In the first part of this dissertation we use an Intermediate Coupled Model to develop a quantitative test to validate the null hypothesis that low-frequency varia- tion of ENSO predictability may be caused by stochastic processes. Three "perfect model scenario" prediction experiments are carried out, where the model is forced ei- ther solely by stochastic forcing or additionally by decadal-varying backgrounds with different amplitudes. These experiments indicate that one can not simply reject the null hypothesis unless the decadal-varying backgrounds are unrealistically strong. The second part of this dissertation investigates the extent to which internal atmospheric variability (IAV) can influence ENSO variation, and examines the un- derlying physical mechanisms linking IAV to ENSO variability with the aid of a newly developed coupled model consisting of an atmospheric general circulation model and a Zebiak-Cane type of reduced gravity ocean model. A novel noise filter algorithm is developed to suppress IAV in the coupled model. A long control coupled simulation, where the filter is not employed, demonstrates that the coupled model captures many statistical properties of the observed ENSO behavior. It further shows that the development of El Ni~no is linked to a boreal spring phenomenon referred to as the Pacific Meridional Model (MM). The MM, character- ized by an anomalous north-south SST gradient and anomalous surface circulation in the northeasterly trade regime with maximum variance in boreal spring, is inherent to thermodynamic ocean-atmosphere coupling in the Intertropical Convergence Zone latitude. The Northern Pacific Oscillation provides one source of external forcing to excite it. This result supports the hypothesis that the MM works as a conduit for extratropical atmospheric influence on ENSO. A set of coupled simulations, where the filter is used to suppress IAV, indicate that reducing IAV in both wind stress and heat flux substantially weakens ENSO variance. Furthermore, the resultant ENSO cycle becomes more regular and no longer shows strong seasonal phase locking. The seasonal phase locking of ENSO is strongly tied to the IAV in surface heat flux. The ENSO cycle is strongly tied to IAV in surface wind stress.

Observations of Antarctic sea ice thickness are sporadic in space and time, hindering knowledge of its variability. A proxy based on stage of development data from the National Ice Center (NIC) weekly operational charts is used to create a high-resolution time series of sea ice concentration, thickness and volume for 2000-2009. Record-length mean thickness and volume of Antarctic sea ice are 66.7 cm and 7.7 x10^3 km^3. The mean growth and decay seasons in the Southern Ocean and in the Ross sector are 210 days and 155 days, but at least at least one week shorter (growth) and longer (decay) in the Amundsen/Bellingshausen sector. Over 90% of the Antarctic continental shelf is covered with sea ice for 3-5 months, and for 2 to 4 months longer periods in the Amundsen/Bellingshausen and Ross sectors. Yearly mean sea ice area (extent) in the Southern Ocean increased at a rate of 0.71 x 10^6 km^2/decade (0.70 x 10^6 km^2/decade), equivalent to a 7.7 %/decade (6.3 %/decade) rise. A comparable trend of 9.1 %/decade (8.5 %/decade) is estimated in the Ross sector, at 0.21 x 10^6 km2/decade (0.23 x 10^6 km2/decade). The opposite trend is found in the Amundsen/Bellingshausen sector: a -0.15 x 10^6 km^2/decade (-0.17 x 10^6 km^2/decade) decline, or -14.6 %/decade (-13.4 %/decade). The estimated annual increase of Antarctic sea ice thickness is 22.6 cm/decade (49.2 %/decade) and of volume is 3.78 x 10^3 km^3/decade (68.3 %/decade). The Ross sector showed similar trends for thickness, at 23.8 cm/decade (47.0 %/decade), and volume, at 1.11 x 10^3 km^3/decade (75.8 %/decade). Thickness has increased in the Amundsen/Bellingshausen sector, 20.7 cm/decade (44.8 %/decade), but with a less pronounced volume rise of 0.17 x10^3 km^3/decade (26.0 %/decade). Monthly sea ice thickness anomalies show a weak response to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index. A strong positive response is observed in 2008 when a negative a negative ENSO index compounded to a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index. Therefore the estimated increase of sea ice thickness in the Southern Ocean could be attributed to the prevailing atmospheric conditions with a positive SAM phase over the past decade.

The objective of this work was to analyze the relationship of the sea level pressure (SLP) of Tahiti and some meteorological variables over Brazil, with emphasis in the eastern coast of Northeastern Brazil (ENE). For this purpose, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets of SLP, rainfall rate, outgoing longwave (OLR), zonal and meridional wind components at 850 mb level, for a period that includes two phases of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a cold phase (1948-1976) and a warm phase (1977-1998), were used. Firstly, the variables anomaly fields were elaborated. Then, a Tahiti SLP standardized index time series (IPT) was constructed and used for correlating with the above mentioned variables anomalies over Brazil. The software GrADS was employed to constructing the variables anomaly fields and the IPT linear correlation coefficient maps. The IPT spatial correlation was performed for each variable anomalies of the cold and the warm PDO phases separately. IPT and rainfall rate correlation coefficients values, ranging from 0,3 to 0,5 , with statistically significance level up to 99%, were found over the northeastern Amazon (Trombetas river watershed) and ENE. In general, the correlation coefficients presented higher values in the PDO warm phase and the IPT performed better than other climatic indices, such as SOI, MEI and Niño 3.4, with respect to rainfall rate over Brazil. Lag correlations were performed, with the meteorological variables lagging up to 5 months the IPT. The results suggested that the IPT is a good predictor of the rainfall rate 5 months in advance, particularly in northeastern Amazon. / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / O objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar a relação da pressão atmosférica ao nível do mar (PNM) de Tahiti com algumas variáveis meteorológicas sobre o Brasil, com ênfase na costa leste de Nordeste Brasileiro (ENE). Para esse propósito, foram utilizados conjuntos de dados de reanálises do NCEP/NCAR das variáveis PNM, taxa de precipitação, radiação de onda longa emergente (ROLE) e componentes zonal e meridional do vento ao nível de 850 mb para um período que compreende duas fases da Oscilação Decadal do Pacífico (ODP), suas fases fria (1948-1976) e quente (1977-1998). Primeiramente, foram elaborados os campos de anomalias dessas variáveis. Em seguida, foi construída uma série temporal do índice de PNM de Tahiti padronizado (IPT), que foi correlacionado com as variáveis acima mencionadas sobre o Brasil. O software GrADS foi usado para construir os mapas de coeficientes de correlação entre o IPT e as anomalias das variáveis. A correlação espacial foi feita para cada variável nas fases fria e quente da ODP separadamente. Foram encontrados valores dos coeficientes de correlação entre o IPT e a taxa de precipitação variando de 0,3 a 0,5, com nível de significância de até 99%, para o nordeste da Amazônia (bacia do rio Trombetas) e o ENE. De maneira geral, os coeficientes de correlação apresentaram valores maiores durante a fase quente da ODP e o IPT teve um desempenho melhor que os outros índices climáticos, como o IOS, IME e Niño 3.4 com relação à taxa de precipitação sobre o Brasil. Correlações atrasadas ( lag ) foram feitas, com as variáveis meteorológicas atrasadas de até 5 meses com relação ao IPT. Os resultados sugeriram que o IPT é um bom previsor da taxa de precipitação com até 5 meses de antecedência, particularmente sobre o nordeste da Amazônia.