Meteorological measurements from the research station at Östergarnsholm in the Baltic Sea between 1995 and 2001 are used to evaluate the ERA-40 data base over the Baltic Sea. This includes comparisons of mean parameters and turbulent fluxes. The statistics concern all the data available when the measuring site was exposed to open sea conditions, and includes about 1500 hours of data. Seasonal data is compared as well. Regarding all the mean parameters compared, ERA-40 is partly in line with the results from the measurements, with various scatter. Temperature is too warm, wind speed is lower as well as relative humidity and sea surface temperature is systematically overestimated. The heat fluxes are generally overestimated by ERA-40 when compared to heat fluxes calculated by the bulk formulae, sensible heat flux with a mean value of 5W/m2 and latent heat flux with 9W/m2. The overestimation is larger for high fluxes and during high wind speeds. Friction velocity is too large in ERA-40. There are indications that the ERA-40 data over the Baltic Sea is somewhat influenced by land. A second objective for this study is to detect possible trends occurring at Östergarnsholm over a long term perspective with the aid of the complete 44 year long data set. An increasing trend in temperature can be observed, which is in agreement with other long term temperature series in the region. / Sammanfattning av ”En undersökning gällande noggrannheten och trender i ERA-40 över Östersjön” Meteorologisk mätdata från forskningsstationen på Östergarnsholm i Östersjön åren 1995 till 2001 används för att evaluera databasen ERA-40 över Östersjön. Granskningen utförs genom jämförelser av medelparametrar och turbulenta flöden. Statistiken omfattar hela den datamängd som fanns tillgänglig då havsförhållanden antas råda på Östergarnsholm. Årstidsstatistik är också representerad. ERA-40 stämmer delvis överens med de uppmätta värdena, spridningen varierar för olika parametrar. Temperaturen är generellt för varm, vindhastigheten såväl som relativa fuktigheten är för låg medan vattentemperaturen överskattas systematiskt. Värmeflödena är i allmänhet överskattade i jämförelse med flöden beräknade med bulkformeln, det sensibla värmeflödet med 5W/m2 i medeltal och det latenta med 9W/m2. Modellen överskattar höga flöden mer, vilka främst är representerade vid höga vindhastigheter. Friktionshastigheten är mestadels alltför hög i ERA-40. Ett andra syfte med denna undersökning är att med hjälp av hela den 44 år långa dataserien finna eventuella trender över Östergarnsholm. Temperaturen visar en ökande trend vilket tycks stämma överens med andra långtidsserier i Sverige.

<p>This paper makes an analysis of risk and risk management of Swedish cod fishery in the Baltic Sea. The purpose is to describe differences in risk perception between fishery stakeholders and the consequences these imply for political decisions. A literature study was undertaken at the startup-phase to give the study a valid background and interviews with four actors in the fishing industry was conducted. The chosen actors are: The Federation of Swedish Fishermen (SFR), Swedish Board of Fisheries, WWF and one researcher. The results indicate two causes for the cods’ positive trend, good natural conditions and a better fishing administrationin the Baltic Sea area. Risk perception is on the surface practically the same allover but a deeper analysis identifies differences. The four actors all point at different parts ofthe improved fishing-administration as most important. Improved fishing-administration during the 21th century is a fact but not good enough. As long as fishing quotas are not raised considerably during the next few years the Baltic Sea cod should be on the rise and reach biologically safe population. The most important cause for the improved fishing administration is that more actors can take part in the political decisions and that ICES’ biological recommendations are complied with to a larger extent than before.</p> / <p>Uppsatsen behandlar ämnet risk och riskhantering av det svenska torskfisket i Östersjön. Syftet är att redogöra för skillnaderna i riskuppfattning hos aktörer inom fiskenäringen sam tvilka konsekvenser skillnaderna har för de politiska besluten. En litteraturstudie har gjorts föratt ge en kunskapsbakgrund inför intervjuerna med fyra fiskeriaktörer. De utvalda aktörerna är SFR (Svenska Fiskares Riksförbund), Fiskeriverket, WWF och en representant förforskarvärlden. Resultaten i studien visar att orsakerna till torskens förbättrade status är två, en god naturlig förökning samt en bättre förvaltning av fiskeresurserna. Riskuppfattningen skiljer sig inte mycket på ytan mellan aktörerna. En djupare analys identifierar dock skillnadersom inte är lika tydliga vid en första anblick. Aktörerna betonar olika delar av den förbättringsom skett i fiskeförvaltningen, troligtvis beroende på vilken bakgrund de har. Fiskeförvaltningen har blivit bättre under 2000-talet men bestånden är ännu inte betryggande goda. Så länge inga drastiska höjningar av fiskekvoterna sker de närmare åren och beståndenfortsätter öka är risken liten för ännu en kollaps för Östersjötorsken. Den viktigaste orsaken till den förbättrade förvaltningen är att fler aktörer är inblandade i beslutsprocessen och att ICES rekommendationer efterföljs i högre grad i de politiska besluten.</p>

