The size and trend of a population is fundamental to the assessment of its conservation status, yet cetacean abundance data are often biased and lack statistical power to detect trends. As a result, the conservation status of many species is unknown and the population-level effects of conservation pressures such as anthropogenic sound cannot be quantified. Failing to account for cetaceans that are unavailable for detection at the surface during abundance surveys will negatively bias estimates of abundance. Analysis of time-depth data revealed that pilot whale dive and surface interval durations, and availability for detection, varied with time of day, but this bias was accurately estimated using the mean dive and surface interval durations. A global analysis of cetacean density estimates compiled from multiple line-transect surveys incorporated covariates describing availability bias, and other sources of variability, to facilitate the detection of underlying temporal trends. Decadal global trends in cetacean density were detected for four species, while significant yearly ocean-scale trends were detected for six families. Exploratory analysis of data compiled from line-transect surveys found some evidence that trends in the density of minke whales and sperm whales in the northeast Atlantic varied between areas with and without seismic survey effort. However, there were insufficient data to clearly identify chronic exposure to anthropogenic sound from seismic surveys as a driver of population change. Analysis of strandings data from the UK and Ireland identified some evidence that harbour porpoise and sperm whale stranding rates were related to seismic survey effort and wind farm construction, but the results were not conclusive. Large-scale cetacean surveys provide valuable information on the density and spatial and temporal distribution of cetaceans that is vital for monitoring populations, but these surveys cannot replace dedicated studies of the population-level effects of sound on cetaceans.

