Anticipating future trends in land development and climate change is a constant challenge for engineers and planners who wish to effectively compensate for the resulting changes in stormwater runoff that will inevitably follow. This study is a regional attempt at predicting how predicted changes in land cover will affect runoff characteristics in a number of watersheds throughout the Delmarva Peninsula when compared to the current state. To predict changes in land cover and the associated land use, the SLEUTH model coupled with PED utilized a number of different inputs including population growth trends, existing geography, current land planning policies as well as different growth factors to predict where urban growth is most likely to occur. The model creates maps which show the approximate location of predicted growth for the year 2030. Using SLEUTH output, the magnitude of changes that can occur in runoff quality and quantity due to land cover changes were estimated in each of the seventeen representative watersheds that were chosen within the Delmarva Peninsula. Changes in water quality were calculated based on nutrient loading rates for sediment, phosphorus, and nitrogen. These nutrient loading rates correspond to different land uses within different county segments in the peninsula. The expected changes in water quantity were quantified using the United States Department of Agriculture's Natural Resources Conservation Services' TR-20 which estimated the peak flows for each watershed based on watershed's size, land cover, soils, and slope. Evaluating the magnitude of these potential changes in the Delmarva Peninsula provides an important look into the effects of increased urban development on the predominantly agrarian land mass, the majority of which drains to the Chesapeake Bay. / Master of Science

In the interest of maintaining lands to fully support the military mission, Department of Defense (DOD) installations must manage competing objectives under constraints related to mission operations, regulation and compliance requirements, and budget reductions. Silviculture offers promise for ecosystem management while providing financial means through the sale of forest products. This study used forest inventory and bald eagle nest site data to investigate the potential effects of silviculture on bald eagle nesting habitat at Naval Support Facility Indian Head. Mahalanobis distance was used to define and classify preferred nesting substrate. Silviculture was simulated using the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) to assess forest nesting substrate, economic yields and the tradeoffs between these two objectives. An alternative substrate model based on cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) and Boolean logic allowed evaluation of the strengths and weaknesses of the Mahalanobis distance method. The Mahalanobis distance model provided greater relative fit to the sample of nest sites compared to the CDF model but had lower discriminating power between presence and absence data. Simulation results indicate that top performing silvicultural treatments resulted in greater substrate availability compared to no-action over equal time periods. Uneven-age management was shown as the best system for providing nesting substrate as well as favorable economic yields in hardwood stands. Results also stress the importance of thinning in providing future nesting substrate and maintaining preferred substrate late in the rotation. Economic and habitat tradeoffs varied by treatment, suggesting that optimum prescriptions could be identified to provide for both objectives and minimize tradeoffs. / Master of Science

The Chesapeake Bay states continue to struggle to achieve the water quality goals set out in the Chesapeake Bay Agreement. While policy efforts to combat eutrophication tend to focus on reducing nutrient loads at point and nonpoint sources, waters of the Bay can be improved through an increase in the assimilative capacity of the ecosystem, which would remove nutrients (called nutrient assimilation services) from ambient waters. The filtering capacity of the native oyster, C.virginica, is a widely recognized means to enhance water quality. With an increase in the number of oysters in the Bay, and no decrease in wild stocks, oyster aquaculture has the potential to also increase the nutrient assimilation capacity of the ambient environment. Yet the expansion of commercial aquaculture in the Bay has been limited by financial constraints. Increased water quality services might be forthcoming if oyster aquaculturists received financial compensation for the nutrient removal services they provide. Based on previous research, this study develops a procedure for estimating annual nutrient removal from a given size oyster aquaculture facility. Next, a firm level bio-economic simulation model was constructed to estimate the amount of compensation needed by a commercial oyster aquaculture firm to make a new investment in oyster aquaculture. The amount of compensation needed is interpreted as the cost of providing nutrient removal by oyster aquaculture. Results indicate that under many circumstances, nutrient removal services can be provided by oyster aquaculture facilities at a per unit cost comparable with some non-point and point source nutrient removal technologies. Finally, a select number of funding resources were identified as potential outlets for creating payments and demand for nutrient assimilation services. / Master of Science