This paper makes an analysis of risk and risk management of Swedish cod fishery in the Baltic Sea. The purpose is to describe differences in risk perception between fishery stakeholders and the consequences these imply for political decisions. A literature study was undertaken at the startup-phase to give the study a valid background and interviews with four actors in the fishing industry was conducted. The chosen actors are: The Federation of Swedish Fishermen (SFR), Swedish Board of Fisheries, WWF and one researcher. The results indicate two causes for the cods’ positive trend, good natural conditions and a better fishing administrationin the Baltic Sea area. Risk perception is on the surface practically the same allover but a deeper analysis identifies differences. The four actors all point at different parts ofthe improved fishing-administration as most important. Improved fishing-administration during the 21th century is a fact but not good enough. As long as fishing quotas are not raised considerably during the next few years the Baltic Sea cod should be on the rise and reach biologically safe population. The most important cause for the improved fishing administration is that more actors can take part in the political decisions and that ICES’ biological recommendations are complied with to a larger extent than before. / Uppsatsen behandlar ämnet risk och riskhantering av det svenska torskfisket i Östersjön. Syftet är att redogöra för skillnaderna i riskuppfattning hos aktörer inom fiskenäringen sam tvilka konsekvenser skillnaderna har för de politiska besluten. En litteraturstudie har gjorts föratt ge en kunskapsbakgrund inför intervjuerna med fyra fiskeriaktörer. De utvalda aktörerna är SFR (Svenska Fiskares Riksförbund), Fiskeriverket, WWF och en representant förforskarvärlden. Resultaten i studien visar att orsakerna till torskens förbättrade status är två, en god naturlig förökning samt en bättre förvaltning av fiskeresurserna. Riskuppfattningen skiljer sig inte mycket på ytan mellan aktörerna. En djupare analys identifierar dock skillnadersom inte är lika tydliga vid en första anblick. Aktörerna betonar olika delar av den förbättringsom skett i fiskeförvaltningen, troligtvis beroende på vilken bakgrund de har. Fiskeförvaltningen har blivit bättre under 2000-talet men bestånden är ännu inte betryggande goda. Så länge inga drastiska höjningar av fiskekvoterna sker de närmare åren och beståndenfortsätter öka är risken liten för ännu en kollaps för Östersjötorsken. Den viktigaste orsaken till den förbättrade förvaltningen är att fler aktörer är inblandade i beslutsprocessen och att ICES rekommendationer efterföljs i högre grad i de politiska besluten.

