Made available in DSpace on 2014-08-20T14:25:45Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertacao_catia_cristina_braga_rodrigues.pdf: 1202246 bytes, checksum: 0067166e90de2215d4ec858dba3e1ba5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-04-18 / The periods of large variations in rainfall in the Mato Grosso do Sul State (centralwest region, Brazil), in particular the great floods or droughts, generate large economic losses to the state. The summer drought may further compromise the winter period, which often short rains occur. The main objective of this research is to verify bimonthly rainfall variation in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul during the summer (maximum variation) and the winter (minor variations) and their relationships with the bimonthly SST anomalies combined of the South Pacific and South Atlantic oceans. The combined anomalies were represented by Principal Oscillation Patterns (POPs), which represent the predominant patterns of ocean circulation. Monthly precipitation data from January to December (from 1981 to 2009) and monthly data of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) were used. From the rainfall climatology of the marking periods were selected two periods: December/January (rainier) and July/August (dry season). Homogeneous regions were generated by the K-means Method, three for December/January period and two for the July/August period. The regional accumulated rainfall presented no significant trend at 5% probability. The regional accumulated precipitation anomalies of two-month periods showed no significant correlations with SST anomalies in the Central Pacific (Niño 3.4) along the studied period. During the two months December/January, the largest excess precipitation in the region occurred with a predominance of strong El Nino events and droughts in major events La Niña and neutral. In regions 2 and 3 there is not a predominant sign of some events. During the July/ August period, the greatest excesses of precipitation occurred in the region with a predominance of La Niña events, with less relation respect region 2, both regions in a coherent signal (Neutral and La Niña). In cases of severe dry period, both regions have low relation with the events signals. The settings of multiple regressions of bi-monthly precipitation accumulated in homogeneous regions with the scores of the first six patterns of SST showed significant increase in both studied marking periods. The correlation coefficient between the bimonthly observed accumulated precipitation and regional estimates were significant at 1% probability in all regions. This occur especially in the region that represents the northwest quarter of the state in December/January and in the region that represents the major portion of Mato Grosso do Sul State in the July/August period. / Os períodos de grandes variações da precipitação no Mato Grosso do Sul, em especial as grandes cheias ou grandes estiagens, trazem grandes prejuízos financeiros ao Estado. As estiagens de verão podem comprometer ainda mais o período de inverno, no qual já é normal ocorrer poucas chuvas. Esta pesquisa tem por proposta principal verificar as variações bimensais da precipitação no estado de Mato Grosso do Sul nos períodos de verão (variações máximas) e inverno (variações mínimas) e suas relações com as anomalias bimensais de TSM combinadas dos oceanos Pacífico Sul e Atlântico Sul. As anomalias combinadas foram representadas pelos Padrões de Oscilação Principal (POP), os quais representam os padrões predominantes de circulação oceânica. Foram usados dados de precipitação mensal de janeiro a dezembro, período de 1981 a 2009 e dados médios mensais de Temperatura na Superfície do Mar (TSM). A partir da climatologia da precipitação foi selecionado os bimestres dezembro/janeiro (mais chuvoso) e julho/agosto (menos chuvoso) e geradas pelo método K-means regiões homogêneas, sendo três para o bimestre dezembro/janeiro e duas para o bimestre julho/agosto. As precipitações acumuladas regionais não apresentaram tendência temporal significativas a 5% de probabilidade. As anomalias de precipitação acumulada regionais dos bimestres não apresentaram correlações significativas com as anomalias de TSM na região do Pacífico Central (Niño 3.4) ao longo do período estudado, mas durante o bimestre dezembro/janeiro, os maiores excessos de precipitação da região 1 ocorreram com forte predomínio de eventos El Niño fortes e a maiores estiagens em Eventos La Niña e Neutros. Nas regiões 2 e 3 não existem um sinal predominante de alguns dos eventos. Durante o bimestre julho/agosto, os maiores excessos de precipitação ocorreram na região 1 com predomínio de eventos La Niña, com menor relação na região 2, mas ambas regiões com coerência do sinal (Neutro e La Niña). Nos casos de fortes estiagens, ambas as regiões apresentam baixa relação com os sinais dos eventos. Os ajustes das regressões múltiplas das precipitações acumuladas bimestrais nas regiões homogêneas com os escores dos seis primeiros padrões de TSM apresentaram aumento de significância em ambos bimestres estudados. O coeficiente de correlação entre as precipitações acumuladas regionais bimestrais observadas e estimadas foram significativas a 1% de probabilidade em todas as regiões, especialmente na região que representa o noroeste do Estado no bimestre dezembro/janeiro e a região que representa a maior parte do estado do Mato Grosso do Sul no bimestre julho/agosto.