Master of Science

Ruppia maritima is a euryhaline hydrophyte found as a cosmopolitan inhabitant of shallow water habitats. In Chesapeake Bay, Ruppia maritima L. (Potamogetonaceae) and Zostera marina L. (Zosteraceae) form an important submerged aquatic vegetation community. Research in Chesapeake Bay has focused primarily on Zostera marina. Ruppia maritima occurs abundantly in large monospecific stands as well as in mixed stands with Zostera marina. Recent surveys have shown that natural revegetation in some areas has occurred and Ruppia maritima was the primary colonizer in the natural revegetation of some areas. The objective of this study was to investigate the reproductive biology of Ruppia maritima including the possible function of seed banks and vegetative and sexual propagules on the colonization of new habitats, and the plant's ecological impact around Goodwin Islands, York County, Virginia. Ruppia maritima rapidly colonized experimental plots that have historically been mixed beds or have been monospecific beds of Zostera marina because it utilized a combination of sexual and asexual reproduction. Ruppia maritima colonized plots by rapid rhizome growth. Seed reserves were probably more important in re-establishing populations than in "maintenance" of populations. Ruppia produces energy costly Post-reproductive shoots. These shoots which produce inflorescences (and then seeds) remain viable after seeds mature and can detach, disperse, and colonize sites. First year plants were not found to produce an inflorescence. This is significant in the establishment of new habitats. If a fledgling population is distressed by poor water quality or sediment disturbance, the possibility of producing seeds seems to be eliminated unless the plants have been established for one full growing season. This may explain the ephemeral nature of some Ruppia populations. / Ph. D.

No / In an earlier study, stress lines in primate teeth were found to occur on a recurrent basis, probably corresponding to seasonal fluctuations in environmental parameters, such as food availability (Macho et al., J. Hum. Evol. 30 (1996) 57¿70). In the present study this approach was extended to the study of teeth of extant and extinct mammals, with the specific aim to determine the pattern of seasonality at the Australopithecus anamensis-bearing site at Allia Bay, Kenya. It was found that extant and extinct species, who share similar dietary/ecological adaptations, are comparable in their patterns of stress. Typical browsers/mixed feeders were found to exhibit three recurrent disturbances per year, whereas grazers usually only exhibit two. The average spacing between lines is also comparable between extant and extinct species. Hence, while the severity and predictability of the seasons probably fluctuated during crucial periods of hominin evolution, there is little doubt that all hominins lived in a seasonal environment. At Allia Bay, the pattern of stress lines found in mammals suggests that the environmental conditions in which A. anamensis lived may have been comparable to those found in the Masai Mara today.

Over the last century the Chesapeake Bay has been plagued by pollution, disease and overharvesting of its resources. As a result, the Bay has been the focus of substantial research and the beneficiary of numerous environmental programs. Previous work has suggested that people are willing to pay for improved water quality in the Chesapeake Bay. For policymakers, the key challenge is to determine how to allocate scarce funds across alternative regulatory and subsidy programs. This thesis investigates three new research questions that relate to the policymaker's problem. First, does WTP for a given water quality improvement depend on the process used to obtain that improvement? Second, does introducing a publicly funded program to improve water quality crowd out private donations to charitable organizations? Third, could oysters in the Chesapeake Bay be successfully marketed as a "green" good? The results from an attribute based choice experiment survey indicate that individuals value process and that they have a higher value for water quality improvement processes that include positive externalities such as increasing oyster populations and planting acres of tall grasses. The results also imply that the new water quality program will crowd out a small portion of private donations to charitable organizations. For example, a $1 tax increase for a new water quality program would crowd out approximately $0.02 of private donations to Chesapeake Bay organizations. Finally, results from a contingent valuation exercise suggest that oyster consumers are willing to pay a significant premium for ecolabeled oysters. Specifically, consumers are willing to pay a 58% premium for half-shell oysters. / Master of Science

The movement patterns, range areas and energetics of canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria) wintering in the upper Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, were investigated. Eighty-seven juvenile female canvasbacks were radio-tracked between 30 December 1988 and 25 March 1989. Diurnal time and energy budgets were constructed for a time of day-season matrix for canvasbacks using riverine and main bay habitats. Canvasbacks were very active at night, making regular and often lengthy crepuscular movements (x = 11.7 km) from near shore habitats during the day to off shore habitats at night. Movement patterns were similar for birds using habitats on the eastern and western shores of the Bay. Canvasbacks had extensive home ranges averaging 14,286 ha, and used an average of 1.97 core areas. Sleeping was the predominant diurnal behavior. Telemetry indicated that canvasbacks actively fed at night. Canvasbacks spent more time in active behaviors (e.g. swimming, alert) on the eastern shore than on the the western shore. Similarly, canvasbacks were more active during daytime hours at locations where artificial feeding occurred. Behavioral patterns were only weakly correlated with weather patterns. Canvasbacks appeared to reduce energy expenditure in mid-winter by reducing distances moved, reducing feeding activities and increasing the amount of time spent sleeping. This pattern was observed even though 1988-89 mid-winter weather conditions were very mild. / Master of Science