This study was conducted with the purpose of furthering the knowledge of collisionsinvolving Swedish icebreakers in the Baltic Sea. It strived to identify the causes and directeffects of this type of collision. It also sought to establish if regulations and operationalguidelines, governing Swedish icebreakers and icebreaker assistance, were sufficient and ifthey were being adhered to.The method used to accomplish this was a qualitative literature study of all data regardingSwedish icebreaker collisions from the archives of the Swedish Maritime Administration andthe Swedish Transport Agency. Several accident investigation authorities from around theworld assisted in developing a method for processing the raw data.Having processed and examined the data the prevalence of different causes contributing to thecollisions could be established. All collisions occurred during icebreaker assistance. It wasfound that the all encompassing cause of the collisions was the difficulties of evaluating theice conditions and the behavior that difficult ice conditions necessitated the vessels to adopt.It was further made clear that the direct effects for the vessels, their crew and the environmentwere of limited severity. It was also concluded that the regulations and operational guidelinesgoverning Swedish icebreaker assistance, were generally being adhered to, and weresatisfactory in enabling a sufficiently safe and effective icebreaker assistance service. / Denna studie genomfördes i syfte att utöka den akademiska kunskapen om kollisioner sominvolverar svenska isbrytare i Östersjön. Den ämnade identifiera orsakerna och de omedelbaraeffekterna av dessa kollisioner. Vidare sökte den fastslå huruvida regelverk och riktlinjer förden svenska isbrytartjänsten var tillräckliga och om de efterlevdes.Studien genomfördes som en kvalitativ litteraturstudie av all data, med anknytning tillisbrytarkollisioner, som fanns tillgänglig i Sjöfartsverkets och Transportstyrelsens arkiv. Ettflertal utländska myndigheter som utreder olyckor assisterade vid framtagandet av modellenför bearbetning av datan.Efter att ha bearbetat och undersökt datan kunde förekomsten av olika bidragande orsaker tillisbrytarkollisionerna slås fast. Alla kollisioner inträffade under isbrytarassistans. Det stodklart att den övergripande orsaken var svårigheten i att utvärdera isförhållandena och deåtgärder fartygen tvingas vidta för att kunna ta sig fram genom isen. Vidare fastslogs att deomedelbara effekterna, för såväl fartyg som besättning och miljö, inte var förödande utan avbegränsad karaktär. Det fastslogs även att de regelverk och riktlinjer som styr den svenskaisbrytarverksamheten överlag efterlevdes och var tillräckliga för att säkerställa entillfredställande säker och effektiv isbrytartjänst.

Human-induced eutrophication is indirectly affecting aquatic organisms by altering their environment. This brings on altered selective pressures and could thereby cause changes in the genetic composition of exposed populations. Since anthropogenic environmental changes are usually occurring at a much higher rate than naturally occurring changes, they force populations to adapt to the new conditions faster than normal. Here, I have studied populations of three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) from four eutrophicated and four adjacent reference sites, along the coast of Finland, to investigate if this species has responded genetically to the human-induced eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. For this purpose I used amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) and found distinctions in genetic composition between the two habitats, as well as similarities between populations from eutrophicated sites. This suggests a similar genetic response to eutrophicated conditions by stickleback populations from different geographical areas. Moreover I found a distinct geographic structure among three-spined sticklebacks in the Baltic Sea.

Human-induced eutrophication is indirectly affecting aquatic organisms by altering their environment. This brings on altered selective pressures and could thereby cause changes in the genetic composition of exposed populations. Since anthropogenic environmental changes are usually occurring at a much higher rate than naturally occurring changes, they force populations to adapt to the new conditions faster than normal. Here, I have studied populations of three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) from four eutrophicated and four adjacent reference sites, along the coast of Finland, to investigate if this species has responded genetically to the human-induced eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. For this purpose I used amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) and found distinctions in genetic composition between the two habitats, as well as similarities between populations from eutrophicated sites. This suggests a similar genetic response to eutrophicated conditions by stickleback populations from different geographical areas. Moreover I found a distinct geographic structure among three-spined sticklebacks in the Baltic Sea.

Issued also as thesis, Kiel, 1963. / Offa-Bücher, Bd. 19.