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2016-07-26T12:08:42Z No. of bitstreams: 1 federicosucunzaperez.pdf: 1575469 bytes, checksum: cd3afde7a6b38a3953480ca345febe79 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2016-07-27T11:27:42Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 federicosucunzaperez.pdf: 1575469 bytes, checksum: cd3afde7a6b38a3953480ca345febe79 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-07-27T11:27:42Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 federicosucunzaperez.pdf: 1575469 bytes, checksum: cd3afde7a6b38a3953480ca345febe79 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-03-05 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / A toninha (Pontoporia blainvillei) é considerada o pequeno cetáceo mais ameaçado de extinção no oceano Atlântico Sul ocidental. Portanto, obter estimativas robustas do tamanho populacional é fundamental para garantir a conservação da espécie. O presente trabalho teve como objetivo investigar o viés de visibilidade em levantamentos aéreos da toninha e, quando possível, utilizá-lo para corrigir estimativas de abundância para essa espécie. Sobrevoos utilizando um helicóptero Robinson R44 foram realizados na Baía da Babitonga, Santa Catarina, para estimar o tempo que a toninha permanece disponível para ser detectada durante levantamentos aéreos. O tempo de superfície foi definido como o período durante o qual um grupo permaneceu disponível visualmente para observadores no helicóptero. Um ciclo superfície-mergulho correspondeu ao início de um intervalo de superfície até o início do próximo intervalo de superfície. Modelos lineares generalizados com efeitos mistos (GLMM) foram utilizados para investigar o efeito de variáveis ambientais e biológicas sobre a proporção de tempo que a toninha permanece disponível para o observador. O viés de disponibilidade foi calculado como proposto por LAAKE et al. (1997). Foram realizadas aproximadamente 15 h de observação durante os sobrevoos com helicóptero. Após a triagem dos dados, sobraram 248 ciclos de superfíce-mergulho registrados em 101 amostragens. O modelo GLMM com maior suporte incluiu apenas o tamanho de grupo como variável explanatória fixa e indicou uma correlação positiva entre a proporção de tempo que grupos de toninha permanecem disponíveis para detecção e o tamanho de grupo. O tempo médio que um grupo de toninhas permaneceu disponível e indisponível para os observadores foi de 16,10 segundos (EP = 9,74) e de 39,77 segundos (EP = 29,06), respectivamente. Assumindo um tempo de janela de 5,77 segundos, o viés de disponibilidade da toninha é de 0,38 (EP = 0,01). A proporção de toninhas disponíveis na linha de transecção que não são detectadas pelos observadores (viés de percepção) foi estimada utilizando os métodos de amostragem de distâncias combinados com marca-recaptura (MRDS) assumindo a independência pontual dos observadores. As detecções utilizadas foram registradas durante levantamentos aéreos (20112014) realizados com a mesma aeronave Aerocommander 500B e os mesmos quatro observadores sempre posicionados no mesmo lugar. Devido à diferença no formato das janelas da frente (janleas-bolha) e de trás (janelas-plana), somente detecções realizadas entre 60º-30º foram selecionadas. Para estimar o viés de percepção foram utilizadas 191 detecções. O modelo MRDS que melhor acomodou os dados teve as covariáveis distância, área (fator) e lado (fator) no componente da marca-recaptura, e distância e Beaufort (fator) no componente 12 da amostragem de distâncias. A partir deste modelo o (0) estimado foi de 0,38 (EP = 0,12). O tempo de superfície da toninha estimado a partir do helicóptero é 13,42 vezes maior do que o estimado a partir de plataformas em superfície e, assim, deve ser utilizado para corrigir o efeito do viés de disponibilidade em levantamentos aéreos. Os resultados indicaram que o viés de percepção para a toninha pode ser substancial, contudo foi constatada a necessidade de mudanças metodológicas para obter uma estimativa robusta desse parâmetro. / The franciscana dolphin (Pontoporia blainvillei) is considered the most threatened cetacean species in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, robust abundance estimates are necessary to improve conservation and management effort for this species. The goal of the present work was improve abundance estimates of franciscana dolphins by estimating correction factors to compensate for visibility bias in aerial surveys. Field experiments were made from a Robinson R44 helicopter in Babitonga Bay, Santa Catarina State, to estimate the time during which a franciscana group remained available to be detected from an aircraft. The surfacing interval was defined as the period of time during which one or more franciscanas in a group were available to the observer in the helicopter. A surface-dive cycle was defined as the period of time from the beginning of one surfacing to the next. Generalized mixed effect models (GLMMs) were used to investigate the influence of environmental and biological predictors on the proportion of time franciscana groups spend ate the surface. Availability bias was then estimated following the methods proposed by LAAKE et al. (1997). A total of 15 hours were flow during the helicopter experiment. After filtering the whole dataset 248 complete surface-dive cycles from a total of 101 samples remained. The most supported GLMM model show a positive relationship between the proportion of time at surface and the size of franciscana groups. The average time franciscana groups spent at the surface and in a dive was 16.10 (SE = 9.74) and 39.77 (SE = 29.06), respectively. Assuming a time window of 5.77 seconds, the estimated availability bias was 0.38 (SE = 0.01). The fraction of individuals available at the surface that were missed by the observers (perception bias) was estimated using mark-recapture-distance-sampling methods (MRDS) assuming point independence. Sightings were recorded through aerial surveys carried out between 2011 and 2014 with an Aerocommander 500B and the same observers, which were locaed at the same observing positions. Because of differences between front (bubble) and rear (flat) windows field of view, only sighting made between 60º-30º were used in the analysis (n = 191). The MRDS model that best fit the data had distance, area (factor), and side (factor) as covariates in the mark-recapture component, and distance and Beaufort (factor) as covariates in the distance sampling component. The estimated probability of detecting a franciscana group that was visible at the transect line was 0.38 (SE = 0.12). Results of this study showed that surfacing time recorded from helicopter were 13.42 times greater than time recorded from surface platforms. Therefore, availability bias estimates for aerial surveys of franciscana dolphins must be estimated from dive parameters computed from aerial platforms. Estimates of 14 perception bias indicated that the number of franciscana sightings missed by observers can be significant and that correction factors to compensate for this bias are necessary. However, methodological improvements in the sampling procedures are needed to estimate this parameter in a more robust way.

The purported costs of provincial autonomy in Canadian securities regulation have been well documented. Proposals for centralizing the securities regulatory regime, whether under a national regulator or through restricting the scope of provincial divergence from national standards, have consistently cited the costliness of the current regime. However, policymakers' cognitive biases lead them from time to time to overemphasize the need for decisive and swift action, which in turn causes them to abandon sound decision-making processes. Provincial autonomy ensures that policymaking with national reach is process-oriented and is more likely to be guided by facts and rational projections. Supporters of centralization discount or ignore these features of decentralization and are too sanguine about the ability of centralized regulators to adhere to process. Any further proposals for reform should properly account for these effects.

The purported costs of provincial autonomy in Canadian securities regulation have been well documented. Proposals for centralizing the securities regulatory regime, whether under a national regulator or through restricting the scope of provincial divergence from national standards, have consistently cited the costliness of the current regime. However, policymakers' cognitive biases lead them from time to time to overemphasize the need for decisive and swift action, which in turn causes them to abandon sound decision-making processes. Provincial autonomy ensures that policymaking with national reach is process-oriented and is more likely to be guided by facts and rational projections. Supporters of centralization discount or ignore these features of decentralization and are too sanguine about the ability of centralized regulators to adhere to process. Any further proposals for reform should properly account for these effects.