This paper presents the results of a pilot landscape-scale seismic survey undertaken in Apalachee Bay, Florida, across a submerged landscape that contains dozens of Pre-Contact sites. In addition to the goals of improving the geophysical and remote sensing ground model for this submerged landscape, the survey also sought to undertake the first independent scientific test of the contentious ‘HALD’ methodology, an acoustic resonance method that it is claimed to identify knapped lithic artefacts at and/ or below the seabed through the identification of distinct ‘haystack’ responses. The results of this work indicate that the HALD method, as currently described, produces results that could not be scientifically replicated in this survey. We conclude that any HALD ‘haystack’ signal should therefore not be considered as an example of detection of human-modified lithic material but rather as a geophysical anomaly that requires additional constraints before it can be used to reliably identify human-modified lithic materials. Thus, although the authors note that laboratory studies have successfully produced an acoustic signal in human-modified lithics, the field-based methods remain yet to be reliably determined. In addition to these results, the landscape mapping survey also recorded valuable information on buried and previously unrecorded landscape features that have archaeological significance and that may guide future site prospection. We therefore conclude that despite the results of the HALD test, the well-preserved submerged landscape of Apalachee Bay region provides a highly useful testing ground for methods that can be deployed elsewhere globally. / UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) for the Life on the Edge Project (LOTE) via a UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship (Grant No. MR/W007797/1).

Grazing pressure is important in structuring plant communities, particularly in aquatic environments. Eelgrass (Zostera marina), a keystone species in estuaries across North America, is experiencing widespread population declines. As a keystone species, eelgrass provides numerous important functions, including: 1) water filtration, 2) sediment stabilization, 3) providing refuge and nursery habitat for numerous species, and 4) carbon sequestration. Benefits which could be lost if eelgrass beds continue to diminish. California has experienced some of the greatest eelgrass declines, and Morro Bay, CA experienced a 96% decrease in eelgrass from 2007 to 2017. Most studies to date have examined bottom-up stressors, such as sedimentation and nutrient load, but little research has been done on top-down effects. Brant geese (Branta bernicla) are specialist grazers of eelgrass, feeding voraciously on it in the winter and spring months to build energy stores for their flight to summer breeding grounds in Alaska. Simulated brant grazing studies conducted in Humboldt, CA indicate brant might play an important role in maintaining the health and productivity of eelgrass communities through selective grazing and overcompensation – where plants purportedly grow more in response to herbivory. While there has been some experimental evidence of overcompensation, the idea is not well supported overall. Research was conducted on eelgrass beds in Morro Bay over the 2018-19 brant season. We hypothesized that: 1) brant grazing would decrease growth and overall condition of eelgrass; and 2) brant would selectively graze younger, nitrogen-rich blades. Four study sites were established, each with four open plots that allowed for natural brant grazing (treatment), and four enclosed plots that excluded brant and prevent grazing (control). Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) pipe was used to create cage-like structures around small plots of eelgrass, thus excluding brant, and exclosure effectiveness was confirmed with rigorous observations. Data on eelgrass growth and brant activity was gathered regularly at each site. We predicted that: 1) eelgrass open to brant grazing would show decreases in blade length, stipe density, and other growth and condition proxies before and after brant season when compared with eelgrass protected from brant grazing; and 2) eelgrass grazed by brant would have more epiphytes because brant selectively graze younger blades and leave older blades that accumulate more epiphytes. There were no significant differences in growth or condition of eelgrass between grazed (treatment) and ungrazed (control) plots. Brant activity was detected at each study site and brant exclosures were effective, with no evidence of brant grazing found in control plots. There was no difference in epiphyte load between grazed and ungrazed plots. The findings of this study are contrary the only previous studies examining the relationship between brant grazing and eelgrass growth. Our study suggests brant do not have a significant effect on eelgrass in Morro Bay.