Sustainable management of natural resources requires an in-depth understanding of the interplay between social and ecological change. Linked social-ecological systems (SES) have been described as complex adaptive systems (CAS), which mean that they are irreducible, exhibit nonlinear dynamics, have interactions across scales and are uncertain and unpredictable. These propositions have however rarely been tested empirically, in part due to a lack of methodological approaches and suitable datasets. In this thesis, I address this methodological and empirical gap in a study of long-term change of Baltic Sea fisheries. In Paper I, we develop the concept of fishing style through integrating multivariate statistical analysis and in-depth interviews. We thereby identify an intermediate level of detail for analyzing social-ecological dynamics, embracing the case specific and context dependent approaches of the social sciences with the generalizable and quantifiable approaches from the natural sciences. In Paper II we ask: How has the Baltic Sea fishery been regulated over time, and can we identify a way to quantify regulations in order to be able to analyze their effects? We analyze all regulatory changes in Sweden since 1995 with a new methodology and conclude that there is a clear trend towards increased micro-management. In Paper III, we use the fishing styles developed in Paper I and examine how they have changed over time. We relate these changes to the dynamics of regulation (Paper II), as well as to the dynamics of fish stocks and prices. We conclude that regulation has been the main driving force for observed changes, but also that regulation has prompted significant specialization and decline in flexibility for fishers over time. These changes are unintended consequences and may represent a looming risk for the long-term sustainability of this social-ecological system. Paper IV zooms in on a particular fishery, the pelagic trawl fishery for sprat Sprattus sprattus and Atlantic herring Clupea harengus, mainly targeted for the production of fishmeal and fish oil. Suspicions of non-compliance in this fishery motivated us to apply a statistical approach where we used socioeconomic data to re-estimate the historical catches in this fishery (a novel approach to catch-reconstruction estimates). We found that catches had been significantly underreported over several years, with consequences for the quality of stock assessments and management. The study underlines the importance of understanding linked social, economic and ecological dynamics for sustainable outcomes. Finally, Paper V takes a longer historical look at the Baltic Sea fishery, using regionally disaggregated data from 1914-2009 (96 years), which were analyzed with a novel type of nonlinear statistical time-series methods (Empirical Dynamical Modeling). Our analysis explicitly recognized the potential nonlinear dynamics of SES and showed high predictability across regions of catches and prices of cod Gadus morhua and herring. The signal was generally nonlinear and predictability decreased strongly with time, suggesting that the dynamics of this SES are ever-changing. To our knowledge, this is the first long-term analysis of a SES using empirical data and methods developed from the CAS field of research. The main contributions of this thesis are the integrated analysis of social and ecological data, the development of novel methods for understanding SES dynamics, insights on the ever-changing nature of CAS and the quantitative analysis of management outcomes. Future work should focus on assessing the generality of these findings across a broad range of SES and evaluate alternative governance approaches given the complexity and uncertainty of SES suggested by this thesis. / <p>At the time of the doctoral defense, the following paper was unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 5: Manuscript.</p>

In this study, an analysis of upwelling and biological activities impact on the seawater pCO2 variability was done to improve the knowledge about the pCO2 variability in seawater in the Baltic Sea. During upwelling activity, CO2 rich waters are upwelled to the surface. This influences air-sea CO2 flux and thus the net uptake/emission of CO2 by the sea. pCO2 and SST measurements from a SAMI sensor, located at the Östergarnsholm site in the Baltic Sea, and SST satellite data, was used to identify periods affected by upwelling activity. A strong variability due to upwelling activity was observed on the pCO2 concentration. The frequency of upwelling activity at the Östergarnsholm site was estimated to be around 20 % of the time from May-November. The relationship between pCO2 and SST during upwelling activity was found to depend of the month. In November, this relationship can be used to characterise the effect of upwelling, but for the other months there are no differences between the none- upwelling periods and the upwelling periods. Another type of period, characterized by a diurnal variability of pCO2 mainly driven by the biological effect, was also observed. / I denna studie undersöktes hur uppvällning och biologisk aktivitet påverkar koncentrationen av pCO2 i havet. Detta gjordes för att få ökad förståelse för korttidsvariationen av pCO2 i Östersjön. Under uppvällning pressas CO2-rikt vatten upp till ytan. Detta påverkar flödet av CO2 mellan hav och atmosfär och då även det totala upptaget/utsläppet av CO2 från havet. I studien användes pCO2 och SST mätningar från en SAMI-sensor, placerad vid Östergarnsholm i Östersjön, och en del satellitdata för att identifiera perioder påverkade av uppvällning. Det observerades att uppvällnings inverkan på koncentrationen av pCO2 varierar kraftigt. Frekvensen av uppvällning vid Östergarnsholm uppskattades vara ungefär 20 % av tiden under maj-november. Relationen mellan SST och pCO2 under perioder med uppvällning observerades variera från maj-november. I november kan denna relation användas till att uppskatta effekten av uppvällning men under de andra månaderna är relationen under uppvällning för lika relationen under icke- uppvällning. Även en annan slags perioder observerades; under dessa perioder observerades en dygnscykel av pCO2, driven av biologisk aktivitet.