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In this thesis we examine intra-seasonal oscillations (ISO) in the aqua-planet setup of the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) version 5.1, mainly based on July and January climatological sea surface temperature (SST). We investigate mainly two questions -what should be the SST distribution for the existence of (a) northward moving ISO in summer, and (b) eastward moving MJO-like modes in winter. In the first part of the thesis we discuss the northward propagation. A series of experiments were performed with zonally symmetric and asymmetric SST distributions. The basic lower boundary condition is specified from zonally averaged observed July and January SST. The zonally symmetric July SST experiment produced an inter tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) on both sides of the equator. Poleward movement is not clear, and it is confined to the region between the double ITCZ. In July, the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and West Pacific SST is high compared to the rest of the northern tropics. When we impose a zonally asymmetric SST structure with warm SST spanning about 80 of longitude, the model shows a monsoon-like circulation, and some northward propagating convective events. Analysis of these events shows that two adjacent cells with cyclonic and anticyclonic vorticity are created over the warm SST anomaly and to the west. The propagation occurs due to the convective region drawn north in the convergence zone between these vortices. Zonally propagating Madden-Julian oscillations (MJO) are discussed in the second part of the thesis. All the experiments in this part are based on the zonally symmetric SST. The zonally symmetric January SST configuration gives an MJO-like mode, with zonal wave number 1 and a period of 40-90 days. The SST structure has a nearly meridionally symmetric structure, with local SST maxima on either side of the equator, and a small dip in the equatorial region. If we replace this dip with an SST maximum, the time-scale of MJO becomes significantly smaller (20-40 days). The implication is that an SST maximum in the equatorial region reduces the strength of MJO, and a flat SST profile in the equatorial region is required for more energetic of MJO. This result was tested and found to be valid in a series of further experiments.

Exchange of mass (water vapor), momentum, and energy between atmosphere andocean has profound influence on weather and climate. This exchange takes place at the air-sea interface, which is part of the marine atmospheric boundary layer. Various empirical relations are being used for estimating these fluxes in numericalweather and climate models but their accuracies are not sufficiently verified or tested over the Indian Ocean. The main difficulty is that vast areas of open oceans are not easily accessible. The marine environment is very corrosive and unattended long term and accurate measurements are extremely expensive. India has research ships that spend most of their time over the seas around India but that opportunity is yet to be exploited. To address this, an air-sea flux measurement system for operation on board research ships was planned. The system was tested on board Indian Research Vessels ORV SagarKanya during its cruise SK-296 in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) in July-August 2012, and NIO ship Sindhu Sadhana in June-July 2016. The complete set included instruments for measuring wind velocity, windspeed and direction, air and water temperature, humidity, pressure, all components of radiation and rainfall. In addition, ship motion was recorded at required sampling rate to correct for wind velocity. The set up facilitates the direct computation of sensible and latent heat fluxes using the eddy covariance method. In this thesis, design and installation of meteorological and ship motion sensors onboard research ships, data collection and quality control, computation of fluxes of heat, moisture and momentum using eddy covariance method and their comparison with those derived from bulk method are described. A set of sensors (hereafter, flux measuring system) were mounted on a retractable boom, ~7 m long forward of the bow to minimize the flow disturbance caused by the ship superstructures. The wind observed in the ship frame was corrected for ship motion contaminations. During the CTCZ cruise period true mean wind speed was over 10 m/s and true wind direction was South/South-Westerly. True windspeedis computed combiningdata from the anemometer a compass connected to AWS and a GPS. Turbulent fluxes were computed from motion-corrected time-series of high frequency velocity, water vapor, and air temperature data. Covariance latent heat flux, sensible heat flux, and wind stress were obtained by cross-correlating the motion-corrected vertical velocity with fast humidity fluctuations measured with anIR hygrometer, temperate fluctuation from sonic anemometer and motion-corrected horizontal windfluctuations from sonic anemometer, respectively. During the first attempt made in July-August 2012 as part of a cruise of CTCZ monsoonresearch program, observations were mainly taken in the North Bay of Bengal. The mean air-temperature and surface pressure were ~28 Deg C and ~998 hPa, respectively. Relative humidity was ~80%. Average wind speed varied in the range 4-12 m/s. The mean latent heat flux was 145 W/m2 , sensible heat flux was ~3 W/m2 and average sea-air temperature difference was ~ 0.7°C. The Bay of Bengal boundary layer experiment (BoBBLE) was conducted during June-July 2016 and the NIO research ship Sindhu Sadhana was deployed. The same suite of sensors installed during CTCZ were used during BoBBLE. During daytime, peaks of hourly net heat fluxes (Qnet ) were around 600 Wm-2(positive if into the sea), whereas, night time values were around -250 W m-2. Sea surface temperature was always >28°C and maximum air temperature exceeded 29°C. During the experimental period the mean Qnet was around -24 Wm-2 from both eddy covariance and conventional bulk methods, but there are significant differences on individual days.The new flux system gives fluxes which are superior to what was available before.