregions showed different spatial patterns of linear correlation with the oceans, but in general, ENSO events are important in defining the variability of the Amazon basin, being more effective in flow anomalies of North, Amazonas-Foz and South subregions, whereas the variability of sea surface temperature in the Tropical North Atlantic is well associated with the variability of flow in the Central and West subregions. The analysis of average atmospheric fields for years characterized by neutral ENSO was able to identify that the West subregion presented results of influence of regional climate processes which influenced anomalies of positive and negative flow. Thus, the hypothesis of the thesis that, by observing the association of the particularities between sea surface temperature and river flow for each Amazon subregion would be possible to develop a more appropriate stochastic model to each subregion, being each one more adequate to every subregion, expressing greater accuracy and statistical significance, was confirmed. Each one of the subregions considered presents preferential time intervals at which the correlation to the ocean surface is maximal. Therefore, it is concluded that the Amazon basin cannot be considered as a whole regarding its climate analysis, seeing that spatial variabilities of linear trend of flow data were confirmed, correlation between flow and precipitation and correlation with sea surface temperature anomalies.

Satellite data have shown that east-west oriented cloud bands, known as Intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), propagate eastwards along the equator throughout the year and northwards during boreal summer on intraseasonal time scales. The northward propagations over Bay of Bengal have important connection with onset of south Asian monsoon and active-break cycles of the Indian monsoon. Some studies on mean structure of ITCZ have concluded that preferred location of ITCZ is governed by meridional variation of sea surface temperature (SST) while other studies have stressed the importance of heating in the free atmosphere. Studies on the migration of ITCZ have shown that northward migration of maximum convergence zone is due to generation of positive barotropic vorticity north of the convection in the boundary layer due to internal dynamics of the atmosphere. In the present study mean and transient structure of northward migration of ITCZ over Bay of Bengal is simulated with the help of a general circulation model (GCM). The mean ITCZ is found not to occur at SST maximum or SST gradient maxima. A new simple model for the mean state of ITCZ based on moisture budget, linear friction and hydrostatic assumption is proposed. It highlights the relative importance of SST and atmospheric effects in generation of maximum convergence. The large cancellation between the effect of SST on boundary layer and thermodynamic effects in free troposphere is shown to control convergence. The model also shows that latitude and time independent linear friction parameterization in a simple model is able to predict monthly mean location of ITCZ in a GCM. The results give a quantitative understanding about the relative role of surface effects and atmospheric effects in determining location of the mean ITCZ. A simple linear model for understanding the mechanism of instability that governs the northward migration of ITCZ is proposed. Vertical shear in mean winds couples the barotrpic and baroclinic modes in free troposphere in this model. The model is able to predict the correct scale with standard values of friction and diffusion parameters. The mechanism of instability is found to be due to internal dynamics of troposphere. It is shown that direction of propagation is decided by vertical shear in zonal as well as meridional mean winds. This is contrary to the previous studies which conclude that either vertical shear in zonal winds or vertical shear in meridional winds control the direction of propagation.