Žiemojantys vandens paukščiai Lietuvos pajūryje 2006, 2007 ir 2008 m. žiemojimo laikotarpiu tirti naudojant standartinę apskaitų nuo kranto metodiką. Gausiausiai stebėtos rūšys buvo: nuodėgulė, ledinė antis, didysis dančiasnapis, ausuotasis kragas, klykuolė, sibirinė gaga. Darbe yra pateikiama 2006, 2007 ir 2008 metų žiemos stebėjimo sezonų duomenų analizė, kurioje yra nagrinėjama vandens paukščių rūšinė sudėtis tiek 2006, 2007 ir 2008 metais atskirai, bei tarp atskirų teritorijų skirtingais metais. Palangos priekrantė 2006, 2007 ir 2008 metų stebėjimo sezonais buvo svarbi didžiųjų dančiasnapių, ausuotųjų kragų, klykuolių, ledinių ančių ir sibirinių gagų susitelkimo vieta. Priekrantė ties Kuršių nerija 2006–2007 metų stebėjimo sezonais buvo svarbi žiemojančioms nuodėgulėms, ledinėms antims ir ausuotiesiems kragams. Taip pat nagrinėjau žiemojančių vandens paukščių pasiskirstymą Lietuvos Baltijos jūros priekrantėje ties Palanga, bei ties Kuršių nerija tais pačiais, bei skirtinagais tyrimų sezonais. Ledinių ančių pagrindinės sankaupos stebėtos ties Giruliais ir mažesnė dalis iki Palangos tilto, nuodėgulių - ties Juodkrante ir Smiltyne. Klykuolių didesnės sankaupos stebėtos tarp Karklės ir Palangos tilto. Ausuotųjų kragų pasiskirstymas priekrantėje sąlyginai tolygus tiek ties Kuršių nerija, tiek ties Palanga. / Wintering wterbirds in Lithuanian costal waters were investigated in 2006–2007–2008 standart land-based surveys were used. Abuot 11900 in 2006, 6600 in 2007 and 4192 in 2008 waterbirds were cuonted. 20 species were recorded wintering in Lithuanian inshore waters of the Baltic sea. Velvet Scoter, Long-tailed Duck, Goosander, Great Crested Grebe, Goldeneye, Steller‘s Eider were the most numeruos species. Analysis of the wintering waterbird species composition in diferent years in the same study site and in different years in the same site in 2006–2007–2008 wintering seasons is presented. The coastal waters off the Palanga were important for wintering Long-tailed Ducks, Goosanders, Great Crested Grebes, Goldeneyes, Steller‘s Eiders in 2006–2007–2008 seasons. The coastal waters off the Curonian Spit were important for wintering Velvet Scoters, Long-tailed Ducks, Great Crested Grebes. Distribution of wintering waterbirds in the Lithuanian inshore waters in 2006–2007–2008 wintering seasons was also analysed. The greatest concentrations of Long-tailed Ducks were observed near the Giruliai and smaller numbers – all the way to Palanga bridge in the north, Velvet Scoters – between Juodkrante and Smiltyne. The greatest concentrations of Goldeneyes were observed between Karkle and the Palanga bridge. Great Crested Grebes were rather evenly distributed along the coastal waters both off the Palanga and the Curonian Spit coasts.